Federer record vs. top 10

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by bluescreen, Nov 14, 2011.

  1. bluescreen

    bluescreen Hall of Fame

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    Hi guys, I'm performing a statistical analysis of Roger Federer's performance from this year compared to what I consider to be his best year, 2006. One piece of data I'm really interested in is his record vs. the top 10 for each of these years.

    atpworldtour.com gives me the data for this year, but not for previous years. Does anybody know where I can find this statistic for previous years?
     
    #1
  2. angler

    angler Rookie

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    Interesting, but very difficult. First of all, define top 10.
    Let's take Tipsarevic this year. He was top 50, top 40, top 30, top 20 and now he is top 10. Do you mean top 10 at the week Federer played someone or top 10 at the end of the year ranking?
     
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  3. FedError

    FedError Semi-Pro

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  4. FedError

    FedError Semi-Pro

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    It should probably mean top 10 at the time. Soderling is out of the top 10 now but shouldn't Federer's wins against him when he was ranked #5 be counted?
     
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  5. DjokovicForTheWin

    DjokovicForTheWin Banned

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    Ask Mustard he's geeky enough to have it all No insult intended
     
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  6. Sid_Vicious

    Sid_Vicious G.O.A.T.

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    In Mustard we trust. :)
     
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  7. Emet74

    Emet74 Professional

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    It's pretty simple as he only lost to Nadal and Murray that year and Murray was not yet top 10.

    So that would be a perfect record against the top 10 other than Nadal.

    He was 2-4 against Nadal; losing consecutively in Dubai, MC, Rome and RG before prevailing at Wimby and YEC.
     
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  8. Emet74

    Emet74 Professional

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    And BTW, altho' he lost more total matches than in 2006, in 2004 he had a perfect record against the top 10 and a perfect record in finals. (and semifinals)
     
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  9. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Federer's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

    1998: 0-1 (0 winning percentage)
    1999: 1-4 (20 winning percentage)
    2000: 3-8 (27.27 winning percentage)
    2001: 5-5 (50 winning percentage)
    2002: 10-5 (66.67 winning percentage)
    2003: 9-5 (64.29 winning percentage)
    2004: 18-0 (100 winning percentage)
    2005: 15-2 (88.24 winning percentage)
    2006: 19-4 (82.61 winning percentage)
    2007: 17-4 (80.95 winning percentage)
    2008: 7-10 (41.18 winning percentage)
    2009: 14-10 (58.33 winning percentage)
    2010: 15-6 (71.43 winning percentage)
    2011: 5-9 (35.71 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

    Career: 138-73 (65.40 winning percentage)
     
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  10. DjokovicForTheWin

    DjokovicForTheWin Banned

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    What'd I tell ya ;)

    These numbers corroborate Fed's prime was 04-07 and there was a massive decline in 08, I'm sure even the vilest of posters could comprehend this list. The data are the data.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2011
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  11. bluescreen

    bluescreen Hall of Fame

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    Awesome. Thanks so much Mustard.

    And thanks to everyone else too for your inquiries.

    I'll be sure to post my analysis when I'm done. I'm separating Federer's performances into two samples spaces: 2005-2006 and 2010-2011 (I chose 2-year intervals to get larger sample sizes). I'll be comparing the two samples spaces based on overall attributes, and match-unique attributes.

    For the 2-year sample spaces I'll compare his W/L records (combining 05-06 into one W/L record, for example), the numbers of slams won, and the average rank of the players he played at the slams.

    I will then analyze each individual grand slam match he played to compare 1st serve %, 1st serve points won, 2nd serve points won, break points per game (total games played/break point opportunities), and break points converted.

    I'm starting with just the slams for now and will then branch out into Masters and other tournaments (which is why I was inquiring about overall yearly records versus the top 10).
     
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  12. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    this confirms what I was GOING to post, that 2005 was actually probably the better year for Fed. sure, results wise not as much, but playing level definitely.
     
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  13. DjokovicForTheWin

    DjokovicForTheWin Banned

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    But then that would imply that 2004 > 2005 playing level wise, but maybe not true.
     
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  14. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Federer's losses in 2004 were to:

    #11 Tim Henman in Rotterdam QF
    #34 Rafael Nadal in Miami R32
    #39 Albert Costa in Rome R32
    #30 Gustavo Kuerten in French Open R32
    #21 Dominik Hrbaty in Cincinnati R64
    #79 Tomas Berdych in Athens Olympics R32
     
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  15. Emet74

    Emet74 Professional

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    IMO not really since all the 2006 losses were to the same player, Nadal.

    His problem was that matchup (esp on clay where he lost 3 matches); not his overall level of play, at least based on win/loss stats alone.
     
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  16. Bergboy123

    Bergboy123 Semi-Pro

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    What the hell, is Mustard like a book or something? You're amazing!!
     
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  17. purge

    purge Hall of Fame

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    its hard to pick which year was actually his best during his peak because he was just amazing throughout pretty much

    you could also rate 2005 down because he lost a few matches he maybe shouldnt have lost.
     
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  18. Biscuitmcgriddleson

    Biscuitmcgriddleson Professional

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    Stuff like this is why Mustard is the real GOAT :)
     
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  19. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    So Federer is 69-8 against top 10 in 2004-2007.
     
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  20. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    Mustard, can you also share similar stats for Rafa ?
     
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  21. angler

    angler Rookie

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    Must applaud to Mustard devotion to tennis. Well done.
     
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  22. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Of this 8, about 6 or so came against Nadal?
     
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  23. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Sure. Nadal's win-loss record against top 10 players is:

    2003: 2-1 (a 66.67 winning percentage)
    2004: 2-2 (a 50 winning percentage)
    2005: 5-3 (a 62.50 winning percentage)
    2006: 10-3 (a 76.92 winning percentage)
    2007: 11-7 (a 61.11 winning percentage)
    2008: 17-6 (a 73.91 winning percentage)
    2009: 14-11 (a 56 winning percentage)
    2010: 11-5 (a 68.75 winning percentage)
    2011: 15-9 (a 62.50 winning percentage - after Shanghai)

    Career: 87-47 (a 64.93 winning percentage)
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2011
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  24. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    69-10.

    Federer's 10 losses to top 10 players between 2004-2007 were:

    2004
    None.

    2005
    #4 Safin in Australian Open SF
    #5 Nadal in French Open SF

    2006
    #2 Nadal in Dubai F
    #2 Nadal in Monte Carlo F
    #2 Nadal in Rome F
    #2 Nadal in French Open F

    2007
    #2 Nadal in Monte Carlo F
    #2 Nadal in French Open F
    #4 Djokovic in Montreal F
    #7 Gonzalez in Masters Cup RR
     
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  25. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Talk Tennis Guru

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    Very impressive stuff, thanks Mustard :)
     
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  26. _maxi

    _maxi Banned

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    Didn't Nadal play ATP matches in 2001 and 2002? I thought he became professional in 2001.
     
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  27. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Nadal did turn professional in 2001. Nadal started out on the Satellite circuit at the start of 2001, when he was 14 years old. He tried to qualify for the main tour event in Mallorca that year, but lost to Sergio Roitman in straight sets. In July 2001, he played on the Futures tour for the first time, and in September 2001, he played on the Challenger circuit for the first time. 2002 saw Nadal mostly play on the Satellite and Futures tours, with a handful of Challenger tournaments. He tried and failed to qualify for 2002 Barcelona, losing to Stefano Galvani in straight sets, and he did get a wildcard into 2002 Mallorca, winning a match against Ramon Delgado, before losing to Olivier Rochus.

    Nadal virtually skipped the juniors almost entirely. The only junior events he played were 2002 Junior Wimbledon, losing in the semi finals to Lamine Ouahab after he had beaten current pros by the name of Brian Dabul and Philipp Petzschner, and 2002 Junior Davis Cup in France where he won every match he played.

    Nadal's first match against a top 10 player was against the reigning French Open champion, Albert Costa, at 2003 Monte Carlo. Costa was ranked #7 in the world while Nadal was ranked #109 in the world. Nadal won 7-5, 6-3. 1 month later at 2003 Hamburg, Nadal beat world number 4, Carlos Moya, 7-5, 6-4.
     
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  28. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Wasn't Nalbandian ranked in the top 10 when he beat Federer at the 2005 MC?
     
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  29. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    No. Nalbandian was ranked at #12 at that time.
     
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  30. sheq

    sheq Professional

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    Mustard you must be the Goat !
     
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  31. DjokovicForTheWin

    DjokovicForTheWin Banned

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    Hey Mustard, I think the board really appreciates your efforts, but tell us the truth, do you get chicks?
     
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  32. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    Kudos to you Mustard. Great job !
     
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  33. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    "Hey Gorgeous, wanna come up and see my stats?" is one of the oldest chat-up lines in the business. Didn't you know that? :wink:
     
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  34. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    He doesn't. He doesn't have Mustard's charisma, lol
     
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  35. vive le beau jeu !

    vive le beau jeu ! G.O.A.T.

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    2003: 2-1 (a 66.67 flirting percentage)
    2004: 2-2 (a 50 flirting percentage)
    2005: 5-3 (a 62.50 flirting percentage)
    2006: 10-3 (a 76.92 flirting percentage)
    2007: 11-6 (a 64.71 flirting percentage)
    2008: 16-6 (a 72.73 flirting percentage)
    2009: 14-11 (a 56 flirting percentage)
    2010: 11-5 (a 68.75 flirting percentage)
    2011: 15-9 (a 62.50 flirting percentage - after Paris-Boulogne)

    between 2005 and 2007, mustard was at his peak: he got 26 chicks out of 41 (but none in the top 10).

    sorry mus'... just teasing. ;)
     
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  36. Agassifan

    Agassifan Hall of Fame

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    So Rafa is steady against the Top 10, whereas Fed has had ups and downs, but his ups were devastatingly brilliant. Amazed that even in Rafa's best year, he was only 11-5
     
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  37. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    I know all the scores of fed matches on the top of my head LOL seriously so what would that make me?
     
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  38. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    Thanks Mustard, you truly are the stats GOAT :)

    I just put the two side by side for comparison. Federer's prime clearly is 2004-2007 in which he had multiple 3 slam years. On the other hand, Rafa doesn't have a clear prime going by these stats. You can probably say 2006-2011 with 2009 being a slump year.
    The player with the higher winning percentage against top 10 always had more slams than the other, with 2010 being an aberration. Although Rafa won 3 slams in 2010, his winning percentage against top 10(68.75) is less than Federer's(71.43) in 2010 who won just one slam in that year.
    Also, Fed beat a lot more top 10 players in the years he dominated and won 3 slams (18,19,17) while Rafa beat far less(11).
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2011
    #38
  39. glazkovss

    glazkovss Professional

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    And what about Djokovic, Murray?
     
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  40. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Djokovic's win-loss record against top 10 players
    2005: 1-2 (a 33.33 winning percentage)
    2006: 1-7 (a 12.50 winning percentage)
    2007: 6-10 (a 37.50 winning percentage)
    2008: 11-11 (a 50 winning percentage)
    2009: 14-12 (a 53.85 winning percentage)
    2010: 4-8 (a 33.33 winning percentage)
    2011: 20-2 (a 90.91 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

    Career: 57-52 (a 52.29 winning percentage)

    Murray's win-loss record against top 10 players
    2005: 0-2 (a 0 winning percentage)
    2006: 4-4 (a 50 winning percentage)
    2007: 5-6 (a 45.45 winning percentage)
    2008: 10-8 (a 55.56 winning percentage)
    2009: 14-6 (a 70 winning percentage)
    2010: 7-5 (a 58.33 winning percentage)
    2011: 7-7 (a 50 winning percentage - after Paris Indoor)

    Career: 47-38 (a 55.29 winning percentage)
     
    #40
  41. Cup8489

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    Jesus.....
     
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  42. DjokovicForTheWin

    DjokovicForTheWin Banned

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    Pretty much proves that Rafa has simply geared his whole career to beat Roger. Whereas Roger is the better tennis player since he fares better against the field. Hell even at Rafa's peak in 2010, Roger fares better against the field. Very very telling.
     
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  43. dudeski

    dudeski Hall of Fame

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    So basically Nadal's prime started in 2005 which mean Fed competed against prime Nadal since 2005. Which means Fed only had only one year (2004) of his own prime with so called weak competition i.e. without a double digit slam winner being his main rival. In conclusion the so called weak era overlapped only one year (2004) of Fed's prime.
     
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  44. dudeski

    dudeski Hall of Fame

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    2006 was peak Nadal according to those stats. So in 2006 Federer had 92-4 year while dealing with peak year of a 10+ slam winner.
     
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  45. nhat8121

    nhat8121 Semi-Pro

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    if 2006 were the peak year of Federer, what does that make Nadal? Nadal beat Fed 4 times that year.
     
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  46. dudeski

    dudeski Hall of Fame

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    Wrong. Look at the stats again. 2006 was Nadal's peak year. 2004 and 2005 were better for Fed.
     
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  47. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    The french open champion, as opposed to the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and US Open Champion.

    :rolleyes:
     
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  48. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    3 times on clay and once on hard courts where Federer was still injured. Thanks for playing.
     
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  49. DjokovicForTheWin

    DjokovicForTheWin Banned

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    Hmmm, Nadal could beat Fed 4 times that year, yet he won fewer slams. Curiouser and curiouser.
     
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  50. nadalwon2012

    nadalwon2012 Banned

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    So..

    Federer is 65.4% vs top 10.
    Nadal is 65.15% vs top 10.

    Interesting to see who finishes with the better winning% when they retire. Federer's fall from grace has been steep. Nadal being the hard-worker that he is will probably always be consistently decent vs top 10, even in decline.
     
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