Federer-Djokovic in the same draw again!

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by juanparty, Aug 25, 2011.

  1. juanparty

    juanparty Semi-Pro

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    what the hell happens with the ATP? could someone explain me? This is getting pathetic, i would like to see Nadal-Federer at the same draw, i think that will never happen. that drawing was fixed again.:evil:
     
    #1
  2. Telepatic

    Telepatic Legend

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    Meh, I won't even bother watching draws in future.
     
    #2
  3. ALL IN

    ALL IN Rookie

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    One has to wonder how much influence sponsor money has. They calculate the potential viewership of a Nadal vs Federer final vs otherwise and run with the numbers. Political type influence.
     
    #3
  4. GOAT BAAH!!!

    GOAT BAAH!!! Professional

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    Why is this still a big deal...?

    Of course the ATP makes this happen...

    Noel may be number 1 but he has not transcended the sport and reached "ambassador" status like Fedal have.

    A Fedal final final gets a$$e$ in the seats guys....
     
    #4
  5. ledwix

    ledwix Hall of Fame

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    God dangit.....I hate this.
     
    #5
  6. juanparty

    juanparty Semi-Pro

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    that's no matter to me, the ATP starts losing credibility, this is a lack of respect to Djokovic,Murray, other players and truly fans around the world.
     
    #6
  7. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    I want Fed to be in the same half as Novak because for once I dont think he will be reaching the semis. So it's only easier for Novak. Murray will be in the final on the other side anyway. So it's all good.
     
    #7
  8. Ripster

    Ripster Hall of Fame

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    Isn't it supposed to be random? It seems to me that #1 and #4 should be in the same section but lately it's been the opposite with Djokovic/Fed, Nadal/Murray every time.
     
    #8
  9. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    Relax everyone. Fed isn't gonna make the semi anyway.
     
    #9
  10. djones

    djones Hall of Fame

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    Hilarious :-D !!
     
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  11. Bud

    Bud Bionic Poster

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    The ITF controls Grand Slam tournaments, not the ATP ;)
     
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  12. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    There's only an 8.33% chance that random draws would put Federer/Djokovic and Nadal/Murray together in 6 consecutive majors.
     
    #12
  13. juanparty

    juanparty Semi-Pro

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    that makes me think than the draws are fixed. captain obvious!
     
    #13
  14. Raistlin

    Raistlin Rookie

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    If you are Djokovic that will be your dying wish lol
     
    #14
  15. Totai

    Totai Professional

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    I dont see why this is upsetting you, rent #1 and #2 supposed to be in opposite side of the draw? #3 and 4 get the other corners
     
    #15
  16. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    Not sure how you are doing the math but actually the chance is approximately 1.5% (1 / 2^6)

    Still does not mean the draws are fixed. For example, odds of any person winning the lottery is like 0.0001%. But yet someone will win it. Does that mean the lottery was fixed?
     
    #16
  17. Max G.

    Max G. Hall of Fame

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    It's almost comical at this point.
     
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  18. ledwix

    ledwix Hall of Fame

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    No, but the odds of someone in existence winning the lottery are pretty high eventually. You just can't predict it for any particular person. Here, we're talking about a particular foursome and being able to predict the draw based on that. And so they are running a 1/1000 or lower type streak right now, for which I would rule out chance at this point.
     
    #18
  19. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    1 out of 2 in one draw, which is 50%. Divide 50% by 6, and you get 8.33%.
     
    #19
  20. ledwix

    ledwix Hall of Fame

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    It's (1/2)^6 = 1/64. There is no reason to divide by 6 unless an event has a 1/6 chance of happening.
     
    #20
  21. Ico

    Ico Hall of Fame

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    What the hell? That isn't even close.
     
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  22. FuriousYellow

    FuriousYellow Professional

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    It seems like all the guys having a good summer hardcourt season are in the top half of the draw: Nole, Fish, Monfils, Stepanek, Tsonga.
     
    #22
  23. BULLZ1LLA

    BULLZ1LLA Banned

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    (Yep, all but Murray)
     
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  24. sdont

    sdont Legend

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    Wow. You shouldn't be talking about probability, man, you're embarassing yourself.
     
    #24
  25. CDestroyer

    CDestroyer Professional

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    If he can't copy and paste it from Wikipedia or Google he can't help ya.
     
    #25
  26. Fate Archer

    Fate Archer Hall of Fame

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    Random generated my ass. This draw is hand-picked.

    Besides, Wawrinka in the same quarter with Murray again. Me thinks USTA wants Murray to fail.
     
    #26
  27. Larrysümmers

    Larrysümmers Hall of Fame

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    djok is seed 1 and fed is seed 3...i dont get the fuss. i really dont. would you rather them fix it so that they meet in the 2nd round?
     
    #27
  28. Ico

    Ico Hall of Fame

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    How about they meet in the final?
     
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  29. Larrysümmers

    Larrysümmers Hall of Fame

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    well fed should step up his game or novak should have tanked and lost some matches so nadal would be 1
     
    #29
  30. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    I divided 50% by 6 because there's a 50% chance "6 times in a row".
     
    #30
  31. Omega_7000

    Omega_7000 Hall of Fame

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    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=383263

    Add USO 2011 to this list,

    2008 AO
    2008 Wimbledon
    2008 USO
    2009 AO
    2009 FO
    2009 Wimbledon
    2009 USO
    2010 AO
    2010 Wimbledon
    2010 USO
    2011 AO
    2011 FO
    2011 Wimbledon
    2011 USO


    (Since Djokovic made his first final in USO 2007)
     
    #31
  32. jbpick920

    jbpick920 New User

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    Mustard, your math is a little skewed. I will use flipping a coin for my example because that 50/50 odds. T

    Hitting heads in a row
    1: 50%
    2:25%
    3:12.5%
    4:6.25%
    5:3.125%
    6:1.5625%

    What ever the odds are you simply multiply it by itself for each consecutive time or take the probabilty to power of the number of consecutive hits. (whichever way makes more sense)
     
    #32
  33. Ico

    Ico Hall of Fame

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    That's embarrassingly wrong. For it to happen 6 times in a row would be represented by .5^6.
     
    #33
  34. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    It's not like they both make the semi every time cause they've only played 6 out of 14. Funny how half of those meeting took place in the last 12 months, tho.
     
    #34
  35. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    I wonder what are the odds that Fed and Djoker end up in the same draw in 21 out of 24 majors. That must be something under 0,1 %.
     
    #35
  36. sdont

    sdont Legend

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    I have a small test for you:
    1) What is the probability of having a 6 with a six-face die?
    2) What is the probability of having a 6 with a six-face die two times in a row?
    3) What is the probability of having a double 6 with two dice?

    Maybe it'll help you understand.
     
    #36
  37. Laurie

    Laurie Professional

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    Even so, this final in New York they've tried so hard to materilaise has yet to happen.

    It's disappointing that this draw has worked out this way yet again.
     
    #37
  38. spiderman123

    spiderman123 Professional

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    Forget going long back in history.

    Just the odds of Federer and Nadal being in the opposite halves of the draw for French Open'11, Wimbledon'11, Montreal'11, Cincinnati'11 AND USOpen'11 were 1/32

    This is very interesting.
     
    #38
  39. PSNELKE

    PSNELKE Legend

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    Seriously what the f´ck is your problem.
    Nole got lucky with Fed in his half, I would be more concerned about Muzz if I was him.
    Fed is not playing at the level he used to.
     
    #39
  40. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    I see what you're doing, thinking that if you get heads twice in a row (25% chance), getting it a third time would halve 25% into 12.5%, but doesn't individual coin toss have a 50% chance of landing on heads, so surely it's 50 divided by 1, 2, 3 and so on.

    1. 16.67%
    2. 2.78%
    3. 8.34%
     
    #40
  41. jbpick920

    jbpick920 New User

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    Maybe itll help you to see it this way:
    I flip a coin once there are two options:h,t
    I flip it twice there are 4 possible sequences hh, ht, th,tt
    I flip it three times there are 8: hhh,hht,htt,hth,thh,tth,tht,ttt
    and so on...

    Does that make sense?
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2011
    #41
  42. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    Hello, My Name is Yogi Berra & I'm a Deja Vu-holic!

    Didn't you guys get enough arguing about probability theory prior to Wimbledon????

    The draw is what it is...let it go! I'm not privy to what went on in the room but it's quite possible randomness does not have a total control over the outcome. It's funny that when ND/Fed were #2/3 they wound up in the same half. Now that it's #1/3, they still link up. It's more reasonable when you look at it that way instead of the "personalization".

    Re: who the culprits are to accuse...not ATP, not ITF...it's a USTA event.

    Re:Fed early demise...weren't the same things being said during Euroclay after unexpected losses to Melzer & Gasquet? What was the RG result? The man knows how and when to peak. I'm not confident he wins it all but I am expecting a Super Saturday appearance.
     
    #42
  43. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    *Brain explodes*
     
    #43
  44. spiderman123

    spiderman123 Professional

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    or in two torunaments the options are
    N: Novak, R: Rafa F:Federer M:Murray

    [NF MR][NF MR], [NF MR][NM FR], [NM FR][NF MR], [NM FR][NM FR]

    So the probability of Novak and Roger being in the same half for both tournaments is 1/4.

    The probability of them being in the same half for one tournament is 1/2.
    "AND" is multiplication.
    So the probability of them being in the same half for first tournament AND the second tournament is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.
     
    #44
  45. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    Try imagining it as a branching path. Each time you flip a coin there are two possible outcomes. Each subsequent flip will split into another two outcomes.

    After 6 flips there are 64 possible outcomes. Only one of these is h-h-h-h-h-h, so the chance is 1/64, or about 1.5%.

    However, the point where a lot of people fall over is predicting the next flip. Many think that after 6 consecutive heads a tails is 'Due'. In reality heads and tails have an equal chance - 50%.
     
    #45
  46. jbpick920

    jbpick920 New User

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    Yeah, I thought about saying this, but I was trying to take it one concept at a time.
     
    #46
  47. sdont

    sdont Legend

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    Now imagine you want to have a double 6 with two successive throws of the same die (because you only have one)... See where I'm getting at ?

    The probability of having N consecutive "heads" with a coin is the same as having "heads" on all of N different coins.

    You got it right on answer 2: 1/6*1/6=2.78%
    You got it wrong on answer 3. It's the same as answer 2.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2011
    #47
  48. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    Actually its been 13 of the past 14 grand slams.

    2011
    USO: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko (order of seeding does not matter, this is simply to show draw placement relative to one another)
    WB: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    RG: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    AO: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    2010:
    US: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    WB: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    RG: Nadal/Djoko - Fed/Murray
    AO: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    2009:
    US: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    WB: X/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    RG: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    AO: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    2008:
    US: Nadal/Murray - Fed/Djoko
    WB: Nadal/Davydenko - Fed/Djoko *(Murray was in Nadals Qtr ranked 12th had not yet established himself...which he does in this with the epic win over Gasquet in R16, winning Cinci Open MS1000, and reaching final of USO)


    What is the mathematics formula to calculate odds for 13 of the past 14 slams, and what are the odds?
     
    #48
  49. jbpick920

    jbpick920 New User

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    impressive sdont. You should have been a math teacher. ha
     
    #49
  50. sdont

    sdont Legend

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    Guess what? ;)
     
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