Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by mistik, Sep 10, 2012.
I cant see anyone stopping her,unless she gets injured.
Can she; yes. Will she; no...
Laura Robson will win Wimbledon
Who is capable of beating her seriously ? The most difficult test will be RG as usual.
Did I miss something? Was yesterday's result 6-1 6-1?
Her opponent served for the match. She lost to Makarova at the Australian this year and went out in the first round of the French. Clearly people can beat her. It is hardly a foregone conclusion.
Considering that she has not reached the F at the French since 2002 (when she won) or even a SF since 2003, then it does seem unlikely that another French is in her future.
A fantastic achievement to have won a US Open 13 years after her first, in spite of what people may think about her competition.
The back-to-back Majors along with the Olympics will give her tremendous confidence but to assume that she is very likely (I assume this is how you feel given the "Who is capable of beating her seriously?" line) to win the next 4 when her opponent served for the match against her yesterday seems hyperbolic.
At least 20 players. If I say " but the conditions gotta be just right", that sounds
like she is an unbeatable entity and that there's Serena, and the rest of the WTA.
If, on the other hand, I remove "but" and "just" we come back to reality in which noone knows what will happen in a year span, naming just two most obvious factors: current form and current form of her opponent, out of probably dozens, predictable and not.
And last, if you think that current "unbeatable" Serena will always remain unbeatable Serena, well, Sir, thanks for opening my eyes and making me realize that things are so black and white. (no, that wasn't a joke)
Based on this year, I don't see her as unbeatable.
French: She lost in the 1st round of the French. Her best shot is her serve and it will play 5% slower at Roland Garros. If other players get into the points on fairly even footing, there are several players that can outplay her - Azarenka, Li Na, +++ Serena is an good mover but not great mover on hard courts. But, her movement is below average on clay.
AO: plays fairly slow which negates her serve but fast enough that this is a good surface for her. She has a good shot here and she should still have lots of confidence from USO.
Wimby: Serena's best surface and her most likely GS title next year
USO: Stosur beat her last year and Azarenka came within 2-3 points of beating her this year. Serena looked vulnerable at several points during the match.
I think Serena has a very very small chance of winning calendar year slam.
1. She is 31 YO and older players are prone to minor injury. A mild sprain could make her vulnerable and it is unlikely she can play at peak health for the whole year with her go for broke style.
2. She has a history of going in and out of focus. Contrast her career with Federer's. She has a good year or 2 and then loses focus and then gets re-energized for another year or 2 and then back out of focus. Federer makes the SF round of every GS for 6 years straight or something crazy like that. If she does not maintain her edge which includes playing enough smaller events to remain sharp, her level will drop.
It is hard to say. I see her winning anywhere from 2-4 slams next year. The French is the one I am most sure she will win. She has no competition other, the only others who play well on clay are her pigeon Sharapova and mentaly midget Stosur. Wimbledon is pretty much a sure thing too. At the Australian and U.S Opens I see her getting serious competition from Victoria Azarenka and Li Na however. Kvitova and Sharapova can win a slam, but only if they dont play Serena, especialy Sharapova who has no prayer in a match vs Serena these days. Radwanska can maybe eke out a slam but only if she avoids Serena too.
So it will come down to the Australian and U.S Open where Azarenka or Li Na might be able to take her out. The French and Wimbledon are pretty safe wins.
The bolded part I agree with 100%. This is why she doesn't already have 20+ majors. It would be nice if she said to herself, "Hey, I'm 31 and going to retire soon but I can obviously still dominate. Why not, just go for broke and win as many big tournaments as I can until I finally hang my racquet up?". If she just decided to go all in for the rest of her career, I have no doubt she would have a good shot at The Grand Slam. The focus is key, though.
In theory, she absolutely can, but there's always the chance of a hot player and/or a bad match. It's tougher than just being dominant when you're "on" - you actually have to go execute for 28 matches and get through the matches where you're not close to your best.
Beyond that, I just don't trust that Serena can stay focused, uninjured, etc. for the whole year, because she hasn't done it in so long. That said, she seems to have a renewed intensity and committment to the sport.
Entirely possible, though not probable, IMO.
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