Djokovic will stay at no 1 for a while

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by tennis_pro, Nov 12, 2012.

  1. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    So let's look at the "upcoming" ranking changes.

    Djokovic has a 2500 point lead (not sure something around that) over Federer who is 2nd and a 4500 point advantage over Murray.

    Even if Novak loses in the 1st round of the AO (yeah right) and Federer wins, Djokovic will remain no 1. Then there's Rotterdam, Dubai and Indian Wells where Fed is defending like 2000 points for 3 consecutive victories. No chance he defends them all, Djokovic could gain some points here and there.

    Here's why I think Djokovic will stay at no 1 at least till end of Wimbledon:
    1) Federer got what he wanted - reached no 1 in 2012. I don't think he will push himself in 2013 as he did this year to get back to no 1 again.
    2) Murray is too far behind in the rankings, even compared to Federer. He could gain some points in the Masters but that's still a 4500 point difference.
    3) Nadal obviously has only points to defend until Wimbledon. At beast he stays at no 4 until Wimbledon. He won't even have a chance to get back to no 2, 3 at least until the North American hard court season.
    4) The rest doesn't matter
     
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  2. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

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    You never know really but if Novak IS consistent like he was this year, you couldn't put it past him.

    Hope he wins RG, defeating Nadal in the final.

    That is my dream. :)
     
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  3. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Duh! Whoever beats Nadal at French will be my new hero but Novak beating him (and having a career slam) would be extra special.
     
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  4. kaku

    kaku Professional

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    Definitely deserves it, hopefully he wins the FO next year, too good a clay courter to not have at least one FO
     
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  5. dhdriver

    dhdriver Rookie

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    I would love to see Novak beat Rafa at RG as well!
     
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  6. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

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    I'm all for Djokovic winning RG and beating Nadal there, but before Fed retires I'd like to see him lift that trophy one more time
     
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  7. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic will probably be number one for a while longer, but I'm really hoping Murray continues challenging at the highest level and pushes for the number one ranking. Federer and Nadal dominated for so long that I'm not used to several people being in contention and I'd like to see it start happening again.
     
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  8. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I agree he will be #1 for quite awhile. At the worst case scenario for him Murray or Nadal could be challenging him for #1 by the very end of next year. He is pretty much certain to hold it another 10 months minimum. It makes sense too. He isnt as dominant as 2011 but he is still clearly the best player in the World right now, and his year was hands down the best of anyone (I dare anyone to even try and deny that now).
     
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  9. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    i know it wont happen but Nole losing to first round in Aussie will cost him 2000 points and fed winning could lift him! Obviously there is no way its going to happen but just pointing it out! Nole is a 93% win for Aussie
     
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  10. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    I have Clarky on ignore, so someone tell me if she says that Djoker will stay No. 1 for the rest of his life.
     
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  11. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Djokovic's odds to win the Australian Open are definitely atleast 70%. The clear favorite to be sure.
     
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  12. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

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    Novak for calendar slam in 2013, this coming from a Fed fan.
     
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  13. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

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    the new world rankings are up on the atp tour site :)

    the week dated 12.11.12 (hey its almost a pallindrome )..

    1. djokovic...12'920
    2. federer....10'265
    3. murray......8'000
    4. nadal........6'795
    5. ferrer........6'430.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2012
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  14. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    It's interesting.
    Nadal was ranked number 4 in March 2010.
    Nadal was ranked number 1 in June 2010.
     
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  15. mib

    mib New User

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    That is not correct. In that case Djokovic would drop 2000 points and Federer would gain almost 1300 points. The total difference of 3300 points would be more than enough to put Federer in the first place.
     
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  16. kOaMaster

    kOaMaster Hall of Fame

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    eh? if roger would win the AO he'd gain 1280 points, if nole doesn't make it to the final he'd lose at least 1280 points -> 2560 difference.
     
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  17. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    I'll bet my house on Rafa NOT being number 1 in June 2013, if that's what you are getting at. The difference was that Rafa was in 2010 going to make up for a somewhat poor clay season and a missed wimbledon, real soon. Now he can only start to make up lost ground from Wimbledon onwards, cause THAT's where he lost it. Will be interesting to see.
     
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  18. atptennis

    atptennis Rookie

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    I guess Novak has a decent chance to surpass Nadal at No. of weeks at number one ranking. But Nadal and Murray will have their say in that. Murray is fresh with new confidence and is a real threat at AO. And you can be sure that Fed wont back down from the ranking race as he knows thats the only way to remain competitive among big four.
     
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  19. atptennis

    atptennis Rookie

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    imo after the way he played this years SF, fed has got very little or no chance to lift RG. So do Murray. Only one who stands good chance against Rafa at RG is Novak.
     
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  20. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal will be lucky to stay in the top 4 after the Australian Open, let alone reach no 1.
     
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  21. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Yep, it is. The three-month span is interesting, you're right.

    Nadal was ranked number 4 in September 2012.
    Nadal will be ranked number 4 (just) in December 2012. Will have to wait for January before he gets to number 5.

    Such earth-shattering news for the tennis world are worth a whole dozen threads, obviously.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2012
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  22. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    double post
     
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  23. Dark Magician

    Dark Magician Professional

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    How can that be?
    Roger defends 720, Novak-2000. 1st round loss -2000 pts lost + Federer wins 1280 if he wins AO, that makes it 3280.
    So If fed wins, he needs novak to lose almost 1400 more i.e Q.final loss.
     
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  24. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    It is impressive than Nadal didn't even play between September and December and still didn't slip at all in the rankings.
     
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  25. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    The harder he works, the luckier he gets. Exactly. That's why Nadal has been ranked number one for 102 weeks.
     
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  26. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Fixed it for you. :)
     
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  27. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Yea whatever.
     
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  28. Tennis_Hands

    Tennis_Hands Hall of Fame

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    A courtesy of his dominant 2011, no doubt.
     
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  29. hedera

    hedera Rookie

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    If Roger wins the AO and Nole loses in SF, they'll be within 40-50 points, just like Wimbledon this year!
    Never count Roger out!
    I can actually imagine frequent swapping for the top spot in the next few months. RG should be interesting.
     
    #29
  30. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    The likelihood of that is miniscule at best.
     
    #30
  31. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    I'd say it's possible (and only possible) if Djokovic draws Murray on his side of the draw and loses to him in the semifinal, and Federer draws Nadal, and Nadal loses before he gets to the semifinal, and Federer beats Murray in the final. Sort of farfetched but it is possible.
     
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  32. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Murray has lost to Djokovic twice on faster surfaces which favor Murray since winning a 5 setter on a faster surface at the U.S Open. On slow hard courts Djokovic would be the heavy favorite. Last year he was way below his best and still beat Murray and Nadal who both played at their absolute best.
     
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  33. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Unlike most, I take Murray's recent losses (and Federer's WTF loss to Djokovic) as positives for them. They may have lost but they could have just as easily won. Murray had matchpoints and/or the match in his hands and Federer just didn't serve as well as he could have. A small tip in the scales and they could have won all those matches. Having said that, yes, the AO is Djokovic's turf. I have a hard time seeing Federer beating Djokovic there. Murray, though, I can definitely see. It just feels everytime I watch Djokovic vs. Murray that Murray is becoming sort of a match-up problem for Djokovic and we know Murray can hang with the best of them when he gets his head right, which I'm hoping he will now that he's won his first Grand Slam.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
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  34. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    There is little chance that Djokovic lost the #1 before the U.S. Open.
     
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  35. zam88

    zam88 Professional

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    Let's say Nadal retired and Novak tears his ACL in Dubai?

    What would 2013 look like then?

    AO - Pwnerer 50% Murray 50%
    FO - Pwnerer 70% DelPo 30%?
    WM - Pwnerer 60% Murray 40%
    USO - Murray 60% Pwnerer 25% DelPo 15%

    I mean are we that close to a multi-slam season for Fed and a 4th shift at #1?
     
    #35
  36. dudeski

    dudeski Hall of Fame

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    Wouldn't it be more fun if he defeated Rosol in the final after Rosol beat Nadal in the 1st round?
     
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  37. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    I'm a Nadal fan but I LOLed.
     
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  38. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    We will see. I could definitely see Murray beating Djokovic at a major next year but I dont think it will be the Australian Open, especialy after Djokovic has the confidence of beating Djokovic multiple times since the U.S Open, and even saving match points at will when needed to bolster him going into his very best slam and surface to start the year. It isnt so much a negative for Murray I agree, but a positive for Djokovic, and that is Murray's biggest problem come the Australian Open. That said if anyone beats Djokovic there (and I dont think that will happen) it would be Murray. Even more unlikely Federer on those slow courts, and a just returning to action Nadal will do it. As for Del Potro he cant even keep the fitness and energy level, along with the level of play to beat Djokovic in a best of 3 on a faster surface (other than possibly grass) so good luck doing it in a best of 5 on slow bouncy courts in broiling heat.
     
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  39. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    The AO hasn't had "broiling heat" in nearly 4 years. It's been below normal,and very mild.


    And Cvac did what he does best the last time the AO had "broiling heat" in 2009. He retired against Roddick in the quarters.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
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  40. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    What? :shock:
     
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  41. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    youre a nadal fan?? since when?
     
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  42. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Probably 2006. I like Federer better but I like Nadal enough to call myself his fan.
     
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  43. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    Oh! ok that makes sense, you like both :) i got confused because i saw you supporting fed a lot after coming to these boards i forgot you can like both players, these tards are really getting to me :mad:
     
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  44. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Like I said previously, I like most players. Even Djokovic and Murray (Murray only since his AO loss in 2010). Just because I take the **** out of a few of them in some of my more heated arguments doesn't mean I hate them. They're all very good players and generally good people from what we can see.
     
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  45. 3fees

    3fees Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic will stay at no 1 for a while

    I concur with this

    :mrgreen:
     
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  46. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic will be battling with Federer for the No.1 spot during the first half of the year, and with Murray/Nadal during the second half of the year. We could once again have a three man race if Murray defends his US Open title and Nadal defends his Roland Garros title.
     
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  47. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    If Federer's not ranked higher than Djokovic after the AO, he's not getting that top spot any time soon.

    Fed besides an AO semi is defending wins in Dubai, Rotterdam and Indian Wells. Djokovic at the same time is defending a semi in Dubai, nothing in Rotterdam and a semi in Indian Wells. Fed would have to really outperform Novak in Australia to have a prayer of getting to no 1 and staying there for a couple more weeks. Which ain't happening.
     
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  48. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

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    I agree with most of it, but didn't Novak win Miami? That cancels out IW right?
     
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  49. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    But Miami comes after the 3.
     
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  50. Big_Dangerous

    Big_Dangerous Legend

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    He's playing the golden clay swing in Latin America, so I don't see how he'll drop below 4.
     
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