How can you find out your "dynamic rating" ?

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by christo, Dec 20, 2012.

  1. christo

    christo Hall of Fame

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    I want to see how close I am to being bumped up. I have come to believe it's based on dynamic rating? Where can you determine that? Seems to me if I crush a weak player that dynamic rating can go down. Also there seems to be a correlation to the amount of matches played.
     
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  2. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    It's not public information.
     
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  3. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    The USTA only publishes year-end or early-start ratings and only to the half point (NTRP level). However, I can create an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Report for you if you are interested that estimates your dynamic rating to the hundredth and shows you how it changed match to match.

    See http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/usta-tennis/example-report and http://computerratings.blogspot.com/search/label/tennis for more information or contact me at computerratings@techrunning.com.
     
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  4. goober

    goober Legend

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    If you know someone in the USTA you may be able to get it "off the record." I have heard of people getting this info. If you have a B or C rating you can't be bumped till next year or if your league has ESR, this summer.
     
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  5. floridatennisdude

    floridatennisdude Hall of Fame

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    Even if you get it, it supposedly changes with every match played
     
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  6. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    Not just supposedly. It does change with every match played. The reports I generate will show the individual rating for the match and then the updated dynamic rating.
     
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  7. goober

    goober Legend

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    yes it changes every match, but that would still be a huge advantage having that single point in time value especially if it is late in the season. If you knew you were being very close to being bumped you could lose your next match by a lot. If you were somewhat close, you could make the match close but still win.
     
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  8. floridatennisdude

    floridatennisdude Hall of Fame

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    Hmmm, I'm interested. Do you charge for it or do you just need test subjects?
     
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  9. jmnk

    jmnk Professional

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    That's easy. Are you beating opponents at your current level comfortably every time? Do you have like 33% or more winning percentage when playing against folks with a higher rating? If yes to both - you are close.
     
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  10. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    I do charge as it does take a bit of time to do, and alas I'm not in a position to do them for free. The cost depends on how many and what leagues/playoffs/tournaments you played in and what is counted in your section, but is usually less than you'd pay to have your racquet restrung. Contact me and I can give you a specific quote.
     
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  11. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    No good can come out of knowing your DNTRP.

    Just play each match hard, and whatever happens, happens.

    Or to put it another way: Would you change your behavior if you knew your exact DNTRP, and if so, how?
     
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  12. floridatennisdude

    floridatennisdude Hall of Fame

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    That's ok. I'm curious, but not that interested.
     
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  13. emilyhex

    emilyhex Rookie

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    This is a site that has done some dynamic ratings estimations for people in the Florida and MW sections. It won't be the same as the USTA, but I think it's a pretty decent guestimate.

    http://www.tennisleaguestats.com/
     
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  14. christo

    christo Hall of Fame

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    No, my behaviour wouldn't change but my awareness would, I for one, don't like the mystery that shrouds a lot of what the USTA does. For instance if I play an NTRP tournament I know EXACTLY how many points I will receive but I can win all my league matches and have NO CLUE about my dynamic rating and now that I am aware that I can thrash a weaker opponent and have that rating decline, well that's typical USTA absurdity. At that point you may as well give every player in a given level, a handicap, like they do in golf.
     
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  15. storypeddler

    storypeddler Semi-Pro

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    LOL. Yes, a lot of us probably would. I'm not saying I/we would necessarily start throwing matches, but I'm just as happy winning a match 7-5, 7-5 as I am winning a match 6-0, 6-0. The net result to me would be the same, yet those two scores would be treated far differently by the computer. I'm sure this is exactly why the USTA keeps dynamic ratings secret---so that players can't help themselves in this way.
     
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  16. TommieF

    TommieF Rookie

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    True. Risky situation making the dyn rating public. That could get real ugly fast.
     
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  17. Jack the Hack

    Jack the Hack Hall of Fame

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    There was a flaw in the USTA system a few years ago that would reveal the exact DNTRP number. Basically, as I recall, if you appealed your rating on the USTA site, it would send you an e-mail. At that point, if you took that e-mail and displayed the source coding/header information, the DNTRP number was contained within this data. After learning about the flaw, I tried it myself and it was true. I had been bumped up that year, and my appeal was denied. It turned out that I was 0.01 points away from the threshold to be automatically granted the appeal. (In other words, if you were within the 0.01 and 0.05 range from your former rating, they would let you go back down... but I think I was a 0.06.)

    Anyway, this is all a moot point now because someone informed the USTA about the hole in their system and it was fixed. I'm sure that some enterprising person can hack their system if properly motivated, but the easiest method might be through human subterfuge. I had thought that USTA League Section Coordinators had access to this information, but that might also be outdated information.
     
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  18. OrangePower

    OrangePower Hall of Fame

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    I think they still do. I know someone that works at the local league office and offered to tell me my DNTRP, but I'd rather not know.
     
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  19. NumbersGuy

    NumbersGuy Rookie

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    Indeed they still do.
     
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  20. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    DNTRP info is not supposed to ever be disclosed from those who have access to it to those that don't. If it could be proved someone was giving that information out I have to believe it would be grounds for firing or dismissal from that privilege altogether. However, it would not surprise me that if in some inner circles somewhere in the USTA that info is leaking out from time to time.
     
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  21. colowhisper

    colowhisper Semi-Pro

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    I tried Schmke's computer model score and found the report very interesting. A few matches that I lost bumped me higher than some of the matches I won handily because of the other players rating. It made me realize how important every game is to the "system" and actually inspired me to play tougher against some opponents. For the price of a grip or two it's worth doing just for fun and he's a nice guy to boot.
     
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  22. christo

    christo Hall of Fame

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    This could be bigger than Watergate! Civilizations could tumble, USTA officials could lose their credibility, aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!
     
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  23. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    Yea, you're the kind of player who by looking at the rankings/ratings pre-qualifies and plays out your match before it ever starts. You're my favorite kind of opponent, the one who's more concerned about the outcome before the match even starts instead of planning on how you need to play the next point.
     
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  24. ChicagoJack

    ChicagoJack Hall of Fame

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    Some what related questions, regarding how the dynamic ratings are calculated.

    Do wins at court 1 matter more than wins at court 3? Most teams around here tend to play straight up early in the season. But lots of teams will stack in a tight playoff towards the end.

    Do wins against certain opponents mean more?

    Thanks!
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2013
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  25. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    No. What court you play means nothing, only the score and the current rating(s) of your opponent(s) (and partner as well in doubles) matters.

    No more weight is given to any specific match based on opponent when calculating dynamic ratings. However, the algorithm does give more weight to your recent matches through the averaging that is used.

    Of course, the stronger the opponent the greater opportunity there is to generate a high match rating, but this match doesn't mean more because the opponent is strong.

    Now, not to confuse the subject, but year-end ratings do have a component that comes from calculations based on matches against benchmark players and so these matches do mean more for year-end rating purposes. But this benchmark calculation is not part of the dynamic rating calculated throughout the year.

    If you are interested in getting an estimate of your dynamic rating, see http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/usta-tennis/example-report and contact me.
     
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  26. ChicagoJack

    ChicagoJack Hall of Fame

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    thanks schmke, much appreciated
     
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  27. Chelsie1

    Chelsie1 Rookie

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    _______________________________________________________

    I have found the estimates of this service to be very accurate and the cost very reasonable.

    Being 60+, I do not want to be moved up. I have way more opportunities to play at my current level. I do not win all of my matches. Having an idea of my NTRP allowed me to better manage my playing schedule. When I reached the threshold, I just stopped playing.
     
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  28. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    Yes, I think that is a flaw in the system. There isn't enough weight given to wins and losses. A 4.5 guy with a big serve and not a terrific return game may beat another 4.5 guy in a tiebreaker. He may beat a similar 4.0 guy 6-4, which would dramatically lower his level. He may lose to a 5.0 guy 4-6, which would dramatically raise his level.
    If he is rated a 4.0, he would never be bumped up even if he wins all his matches and if he is rated a 5.0 he would not be bumped down even if he loses them all.
    A 4.5 level consistent grinder at the same level as the above example may beat the other 4.5 guy in a tiebreaker, but beat the 4.0 guy 6-0, 6-1 and lose to the 5.0 guy 0-6, 1-6. He would quickly be rated properly at the 4.5 level by the computer.
     
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  29. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    You are right, the NTRP system isn't perfect. I'd certainly do things differently if I were doing it from scratch, particularly around factoring in wins/losses and not just game differential.

    But remember, the primary goal of the NTRP system is to try to ensure competitive play. In the case of the first player you mention (the 4.5 with the big serve), his matches are competitive at 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0, so there isn't a need for him to be moved up or down, the goal of competitive matches has been achieved, so he is "correctly" rated.
     
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  30. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    Yes, I see your point. The scores are competitive even if the outcome of the match is never in doubt. Still, someone shouldn't be stuck at a level where they know that they will always win playing weaker players or always lose playing stronger players. I don't think the current system is terrible, but if they ever do re-look at the algorithm, they should put more weight on wins and losses.
     
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  31. jmnk

    jmnk Professional

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    which would all even out at the player would stay at 4.5
    I'm confused. What do you mean '4.0 player would win all his matches'? Surely he would not win all his matches against 4.5 or 5.0? Similarly 5.0 would not lose all his matches against 4.5 or 4.0?

    which would be again correct and expected. So in what scenario is the ranking system flawed?
     
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  32. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    You are misunderstanding - maybe I didn't write it well.

    In the scenario, the big-serving player is a 4.5 and would win about half his matches in 4.5.

    However, if the player is originally mis-rated as a 4.0, he would not be moved up to his proper rating despite winning all his matches for years.

    Similarly, if he is mis-rated as a 5.0, he would never be bumped down to his proper level no matter how often he loses because the scores are close even though he is, and forever will be, winless.

    I'm not saying the system is terrible, just that it needs to put more emphasis on who wins the matches.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2013
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  33. NumbersGuy

    NumbersGuy Rookie

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    Seems like a hypothetical and rather rare player to me – not the “big serve, lousy return”, I see plenty of those, but the guy whose typical result vs. a 4.5 is a 3STB win, typical vs. a 5.0 is a 4 and 4 loss, and typical result against a 4.0 is a 4 and 4 win. I’m not sure such a player exists, but even if he does, I’m OK with any system that works for 95%+ of the population. You really can’t hope for better than that, IMHO.

    Nevertheless, I would also favor a change to the system that gives some weight to win/loss, but for other reasons.
     
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  34. jmnk

    jmnk Professional

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    I'm sorry, I still don't get it. when you say 'winning all his matches for years' - you mean against similarly rated 4.0 players? If so - he would surely be moved up. having 100% winning record against same-rated players for multiple years would surely bumped him up eventually

     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
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