Federer will remain #1 for 1 more week

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by smoledman, Oct 25, 2012.

  1. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    All he has to do is beat Paire in the QF...
     
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  2. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

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    I wouldn't count anything for certain judging how he played against Bellucci.
     
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  3. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Are you saying even ******** can't beat Paire?
     
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  4. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Federer will win.
     
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  5. underground

    underground Legend

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    Federer is guaranteed #1 until the end of Paris. This is because weirdly enough the points for Basel, Paris AND WTF are dropping off on 5th November. Which means that on next Monday (29th Oct), Federer would be able to include points for both 2011 and 2012 Basel, dropping of his Halle Final points. However on the 5th November, he will drop 3000 points and regain his 150 from Halle plus whatever he gets from Paris this year.

    So it means that Federer can only gain points in this week, but he will automatically lose his #1 ranking at the end of Paris regardless of any result because Djokovic will only drop 560 points then.
     
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  6. Ms Nadal

    Ms Nadal Semi-Pro

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    Everything always works out for FedEx. What a lucky man!
     
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  7. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Federer has lost to
    Murray, Berdych, Djokovic, Roddick, Nadal in tournament play. Add Tsonga to the list since Rome 2011. It basically takes making a grandslam final to beat Roger these days.
     
    #7
  8. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    Haas beat him in the Halle final...
     
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  9. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    What about Haas in Halle ? Guess Fed tanked to his buddy to stay fresh for Wimby ;-)
     
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  10. MasturB

    MasturB Hall of Fame

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    So Federer can lose the #1 but can he regain it back if he holds his Bercy and WTF points? (I know highly unlikely).

    Just wondering if there's a scenario for him to finish as YE #1?
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
    #10
  11. Ms Nadal

    Ms Nadal Semi-Pro

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    I hope we have a Fed v Djok final at the WTFs! It should be an exciting 3 set match if we get it! :). That would be a fitting way to decide the World Number One! :).
     
    #11
  12. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Fed will lose #1 on 5th november, even if he wins Basel.
     
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  13. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Sure, there is. He *has* to win all three, ie Basel, Paris-Bercy, and WTF (actually, he could still finish #1 with two wins and one final, but Djokovic would almost have to lose every single match he plays until the end of the year for that to happen, so I'm not holding my breath). ;)

    Should Federer win all three, he would end up the year with 12,255 points, ie 845 pts more than Djokovic has at the moment. Which means, basically:

    - Should Djokovic lose in the final in Paris, he will be #1 if he wins more than one RR match at the WTF.
    - Should he lose in the SF or earlier, there is a real opening for Federer, especially if Murray is drawn in Djokovic's group in the Masters, because Djokovic would then end the year at #2 should he win less than 3 RR matches and lose in the semis.

    It's a bit complicated, so there you go, with specific examples:
    * Federer wins everything, scores 3,000 points (845-point lead).
    * Paris-Bercy: Djokovic loses to Murray in the semis, scores 360 points (lead drops to 485 points).
    * WTF: Murray beats Djokovic again at the RR stages, Djokovic ends up with two wins, ie 400 points (lead drops to 85 points) and is #2 in his group. In the semis, he faces Federer, who beats him and then wins the title.

    With this scenario, Federer ends up the year at #1. Not saying that it's your best bet right now, but there is an outside chance... which would of course get better should Djokovic suffer from an early exit in Paris, as Federer could then clinch the #1 spot with "only" a final in either Bercy of London.

    But first, he has to win Basel, of course. Otherwise, it's still possible, but even less likely. ;)
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
    #13
  14. SQA333

    SQA333 Hall of Fame

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    Wow, thanks for calculating this for us. It doesn't seem that far-fetched if Djokovic loses early in Paris, but he's still the heavy favourite.
     
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  15. tennisenthusiast

    tennisenthusiast Hall of Fame

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    You rock!! Nice analysis!
     
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  16. Dark Magician

    Dark Magician Professional

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    So how much will it be?
    302 or 303??
     
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  17. underground

    underground Legend

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    Most likely scenario:

    - Fed defends all 3 titles.
    - Djokovic falls at QF in Paris.
    - Djoker draws Murray at WTF and loses to him, comes out 2nd in his group and plays Federer in SF and loses.

    This way Federer will stay at 12165 points. Djokovic will defend his Paris points, extra 200 for another RR win, loses his 180 Basel points, net increase 20 points, ending the season with 11990.

    See it isn't that impossible. :)

    No Federer will end up with 12165 points if he defends all 3, which is the points he has now. Federer's points wouldn't go up at all since he's defending all 3 titles.

    If the above scenario you gave happened, Djokovic would have 12170 points and just 5 points above Federer.

    Alternatively you can hope Djokovic fails in the RR once again like last year.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
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  18. SQA333

    SQA333 Hall of Fame

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    Paris draw is out, and safe to say we should be able to stop discussing who will finish #1 within the next few days, as it's pretty clear just by looking at the draw.
     
    #18
  19. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    If Federer somehow manages to win all 3 and finish YE#1..

    I dont even know what I'll do. Toast to him on New Year's eve, maybe?
     
    #19
  20. tacou

    tacou Legend

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    this is very odd, why? something to do with Olympics? very strange
     
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  21. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    link to draw? can't find it.
     
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  22. SQA333

    SQA333 Hall of Fame

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    #22
  23. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Yes sorry, my mistake. "Funny" thing is, I was surprised when I did the calculation this afternoon, as the earlier ones I did privately had Djokovic losing 1 round sooner in Bercy to get the same result.

    Reason is, I didn't get Federer's total from his current ranking point total, but from the live rankings... but I forgot that the 90 pts from his Basel QF had already been counted, so I shouldn't have addd the full 3,000 points, but 2,910.

    We'll se week after week, though (or match after match should things get really close)... ;)
     
    #23
  24. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Okay, draw is out, and... outside chance is still there, should Djokovic lose to Raonic or Del Potro/Isner. Tough draw for Federer, though, so Djokovic still very much the favourite. We'll see... ;)
     
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  25. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

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    No, I believe it has to do with the fact that they moved the end of the season back a weeek this year to give the players a longer offseason, thus the dropping of points will not happen this week, because last year Basel was played a week later than it is being played this year.
     
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  26. PeteD

    PeteD Hall of Fame

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    OK he beat Benny Paire. So for those who are not CPA's, how many weeks is this?
     
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  27. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    That'll be 302 come Monday, and he *will* lose it next week. Might still recover it after WTF should the chips fall his way, though. We'll see.
     
    #27
  28. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    Fed-Murray will most certainly be "randomly" drawn in the same group at the WTF to ensure a Fed-Djok or Murray-Djok final.
     
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  29. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

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    While I agree that it's hard to believe the draws are random, I think in the case of the WTF, Federer and Djokovic have to be in different groups. Therefore either a Fed-Djokovic or a Fed-Murray final is inevitable.Actually it would be inevitable even if Fed and Novak were in the same group, if 3 of them make the semis.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2012
    #29
  30. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    My bad, what I meant to say is Murray will draw Fed in the semis for which he has to be in Djoko's group. Things are a little more random despite fixing at WTF because whoever tops group A plays #2 of group B and vice versa. So while you cannot guarantee a certain matchup, you can avoid one. Murray-Djok being in the same group will guarantee that they cannot meet in the semifinal, so I suspect they will place Murray-Djok together. Of course it can backfire like last year where they placed Fed-Nadal in the same group but Tsonga qualified for semis instead of Nadal.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2012
    #30
  31. trenzterra

    trenzterra Semi-Pro

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    Is there any chance of both players ending up with the same points and both sharing the YE #1 rank?
     
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  32. jhhachamp

    jhhachamp Hall of Fame

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    It will be completely random whose group Murray gets put in. Enough of these conspiracy theories!
     
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