How do you all feel about this? He had to outperform Ferrer by ~1800 points from now until the end of the year to end as #4. I think that, barring some awesome, miraculous, wonderful streak; he will not end in the top 3. I think that the top 4 is still a possibility. Here is my predictions for Federer. Even as a big fan, these are my most realistic predictions. Hopeful (Federer will have to play better than he has in the last few months) Win at Gstaad - There is very little competition here, and if he does lose, then you can count on the rest of the season being terrible. [250 points here] SF at Rogers Cup - I would hope that he would get to the SF here, but he will may have a QF exit. [360 points here] Win at Cincy - Even in lower form, there are few players that can beat him here. [1000 points here] Final at USO - I really want his years with a GS final streak to continue and I think that it is possible for him to do this. [1200 points] Win at Shanghai - These are the perfect indoor conditions for him. [1000 points] Win in Basel - His home tournament, back to win the crown [500 points] Final at WTF - Only Djokovic, Murray and Delpo could beat him, so I think that he could make the finals, going 2-1 in the RR [800 points] So, if the stars align for the next 5 months he could amass 5110 points. The worst part is that, even if he were to do all of this amazing play, he would still probably barely end in the top 4. Now for the realistic version: Win at Gstaad - There is very little competition here, and if he does lose, then you can count on the rest of the season being terrible. [250 points here] QF at Rogers Cup - [180 points here] Final at Cincy -[600 points here] SF at USO - [720 points] SF at Shanghai - [360 points] Win in Basel - His home tournament, back to win the crown [500 points] SF at WTF - Going 2-1 in the RR [400? points] So, realistically, he will probably get around 3010 points. If he were to do this, Ferrer would have to have a pitiful end to the year to let Federer end in the top 4. What are all of your thoughts?