For Federer to end 2013 in the top 4

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Def, Jul 22, 2013.

  1. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    How do you all feel about this? He had to outperform Ferrer by ~1800 points from now until the end of the year to end as #4. I think that, barring some awesome, miraculous, wonderful streak; he will not end in the top 3. I think that the top 4 is still a possibility.

    Here is my predictions for Federer. Even as a big fan, these are my most realistic predictions.

    Hopeful (Federer will have to play better than he has in the last few months)

    Win at Gstaad - There is very little competition here, and if he does lose, then you can count on the rest of the season being terrible. [250 points here]
    SF at Rogers Cup - I would hope that he would get to the SF here, but he will may have a QF exit. [360 points here]
    Win at Cincy - Even in lower form, there are few players that can beat him here. [1000 points here]
    Final at USO - I really want his years with a GS final streak to continue and I think that it is possible for him to do this. [1200 points]
    Win at Shanghai - These are the perfect indoor conditions for him. [1000 points]
    Win in Basel - His home tournament, back to win the crown [500 points]
    Final at WTF - Only Djokovic, Murray and Delpo could beat him, so I think that he could make the finals, going 2-1 in the RR [800 points]
    So, if the stars align for the next 5 months he could amass 5110 points. The worst part is that, even if he were to do all of this amazing play, he would still probably barely end in the top 4.

    Now for the realistic version:
    Win at Gstaad - There is very little competition here, and if he does lose, then you can count on the rest of the season being terrible. [250 points here]
    QF at Rogers Cup - [180 points here]
    Final at Cincy -[600 points here]
    SF at USO - [720 points]
    SF at Shanghai - [360 points]
    Win in Basel - His home tournament, back to win the crown [500 points]
    SF at WTF - Going 2-1 in the RR [400? points]
    So, realistically, he will probably get around 3010 points.
    If he were to do this, Ferrer would have to have a pitiful end to the year to let Federer end in the top 4.

    What are all of your thoughts?
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
    #1
  2. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    Your realistic version is indeed.. realistic. I think that's sorta how Federer will end his year. Although to be honest for some reason I don't think he will win any tournaments. He just doesn't look like he can win that many matches in a row. For example now in Gstaad, who says he will beat Wawrinka? And at Basel, wasn't Nadal playing?
    Anyway, I'm pretty sure he can't end 4th. He can end 5th though and he should at least do that. Ending behind Berdych would be a shame..
     
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  3. Morj

    Morj Semi-Pro

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    Good to see he is not being overestimated. I believe he will perform somewhere in between your "hopeful" and your "realistic". He is still Federer and i dont doubt that he still has it in him to pull off a surprise win or final at one of the big events
     
    #3
  4. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

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    yes, Federer ending up ranked below that ladyboy voiced mental midget Burdych would be a very gloomy end to the year..:?

    Bomas Turdych ranked above The Fedster ??? :shock:..naah, can't happen.. :confused:
     
    #4
  5. swedenparty

    swedenparty Rookie

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    Roger Wins Paris and wins WTF.
     
    #5
  6. Tenez101

    Tenez101 Hall of Fame

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    I have a hard time seeing him even getting to the SF at USO at this rate.
     
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  7. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    I think he has to count on the top four to not play as well, I don't think he can count on winning by himself.
     
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  8. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Ferrer is defending a lot of his points towards the end of the year, so it's possible that Federer could gain more points while going deep or winning Cincy, and getting to the semifinals of the US Open if he doesn't draw Nadal.
     
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  9. Omega_7000

    Omega_7000 Hall of Fame

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    At this point who cares about ranking. I just want him to make successful runs at the majors and WTF.
     
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  10. papertank

    papertank Hall of Fame

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    I think the rest of his year will be a mix between what you've described. I don't think Fed will continue to do awful the rest of the year, but he's not going to suddenly win everything either. I also think Ferrer is to do worse during this half of the season than he did the first half (which was his best 6 months of tennis ever) so it'll definitely be close. It'll be interesting to see who takes the spot.
     
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  11. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    How soon can he overtake Nadal for the 4th spot? I still think he will finish the year in the top 4. We are going into his best part of the season, and I think he will outperform Nadal by leaps and bounds for the rest of the year.
     
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  12. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    That's a load of bunk. What GS has Fed won this year? How many points thus far has Fed won v. Nadal? Please stick to facts to support your arguments. Has Fed won multiple Masters 1000 this year like Nadal?

    Fed may end up ahead, but it certainly is not based on anything in this years performance thus far. Don't be so disingenuous in your arguments.

    Edited as a test to see if future postings get modified.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
    #12
  13. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Ferrer won't defend his Paris title for sure.
     
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  14. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I'm going mostly on the fact that Fed almost always outperforms Nadal during this time of year, and definitely outperforms him in the fall. The last time Nadal won a title in the fall was 3 years ago in Tokyo. I really do think Fed will take the 4th spot sooner or later because Nadal can't seem to get it together this time of year.
     
    #14
  15. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    Most likely not. But, Fed needs to count on other folks ahead of him not doing well, and Ferrer is the most likely candidate if Nadal shows up for hard courts and earns decent points.
     
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  16. OKUSA

    OKUSA Hall of Fame

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    Facts are Federer has outperformed Nadal after Wimbeldon in every year, even the year Nadal won the USO. Will he get the #3 ranking from Nadal? Probably not
     
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  17. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    I am perplexed as I could have sworn the post I replied to initially said Fed had already outperformed Nadal for the year. Maybe, I read the post above. Earlier, I made a post and saw it 3 times. I modified it once and then saw only the new post. It was weird, and I attribute it to my iPad that also auto corrects in ways I don't like.
     
    #17
  18. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    I don't get it, I could have sworn I was responding to a totally different post of yours.

    Very weird.
     
    #18
  19. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    If you're taking about my post that you replied to, I assure you that I did not say that Fed has outperformed Nadal so far this year. That would be idiotic since Nadal has won 7 titles, 3 of them masters titles, and a slam while Fed has only won a 250 event.
     
    #19
  20. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Maybe your iPad is possessed. Lol.
     
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  21. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    No, put iPads do like to auto correct, and I often don't notice before posting. Previously, it changed Very to Ivory, and I had to edit. But, seeing 3 duplicate postings, 1 after the other was there after refresh on a different thread.
     
    #21
  22. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Talk Tennis Guru

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    I've grown to like this stuff from you :)
     
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  23. rkelley

    rkelley Hall of Fame

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    Honestly, the USO is the only thing that matters. The only way that has a hope of happening is if he's healthy. I'm not sure that he is (back). There have been a couple of times this year where he's really looked lame (as in hurt). That Indian Wells match against Rafa was bad.

    He never seems to talk about his physical state, so who really knows outside his inner circle. The USO is a good surface for him so he should play there if he's at all healthy. Perhaps play as little as necessary before the USO, just to get used to the new racquet, play the USO, and then take six months off to get ready for W 2014. Blow off the Australian and the French and let the body recover for one last charge and winning slams. If he's really rested and healed he might have a couple of more slams in him.

    But, maybe time is just the enemy. Nothing here lasts forever, not even Fed.
     
    #23
  24. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    Haha, lets not talk about Federer possibly overtaking Nadal's #4 spot. Nadal is about 4500 points ahead of Federer in the Race so I don't think that's going to happen.

    The only way for Federer to end in the top 4 realistically, is for him to win the US Open I think (which isn't even realistic tbh). That would pretty much even out the points difference between Federer and Ferrer and then it's up to who does best in the other tournaments.
     
    #24
  25. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    Fed would have to ourperform Nadal by around 5000 points between now and the end of the year. If my hopeful sitiation were to happen, and Nadal were to not play a single match from now until the end of the year, Federer would edge out ahead of Nadal.
     
    #25
  26. snowpuppy

    snowpuppy Semi-Pro

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    Is it me or even the "realistic" version feels a bit hopeful.
     
    #26
  27. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    Wow, just realized that if Federer doesn't reach the SF of Gstaad he will fall behind Berdych in the rankings. If he makes the SF he will be 10 points ahead of the Berdman. ---- For the race

    Also, for everyone who is taking about how Ferrer will wont defend all of his points: That doesn't matter, I am here to talk about the YE ranking, so the underlying point is that Fed has to outperform Ferrer by ~1800 points.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2013
    #27
  28. jackson vile

    jackson vile Legend

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    Let's see, 1) Federer was disposed of by a nobody on what is supposed to be his best surface, 2) His back is absolutely killing him and has it taped up really bad, 3) Things are so negative that he decided to switch his entire racket all together.

    And you are thinking the best? He is going to end up #4?

    Let's be honest here, Federer is going to have to pray to god that he does not drop out of the top 5-10 in 2013.

    He will have to play a lot of tournament that he would not otherwise, and this may help, or it may backfire and hurt his back even more.
     
    #28
  29. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    Not much chance of Fed getting back into top 4 this year. He has too much ground to catch up on with Ferrer.

    But after that no real difference if he is #5 or #8.

    It is possible but not likely that he will drop below #8. In order to avoid that, he has to outperform only one of the following for the rest of the year: Berdych, Tsonga, Delpo, Wawa.
     
    #29
  30. vladap

    vladap Rookie

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    larger frame? oh, wait...
     
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  31. Def

    Def Semi-Pro

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    Well this was all shot down the drain...
     
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