Djokovic is still the 1st favorite to win Wimbledon according to bookmakers

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by 5555, May 20, 2013.

  1. mightyrick

    mightyrick Hall of Fame

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    Not bad odds. I'd have to see what the draw looks like to take Djokovic in the long shot at 6:1. If Djokovic ends up with two tough matches prior to the final... I don't even think I'd take him at 6:1. I might take him at 8:1.

    I'd take him at 6:1 if he had a cupcake draw up until the semi-finals. But not the quarterfinals.
     
    #51
  2. grandmaster

    grandmaster Rookie

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    right now if i had to bet i'd go for murray. he destroyed federer at the olympics and he's a better grass court player than djok. can't see nadal winning it, that would surely be asking too much, even of him.
     
    #52
  3. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic won't lose a set at Wimbledon from now until 2065.
     
    #53
  4. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Is Djoko still 1st favorite for W? That's strange. Fed is the title holder. Murray made both W and Olympics final last year (and Djoko was beaten badly by both of them) and Nadal is on a roll with lots of clay wins but also a win at IW.
     
    #54
  5. grandmaster

    grandmaster Rookie

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    you might be right to be honest.

    gosh i just dont know.
     
    #55
  6. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    Wow, 52 straight Wimby titles and still goating at 78! Kinda puts Rafa's 8 RG titles a little in the shade, doesn't it? :)

    I wonder what the heck is in that gluten-free diet of his? I really must try some for myself! ;-)
     
    #56
  7. rosewallGOAT

    rosewallGOAT Banned

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    I dont see why people are saying it would be too hard for Nadal to win it other than if there was a particular opponent that would be tough for him to beat. However people seem to be basing it off fatigue. That is silly considering Nadal made it to the 7th and final match at Wimbledon 5 times directly after winning RG. He did lose 3 of those 5 finals, but none was due to fatigue. He is even pulling out of a warmup to have even more energy for the event.
     
    #57
  8. NikeWilson

    NikeWilson Semi-Pro

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    Djokovic is still great on any surface. He did lose to Federer last year in the Semis, which seemed like a fluke. DJokovic just was not in form. I would imagine he'll never lose to Federer again from here on out.
    Last year the combination of Fed's experience, and England's overwhelming pressure on Murray, played a major part in why Murray lost to Federer. But Murray got revenge a month later by destroying Fed at the Olympics. And then Murray went on to win his first Slam at the US Open. So now, I feel most of the pressure is off Murray, and he'll perform better at Wimbledon this year. But then again, the pressure still might be too overwhelming by the British people, it might screw Murray up.
    Nadal, despite his 1st round loss last year, typically does very well at Wimbledon. He made it to the Finals in 2006, 2007, 2008, Didn't play in 2009, made it back to the Finals in 2010 and won it. And Nadal made it to the Finals in 2011 where he lost to Djokovic. Then last year he lost to Rosol in 5 sets.
    But Nadal is coming off huge momentum from not only recently winning the French Open, but he's gotten to every single Final in all 9 tournaments he's played in since he came back from the 7-month layoff.
    He's on a roll. His confidence and his game is back to 100%.
    I think he can make it to the Wimbledon Finals. And even win it. I expect him to probably face Djokovic in the Final. Djokovic is not in God-mode like he was in 2011. And Nadal is not in depressed-mode as he was in 2011.

    Here's how I would rank the Favorites to win:

    1) Nadal
    2) Djokovic
    3) Murray
    4) Federer
     
    #58
  9. 5555

    5555 Hall of Fame

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    Bookmakers do not make predictions. They make probability estimates.

    If a bookie underestimates a players’s ability, the bookie can lose money. Therefore, bookmakers must set odds as accurately as possible.

    The major bookmakers are armed with the most knowledgeable tennis experts in regard to probability estimates (ie statisticians), and these people think it's likely that Djokovic will win Wimbledon.
     
    #59
  10. mightyrick

    mightyrick Hall of Fame

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    It is very clear to me that you have very little understanding about what bookies do, how they cover bets, and how they make money. Bookies don't make probability estimates. That is ridiculous. I'm not even sure you understand what my post means.

    The first goal for a bookie is to ensure that a bet he takes can be covered. So he wants to ensure that all the backing bets are covered by lay bets -- and vice versa. If one side gets too lopsided, the bookie is in a precarious situation and might not be able to cover without dipping into his own profits... or worse... borrowing money from other bookies.

    The way that a bookie ensures that all bets are covered is to adjust the backing/lay odds as the event approaches. If a bookie needs more coverage on one side... he'll make the odds more attractive on the other side.

    It isn't about probability. It's about bet coverage.

    Also, a word of advice. Never take a tip from a bookie unless you know him/her very well. Many times, a bookie will sell an unsuspecting customer on a particular bet... when the bookie knows good and well the odds he's offering aren't good. The bookie is just trying to cover his bets.
     
    #60
  11. borg number one

    borg number one Legend

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    I think it's going to be a great tournament. As of now, I'd say:

    1. Nadal
    2. Djokovic
    3. Murray
    4. Federer
     
    #61
  12. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

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    Another word, the bookmakers was wrong last year but you act as their predictions are above and beyond anyone's opinion.

    Stop the nonsense.
     
    #62
  13. phnx90

    phnx90 Hall of Fame

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    WAT

    wat a hanging offence is?

    ur lyk [le]terally hit[le]r
     
    #63
  14. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Yep, and not in a good way.
     
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  15. 5555

    5555 Hall of Fame

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    I'm talking about the initial odds. It is paramount for a bookmaker to set initial odds at a value that realistically represent the probability of a player winning Wimbledon. Initial odds are probability estimates. Later, when gamblers start to bet, bookmaker may correct the initial odds because much more money was bet on one outcome compared to the opposite one, while the bookmaker needs an even distribution. In this case they attract gamblers with high odds for the outcomes nobody wants to bet on. At the same time, small odds for the outcome, which a large amount of money has been already put on, hold those who would otherwise bet on.

    You can not say that bookmakers were wrong last year, because they do not make predictions. They make probability estimates. Other example, Nadal was installed as a favorite to beat Rosol by bookmakers, but the fact that Rafa lost the match does not mean bookies were wrong. It's a fact that Nadal was favorite to beat Rosol.

    Why is that question nonsense?
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2013
    #65
  16. W.P. Mayhew

    W.P. Mayhew Semi-Pro

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    Just wait until the bookmakers find out that Murray is leading the TT poll.
     
    #66
  17. Fate Archer

    Fate Archer Hall of Fame

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    I'd say as of now it's:

    1. Murray
    2. Federer / Djokovic
    4. Nadal
    ...
    5. Tsonga
    6. Berdych

    If Murray repeats his 2012 form I would favor him against anyone probably. It would be interesting to see how he fares against Nadal now, if Nadal manages to survive the 1st week and eventually get to him.

    Djokovic and Federer are about even me thinks, with Djokovic being the more solidy and less streaky of the two. Federer has a bit of a greater chance to be upset early if we go by the last few years, but if he finds his form through the tournament he has a very good chance to win as always.

    As for Nadal, he will enter the tournament with a confidence boost after his latest FO win as usual, but again, so was he last year after probably his best FO campaign and he got Rosoled in the 2nd round. :)
    Its been almost two years since he made a final there too. But well, there will be no other two times Wimbledon champion on the draw, so he may surprise us yet again.

    Then there is a good gap after the big favorites, followed by Tsonga and Berdych. Tsonga would be my outside pick. His game can really click on the grass. The question is whether he can go through at least two big favorites. After Tsonga there is the streaky Berdych, who has the game to go deep at SW19.

    My dark horse pick this year will be Grigor Dimitrov. His game is maturing and as a Wimbledon Juniors champion, he also has the grass pedigree to go deep and perhaps cause some surprises.
     
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  18. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    Don't quite understand this sentence:

    He has only beaten his (at the time) pigeon Nadal of any top 4 player on the surface and that was an almost entirely mental victory.

    Also, do "almost entirely mental victories" count any less than other ones?
     
    #68
  19. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    As he should be. Did you make a post like this for FO?
     
    #69
  20. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    I'm guessing that one year doesn't make a player? Granted Novak should be ranked number 1 choice for Wimbledon. Not sure he'll make it, but, Rafa was ranked to beat everyone at the French, and did.

    Quite frankly, I'm thinking that Murray might win this year.
     
    #70
  21. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    I favor Murray as well. I think you're on crack regarding Dimitrov, he's got to work on his stamina. He cramps in best of 3. Until he can amp up his stamina, I think he's a first week GS player.
     
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  22. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    To me, Murray's one Slam was a fluke-and, not at Wimbledon, obviously. I think his tendency to choke would only be made worse by the expectations of the British fans. And, he's likely to be rusty, as well. No shot, IMO.
     
    #72
  23. phnx90

    phnx90 Hall of Fame

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    #73
  24. Fate Archer

    Fate Archer Hall of Fame

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    Yeh, he's got some endurance issues, but on grass where points are shorter and many free points can be gained with the serve, I think any problems he may have on this front won't be as much of a factor as they can be on clay and possibly hard courts for him.
     
    #74
  25. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    So he's fluked his way to 6 slam finals and one win. I guess he must have fluked that Olympic gold too eh, especially with the British fans' expectations.

    The only guy on the planet to have made semis or better at the last 4 Wimbeldons and who just last year handed a 7 time SW19 winner his worst ever beat down at centre court has NO SHOT at Wimbledon?

    Stop it mate, my ribs are hurting.
     
    #75
  26. namelessone

    namelessone Legend

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    And this is shocking why, exactly?

    The guy is nr.1, nearly beat Nadal on Nadal's best surface and won the whole thing 2 years ago. Of course he is gonna be the first shot for bookies. He could've won it last year as well if he didn't fall to a inspired Federer on the day.

    Djokovic may not be the purest grasscourter around but he has improved on this surface.

    Federer is a question mark after his not so great CC season, we will see how he does in Halle, Nadal may go out to big hitters first week, Murray will have home pressure on his back again. So it's not a surprise that Djoko gets the first pick.
     
    #76
  27. Gandalf

    Gandalf Rookie

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    This.

    Would be true just the same even if you stopped at 'And this is shocking why, exactly?'
     
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  28. 5555

    5555 Hall of Fame

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    mightyrick, if you do not reply, you will lose the argument.
     
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  29. President

    President Legend

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    My point was that Nadal was at his mentally weakest against Djokovic in 2011, he was entirely his pigeon and in the midst of a 7 match losing streak to him including on Nadal's preferred clay . If they had played last year on grass, for example, IMO Nadal would have won handily. Djokovic is no longer in Nadal's head and I doubt he'll beat him on grass this year. He's just a much better natural grass court player.
     
    #79
  30. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Agreed. Cvac is the favorite followed by Murray, imo. Not sure why that's so hard to believe.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2013
    #80
  31. Fedex

    Fedex Hall of Fame

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    Murray won in straight sets but it was 7-5 7-5. Hardly what you would call beating Djokovic badly.
     
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  32. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    It's between Murray and Federer.
     
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  33. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

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    I partly agree with that, and I think much of the mental stigma has gone now. It went after the AO final in 2012 IMO, even though Nadal lost. That said, Djokovic is still a very large and real challenge to Nadal on any surface. A match up on grass is a toss of a coin IMO.
     
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  34. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    I don't view reaching a final as a sign of greatness, I view WINNING them as a great accomplishment. Anybody in the History of the World ever lose 9 straight sets in his first 3 Slam finals? Only one person that I'm aware of. An event that is played every 4 years and had, like, a 60 year break isn't a normal tournament in my eyes, and, thus, I don't attach much importance to it. Frankly, I'd just as soon they boot tennis out of the Olympics like they did before. MY ribs hurt at people who think that Rat Boy has turned some Big Corner...
     
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  35. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    BP lost at Wimbledon, in the 2nd round, to Mr. 100, but you think that he would have won, no, not just won, but won "handily" vs Nole. I don't quite get the logic there. And BP hasn't beaten Nole on any surface besides dirt since the 7 consecutive trips to the woodshed, plus has suffered another loss on his beloved dirt, so, I also don't quite get where all this oozing confidence is coming from, but, I guess we'll see in a few weeks...
     
    #85
  36. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    I would put Murray as number 2 and Djokovic as number 3 based on natural grass court abilities but the only question will be Murray's form.
     
    #86
  37. President

    President Legend

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    Yes, we will see. Just don't be too surprised or disappointed when your beloved "Nole" is taken to the woodshed by either Murray or Nadal, and maybe even Federer if Roger can get it together.
     
    #87
  38. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    President is right imo. Djokovic is number one in the world but he is not the best grass court player, Nadal is better. Plus, I think Nadal has the slight mental edge over Djokovic coming into the event after that FO battle. Nadal seems like he is on a mission to get the number one ranking back and he has almost no points to defend for the rest of the year whereas Djokovic has a truckload.
     
    #88
  39. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    I think that is going to change. Remember Nadal still leads that overall h2h vs Djokovic and is 2-3 vs Djokovic in off clay slams. It is not like there is complete Nadal ownage off clay in slams, it is very tight.
     
    #89
  40. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    And don't be too surprised if your beloved BP draws Rosol again, and this time, when he tries his bush league shoulder bump, gets body slammed to the turf...
     
    #90
  41. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    I disagree, I don't see why BP would feel any mental edge anywhere but dirt-even there, he now has a razor thin 4-3 edge since 2011, hardly domination, and zero wins vs Nole everywhere else. Plus, he hasn't exactly been a crackerjack player in the last half of the year historically, has he?
     
    #91
  42. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Wait - you just described someone else as Bush League...

    [​IMG]
     
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  43. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    But Djokovic has not been a crackerjack player since the AO. He does not appear to be the same 2011 Superman player to me and Nadal looks like he has made some slight adjustments to his game against Djokovic, that could be all the difference Nadal needs. I don't think we are going to see complete Djokovic domination of Nadal off clay moving forward, I think their rivalry may be a tight one, some wins going to Nadal, some to Djokovic. In any case, Nadal is the better grass court player, you can't dispute that right?
     
    #93
  44. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    Uh, yeah, I can, and I do. What happened when they played there last? What happened when BP played there last? Why are you discounting that? Grass is, by definition, a small sample, so, short of a Sampras or Fed like run, saying anybody is clearly superior to anybody else is unfounded, IMO. Nobody has more Slams this year than Nole, he beat BP on dirt, and lost 9-7 in the 5th to him at the Dirtball, and you, and others are acting like he's having a year kinda like the one Fed is having right now. I disagree completely and utterly with that.
     
    #94
  45. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    You're too deep, I don't get what it is that you're saying. Deflect much(about BP's disgraceful behavior and whining about "breathing" in case that went over YOUR head)?
     
    #95
  46. dafinch

    dafinch Banned

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    You're talking about ancient history, even with last Sunday's result, he is 4-8 overall vs Nole since 2011, ALL his wins coming on dirt. A razor thin win on dirt is not gonna change those eight losses, sorry.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2013
    #96
  47. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    So Djokovic defeats Nadal one time at W and all of a sudden he is the superior grass court player? Their records on grass speak for themselves, no need to get angry about it, it is what it is. And nobody is comparing Djokovic's form right now to the badly declining Federer's form, but it cannot be denied that Djokovic has not shown the same brilliant form he did in 2011 and early 2012. Both he and Nadal have the same number of slams so far this year and I don't get the impression that Nadal is going to back down in his fight against Djokovic.

    Did you actually watch the last non-clay slam they played at the AO 2012? That match could have gone either way. That is why I am saying I personally do not see that Djokovic is going to dominate Nadal in all off clay slams the way he did in 2011. I would honestly be shocked if that happens. I think they will split some wins moving forward and then you may have Murray in there too if he can regain some form.
     
    #97
  48. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    You are right, but I think you are going to be disappointed if you are expecting Djokovic to dominate Nadal in off clay slams the way he did in 2011. We'll soon find out in the next few months.
     
    #98
  49. Antonio Puente

    Antonio Puente Hall of Fame

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    2010 is ancient history - dinosaurs roamed the earth - 2011 is not.

    Since AO 2012, Djoker is 1-4 vs. Nadal. Basically, 2011 is the only thing you have to hang your hat on.
     
    #99
  50. ScottleeSV

    ScottleeSV Professional

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    All five of those recent meetings have been on clay. Just as he once did with Federer, Nadal is getting to clay finals but disappearing when other tournaments come around.

    Until he beats Djokovic on grass/hard, he can't really claim to have healed the scars of 2011 and early 2012.
     

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