Drastic cutback in Junior Tournaments for 2010

Discussion in 'Junior League & Tournament Talk' started by justinmadison, Aug 5, 2010.

  1. NewGuy

    NewGuy Rookie

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    Why wouldn't a 48 draw work? Doesn't that mean the seeds get byes?

    The more I think about it I really see no advantage to the change. It actually runs counter to the move to get more players involved....
     
    #51
  2. mrmo1115

    mrmo1115 Hall of Fame

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    Copper Bowl - cancelled.
     
    #52
  3. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    The weirdest thing about the changes for 2011 is no one seems to be aware of what is happening. At the last 4 national tournaments I attended it was very difficult to find people who were even aware of what was happening. At the National Hard courts in San Antonio I could not find a single parent or coach who knew about the changes.

    If you go to the USTA website for juniors http://www.usta.com/Youth-Tennis/Junior-Competition/JuniorCompetition/ you cannot find anything at all. There is an entire section devoted to USA National Tournaments http://www.usta.com/Youth-Tennis/Junior-Competition/NationalTournamentDescrip/ it was updated July 2010 and it describes the old system exactly with no mention of the new format.

    If you go to http://www.easterbowl.com/ It has in bold at the top April 10-17 2011. I quote from the site “No junior tournament in the world gets the press coverage the Easter Bowl receives each April and this year will be no different.”

    What gives?
     
    #53
  4. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    I don't think so. I think this will be one of the "regional L-3s" especially since it abuts Winter Nationals, it's in the western "region" and over a holiday so this one I think stays.

    Honestly I think this is a non event with the exception of the draw sizes. To that, win your matches get into tournaments, win more matches get into more tournaments (simple formula really).
     
    #54
  5. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    The Copper Bowl cannot be right after winter nationals. What I have heard is the Dickinsons are not interested in trying to fit into the January 22-24 slot with a 32 draw tournament. It is not enough money and missing the winter national crowd is also a problem.

    No Copper Bowl in 2011
     
    #55
  6. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    Sorry my fault I was reading it incorrectly. I thought it was those slots in addition to 8 more when in actuality the 8 must fit in those slots.

    Honestly, JM it will be fine. Your childs tennis will not suffer as a result of this. On the contrary it may make him / her value each event more as there is limited events to fall back on.
     
    #56
  7. papatenis

    papatenis Semi-Pro

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    The only way for kids to have been competitive with the old system was to be home schooled. It was very difficult for my kids to play L2, L3, and super nationals because their (public) school wouldn't make accommodations for them to miss school for tournaments.

    I think this new tournament system balances out kids that attend school vs. the kids that are home schooled.
     
    #57
  8. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    The Easter Bowl has been reinstated. So we will have a spring national championship next year.
     
    #58
  9. mrmo1115

    mrmo1115 Hall of Fame

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    So back to 4 Supers?

    Also, does this mean to the ones who might not make these events next year, FORCE them to play every national they can from now until the end of the year?
     
    #59
  10. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    Yes, and they must own their age group by years end. Bottom line, between now and the end of the year play every national event possible in your age group and secure the highest ranking possible in your own age group so that way next year it's easier to get into. If you try to play up you will likely "hose" yourself. You wont get into the higher bracket and if you do you will likely not go as far as your own bracket.
     
    #60
  11. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    I am sure there are many ways to manage your tennis schedule. My son has a list of long, medium, and short term goals he is working towards. The two goals that have the biggest impact on tournament selection are … being seeded in the Easter Bowl … and … qualifying for L2 and L3 play in SoCal when he ages up in July of next year.

    To be seeded in the Easter Bowl he will have to move up from his current national ranking of 90 to around 42. You never know for sure but the cut off for seeding at the Easter Bowl last year was 42. He has 995 points now and will need to get to 1350 to reach #42. He will need to reach the semi’s or better in two L3s and the final 8 in an L2. Or a knock out performance in the winter nationals

    To qualify for L2 and L3 play in SoCal in July he will need to achieve a 16’s national ranking of 250. Under the new system a national ranking of 250 will require around 560 points in your best 6 events. (Including doubles) If you can play 6 events and average 80 points you will be in business.

    To receive 80 points in a sectional you must reach the finals in a level 5 event or the quarter finals in a level 4 event. This will be tough as the top 4 seeds in SoCal sectional events will all be top 25 players in the nation, the 32nd seed will be around 300 in the nation; the total draw will be 256 with 15 players in the top 100. He will need to win 5 rounds, beating 3 seeds, the best case is playing both the 8 and 9 seeds who will be top 100 in the national. To receive 80 points in a L3 you must reach the round of 16, in a L2 you must win any two matches (back draw is fine).

    The good news is living in SoCal give us access to two L3 events and one L2 event in the remainder of the year. In 2011 he will have an opportunity to play in one L3 and one L2. The 2011 events will be more difficult to qualify for, but his 14’s ranking will probably get him into the 16’s draw.

    As you can see these goals require different tournament strategies. He thought if over and decided that qualifying for national play when he ages up is the primary goal and seeding at the Easter Bowl was secondary. I advised him to switch the priorities, but I am the adviser and he makes the decisions. So we are planning on playing in the 16’s divisions of all the sectional, L3 and L2 tournaments until next July.
     
    #61
  12. chalkflewup

    chalkflewup Hall of Fame

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    wow -- all that math makes my head spin! maybe i've got it backwards. from the get go i taught my son to ignore the rankings and to focus solely on development. he seldom if ever looks at points, rankings, the seeds etc...

    i find it counter-productive to development to get sucked into the ranking system, particularly in the younger levels (10s, 12s, 14s). perhaps this changes as kids get older.
     
    #62
  13. himynameisNIKE

    himynameisNIKE Professional

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    yeah, i used to be reaaaallly into the rankings back in the day but i've realized it is mostly irrelevant.
     
    #63
  14. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    Well, it is kind of relevant if you want to play national tournaments. There are two distinct paths laid out in my post. Basically, the decision revolves around when you stop playing 14’s and start playing 16’s.

    If you don’t have a plan I am not sure where you end up. If you wait until 2011 to figure it out it is too late. Looking at the numbers helps decide what approach to take.
     
    #64
  15. mrmo1115

    mrmo1115 Hall of Fame

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    I guess my idea of possibly dropping out of the Summer Smash 16s in Sept is over. Hope to get my ranking up.
     
    #65
  16. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    Wow and you are going to do this year in and year out and it only gets more difficult as he gets older...I'm guessing you don't subscribe to the KISS theory.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 18, 2010
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  17. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    No way. You've got to cover your A** for next year.
     
    #67
  18. mrmo1115

    mrmo1115 Hall of Fame

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    Haha mom and tenniscrazed telling me to go down there.

    Guess that seals it then :D

    Only prob I had with it, was possibly missing a couple days of watching the 2nd week of the Open :)
     
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  19. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    Let me know who you're playing. I will scout them for you and give you my take on how to beat 'em. No guarantees but it might be a fun excersise.

    I've been scouting jr's game styles for a number of coaches for years.
     
    #69
  20. mrmo1115

    mrmo1115 Hall of Fame

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    ^ sure thing.
     
    #70
  21. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    Cool let me know. I will do some research and let you know. If it gives you the edge, buy me a pepsi :)
     
    #71
  22. TennisNinja

    TennisNinja Hall of Fame

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    My friend who's 20-something in the nation didn't know about these changes.
     
    #72
  23. Wondertoy

    Wondertoy Professional

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    I APPLAUD the new system. Finally the USTA has made junior tennis competion more sensical. Junior tennis is essential a regional venue. Only when you are a top player in your section do you have the opportunity to compete at the national level. I am sick and tired of the feel good society where every little leaguer gets a trophy for participating and every parent feels their kid has a right to play in a Supernational. Playing at a national is not a right, it has to be earned by rising to the top echelons of your sectional competition.

    justinmadision, the national L3's that you think are nationals are basically well to do families chasing points to get their kids into true nationals. These L3's have weak fields where players and their families game the system seaching for the weakers fields so they can notch national points. The Copper Bowl is the worse one of them all as the competition is laughingly weak, the draws enormous with only one singles match a day so the Dickinson can earned kickbacks from hotels and restaurants from every junior family as they string you along for days on end! They hope for rain. As tenniscrazed succiently said, "Train, get stronger, win your matches. Very simple really."

    I like the fact that the field sizes are being cut. All too often with a 192 draw, first round matches end up at 6-0, 6-1 where kids who shouldn't be at Kalamazoo get killed only to say they competited at the Zoo! All this does is make eveyone else spend another night in the hotel and make the backdraw impossibly long.

    The problem with junior tennis is the inherent "ginormous" cost of travel to compete in nationals. With these changes, the USTA is lowering the cost to be nationally ranked and hopefully decrease the point chasing. When I was a junior, we had an Eastern kid who was from a wealthy family who wasn't good enough to get into the main draw in the sectional L5's as he would lose in the qualies. However, his national ranking was good enough to get him in EVERY Supernational!. His family would game the system by traveling to the weakest L3's all around the country so he could win a first round for points! How absurb was the previous system that such a feat was commonplace among these players who were not good enough but rich enough to game the system!!! These kids should train harder and better, improve their game and earn the right to compete at the national level. They should spend more time and money improving their gamr rather than chase points.

    justinmadision, your kid needs to improve his game so he can effective compete at the higher levels in his section. Traveling to L3's around the country is a fools play for phanton feel good wins. When I was a junior, I rose to a top 30 nationally ranking without playing any L3's, playing only sectionals, national opens and supers.
     
    #73
  24. jigglypuff

    jigglypuff Rookie

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    nice assessment...
     
    #74
  25. chalkflewup

    chalkflewup Hall of Fame

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    Bullseye!!!
     
    #75
  26. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    I have done a more detailed analysis on how difficult it will become for a 14’s player to advance to 16’s and qualify for national play.

    I have looked at the July 2010 National Open in Lakewood CA ( a L2 tournament ) and ordered all competitors by national ranking. Under the new system 28 players will be accepted using the national 16’s ranking list. The 28’th player is Derek K. with a national ranking of 172. That is the new cut off for national play on the west coast. If no players from the next lower age group applied the cutoff would be at position 32 who is Jonathan P. with a ranking of 196. Under the old system, and in this draw, the last player accepted was William C. with a national ranking of 485.

    Just to add some color to how difficult a problem this will become the first alternate for the 16’s division of the National Championship at Kalamazoo was Jason P. Jason has a national ranking of 211. It will be significantly more difficult to get into a L2 or L3 on the west coast than it is to get into the national championship at Kalamazoo.

    Today, to reach a national ranking of 172 a player will need to acquire 918 points. Under the new system, with your best 6 scores, this number will be approximately 714. A player will need to average 102 points in six tournaments including doubles.

    You cannot receive 100 points in a sectional level 5 event. The champion receives 88 points so you will need to average higher in the sectional level 4 events to compensate. To receive 100 points in a sectional level 4 event a player must reach the quarter finals.

    I know the most about competition in the SoCal section so let me give you an idea of how difficult it will be to reach the quarter finals. The top 4 seeds in a SoCal sectional event will all be top 25 players in the nation; the next 4 seeds will be top 80. The total draw will be 256 with at least 10 players in the top 100. A player will need to win 6 rounds, beating 4 seeds. At least one of the seeds will be top 25 in the nation.

    Looking at the boys 14 players in SoCal there is no one who can play at this level. The top 5 players have some wins at the national level in 16’s but no one has a win over a player ranked above 175.

    When you look at the changes being made it is obvious this will be a problem. With the drastic reduction in national play the points from sectional play will become increasingly important and will dictate those players who can play nationally. With 17 sections now each will contribute a more proportional number of national players. With the points available SoCal will have around 12 or 15 national players (total). Currently, SoCal has 16 players in the top 100. Under the new system that number will decrease. The number of players aging up and becoming national players in their first year will be zero.

    It seems like there are three possibilities resulting from this analysis

    1. I am wrong. I missed something in the analysis and players will be able to age up and play.

    2. I am right. The competition committee fully understands how this will work and thinks it is a good idea. Everyone believes that it should be more difficult to play L2 and L2 events in SoCal then it is to get into Kalamazoo.

    3. The committee does not understand the impacts of the changes and did not perform a complete analysis before moving forward.
     
    #76
  27. cmb

    cmb Semi-Pro

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    This post is just pure stupidity. Although I would like to know where you are coaching and what your credentials are as a coach...I won't ask you for that on a public forum. But do you really see what that would do for the level of tennis in the states?? We are trying to ADVANCE the level...not move it backward!!!
    Every college coach I know looks for good players...and everyone knows HS tennis is a joke. Coaches are baby sitters. College coaches with your attitude and opinion is why I tell everyone to try to avoid playing college tennis if they have another option.

    My opinion, play for yourself, try to improve your own game, do what it takes for you to play the game to your best abilities...good luck trying to do that in a college program.
     
    #77
  28. TennisNinja

    TennisNinja Hall of Fame

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    So agreed. HS tennis is a joke. Not just for the top players, but anyone trying to be competitive. Sure, there are some good teams but for the most part the coaches suck, the players except for 1 or 2 usually suck, and practices just suck.
     
    #78
  29. Wondertoy

    Wondertoy Professional

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    justinmadison, we all know that Socal is the most competitive in the country. IN terms of tennis, this is most beneficial for your son as a developing player. You have the best competitive environment in the country to improve your game. Lessons are only $55-60 per hour with some of the best instructors and you never have to pay for indoor courts. Some players who are ranked only in the 50's in Socal section were recruited to play in the Ivies. Spend the time and money to improve your son's game rather than chase points. Some players with work and determination come from Socal and become a major player in the 18s. No one even heard of Dan Kosakowski in the 14s and he is currently #1 in the Tennisrecruiting 18s so it can be done. Don't complain about the new system as an iimpediment. I truly believe the new system is better for USTA junior tennis. They are addressing the biggest problem in junior development and that is the cost. Embrace the new system, save the extra money from L3s and put it into private lessons. Don't worry, everything will work out if you focus on your son's tennis development and not worry about the rankings.

    I had the same worries when I was moving up from the 14s to the 16s. I focused on my game and trained hard. I receive a call off the alternate list for the Easter Bowl when someone in my section bailed due to injury. I was in my 1st year 16s and made it unseeded to the round of 16 knocking off the #7 seed, a player who was in my sector but avoided playing sectionals as he would pull out for injury to get his endorsment fulfilled. He gamed the sytem by traveling all over the country for L3s to be ranked top 15. Making it to the round of 16s at the Easter Bowl put me on the radar with all the college coaches who watched my matches and followed me at the Zoo. This can happen to your son, focus on his game, win matches against ranked opponents and he will get the respect he wants from college coaches. Good luck.
     
    #79
  30. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    You forgot numbers

    4) Train, get bigger, stronger, faster. Win your matches at the sectional level and let what ever happens happen.

    5) Continue to be upset that you are in the toughest section in the nation. Jump up and down ranting and raving about how hard it is for your kid to get into an event. Continue to project this entitlement attitude and be assured he will be ranked somewhere between 500 - 1000 by his 15th birth year, quitting high level tennis by his 16th birth year at which point all this dialog and analysis will be for not.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 30, 2010
    #80
  31. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    I disagree with your premise. I actually believe just the opposite. In the weaker sections the #10 player is not anywhere close to as good as the #10 player in the stronger sections. Using regional play as the guide you will have more weak players in the Supernational draws.

    Let’s do an experiment with actual data. Let’s compare the spread of talent between the #10 player in each section for boys 16’s and the spread of talent between the nationally ranked players between 205 and 222. FYI the cut off for the Supernational 16’s tournament at Kalamazoo was 211.

    Here are a list of players ranked #10 in their section in boys 16’s with their tennisrecruiting.net rankings . I will remove the names and keep class and ranking (separated by class for easier comparison)

    Eastern Junior #59
    SoCal Junior #69
    mid-west Junior #70
    Mid-Atlantic junior #170
    Southwest Junior #196
    Intermountain Junior #205
    Missouri Valley Junior #226
    Pacific Northwest Junior #356
    Hawaii Pacific Junior #784

    Southern Sophomore #33
    Florida Sophomore #34
    Middle States Sophomore #120
    New England Sophomore #154
    NorCal Sophomore #636

    Northern Senior #314
    Caribbean Senior #939

    Texas Freshman #9

    Boys 16’s national list starting with a national ranking of 205. I put their State, Class, and tennisrecruiting.net ranking

    Texas Sophomore #109
    NoCal Junior #135
    New Jersey Junior #251
    Colorado sophomore #142
    California junior #199
    Oklahoma junior #250
    Virginia Junior #151
    Texas junior #176
    Pennsylvania junior #243
    Cal Junior #186
    Hawaii junior #392
    Illinois sophomore #77
    Florida freshman #23
    Cal sophomore #88
    Cal junior #136
    Pen sophomore #120


    If you believe tennisrecruiting.net rankings are a good gauge of skill level it is obvious from the data that current national rankings are a better indication of skill level than regional/section rankings. The regional section rankings are all over the map ranging in the junior class from #59 to #784. The only outlier in the national ranking is the one from Hawaii. Interestingly enough all of his points came from playing in Hawaii with little or no national participation.


    The cut off for the Supernationals in Kalamazoo for boys 16’s was a national ranking of 211. To obtain a national ranking of 211 you need 806 points using your 8 largest point totals. This demands an average point total of 90. If you win one round in the Copper Bowl you get 40 points. That does not do the job. Using L3 events you must reach the final 20 to receive 90 points. Reach final 12 to receive 100 points. Reach final 8 to receive 110 points. Reach final 6 to receive 120 points. You need to average 90 points to make Kalamazoo. Obviously, you cannot win a few first round matches, game the system, and get it. The numbers don’t lie.
     
    #81
  32. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    I will continue to try and make my points using as much data and a deliberate analysis as I can.

    You can continue to try and make your points using unfounded personal attacks on those people who do not agree with your opinions.
     
    #82
  33. Wondertoy

    Wondertoy Professional

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    The number of slots each section gets for the Supernationals is pro-rated to the number of junior tournments players in their respective sections relative to the total junior tournament players in the nation. That is, you only have to compete against your peers in your section! If you can't outperform your peers, tough luck. You are in the same environment as your peers. Being in Socal, your son also has the opportunity to get bonus points by beating nationally ranked players. In weaker sections you don't have that opportunity for bonus points. You are overthinking the situation. Life is not fair so don't expect balance in each section. Anyone who reaches the top spots in their section should be applauded.
     
    #83
  34. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    Under the new system, with less national play at the L3 and L2 levels, the sectional slots are not going to be as important. Each section will have the same number of players represented in nationals. Each section gets to have the same number of sectional tournaments and thus national points. It no longer matters how many players are in the section.

    I understand you position. I don’t agree, but we should just agree to disagree.

    If I were in charge I would attempt to create a system that put the kids with the most talent into the national tournaments. Others think it is fairer to have each section send the same number of kids to national play. It is really just a different way of looking at the problem.

    I don’t think you will ever get the ATP to agree that each country should have a certain number of players represented in a grand slam. If one country has better players the ATP should have a system that enables them to have more players in the slams. How well do you think they would respond to telling them life is not fair and they should be OK with an allotment of players per country?
     
    #84
  35. Wondertoy

    Wondertoy Professional

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    On the contrary it will make sectional slots more important a skids can't travel to chase point as much as they had in the past. I don't think each section will have the same number of slots, we are you reading this?
     
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  36. tenniscrazed

    tenniscrazed Guest

    Actually my point is very founded which I will continue to make without using the massive amount of bandwidth.

    My theory relies on the sound principle of win your matches, do that enough times you will play bigger events.. Conversely, do it sporatically or not at all you will not play bigger events. Very simple, yet quite effective formula.
     
    #86
  37. mrmo1115

    mrmo1115 Hall of Fame

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    Sorry Justinmadison, but WT and TC make points which I agree as well.

    Not saying your reasoning is not right its just that I don't think that this is a bad idea

    If we focus more on our practice we will even strive harder to get to the next level and make these big tourneys.

    It makes us want to hit the courts as much as we can to get stronger, faster, mentally stronger so we can make these events we dream of getting in.

    I know my hopes of Kalamazoo next year are fading because of the limited time I have to get points esp. with the schedule, but that just makes me want to play more and get better.
     
    #87

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