Federer's chances of winning RG dead again

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by sureshs, Apr 28, 2008.

  1. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    He showed that he cannot maintain a lead on clay long enough to win against Nadal and will squander it with unforced errors on his forehand. His backhand is always quite weak.

    I predict another frustrating run on clay for Federer, and another year gone by with no RG title.
     
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  2. ATXtennisaddict

    ATXtennisaddict Hall of Fame

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    Most wouldn't doubt it.
     
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  3. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    Typical trash from those who hate Fed.
     
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  4. ATXtennisaddict

    ATXtennisaddict Hall of Fame

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    I'm a Federer fan but I am also realistic. Roger is the underdog.
     
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  5. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    sureshs analysis ignores the changes Federer has made to his game, his new coach, etc. Yea, he's the underdog, but so was Noah against Wilander.
     
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  6. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    But with all his changes, he still could not win. His second serve point percentage was 29% and he made a ton of unforced errors. Like a monkey on a greased pole, he climbs up, only to slip down again.
     
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  7. cknobman

    cknobman Legend

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    After watching monte carlo its obvious Fed has the game to beat Nadal but not the head.

    There is something upstairs that he cant overcome to pull off the win. Every single time when Fed broke Nadal in the match its like a switched turned on in his head that caused him to lower the level of his game.

    Nadal did very little to beat Fed in Monte Carlo. True he fought hard like he always does but there was nothing about his game that showed he was the better player. For 90% of the match Nadal was playing from behind trying to catch up. Feds game was great until he got in the lead and then you could almost see it in his eyes. See that the mental switch in his head turned on, the disbelief, the doubt, the presssure, whatever you want to call it. It caused Fed to let up and gave Nadal the chance to come back.

    Thats one of the best things about Nadal though. His game is always at the same level regardless of situation or score. Fed on the other hand, its all in his head.
     
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  8. Morrissey

    Morrissey Guest

    Nadal probably didn't play his best tennis in MC and still didn't lose a set in the process. Also with a brutal draw. The reason why Fed can't sustain the level is because the serve is taken out of the equation. No holds are easy and Fed is used to holding easy on hard and grass. So it takes pressure off having to grind on every hold game. On clay you are forced to grind and duke it out with Nadal and that's his strength. No one can do it better and on clay you are forced to do it. You can't play a "Blake-style" or Youzhny type game on clay and get away with it against Nadal. It's hard enough to blast him off a hardcourt now imagine on a high bouncing, slow clay court. Near impossible. That's why Roddick sucks on clay, his serve is taken away from him and without the serve he doesn't get the short replies, cheap points and aces. Fed has to rely on hitting nothing but winners from beginning to end because his serve won't give him cheap points or aces like on hard or grass. Not even HE could do that.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 28, 2008
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  9. TheModernEra

    TheModernEra Rookie

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    Don't stir a hornet's nest.....I think Federer had the game to take Nadal yesterday and let him off the hook...and will probably do so each and every meeting until the only match that really counts, RG final.....Call me crazy....but we will see...

    Is Federer the number 2 clay court player in the world? If so, then his demise has been greatly over exaggerated.....
     
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  10. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    Which had more to do with his execution. Even on clay, Federer generally has a good serve.
     
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  11. Morrissey

    Morrissey Guest

    Ok,ok, every year the same story. It's fine. But don't get your hopes up. Just remember that it's a best of 5 match and Nadal is even harder to beat than in a best of 3. But it's fine to dream and predict.
     
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  12. latinking

    latinking Professional

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    He does have has a chance to win, even if its a slim one. It will just be very very difficult. I have said it before,IMO Nadal is the GOAT on clay.
     
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  13. TennezSport

    TennezSport Hall of Fame

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    Completely Agree........

    This has been the issue for these two players since Rafa came into his own on clay. Rafa doesn't have the game to match Fed but he has the mental determination and heart to stay out there long enough to have his opponents self distruct.

    I am not saying that Rafa does not have a great game, if he didn't he would not be were he is today. However, if you look at the winners/errors stats for Rafa, his game is based on getting his opponent to make errors. He is supremely confident in his ability to do that, so Fed or any opponent on clay is under tremendous pressure to maintain a very high level of aggressive play just to stay even; more to win.

    If Fed can maintain the same level of confidence and reduce the UEs, it could be an interesting FO, but that's a BIG IF; only time will tell.

    TennezSport :cool:
     
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  14. coloskier

    coloskier Legend

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    Who's to say that either one makes it to the RG finals. With all the clay court tournaments being packed into a short time, there is the possibility of injuries to any player.
     
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  15. VGP

    VGP Legend

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    Roger would have to have a lot of things go his way to earn the title at RG......

    One would be to not have to face Nadal.

    That Hawkeye is good stuff. The amount of data that can be easily gained is terrific. One thing that Nadal did was to hit like 80/20 to Federer's backhand/forehand off the ground. That with the lefty spin is obviously enough to break into points and break down Federer's game.

    Nothing new, I know......it was just a good graphic
     
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  16. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    I doubt either player will so poorly manage their schedule that they become injured.

    Although I suspect Federer may play more clay-court events this year than Nadal; he can take it more, without getting exhausted or injured, because of his style of play.
     
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  17. tennisdad65

    tennisdad65 Hall of Fame

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    This is especially true for nadal since he is so injury prone. One of these years he will get injured and Fed will waltz to the French title :)
     
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  18. Morrissey

    Morrissey Guest

    Waltz? Fed's waltzing his way to 30 being 27 this summer. Time is almost up.
     
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  19. random guy

    random guy Professional

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    Ok, but what if by some outstanding performace Nalbandian, Djokovic or some other guy (not sure if there's anyone else with a chance) beat Nadal before the finals? I'm quite sure that Federer got a chance if Nadal doesn't show up.
     
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  20. Vision84

    Vision84 Hall of Fame

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  21. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    His chances of winning the FO were never good with Nadal around but to say he has no chances at all is wrong.
     
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  22. flyer

    flyer Hall of Fame

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    ^^^^hahaha, this was for the picture before the last post
     
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  23. ninman

    ninman Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]
     
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  24. jsuwan

    jsuwan New User

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    he has a chance to win FO this year. The ball is round. you never know!!! He clay court game is getting closer and closer to NAdal... Let's go Roger!!!!!
     
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  25. ksbh

    ksbh Banned

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    Yeah right! Been hearing this since 2006.

    Maybe it'll keep getting closer & closer until it is time for Federer to retire.

     
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  26. Dilettante

    Dilettante Hall of Fame

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    It's easy to say that when you're watching on TV.

    Federer has he head to anything, as he has proved for years winning a ridiculous amount of matches and titles. He's the only guy who has beaten Nadal on clay (ON CLAY!!) since 2005. The only one.

    Of course Federer has the head. But just imagine how hard is when the guy is winning 4-0 and Nadal keeps fighting: we're talking about one of the best defenses ever from one of the best claycourters ever and this happened on clay. Not even Federer can play every single point at the same level for ever, and when he happens to slow gears a little bit, Nadal's still there, waiting.

    I'm always amazed of who you people say things such "Fed has the game but not the head". Just look at the slams he's won. Many other players with supposed "more" head couldn't get a single set from Nadal on dirt.
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2008
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  27. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    I think Nadal has not shown his best yet and still won all his matches in straights, while Fed had narrow escapes and 3-setters. Nadal just won't let him escape like the others. He plays very solidly when he is down, while Fed gets impatient when he is up. Like Sampras, Fed relies on his big serve, and when its effectiveness is down on clay, his weaknesses on the FH and BH are magnified.

    If he cannot win against a mediocre Nadal when he had a break in the first set and up 4-0 in the second, do you think he has a chance against him in RG when Nadal will peak? Best hope for him is that Nadal is upset by Davy or Djoker before the finals.
     
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  28. Morrissey

    Morrissey Guest

    I agree with that. Makes sense to me. But the forum has been hijacked by bitter fans. I guess someone else said it better, why be angry when there's many positives to take out of the week? Just think, if Fed had lost to Hidalgo no one would even be in the position to hate on Nadal for beating Fed again. At least he made the final. Before MC started I would not have said that, not many others either. Especially the way he's played this year and the way he struggled in Estoril with a "challenger-like" field (outside Davydenko). He picked up his game for the time since January.
     
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  29. cknobman

    cknobman Legend

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    No one ever said Fed was weak mentally. I said he didnt have the head to beat Nadal, and to be more specific on clay. True he won Hamburg last year but that was the first year for Nadal to play it and it has been home for Roger for years. Yesterday was not the first example of how Roger has folded under the pressure agaisnt Nadal on clay.
     
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  30. Morrissey

    Morrissey Guest

    I wouldn't say "dead" because none of the others seem to have a better chance than him. So he's got a chance. If he makes the final he's got A chance. Very little, but still a chance.
     
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  31. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    I agree with everything you said.I personally can's stand when people say Federer is mentally weak because he loses to Nadal on clay(who just happens to be one of the best ever on that surface),that's a load of BS.Federer showed he has heart and balls plenty of times.
     
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  32. Morrissey

    Morrissey Guest

    I guess when people say he doesn't have the head for it it's excuses from Fedtrolls and also from Fed bashers. I think he obviously has the head since he HAS won 12 slams and was the only one to beat Nadal on clay in his last 99 matches.
     
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  33. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    I was the one who said there were many positives to take from Monte Carlo for Roger and his fans,I was adressing ninman when I said that.I frankly don't understand all that bitternes that comes from some of my fellow Fedfans.Yes he lost to Nadal on clay,so what? Roger was losing to Nadal on clay even in 2006 when he was having the best year of his career(that year he lost only to Nadal and Murray),there is certainly no shame in losing to Nadal on that surface.I mean he almost lost to Hidalgo of all people and after that miracilous comeback he proceeded to beat Nalbandian(who was in very good form after thrashing Robredo) and then even "the new king" Djokovic.This was by far the best tennis Roger has played all year and I think every Federer fan should be glad for that.I'm very happy with the way Roger started clay season this year by defending his points Monte Carlo and winning Estoril.
     
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  34. stormholloway

    stormholloway Legend

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    He's still #2 on clay last time I checked. If he can't win it, nobody else can.
     
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  35. TNT16

    TNT16 Semi-Pro

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    Precisely right - MC was very positive for Fed . . . AND for the game as a whole (by reviving the rivalry which many had pronounced dead).

    Fed also showed shades of Hamburg form during the second set. If both make the RG final clearly Nadal will be more likely to win -- but Fed showed that he *does* have the stuff to beat Nadal. Of course this would require several things - 1. Fed serving well, 2. Fed not falling into Nadal's favorite shot patterns, 3. Fed not choking given the occasion.

    So the point about Fed's head is fair enough - clearly involved with points 2 and 3 above.

    I do think Higueras will help a ton with 2.
     
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  36. danb

    danb Professional

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    You might be right. I wish we see some closer matches - on all surfaces. That would be nice. Boy - even when Rafa didn't play his best he fought hard enough to win. I like this guy.
     
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  37. MEAC_ALLAMERICAN

    MEAC_ALLAMERICAN Legend

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    But the troll looks so hungry. :cry::cry:
     
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  38. edmondsm

    edmondsm Legend

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    I tend to agree with the OP. I see very little evidence that the outcome of this clay season will be any different then last 3 years.
     
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  39. TheNatural

    TheNatural Legend

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    Fed has a chance but he needs a bigger racket and a new secretary to organize that stockpile of Data that he has been collecting from all the clay losses to Nadal since 2004, lmao.
     
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  40. MEAC_ALLAMERICAN

    MEAC_ALLAMERICAN Legend

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    That guy in your avatar, how did he do at the French Open? :twisted:
     
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  41. TheNatural

    TheNatural Legend

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    better than the current crop of yanks. ;):)

     
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  42. MEAC_ALLAMERICAN

    MEAC_ALLAMERICAN Legend

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    Touché sir, now that would shut me up for awhile. :D
     
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  43. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    Well, I think Davydenko said it best when he talked about playing Nadal in the semis of MC.

    Besides, so what if Federer doesn't win the French. He is still arguably the greatest tennis player to ever lace up a pair of tennis shoes. Not being able to win the French in a time when arguably the greatest clay court player ever is playing the game in no way diminishes his mindblowing achievements. So if he is able to equal Sampras or surpass his in slam totals then in my mind he is the greatest player ever.
     
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  44. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    Federer never played Nadal on clay in 2004. It was Guga who cleaned his clock at the FO in 2004.
     
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  45. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    As I said before, Fed is still the biggest threat to Nadal on clay, particularly in best of 3 set matches. In best of 5 (Roland-Garros), I'd say his chances against Rafa are extremely slim. Fed is an excellent clay player, he beats pretty much everybody else but Rafa ( actually in later years if he loses velocity a tiny bit on hard I wouldn't be surprised if clay became his best surface). It's not Roger's fault if Rafa is phenomenal on clay (and I mean that literally, like one of a kind). Excellent is just not enough against a prodigy (Mozart of clay!)
     
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  46. TheNatural

    TheNatural Legend

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    Mabe you should apply to be Fed's secretary. :)

     
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  47. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    Federer is a great clay court player. If not Rafa, he would have won a few FO by now.

    That doesn't mean he does not have a good chance to win FO. Nadal will have off-day or off-weeks. Just look at Federer with mono at AO this year.

    There is no gaurantee that that kind of things will never happen to Nadal.
     
    #47
  48. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    You are welcome for the correction.
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2008
    #48
  49. yellowoctopus

    yellowoctopus Professional

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    I think whatever the strategy Federer used worked to a certain degree; it just wasn't enough to maintain the lead. An boxing analogy would be that Federer developed jabbing technique that works, he just needs a knock out technique to complete the one-two combination.

    A baseball analogy...well, not going to bore you guys.

    If they meet again before RG, look for Federer to try yet another strategy; he will most likely not use the same one at Monte Carlo. Eventually he will try to pull all of the ones (strategy) that worked out for RG.

    Nadal is not your typical opponent for Federer, he has come to respect Nadal in a very healthy way--apparently he doesn't feel the same way with Djokovic.
     
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  50. miniRafa386

    miniRafa386 Hall of Fame

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    lets put it this way: feds chance at winning roland garros are slimmer than nadal winning wimbledon. by quite a bit
     
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