End of year ratings changes

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by damazing, Nov 18, 2013.

  1. damazing

    damazing Rookie

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    Any predictions on how much the national championships effect the ratings downstream?

    I'm in the Mid-Atlantic and my area won the national championships this year (4.0). I played against some of the guys on the winning team and did well against them.

    I would hope that will help my ratings but any guesses as to how much their win will help the people they played against? .01 differential, .015?

    For other sections that won in previous years did people find more people bumped that were edging to the border of a level?
     
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  2. lostinamerica

    lostinamerica Semi-Pro

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    Help your rating is a matter of perspective. If you beat guys or were close with guys who won a lot at nationals, then it will raise your rating. If you want to stay down, it won't be helpful.
     
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  3. Spokewench

    Spokewench Semi-Pro

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    Speculation is fine, but why worry; you will know around December 2nd for sure.
     
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  4. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    If the team from your section / district did well at nationals it will definitely have a inflationary effect on the ratings of people from the region.

    Who knows how much of an effect ... it is all speculation. However, a 0.1 difference in rating is huge and I doubt that a national adjustment would be that severe. Especially for folks that merely played against national champions.
     
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  5. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    I actually wouldn't be surprised by a 0.1 change for a player that had a better than expected result against a player that advanced to and did well at Nationals. I did a report for a player last year that had a dynamic rating of 2.97, i.e. wouldn't be bumped up to 3.5, but had a very good match (3.27 match rating) against two players that went to Nationals and finished 2nd there. The 2.97 player ended up being bumped up to 3.5.

    Yes, assuming my 2.97 was a correct dynamic rating, it would only take a 0.04 swing up to get to 3.01 and result in a bump up, but I can still see situations like this where the boost from the benchmark calculation could be larger.

    This is probably too simplistic a model, but if the benchmark calculation (where applicable) is 50% of the year-end rating, the 3.27 match rating, which could be higher once the long run at Nationals for the opponents is factored in, averaged with the 2.97 would be 3.12 or a 0.15 boost.
     
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  6. Orange

    Orange Rookie

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    Schmke--Could you please explain your statement about a benchmark calculation possibly being 50% of the year-end rating?

    I am about to captain my 9th and 10th teams this spring and am very interested in having an idea which of the players from my previous team are expected to be bumped up, because that would mean I might need to be prepared to recruit some more players.

    We will all have benchmark ratings because we all participated in local playoffs, which we won, and some of us competed in the state tournament. One of the doubles teams went 5-0 in matches at State.

    Thanks for any information you can provide!
     
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  7. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    There isn't much documentation from the USTA on the benchmark calculation, but I have seen mention that it contributes as much as 50% to the year-end rating calculation. If your playoff performances and how the players you played there did in subsequent rounds are consistent with your dynamic rating, then your rating won't really move. But if you did better/worse than your dynamic, then your final rating could be higher/lower than your dynamic rating from the end of the year.
     
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