Fed's #1 ranking is in threat

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by roysid, May 3, 2007.

  1. roysid

    roysid Professional

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    In the ATP race (which takes points for only the current year), after Barcelona
    Nadal - 365
    Fed - 346
    This is because Fed did poorly in IndianWells and Miami.

    So, Nadal is already leading. And most probably would increase the lead as Rome, Hamburg and French Open is coming.

    Fed then has grass and hard court seasons to recover. But if Nadal also manages good performances, he might just hang on to the lead. By the end of the year, Nadal could be #1.

    Note: ATP rankings takes the points for past 12 months and it that system the points are 5 times the race points. There
    Fed - 7290
    Nadal - 4890
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2007
    #1
  2. latinking

    latinking Professional

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    Yeah but Fed would have to do bad at Rome and french but most likely he would be in both Finals, but It is a chance. Don't think it will happen but you never know.
     
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  3. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

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    In the Race, leading to the Masters Cup.

    Even if he does get to #1, he still wouldn't be #1 in the entry, unless Roger loses early on Wimbledon and USO, and Nadal manages to at least, defend his points there.
     
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  4. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    What do you mean by "early?" Before the final? Or in the early rounds?
    If they both play Rome, Hamburg and French Open and Nadal beats Federer in the final of all three (unlikley, as I think Nadal will skip Hamburg and Federer will win it) he will have 765 points in the race, while Federer would be 626.
    Let's say, after that, Federer wins Halle and Wimbledon while Nadal makes the semi at Wimbledon and Queens. Then
    Federer = 876
    Nadal = 865

    However if Nadal manages to win Queens or make the final of Wimbledon again he will be ahead of Federer. After that, Nadal has to outdo Federer by a little bit on the US hardcourts and European fall tournaments. It's not very likely, but possible considering that he did just that in March, albeit over a short period of time.
    For now, the race is heating up!! This should be advertised more now. When did this last happen? 2003 when Agassi, Roddick, Federer and Ferrero were battling for the top spot.
     
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  5. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

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    The thing is that you're only paying attention to the race, and the race only cares for the spots at the TMC.

    Yeah, if Nadal manages to go through, and be the race's #1 at the end of the year, it means Nadal had a better year, but unless Fed loses early in those slams, and the faster MS left (and assuming Rafa will defend his points), Nadal won't be #1 in the Entry Ranking (the REAL ranking)
     
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  6. onkystomper

    onkystomper Hall of Fame

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    There is a difference betwen the Race to Masters Cup and overall ranking points on the ATP tour. Even if Nadal wins the race by 100 points Federer will still be well ahead of him in the ATP rankings.

    learn about it here www.atptennis.com
     
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  7. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    Nadal can't increase his lead (in the rankings, not the race because the race is insignificant) on clay because he already has pretty much the maximum amount of points he can obtain on clay. He has to use the grass and hard court seasons if he wants to gain on Fed. Fed is very safe, at least for now...
     
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  8. caulcano

    caulcano Hall of Fame

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    I'll drink to that.
     
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  9. pabloJD

    pabloJD Rookie

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    what do you mean?
    should we read "Nadal leads the race by..."?
     
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  10. JLyon

    JLyon Hall of Fame

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    Nadal only leads the current years points race so right now he is #1 in points race to TMS. He is far behind Federer for overall #1 ranking. Nadal will not pass Federer this year as he has a ton of points to defend in Rome, Paris, and Wimbledon. He could easily defend the clay but I would have hard time believing he can make another run to Wimby Finals. Nadal must have an outstanding Hard Court and Indoor run to make a dent in Fed's overall ranking lead.
     
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  11. caulcano

    caulcano Hall of Fame

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    Either that or Federer has a bad second half year....
     
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  12. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    Which is highly unlikely... And it'd have to be a really, REALLY bad second half year. Like, I think he might have to not play the two majors.
     
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  13. caulcano

    caulcano Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, I was just trying to make a point that anything is possible in tennis.
     
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  14. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    It depends on how much challenge these new generations of players
    (Djokovic, Murray, Gasquet, Baghdatis) will give Federer on fast court.
    (Oh maybe I should include "new old" generations player Canas).

    In the 2nd half of 2007 and 2008, these will be key opponents that
    Federer and Nadal should beat (not veterans like Lubjicic, Robredo,
    Davydenko, Blake). I wouldn't count out Nalbandian because I believe
    he is very talented and can come back any time.

    Asumming Nadal will be unbeatable at clay all thru the season.
     
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  15. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    No Andres you seem to be misunderstanding the Race my friend. Race after the TMC equals = Entry Ranking. Thus Race becomes the "real" ranking.
    Again I 'm unsure of what you mean by Federer losing early? Early as in early rounds? Or early as in not winning the tournament? Cause Federer could make finals and semis but as long as Nadal keeps doing better we will have a new World Number one by the end of the year (or sooner).
     
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  16. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    No you're wrong. Federer could have a good (by ordinary standards) 2nd half of the year, let's say winning a TMS event and maybe a Slam but as long as Nadal maintains his lead in the race he will overtake Federer in the Entry Rankings. But the likelihood of that happening is unlikely, so you're right about that.
     
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  17. Mikael

    Mikael Professional

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    IIRC Race on Dec 31st =/= Entry ranking because there are minor differences in both systems, but of course barring a few points (or tens of points) here or there it is the same.

    Nadal being no1 at the end of the year is unlikely but possible, I'd say there is a 30% chance more or less. It all rests on his hardcourt and indoor performance, because he can't really improve on his clay and grass points, only do worse. Federer OTOH I can see doing better on clay (like winning the French Open or Roma). Then Federer's problem is that he can't really do better than last year, except the loss to Murray in Cincy I believe he was undefeated after the French. So after the French Fed has basically no way to go but down, or duplicate his 2006 performance, which is highly unlikely in my opinion. However even more unlikely in my opinion would be a significant improvement for Nadal on hardcourts, he is just too vulnerable there. So I predict the gap will tighten between the two, but Fed will still be no1.
     
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  18. roysid

    roysid Professional

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    I agree with you Mikael. Only that the last tournament in the year is TMC which is in November. After that ATP race and rankings list become same.

    I feel that Nadal will do better than last year. He didn't reach a single semi-final after Wimbledon till Sanghai. But Federer is expected to perform better than Nadal and maintain the lead.
     
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  19. Baghdatis72

    Baghdatis72 Hall of Fame

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    You never know what could happen this year and huge surprises do happen once every few years so maybe this is the year for a huge surprise. Perhaps it's time for another player to manifest and stop Federer from winning the Wimbledon or the US Open. Maybe Nadal has bad draws in both events and goes out from the second round or maybe Canas ousts Federer in the US Open from the 3rd round and Roddick reached the final against Nadal.
    Also Djokovic might take out Federer in the US Open or Wimbledon and deprive him of crucial points. After all this year Federer has the most competition for the last 4 years that he's been number 1 and several players start blossoming very fast (Canas, Nadal, Djokovic) and this will make things really hard for him compared to previous years where he won the Wimby and US Open quite easily.
     
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  20. GOD_BLESS_RAFA

    GOD_BLESS_RAFA Semi-Pro

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    who knows? Djokovic may do well in the US Open and Murray in Wimbledon...to disturb Federer
     
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  21. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    No, there is no difference.
     
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  22. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    If Federer wins a slam, Nadal would almost certainly have to win the other 2 for the year to beat him. But, as we've seen, Nadal always sucks it up quite nicely after the clay season (it carried over to grass a little last year). He will not overtake the #1 spot from Federer this year, barring some kind of extraordinary event. It just won't happen.
     
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  23. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic Scenario: Believable
    Murray Scenario: Unlikely, IMO
     
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  24. Zaragoza

    Zaragoza Banned

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    "Always" or in 2006? Because he won Montreal and Madrid in 2005. He will get better results after Wimbledon than last year. QF in the USO and SF in the Masters Cup (biggest events after July) were not horrible results. He is a better player now. I don´t understand why some people are surprised that he can improve his game at 20.
     
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  25. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    I suppose the word "always" is a bit extreme. I'm sure he is a better player this year, and I won't deny that. But we've seen him lose to players that Federer consistently beats (Blake, Berdych, and co.) and it's likely that he'll come across these players. It would appear that Federer's only real hurdles to jump over are Nadal and Cañas. Nadal has many more hurdles (except, of course, on clay).
     
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  26. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

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    If Fed wins a slam, it's around the same points Nadal has earned for the two MS shields he won and Fed didn't.

    Nadal may not win Wimby or the USO, but he can make it up winning Montreal/Toronto and/or Madrid, as he has done it in the past.

    If Nadal keeps this rate in hardcourts master series (played very well in Miami and Indian Wells), this race is going to be niiiice!

    But I'm expecting Fed to remain #1 by the end of the year, with a 1000-1500 pts margin.
     
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  27. kimizz

    kimizz Rookie

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    EDIT:I sayd something Zaragoza mentioned allready...

    About the Fed losing nr1 spot. Everything can happen, never say never. There is approx 4000points for federer to defend after clay season.(WIMB,USO,Canada,Madrid and the masters cup+some atp events) If you think Nadal has it tough defending few clay titles look what Fed has to win...
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2007
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  28. kingbishop

    kingbishop New User

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    Well... it is plausible for Nadal to take the #1 spot, because he will win the rest of teh clay season, make it to the wimbledon finals(possibly win if he adjusts) , then make it to the US open finals, then also win many of teh masters series tournaments in between. Of course winning wimbledon and teh US open will be tough for Rafa, i believe that he can. Everybody talks about the Roger slam(hoping he will win all surfaces in one year), but by next year im pretty sure we need to start talking RAFA SLAM!
     
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  29. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    Really? It's one thing for people to assume Roger will be in the finals at wimbledon (he's won it 4 times in a row now) and the US Open (won it 3 times in a row). It's entirely another for people to assume Nadal will get to the Wimbledon final, as last year was a bit of an anomaly - as I've said before, a player who uses extreme spin like that shouldn't ever make it anywhere on grass. He's also not had a good result at the US Open. I'm sorry folks, but odds are he won't be surpassing Federer anytime this year, and it won't probably won't happen next year either.
     
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  30. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

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    Quarterfinals seems like a good result to me. Youzhny was on fire that day.
     
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  31. kingdaddy41788

    kingdaddy41788 Hall of Fame

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    Let me rephrase: He hasn't made the final yet, so there's no reason to expect that he will.
     
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  32. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

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    It's like saying Fed wasn't expected to win Wimby, cause he didn't make it to the final in his 4 previous attempts.

    Nadal is steadily improving on hardcourts. A USO final, in my opinion, is not out of the question.

    He's been playing impressively on hard this year, beating Roddick, Djokovic, Chela, Ferrero, Clement, Verdasco, Baghdatis, Andreev, Murray, Wawrinka (and neither of them are slouchs on hard).

    I believe the best of Nadal is yet to come.
     
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  33. Hops

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    #33
  34. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    #34
  35. Hops

    Hops Rookie

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    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=1351602&postcount=51
     
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  36. caulcano

    caulcano Hall of Fame

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    Current Race pts is calculated from tournaments beginning 01 Jan 07 until now.

    Current Rankings pts is calculated from tournaments in the last 12 monts.
     
    #36
  37. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    I know but you're taking my quote out of context.
     
    #37
  38. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    I'm sorry, but I'm not buying into the whole, Nadal the all surface player just yet. What happend to his much anticipated '07 Aussie Open title? People had all but given him the trophy for the AO. Some people completely want to overlook the beatdown that he suffered at the hands of Gonzo at the AO and the fact that he barely got past Murrary. Yes, he did win the IW this year. I'm not taking that away from him, it was a great win. But the bottom line is certain players still have his number on hardcourts. And I'm willing to bet that those same players can have his number on grass as well if he would ever face them. I mean you can almost just pencil in Roger Federer into the final of any tournament he enters (not counting the IW and Miami anomalies this year). But can you say the same for Nadal when he isn't on clay? Let me put it this way, I wouldn't bet my life on it.
     
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  39. edmondsm

    edmondsm Legend

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    Unless Fed goes out early in Rome and at the FO. Fed could lose a lot of points and the gap would narrow considerably. And since Rafa doesn't have a whole lot to defend on the summer hard-courts a good performance there could have him and Fed neck and neck.

    Judging from past results though, I would say the more likely senario is Nadal losing a bunch of points by going out early at Wimbledon which would almost guarantee Fed another year end #1.
     
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  40. pabloJD

    pabloJD Rookie

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    #40
  41. iplaybetter

    iplaybetter Hall of Fame

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    Fed will not do that badly, he will keep his ranking
     
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  42. kimizz

    kimizz Rookie

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    I agree that the AO expectations were too high for Rafa, there was no sign that he could have won the tournament.

    Then bout the certain players having numbers on Nadal. Seeing how much Nadal has improved this year on hard courts I think he might turn those numbers around soon. I mean why not? Hes talented, just because he hits with western FH doesnt mean he cant win at Hard courts.

    So federer is always the favorite apart from the miami IW anomalies? Thats just it. Before the tournaments it was pretty obvious for most that Fed is going to win them. So why this cant happen in USO for example?

    This topic is bout Federer losing nr1 place this year, yeah its unlikely to happen this year. Id say next 2-3 years are intresting and will tell who was right, the Nadal or the Fed fans. Too soon to tell if Nadal can or cannot win majors outside clay...
     
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  43. federerfanatic

    federerfanatic Banned

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    The only reason Nadal won Madrid and Canadian Open that year was Federer did not play. So pretty much won by default. The 3 Masters events Federer chose to play that year he won.
     
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  44. illkhiboy

    illkhiboy Hall of Fame

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    Seeing that Nadal had a close 5-setter against Federer at Miami that year, and beat him at Dubai on a fast hardcourt in early 2006 I wouldn't say that Nadal's victories in the TMS events were only because Federer wasn't playing. But hey, you're free of using reason, so troll on..
     
    #44
  45. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    There are ever increasing number of signs that new generation of top players
    (Djokovic, Murray, Gasquet, Badhdatis, Nadal) are taking over the tour.

    Federer successfully defeated a generation of challege (Safin, Hewitt,
    Roddick and Nalbandian) and dominated the tour for 3 years.

    Let's see how Federer handles the next wave of challenge.
    These new players are not the kind of players like Robredo, Davydenko,
    Blake, Gonzales, Lubjcic et al.... These are much much better talents...
     
    #45
  46. federerfanatic

    federerfanatic Banned

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    In your own little fantasy world maybe. I live in the real world. Nadal is doing exactly what he did the last 2 years, dominating on clay, occasionaly winning an event on hard courts but usually losing in the quarters to a flat hitter, same old same old. He is the clear #2 like he has been for 2 years now, great but second fiddle to the king. Djokovic and Murray are progressing but still nowhere close to challenging Federer yet. Djokovic is closer then Murray right now though. Wait until Djokovic or Murray even got past the round of 16 of a grand slam before you suggest they are starting to take over the tour though. Murray has lost in the semis of his last 2 Masters events to Djokovic 6-2, 6-3 and 6-1, 6-0. If Djokovic is embarassing him like that in his biggest matches, he isnt even close to being part of a takeover of anything yet.

    Gasquet and Baghdatis are particularly ridiculous to bring up as guys "taking over the tour" right now, just ridiculous. Gasquet is having pretty good results but he is coming up with no big wins either. He is showing he cant even beat Robredo in a round of 16 of a hard court slam, or beat Roddick in the round of 16 of a Masters event even though Fed and Nadal are humiliating Roddick when they play him in the same events, or beat a has been Ferrero in the quarters of a Masters event on clay. Baghdatis is the funniest of all, he has lost 4 straight 1st rounds, and he lost in the 2nd round of the Australian Open where he was defending his final result to Monfils of all people. Yet he is one of those starting to "take over the tour". Boy I would hate to see how he would be doing it he was actually sucking. Baghdatis's 2006 year was a fluke, plain and simple, he isnt anything more then a one-time top tenner like Schuetler and Lapentti.
     
    #46
  47. federerfanatic

    federerfanatic Banned

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    You dont win squat for getting close. Federer won, Nadal didnt, period. Which is exactly what the Nadal groupies like yourself would say if someone brought up the Rome match last year, and rightfully so.

    Not a Masters event. Federer is harder to beat in Masters events then smaller touranments, and then harder again to beat in Slams then Masters. So your point is?

    Federer played 3 Masters events on hard courts in 2005. He won all 3. Federer did not play 2 Masters events on hard courts in 2005 that Nadal played, Nadal ended up winning. In 2006 Federer played all the Masters events Nadal was in, Nadal ends up winning 0. Not rocket science.
     
    #47
  48. tlm

    tlm Legend

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    I would love to see rafa take over #1, but i dont think it will happen this year.I do think he has a chance of doing it in the next year or so.Nadal has got get better on the hardcourts it is that simple.

    I dont think he will ever play very good on grass, but he doesnt need to.He will be the king of clay for quite a while, but he has to improve on the faster surfaces to really give fed a run!!
     
    #48
  49. pow

    pow Hall of Fame

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    It is only in danger if he stops being Roger Federer.
    ... or gets a doping ban.
     
    #49
  50. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    federerfanatic, I just want to make it clear that when I say "taking over"
    does not necessarily mean taking over Federer. I meant top players in general.
    To be more specific, I meant those "other" top 10 players I mentioned in the post.

    No offense but you seem to be very sensitive about any remote suggestion
    that there is something threatening Federer's reign. So I want to make it
    clear.

    After I made it clear, I definitely think it's not such a "fantasy" world I'm living in.
    It's a reality and already happening. Djokovic and Murray already in top 10.
    I think Gasquet and Bagdhatis will join them pretty soon like within a year or so?
    (Oh, I'm pretty sure Gasquet will be in top 10 bunting out "other" players
    within 3 months). These guys will be more solid top 10 players sooner or later
    and these will be the players Federer must beat. And these players are much
    better talents than players like Robredo,Davydenko,Lubjcic,Blake,Gonzalez etc..



    P.S.

    I already know you have different opinion on Gasquet and Baghdatis.
    IMHO, Gasquet and Baghdatis are much bigger talent than Djokovic.

    I know it's a eye of a beholder thing. "Talent" I mean.
    What can I say, you see something different from what I see.

    Anyway, let's enjoy our bet...
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2007
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