Breaking down the last 16 (men's singles)

[helterskelter]

On another thread, I've detailed the ages of the last 16. In doing so, I've noticed a couple of other features of the 16 that I will point out here.

1. The last 16 by age:
24 or less: 2
25-29: 7
30-34: 7
35 or more: 0

2. The last 16 by seeding:
13 of the top 16 seeds are through to the last 16.
The exceptions are Rafael Nadal (#5), Kevin Anderson (#11), and Marin Cilic (#12).
Their places have been taken by, respectively, Andrey Kuznetsov (the sole non-seed left), Gael Monfils (#23), and Roberto Bautista Agut (#24).

3. The last 16 by nationality and continent:
France: 3 (Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils)
Spain: 2 (Roberto Bautista-Agut, David Ferrer)
Switzerland: 2 (Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka)
Serbia: 1 (Novak Djokovic)
Japan: 1 (Kei Nishikori)
Belgium: 1 (David Goffin)
Czech Republic: 1 (Tomas Berdych)
Russia: 1 (Andrey Kuznetsov)
Canada: 1 (Milos Raonic)
USA: 1 (John Isner)
Australia: 1 (Bernard Tomic)
Great Britain: 1 (Andy Murray)

Europe: 12
North America: 2
Asia: 1
Australasia: 1

4. The last 16 by prior Australian Open performance:
Former winners: 3 (Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka)
Former finalists: 2 (Tsonga, Murray)
Former semi-finalists: 2 (Berdych, Ferrer)
Former quarter-finalists: 3 (Simon, Nishikori, Raonic)
Former 4th-rounders: 4 (Bautista Agut, Monfils, Isner, Tomic)
First time in the last 16: 2 (Goffin, Kuznetsov) [Both of them had previously not been past round 2]

 

[Winners or Errors]

So, basically, the men's side has predictably followed the seedings. Not surprising.

 

[helterskelter]

Yes, these days, having 13 of 16 seeds in the 4th round isn't rare. When I was first following tennis in the late 80s, it used to be more usual for there to be 7-10 seeds in the last 16. (Of course, that was rendered more likely by the fact that there were only 16 seeds. But note that if I counted seeds #17-32, I would say that there were 15 of 16 seeds in the 4th round).

 

[Bukmeikara]

With Belinda Bencic on the raise Switzerland does seems like a top tennis nation at the moment.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Good work Op again.

 

[helterskelter]

Just noticed that I should have checked whether Andrey Kuznetsov is European or Asian. He's from Balashikha, which is in Moscow Oblast. I *think* that that's in Europe. The city of Moscow is certainly in Europe, but I'm not sure whether the entire province is. Anyway, unless someone corrects me, I'll leave the OP as it is and count him as European.

 

[veroniquem]

So, basically, the men's side has predictably followed the seedings. Not surprising.

Yeah, Nadal is the only top 8 who didn't make it to 4th round

 

[Harry_Wild]

Russia is on the continent of Asia!

 

[helterskelter]

Yeah, Nadal is the only top 8 who didn't make it to 4th round

That's true. These days, Nadal plays as though he were the oldest member of the top 8, even though he's 4 years, 10 months younger than Federer and 4 years, 2 months younger than Ferrer (and 1 year, 3 months younger than Wawrinka, and nine months younger than Berdych).

 

[uscwang]

Novak, Murray, Stan, and Fed are all playing very well.
Stan and Murray are pretty much in the semis already.
Tsonga, Nishikori, and Berdych can be tricky for Novak and Fed.

 

[veroniquem]

That's true. These days, Nadal plays as though he were the oldest member of the top 8, even though he's 4 years, 10 months younger than Federer and 4 years, 2 months younger than Ferrer (and 1 year, 3 months younger than Wawrinka, and nine months younger than Berdych).

Man, so many "old" people in the top 8! 2 players in their mid-thirties, no player 25 or younger and only 1 player younger than 28!! (Nishi and he's #7)
Still waiting for players like Raonic, Dimitrov and Tomic to make their move and still looking like I may have to wait forever... The younger batch has shown remarkable consistency at being a never-ending disappointment.

 

[helterskelter]

Man, so many "old" people in the top 8! 2 players in their mid-thirties, no player 25 or younger and only 1 player younger than 28!! (Nishi and he's #7)
Still waiting for players like Raonic, Dimitrov and Tomic to make their move and still looking like I may have to wait forever... The younger batch has shown remarkable consistency at being a never-ending disappointment.

Unless a younger player breaks through in the next four months, on the first day of Roland Garros - Novak's birthday - nine of the top 10 and 11 of the top 12 will be 29 or older!

That said, Raonic looked very good to me yesterday. I'd say he's got at least a 40% chance of beating Wawrinka, and that, if he does so, he should make the semis here. Murray is probably a tougher proposition for him than Wawrinka, but making the semis would put Raonic back up to #11.

(Mind you, Raonic is 0-4 against Wawrinka, and 3-3 against Murray, so I may be off in my assessment of those match ups. It just seems to me that Raonic will struggle against a player whose defense is more difficult to break down and who returns well).

 

[PrinceMoron]

Russia is on the continent of Asia!

It's on the planet Putin.

 

[Mainad]

With Belinda Bencic on the raise Switzerland does seems like a top tennis nation at the moment.

I think it's been a top tennis nation for the past 2 decades with multiple Slam champions in Hingis, Federer and Wawrinka!

 

[Mainad]

Just noticed that I should have checked whether Andrey Kuznetsov is European or Asian. He's from Balashikha, which is in Moscow Oblast. I *think* that that's in Europe. The city of Moscow is certainly in Europe, but I'm not sure whether the entire province is. Anyway, unless someone corrects me, I'll leave the OP as it is and count him as European.

Moscow Oblast lies west of the Ural Mountains which are the tradtional border between Europe and Asia so Kuznetsov is definitely European.

 

[Mainad]

Russia is on the continent of Asia!

It straddles both continents with the Ural Mountains as the tradtional dividing line.

 

[ruerooo]

Nadal plays as though he were the oldest member of the top 8, even though he's 4 years, 10 months younger than Federer and 4 years, 2 months younger than Ferrer (and 1 year, 3 months younger than Wawrinka, and nine months younger than Berdych).

He went pro earlier than any of them, I think, except for Roger. He was 15 when he turned officially professional.

So even though he's younger than a lot of them in chronological years, he is actually older in "years on tour".

 

[helterskelter]

He went pro earlier than any of them, I think, except for Roger. He was 15 when he turned officially professional.

So even though he's younger than a lot of them in chronological years, he is actually older in "years on tour".

True, and he's had a lot of injuries. Ferrer has played 41 more matches than him, but that's not a huge number.

 

[veroniquem]

There are only 10 players in the top 50 that are 25 or younger and none of them are in the top 10. They have won 20 250 between them, 2 500 and of course 0 tier 1. Some new guard we have there :
14- Raonic (25)
16- Goffin (25)
17- Tomic (23)
20- Thiem (22)
21- Sock (23)
28- Dimitrov (24)
30- Kyrgios (20)
39- Pospisil (25)
40- Coric (19)
50- Vesely (22)

Raonic is a walking serve- same as Isner- and we all know the limitations of that type of play in this day and age. Dimitrov was mega hyped too soon and since then has kept regressing (his most memorable achievement remaining his fling with sugarpova)
The rest seems pretty lackluster. I just wish the Aussies (Tomic and KG) would get their act together because they are the only 2 with potential to do some damage on the majority surface (hard court) but they both appear like major basket cases early on, and that's putting it mildly.
Even in the 51-100 category, the 25 years old and younger represent a minority (19 out of 50)
The (current) tennis world belongs to the grandpas

 

[helterskelter]

5. The last 16 by sets lost en route:
Zero sets: 5 (Djokovic, Monfils, Raonic, Wawrinka, Ferrer)
1 set: 7 (Tsonga, Nishikori, Federer, Berdych, Kuznetsov, Isner, Murray)
2 sets: 1 (Tomic)
3 sets: 2 (Goffin, Simon)
4 sets: 1 (Bautista Agut)

 

[Mainad]

There are only 10 players in the top 50 that are 25 or younger and none of them are in the top 10. They have won 20 250 between them, 2 500 and of course 0 tier 1. Some new guard we have there :
14- Raonic (25)
16- Goffin (25)
17- Tomic (23)
20- Thiem (22)
21- Sock (23)
28- Dimitrov (24)
30- Kyrgios (20)
39- Pospisil (25)
40- Coric (19)
50- Vesely (22)

Raonic is a walking serve- same as Isner- and we all know the limitations of that type of play in this day and age. Dimitrov was mega hyped too soon and since then has kept regressing (his most memorable achievement remaining his fling with sugarpova)
The rest seems pretty lackluster. I just wish the Aussies (Tomic and KG) would get their act together because they are the only 2 with potential to do some damage on the majority surface (hard court) but they both appear like major basket cases early on, and that's putting it mildly.
Even in the 51-100 category, the 25 years old and younger represent a minority (19 out of 50)
The (current) tennis world belongs to the grandpas

The Old Guard Marches On!

 

[helterskelter]

Moscow Oblast lies west of the Ural Mountains which are the tradtional border between Europe and Asia so Kuznetsov is definitely European.

Thank you. What would you say about Sharapova and Gasparyan? I gave their backgrounds in the women's thread. Makarova was born and raised in Moscow, so is definitely European.

 

[helterskelter]

The Old Guard Marches On!

@veroniquem

The only note of caution I want to give here is that it's been my sense (although I have never studied it statistically) that the results of the Australian Open tend to be more similar to those of the previous year than to those of the remainder of the year. The AO often seems like a coda to what went before, rather than a herald of what's to come next. If that happens again, the failure of the younger guys to make a dent here won't necessarily rule out some changes to the tour later in the year.

 

[Mainad]

Thank you. What would you say about Sharapova and Gasparyan? I gave their backgrounds in the women's thread. Makarova was born and raised in Moscow, so is definitely European.

Sharapova was born in western Siberia which is geographically a part of Asia but her ancestry and heritage are very much European Russian. Gasparyan was born in Moscow but is of Armenian ancestry and heritage and Armenia is located in western Asia. Still, I doubt either woman would consider themselves as having more in common with the peoples of India and China than the peoples of Europe and North America but I could be wrong!

 

[veroniquem]

@veroniquem

The only note of caution I want to give here is that it's been my sense (although I have never studied it statistically) that the results of the Australian Open tend to be more similar to those of the previous year than to those of the remainder of the year. The AO often seems like a coda to what went before, rather than a herald of what's to come next. If that happens again, the failure of the younger guys to make a dent here won't necessarily rule out some changes to the tour later in the year.

I agree! I posted something about it in another thread. Still, the current rankings are not a reflection of 2016 AO but a reflection of current trend. The tour gets older every year and there is still no sign of reversal.

 

[Mainad]

@veroniquem

The only note of caution I want to give here is that it's been my sense (although I have never studied it statistically) that the results of the Australian Open tend to be more similar to those of the previous year than to those of the remainder of the year. The AO often seems like a coda to what went before, rather than a herald of what's to come next. If that happens again, the failure of the younger guys to make a dent here won't necessarily rule out some changes to the tour later in the year.

I somehow doubt a certain Mallorcan player would consider the 2014 AO as being basically a continuation of his 2013 season!

 

[helterskelter]

I somehow doubt a certain Mallorcan player would consider the 2014 AO as being basically a continuation of his 2013 season!

True. But think about, say, Djokovic's AO 2012, Federer's AO 2010, or Agassi's AO 2000. In each case, the dominant player of the previous year won the AO to start the year but was later that year unable to maintain that dominance.

 

[Bukmeikara]

Raonic is far more than just a serve. At his age Isner was making his 2nd year on the tour while Milos is established top 10 with a reasonable success and probably his best results are infront of him as well.

 

[Mainad]

True. But think about, say, Djokovic's AO 2012, Federer's AO 2010, or Agassi's AO 2000. In each case, the dominant player of the previous year won the AO to start the year but was later that year unable to maintain that dominance.

There can be examples either way. Djokovic's win at last year's AO kick-started a dominant year quite different to what had occurred the previous year. Ditto 2011 of course.

 

[veroniquem]

I somehow doubt a certain Mallorcan player would consider the 2014 AO as being basically a continuation of his 2013 season!

Lol. But actually it was. By Rafa's standards, winning Doha and reaching AO final were some of his best results in that time of year. It was a continuation (as well as the end alas) of his hard court resurgence.

 

[veroniquem]

There can be examples either way. Djokovic's win at last year's AO kick-started a dominant year quite different to what had occurred the previous year. Ditto 2011 of course.

Djokovic is THE standard for consistency. He's been pretty much up there for 5 whole seasons now but overall, I feel that AO corresponding to the former year's prevalent pattern works pretty well.

 

[helterskelter]

There can be examples either way. Djokovic's win at last year's AO kick-started a dominant year quite different to what had occurred the previous year. Ditto 2011 of course.

That's true. As I said, I haven't studied it to discern what the pattern really is. It's just my sense that it's more often than not like the previous year. I may be wrong.

 

[Mainad]

Lol. But actually it was. By Rafa's standards, winning Doha and reaching AO final were some of his best results in that time of year. It was a continuation (as well as the end alas) of his hard court resurgence.

Sure but in 2013 he only ever lost a final to Djokovic (with the odd exception of Zeballos at the very beginning at a small event when he had just come back off a long injury layoff). Losing a major final to an even older guy like Stan Wawrinka who had never previously been able to take a set off him, was totally unexpected, unprecedented and very un-2013 like.

 

[veroniquem]

Sure but in 2013 he only ever lost a final to Djokovic (with the odd exception of Zeballos at the very beginning at a small event when he had just come back off a long injury layoff). Losing a major final to an even older guy like Stan Wawrinka who had never previously been able to take a set off him, was totally unexpected, unprecedented and very un-2013 like.

Nobody can predict an injury + Nadal' s main feat on hard in 2013 was the American summer. That is huge in terms of impact alone of course but it's still only 3 events. You're talking as if Nadal had a Djokovic-like season on hard court in 2013. But he didn't. He didn't even play AO at all in 2013 (or Miami). Didn't reach final in either Shanghai or Paris. He did reach final at WTF (lost to Djoko) and AO was a direct continuation of how well Rafa can be expected to do in that type of events.
Doha 2014 was the only time in his career Nadal won an event before AO and it was only his 2nd 250 title on hard (the first one was as far back as the fall of 2005, his best fall on hard). Nadal's only reached AO final 3 times in his career: 2009 (won vs Fed), 2012 (lost to Djoko), 2014 (lost to Wawa). So 2014 was 1 of his top 3 results, I would say his 2nd best career-wise since in 2012, he didn't win a tournament pre-AO.
I'm sorry but Nadal's 2014 AO was much more consistent with his 2013 season than with anything he did in the rest of 2014 or 2015. So to me, it belongs to the 2013 pattern even if he didn't WIN the AO.

 

[Backhanded Compliment]

Man, so many "old" people in the top 8! 2 players in their mid-thirties, no player 25 or younger and only 1 player younger than 28!! (Nishi and he's #7)
Still waiting for players like Raonic, Dimitrov and Tomic to make their move and still looking like I may have to wait forever... The younger batch has shown remarkable consistency at being a never-ending disappointment.

"Manstrength" comes on after age 25 and closer to 30.

 

[veroniquem]

"Manstrength" comes on after age 25 and closer to 30.

Sure. It used to be more about speed and reflexes. Now it's a lot about strength, fitness and discipline.