Federer gets the toughest draw of his career

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by IvanisevicServe, Aug 25, 2011.

  1. IvanisevicServe

    IvanisevicServe Banned

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    That could not have possibly turned out worse for him, short of Del Potro being slated for the 4th round.

    Bellucci in round 2, Tomic, Cilic, or Harrison in round 3, and either Tsonga or Fish in the QF.

    All that just to get to play Djokovic in the SF.

    If he wins this US Open it'll probably be the most incredible feat of his career.
     
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  2. Raistlin

    Raistlin Rookie

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    I see the danger being an inspired Tomic or Bellucci and in the later rounds probably Tsonga (psychologically). Definitely a tough draw but I think it will be final 4 again for Fed at the US Open.
     
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  3. accidental

    accidental Professional

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    lol toughest draw of his career might be a slight exageration
     
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  4. Rippy

    Rippy Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, it's a pretty tough draw.
     
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  5. FedExpress 333

    FedExpress 333 Professional

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    That is a very tough draw.
     
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  6. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, he'll be drained. I guess America doesn't like him now?
     
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  7. Qubax

    Qubax Professional

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    Maybe it's me, but I don't think Tomic, Cilic or Harrison in their recent form are really going to pose much of a threat ...?

    I realize Bellucci might be a little tough for the 2nd round.

    I just see his draw as the depth in the mens game.

    Yah Tsonga or Fish in the QF's would be tough, but this is a grand slam can't expect to have a cake walk to the semi's

    Also, as much as Fed has to get to the QF's to even face Tsonga or Fish.....Both Tsonga and Fish also have to get their themselves.

    Jo Willy like many of the french players can be wildly inconsistent.

    and I don't think Fish can beat Fed at a major to be honest.

    Not saying it is an easy draw, but I don't see it as THAT bad...
     
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  8. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

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    For a 30 year-old Fed, it is. Fed's an UE machine, Fish is on fire riht now, Tomic/Harrison (I don't think it'll be Cillic) are starting to get into their games, and Tsonga's a bad match-up for the current Federer. If he was 25, he'd have little problems with it. But he's not 25 any more
     
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  9. Cormorant

    Cormorant Professional

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    If you're going to include Bellucci as a threat, don't leave out Giraldo -unlike the Brazilian, he actually has a winning record on hardcourts this year and, well, has beaten Bellucci on hard in 2011.

    But really, they're both claycourt specialists, and will just be making up the numbers; Fed has nothing to fear from players who both have losing career records on hard. If you want to find a really testing R1/R2 start for Roger, cast your mind back to 2006 when he had Gasquet then Henman at Wimbledon.

    Cilic has a minute chance of troubling him in R3, as does Tomic, but Harrison isn't threatening him in a best-of-five at this stage. Stepanek or Troicki might be messy in R4 if Fed is careless, but they're still just stumpy hurdles. Tsonga isn't making the Qfs, I feel, and whilst Fish can't be ruled out as a challenge I won't believe he can produce the consistent quality needed until I see it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2011
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  10. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I think if Federer plays Tsonga he will lose. If Tsonga doesnt reach the quarters though (and knowing him there is a good chance he wont) then Federer will be in the semis.
     
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  11. Rippy

    Rippy Hall of Fame

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    Agree with this.
     
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  12. celoft

    celoft Guest

    Compared with the draw he got when he won his last USO in 2008... yeah tough draw this year...
     
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  13. IvanisevicServe

    IvanisevicServe Banned

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    I think the previous toughest draw of Federer's career was 06 Wimbledon. Gasquet, Henman, Mahut, Berdych, and Ancic in the first 5 rounds. He deserved that reprieve against an ancient Bjorkman in the SF after taking that on.

    04 Australian Open was super-stacked at the back-end, with Hewitt-Nalbandian-Ferrero-Safin.

    But this year's draw is even tougher because there isn't just one threat who has to make it to a given round and play Federer. His round 3 is almost guaranteed to be a dangerous is opponent, as is his QF.
     
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  14. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    That was not a tough draw for prime Federer. Only Henman of those had ever been a tough opponent but he was too old at that point. Gasquet, Berdych, Ancic, Mahut, were all easy opponents for prime Federer.
     
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  15. Nadalfan89

    Nadalfan89 Hall of Fame

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    Belluci is a clay courter who's not even in the top 30. Tomic is a teenager who hasn't done anything of importance at all. Does he even have 1 250 title? Harrison is pretty much the exact same as Tomic. Tsonga might be tough. Fish is Federer's pigeon.

    It's a decent draw but let's not exaggerate.
     
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  16. flyinghippos101

    flyinghippos101 Legend

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    Belluci I agree seems a somewhat less credible threat than say.. Tsonga but Harrison and Tomic have really been coming into their games lately. Harrison didn't make two straight semis during the US Open series on sheer luck alone. As much as I hate the guy, he definitely has game.

    You also seem to forget that Tomic make the QFs of Wimbledon, beating along the way legit players like Davydenko, Soderling and Malisse Andreev.
     
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  17. rdis10093

    rdis10093 Hall of Fame

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    tomic is a big guy though, with not so great footwork. Fed's slice will give him trouble.
     
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  18. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Fish in a slam a major threat to Fed? Never thought it would ever come to that for the poor Fed fans :)
    And teenager Tomic? Seriously? Bellucci the clay courter?
    The only difficulty in Fed's draw until semi is Tsonga (and Fed has already beaten Tsonga at AO). If that's enough to make his draw "the toughest of his career", then that says a lot about the kind of draw he usually has: a bunch of clowns out of the top 100. Anything other than that and the Fed fans go into full panic mode. Shame.
     
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  19. rdis10093

    rdis10093 Hall of Fame

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    no one is in panic mode. Fish could be tuff, he took fed to 3 in Cincy last year
     
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  20. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    This is a SLAM. Fish in slam= no go especially vs Fed, yes even 30 years old Fed. It's not like Fish himself is young.
     
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  21. IvanisevicServe

    IvanisevicServe Banned

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    But it's about as close to "tough" as it could get for prime Federer on grass. It's not like Hewitt or Roddick had a prayer of actually beating him, either. Roddick might scare him if his serve was really on, but he couldn't play much better than he did in that 04 final and it wasn't enough to take more than one set.

    This was finally something different than owning Hewitt and Roddick for the umpteenth time. Some strong grass court players he'd never faced before at Wimbledon, and the last two men to beat him at Wimbledon (Henman and Ancic).
     
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  22. jmverdugo

    jmverdugo Hall of Fame

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    I mean is not a cakewalk but it is not "reaaaaaaaaaly" tough.
     
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  23. Rippy

    Rippy Hall of Fame

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    You were saying Fish was a dangerous, in-form player recently.

    You just change your opinions to suit whatever stupid point you're trying to make.
     
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  24. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    ETA: it will only become hard for Fed in semi and final but that's pretty normal.
     
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  25. rdis10093

    rdis10093 Hall of Fame

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    yeah, but the young fish was not a good eater. I think fish will make a dencent splash in the draw.
     
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  26. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I said Fish was dangerous? I don't think so. Less in slam than anywhere else.
     
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  27. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    You should all be rejoicing that he doesn't get Berd in the quarter. Now THAT would be a tricky one.
     
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  28. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

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    My only reasoning is that Fed is older than he used to, and thus a lot more vulnerable. I think he'll get to the semis (my draw on the TTW pool is horrible, so don't bring that up ;)), but he'll be dead tired. 5 years ago, he'd wreck that draw in straights. I dunno about now...
     
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  29. rdis10093

    rdis10093 Hall of Fame

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    The Berdman would be pretty tough for Fed.
     
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  30. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Exactly. So it's not perfect (he doesn't get his friend Roddick :)) but it's better than getting the Berd, no doubt.
     
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  31. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

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    Yet Berdych is more dangerous in slams?

    M. Fish def. Berdych 7-6 6-4 6-4

    Fish is dangerous enough to win against Berdych...
     
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  32. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Actually I sympathize because I have the same doubts about Rafa this year. But come on this is not a good surface for Rafa whereas it's a very comfortable one for Fed.
     
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  33. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    The 2004 Wimbledon matches Federer had with Hewitt and Roddick were very close. Roddick was up a break in the 3rd and could have gone up 2 sets to 1, while Hewitt was up a break in the 4th and could have gone to a 5th set. Ancic and Henman beat Federer at Wimbledon before he was Federer, and while Henman played even a prime Federer tough for awhile he was on his death bed by that years Wimbledon. Still I see your point, it is like Nadal on clay anyway, pretty much impossible to come up with a tough draw for prime Wimbledon at Wimbledon or the U.S Open.
     
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  34. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Was that on hard? When Berd is on, he's much more dangerous than Fish, especially to a guy like Fed who matches well to Fish and not so well to Berd.
     
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  35. d4o

    d4o New User

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    the first three guys you mentioned put fed to sleep, and i'd consider fish and tsonga an annoyance. nothing to difficult about that draw
     
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  36. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Also anyone who thinks Fish will beat Federer in a slam is delusional. Even current Federer. Who cares if Tsonga, Berdych, and Soderling did it, they are legitimate top 10 players (Fish IMO is a cup of coffee kind of one), and have all made a slam final and other semis of slams. They are also much younger than Federer and able to take advantage of the age gap whereas they would have little to no chance vs prime Federer in a slam, or anywhere really. Fish meanwhile is not a great player, nowhere near Federer's league, not a big match player, and unlike those much younger guys is almost the same age as Roger.
     
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  37. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Thanks for explaining it perfectly.
     
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  38. OddJack

    OddJack Legend

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    Nadal has only Murray to deal with.

    Delpo is not in any dangerous shape, and he will never be again. Not in majors anyways.
     
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  39. d4o

    d4o New User

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    why do you say delpo is done for?
     
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  40. OddJack

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  41. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

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    I'm not saying he'll lose to Fish, only that he'll be tired out when he plays Djoker in the semis.

    My only concern is Fed's age handling the energy-usage, not his victory :)

    Even on Rafa's favorite surface, he got taken to 5 by Isner ;)
     
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  42. OddJack

    OddJack Legend

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    I have the same worries, but I also know Rodge has no illusions about his abilities. He knows how to save energy, he's not gonna play for all the service games, he will take his time and makes his moves.
    With a little luck he can pull it off.
     
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  43. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Berdych can overpower Federer. Fish isnt outstanding enough in any area to worry Federer.
     
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  44. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

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    But he'll need as much energy as he can get to play against Djoker :(
     
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  45. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

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    Ahh yes because when was the last time Fed had a bunch of clowns out of the top 100??? You had what almost seemed like a half decent post until you once again let that tardism come through.

    Also again you clearly leave out the has lost to Tsonga in two straight meetings.

    However hands down agreed that this is not Fed's toughest draw ever. Fed might have gotten the toughest draw, but there really isn't anything that tough about it. Nobody got anything really tough as all the tough floaters landed away from the big 4. Harrison or Tomic should neither trouble Fed and Belluci let's be real he'll be lucky to take a set. Fed gets a tough 4th round prospect when he hits Stepanek most likely, but by tough we are talking he might drop a set in a tiebreak or something. Tsonga will be the real test for Fed there. With Isner, Dolgo, Roddick, Del Po and crew all landing out of any of the big 4s path in the first 4 rounds you can't really complain. They all got pretty fair draws.

    Let's be real if Fish beats Fed then Fed frankly doesn't deserve to win the US Open because no offense to Fish, but Fed should be able to beat Fish with ease at a major, especially at the US Open.

    On the clowns ranked outside of the top 100?? Can you find a draw that Fed got until the QFs nobody ranked in the top 100?? If so I will agree with you.
     
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  46. OddJack

    OddJack Legend

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    Berd hast to fly over Djoker first, which is unlikely

    Power players give Rodge problems, He has only Tsonga to worry about
    But Tsonga may go out before he gets to him
     
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  47. Qubax

    Qubax Professional

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    I don't know; Roddick beat Giraldo 6-1,6-3 yesterday. You really think Fed is going to have difficulty with him?
     
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  48. Qubax

    Qubax Professional

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    +1

    10chars
     
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  49. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Belluci on HC....LOL!

    Tomic is a threat based on his style. Cilci I don't where his confidence is and he is going through weird patches of good to bad form.

    Harrison...Kudos if he makes it that far. He had spunk when he last fought Federer but when he played Djokovic there was only small points on brilliance. Though Djoker had problems during Canada. Harrison has talent and potential....but Federer would dismiss him easily.

    Fish and Tsonga....wow what a juicy 4th round.....I would say either of them will troble Federer....but Federer this time will prevail against Tsongas!

    Djokovic....if he is playing like his did before Montreal....fat chance for Fed right now. Though if the matches and shoulder has got to Djoker head....then Fed will plow through Djoker.

    Final: Nadal....Nadal on US open courts...possibly Fed's best chance of beating Nadal outside of WTF. I would see Nadal vulnerable mental state and his style of play not being suited to the Summer Hard Courts. Though Fed backhand has to hold up and he has to play smart. W

    If it is Murray.....Federer better bring out some smack talk to pressure the scot. Hopefully Murray plays well in the final....you never know.


    The draw looks not to hard considering Federer record here....but based on how he got beat in Montreal and Cincy. We can see a Federer leading but only to lose again.

    The onyl tought guys I think are Tsonga/Fish, and Djokovic. If he gets past them....the title is his.
     
    #49
  50. Qubax

    Qubax Professional

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    Be honest, when was the last time...any of us have seen a Top 4 player in the world tired in a match?

    Yah Nadal and Djokovic from over playing have beat their bodies up. That is traditionally, strains, joints, ligaments, tendon issues etc.

    The fact is Federer as with most Top, top pros are in such phenonmenal cardiovascular shape that I don't think Fed is going to lose from being "dead tired"

    Bigger, younger, more talented generations always swept the old guard aside. Fed included. But regardless of who Fed loses too I would be shocked if it is because he is "dead tired"
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2011
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