Did winning the AO damage Nole's chances of RG this year?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Towser83, Mar 8, 2012.

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Did winning AO 2012 give nole...

Poll closed May 27, 2012.
  1. Better chance of winning RG 2012?

    17 vote(s)
    34.7%
  2. Worse chance of winning RG 2012?

    4 vote(s)
    8.2%
  3. not effect his chances of RG 2012 either way?

    28 vote(s)
    57.1%
  1. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    Ok, RG is a while away but I've been thinking about this. Basically would Djokovic's chances of completing his career slam be better had he actually lost the AO this year?

    Think about it, now he has to do something that has not been done since 1969 and aside from the odds being against winning 4 slams in a row, the pressure will also be on him. But if he had lost in the AO he only would have to face odds of winning 1 slam in a row and with much less pressure on him - only a career slam on the line and not a Novak slam.

    I feel it lowers his odds of winning.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2012
    #1
  2. OddJack

    OddJack Legend

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    If it did his, so did Nadal's.

    The AO this year affected their whole careers by shortening it.
     
    #2
  3. Gangsta

    Gangsta Rookie

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    I don't think the pressure is huge enough. Rafa still starts as favorite to win. Should Nadal lose before the finals, that is when the pressure will mount on Nole.
     
    #3
  4. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    yeah but no one can beat nadal there apart from Djokovic
     
    #4
  5. TennisFan3

    TennisFan3 Legend

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    The way Murray played against Djoko in the AO SF, he could have potentially beaten Nadal. Although you can never say..

    Overall, I agree that if Nadal plays well, he could get by everyone except his nemesis (Djoko). In fact, even though Nadal was not playing his best, it can be argued that, through the final, he had an easier time in Wimb, UsO 2011 than Djokovic did. But of course none of this matters, when Nadal-Djoko face, simply because Djoko is a better shotmaker in their mutual rivalry.

    W.r.t OPs main post, I don't quite agree that AO win will hamper Djoko's chances I think Djoko is pacing himself cleverly for the big events. He wasn't anywhere close to his best in Dubai. And while I think he will play better in IW, I don't think we will see A game Djoko until Paris/RG.

    I can guarantee that it will take someone to play the match of their career to beat Djoko at any slam this year. He's determined and has the eye of the tiger. His form in slams will be different from his form in smallish tournaments. Someone who can play 11 hours to beat 2 best players in the world on consecutive days, won't lose so easily..
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2012
    #5
  6. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    I doubt it did....since AO too far away from RG. It does not like he was injured after the final.

    So no damage to his chances.

    Maybe if he plays too much clay court tennis...then yes it would damage his run. He has to find the right amount of preparation for RG.
     
    #6
  7. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    If anything, it damaged Nadal's chances big time. I bet he's still suffering mentally from that loss and knows that if he loses at the FO to Djokovic, it's game over for him.
     
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  8. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    It may well have, considering he played really sub-par in the AO final (and was probably very lucky that he played Nadal, and not someone who could have beaten him), and this was very probably due to the pressure of defending his title. Of course, the pressure will be even higher in RG should he reach the final, although, should rankings stay as they are, he could have the "safety net" of knowing that his opponent in the final will be Nadal, ie the best possible match-up for him, especially when he is tight. But still. We'll see.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2012
    #8
  9. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    Djokovic: career slam, 4 slams in a row
    Nadal: surpass Borg's RG record
    Federer: 2 career slams
    Murray: 1st ever slam

    I'd say the pressure is on ALL of them
     
    #9
  10. Gangsta

    Gangsta Rookie

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    ^ There is absolute ZERO pressure on Federer.
     
    #10
  11. pmerk34

    pmerk34 Legend

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    This isn't a serious post is it?
     
    #11
  12. celoft

    celoft Guest

    If he does win RG it will be huge. First man since Laver 43 years ago.

    Sampras was going for 4 in a row but lost in the QF of the FO in 1994.

    Federer was going for 4 in a row but lost in the Final of the FO in 2006 and 2007.

    Nadal was going for 4 in a row but lost in the QF of the AO in 2011.
     
    #12
  13. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    There will be huge pressure on Nadal, if he loses there (especially if he does to Djokovic), it's game over.
    I'd say there's some pressure on Djokovic going for 4 in a row but I don't see everyone going crazy about it.
    There is absolutely no pressure on both Federer (who doesn't have to prove anything at all) and Murray (I don't think anyone expects him to win his first majors there, more like Wimbledon or the US).
     
    #13
  14. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    Sorry I meant no one can beat nadal at RG apart from Djokovic.


    I just mean first the odds of winning 4 in a row and the pressure of doing it.
     
    #14
  15. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Not at all.
     
    #15
  16. Talker

    Talker Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic is probably being careful to be in top shape, so it would help him.

    Mentally he doesn't freak out about losses or impending losses.
     
    #16
  17. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Who cares, he's an Australian Open specialist. Be happy with that. 2 years ago he was a failure and a faker. He's come a long way, but he's not here to stay.
     
    #17
  18. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    Interesting that at the moment the AO specialist has 2 other slams, Nadal the RG specialist has only RG.
     
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  19. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Nothing wrong with being a specialist. Especially when you are the greatest specialist of all-time, and a Golden Career Grand Slam winner.
     
    #19
  20. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    That's one of the many things I really admire about Djoker. He lives in the moment. He doesn't dwell on the past or look too far ahead of the future. That's why he's been able to be so clutch.
     
    #20
  21. billnepill

    billnepill Hall of Fame

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    I think your point is generally a valid one ( rafa slam anyone) but Djokovic had already enough pressure having the amazing 2011 with weak ending and coming strong to win the AO under difficult circumstances - 2 five setters. I think he did well mentally and that is a good indicator. If he is physically ok and is lucky enough not to meet fed on fire he has a good shot at Djoko slam
     
    #21
  22. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    Oh, he isnt? who's gonna knock him off?

    not the guy who just lost the AO final to him, surely.
     
    #22
  23. billnepill

    billnepill Hall of Fame

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    What if you change Australian open to French open in your sentence?
     
    #23
  24. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    No effect IMO.
     
    #24
  25. monfed

    monfed Guest

    The only concern is his fitness, if he stays fit,get's his serve back to a reasonable level atleast then he should be fine imo.
     
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  26. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Bionic Poster

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    So would Novak be in the GOAT discussion if he won?
     
    #26
  27. monfed

    monfed Guest

    He would be if he won 10+ slams. For argument's sake if he won the NCYGS and retired the next day with a total of 6 slams, then NO. It would mean that Novak would be remembered for this great achievement but that's about it.
     
    #27
  28. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

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    No effect, its like saying winning a marathon reduces your chance of winning more or the next. There's adequate time to recover.
     
    #28
  29. monfed

    monfed Guest

    The jinxing is more in the minds of the fans than the players themselves. These guys are too professional to let something trivial affect them.
     
    #29
  30. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    The French Open is far more prestigious than the Australian Open. Compare:

    Player A is a 7-time Australian Open winner.

    Player B is a 7-time French Open winner.

    I know which I'd rather be.

    And another key is to have the Golden Career Grand Slam to back it up. Versatility of Nadal is beyond dispute. Djokovic whereas, hasn't even made a final of the clay slam.

    Anyway, I don't know if Djokovic will feel pressure at Roland Garros. I don't think Nadal showed any signs of pressure at the 2011 Australian Open when he was going for The Rafa Slam. He didn't even drop a set until he tore the muscle.
     
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  31. Evan77

    Evan77 Banned

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    meh, I love the AO.

    however, I simply don't understand the op. sure Nole had to play 2 tough matches against Murray and Nadal, he WON. what does that have to do with RG?. He is super fit.
     
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  32. SLD76

    SLD76 Legend

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    Didnt I warn you before about your crapola?

    Rofl..first time I have ever heard of someone being a HC slam specialist.

    Or more specifically an AO specialist....lmao@trying to justify rafa's 233353564 FOs compared to Djoker's 3 AO.

    Face it..the truth is...Rafa *is* a claycourt specialist times 2.
    Remember when everyone criticized Rafa for playing every clay tourney in the world and then him complaining about the season being too long?

    Newsflash..the reason he had to play all those clay tourneys is because he knew he had no chance to stay even remotely close to Fed in the point standings if he didnt play and win every clay court tourny on the tour.

    Especially early in his career when he wasnt as good off clay.

    And now that he is consistent on all surfaces? Its cool, except for the fact that he has never defended a non clay title.

    but I guess those non clay titles are worth less than monte carlo...roflmao


    just stop already.
     
    #32
  33. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Although when you are in the 4th/5th set of matches you do more than what your body would usually allow, because you feel adrenaline. The long-term affects of the match are the key. Djokovic had nothing left after last year's US Open final for example. Maybe that was because the entire year had accumulated tiredness. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic is a different player since the AO final. He's already lost in the semis, in straight sets to Murray.
     
    #33
  34. SLD76

    SLD76 Legend

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    whatever.

    this from the supporter of the guy who played a 5 hr semi and then played a 5 hr final to win the AO title...roflmao!
     
    #34
  35. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    Winning that AO final against Nadal after the marathon cliffhanger SF against Murray, when he was clearly playing at about 60% of his capacity while Nadal was at his best can only help boost Djoker's confidence. Not to mention how he savagely snatched that final set from Nadal after being down a break, no less !
    Why on earth would it negatively impact him at RG ? It will only give him the belief that he can win when the chips are down and when not at his best.
     
    #35
  36. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    Right. Clearly, Nadal had a lot left after last year's USO final given how many titles he won since then. Is Nadal the only one in the top 6 to not win a title since last RG ?
     
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  37. devila

    devila Banned

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    you have to be the ultimate federer worshipper to fake your admiration for djoker. let's pretend that real "men" like federer, sampras, mcenroe and roddick knew how to be heroes who faced the 'terrible evil expectations and ridicule' of the media and public.
     
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  38. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Nadal very rarely wins a title after the US Open. That is his norm. He delivers after he has his off-season (February).

    Nadal is actually the only player in the top 6 to have made the last 4 slam finals (including that RG title he won). I'll take that over winning a few non-slams.
     
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  39. monfed

    monfed Guest

    Precisely. Which is why the only thing between him and RG is his fitness. And ofcourse Fed playing in god mode, though I don't think he'll replicate what he did last year.
     
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  40. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    I said since last RG. Does Nadal rarely ever win a title from RG to AO ? This is news to me. Unless you are trying to say he only wins clay titles as the norm.
     
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  41. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    So he lost in the quarters cos he was injured or because the AO is his worst surface like you keep saying? Make up your mind. Sounds like AO is a good surface forhim if he needs an injury to make him lose a set

     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2012
    #41
  42. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    I may have misunderstood your point but I think you're making the same fallacy as people who think that if you flip 3 heads in a row, then flipping the 4th head is harder. Flipping the 4th head is exactly the same as starting from 0 and having to flip only 1 head. Each coin flip is independent and hence the result of each coin flip has no bearing on the next coin flip. Now in the Djoker case, the events (winning a slam) are not completely independent as there is the whole mental pressure aspect. The pressure could technically be higher on him now. But then again, the desire will also probably be stronger. Plus higher self belief since he won the last slam.

    So on the whole, I see no reason why losing AO would have been better for Nole's chances.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2012
    #42
  43. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    well with odds i just mean that it's really rare for someone to win 4 in a row, I know the odds of flipping a head is always 50/50 no matter how many times it lands heads in a row.

    True that maybe the desire offsets the pressure though.
     
    #43
  44. Fate Archer

    Fate Archer Hall of Fame

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    If anything it improved his chances I think. He defended the biggest title on his turf.

    He's got a lot to defend yet but he did it by beating Nadal on his game and coming with a slightly revamped strategy while he wasn't even playing his best at that tournament. That should give him HUGE confidence when they meet again.

    By the time IW/Miami are over it will be up to Nadal to defend his turf. Apart from RG he got his ass kicked by Novak when they met last year.

    Depending on the form Novak shows during this clay season RG will be extremely interesting.
     
    #44
  45. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Nobody knows who would have won between Ferrer and Nadal. But the torn muscle gave Nadal no chance of covering the court from sideline-to-sideline. You can see on the replays how Nadal hit a ball on the sideline, then Ferrer went crosscourt and Nadal slowly ran to the far sideline and was too late to get around the ball properly. But that doesn't mean a fit Nadal would have beaten Ferrer Wall. It still would have been a titanic match in my opinion. It would have been like the 2009 marathon vs Verdasco. Nadal is 12-0 vs Verdasco. But Nadal was very lucky to beat Verdasco at the 2009 AO. Absolute toss-of-a-coin-type finish. Murray whooped Nadal in the 2010 AO btw. Nadal was fit in that match until the 3rd set when he got hurt. Nadal was being trounced before the injury.
     
    #45
  46. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    yeah and murray beat nadal at the us open in 2008, only difference is that he only met him in the semis there. He also lost to Ferrer at the US Open. So really the 2 quarter final losses at the AO don't mean that much.
     
    #46
  47. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    I am always thinking that the 2.0 in Bullz1lla2.0's username is homage to Novak 2.0. The same Novak 2.0 that has gone 7-0 in finals with the Bull himself.
     
    #47
  48. jayoub95

    jayoub95 Semi-Pro

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    Djokovic is gonna be under so much pressure but i still think that he is gonna take the Roland Garros in the finals against Nadal in a 5 set marathon. Gotta feel for Nadal though cause while Djokovic is in great form the RG looks like Nadals only hope for a slam.
     
    #48
  49. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Anyone who followed tennis in 2008 knows how exhausted Nadal was heading into the 2008 US Open. He said its the most worn out he's ever been in his life, because the Olympics took so much out of him, after winning RG-Wimbledon, and also the matches in Canada he played just before US Open. And if you actually saw that US Open match vs Murray you would see it was not the usual energetic Nadal. If Nadal had such a brutal schedule in 2010, he wouldn't have won the US Open probably. And Ferrer in the US Open 2007? Ferrer is a bad matchup for Nadal on hardcourts. If you can ask which player I want Nadal to avoid at all costs on hardcourts its Ferrer.
     
    #49
  50. BULLZ1LLA2.0

    BULLZ1LLA2.0 Banned

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    Even if you really think Djokovic has the ability to beat Nadal at Roland Garros, you can't be sure Djokovic will upset Federer (if they meet in the semis).

    Nadal didn't look like he had a problem vs Djokovic in the Wimbledon final. Nadal breadsticked Djokovic there, and only lost by a break in the 4th set. Was close, and if Nadal wins Roland Garros he should be favorite at Wimbledon.
     
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