How many more Slams does Federer need...

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by cueboyzn, Jan 17, 2011.

?

How many more Slams does Federer need to put his record out of reach?

Poll closed Feb 7, 2011.
  1. His record is safe as it stands on 16

    21.2%
  2. He needs one more Slam to be safe

    6.1%
  3. Two more would put it out of reach

    18.2%
  4. Three would settle it beyond doubt

    9.1%
  5. He needs 4 to reach the mystical 20

    45.5%
  1. cueboyzn

    cueboyzn Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2007
    Messages:
    991
    Location:
    SA
    To ensure he stays clear of Nadal as the all time Slam record holder when he retires, even after Nadal himself, is retired?

    Is his record (16) safe as it stands?

    Would 1 or 2 more Slams do it?

    Or would he need 3-4 more Slams to put it beyond doubt?

    Let's put this out there for the sake of this argument: If Federer won just 2 more Slams from now until his retirement, Nadal would need to repeat his entire career to equal Federer.
     
    #1
  2. viduka0101

    viduka0101 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    2,329
    there's no safe number
     
    #2
  3. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2010
    Messages:
    4,854
    Location:
    Jersey
    20. You never know, maybe one of his daughters will marry Nadal's son (when he has kids) and breed an all-powerful, true Fedal
     
    #3
  4. dlk

    dlk Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2009
    Messages:
    2,789
    Location:
    Indy
    WOW:shock:. That would be amazing. LOL, good post.
     
    #4
  5. [Z]engin

    [Z]engin Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2011
    Messages:
    284
    16 might be enough,

    but I would prefer Roger having 20 slams. It's a nice number. :)
     
    #5
  6. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Nadal has potential to win 22. So he needs 24 or so to be totally safe.
     
    #6
  7. kevoT

    kevoT Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    747
    Location:
    sweden
    I think 3-4 should be good, but we'll see.

    When federer was at the stage nadal is, was there the same worry about him passing sampras'? I don't seem to really recall anything; being 10 in '05 I doubt I was really concentrating on the tour :)
     
    #7
  8. wilkinru

    wilkinru Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    995
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    10 more?

    Nadal might be here for a while kids.

    I am a huge ******* for the record.
     
    #8
  9. dandelion_smiley

    dandelion_smiley Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2010
    Messages:
    974
    delete post
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2011
    #9
  10. caulcano

    caulcano Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2006
    Messages:
    1,637
    4 more would probably put it out of Nadal's reach.
     
    #10
  11. P_Agony

    P_Agony Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    13,186
    Last year I predicted that the USO will decide who will hold most slams ever. I said if Nadal wins it, he will pass. If Fed wins it, Nadal will never pass him, and if both don't win it, it will remain undecided. Sadly, Nadal has won it so I think he will pass Federer.

    What Federer needs to do is to stick around as long as he can trying to win as many slams as he can (won't get easy with age) and try to stop Nadal.
     
    #11
  12. Nadalfan89

    Nadalfan89 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2009
    Messages:
    2,307
    I think Nadal has no real competition at the FO, so I honestly don't think another 5 FOs is out of the question. I think Nadal can win another 3 Wimbledons. Maybe another AO or two? I don't think he'll get another USO.

    I'm think Nadal finishes with 18-20 grandslams so Federer would need at least 3.
     
    #12
  13. dandelion_smiley

    dandelion_smiley Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2010
    Messages:
    974
    Seriously 5 more French Opens? Out of the question?
     
    #13
  14. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,212
    Laughable.

    Rafa has been on the tour since 2001, there's a lot of milage added up during those 10 years. Even if he gets a new legs implanted to play for another 10yrs, still, no way in hell he's going to win 13 more slams.
     
    #14
  15. Legend of Borg

    Legend of Borg Legend

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    7,960
    Location:
    Pazardjik, Bulgaria
    The question is not applicable since Rafa will win 42 GSs.
     
    #15
  16. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I think Nadal has a goal to catch Agassi in hard court slams. So he will win another 4 or so hard court slams.

    He also has the goal to catch Federer in Wimbledons I think. So another 4 or so Wimbledons.

    French Open he will probably win the next 4 or so.

    So another 11 slams or more.
     
    #16
  17. TBrady

    TBrady Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2010
    Messages:
    295
    Location:
    On a court hitting big top
    I will be very suprised to see Nadal win 16 majors. I think his knees are going to need replacement soon which will put Rafa out for a long time.
     
    #17
  18. Underhand

    Underhand Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2008
    Messages:
    6,212
    Location:
    Serve'n Valley
    The entire question is irrelevant because Donald Young will win more Slams than Federer and Nadal together.
     
    #18
  19. viduka0101

    viduka0101 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    2,329
    he has 9 at the moment
    after 9 years on tour
    what are you smoking my friend?
     
    #19
  20. P_Agony

    P_Agony Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    13,186
    5 FOs? Someone will eventually beat him on clay as well, and Nadal won't always be the best he is now. This year its pretty much a given but who knows, next year someone else might win it. If Soderling could beat him, others can too.
     
    #20
  21. P_Agony

    P_Agony Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    13,186
    And even in the last one he will say "oh no, for sure I am not favorite to win chere, no? Very very tough players, no? For sure I need to play my best to chave my chances, no?".
     
    #21
  22. Markov

    Markov Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2010
    Messages:
    462
    20 slams has to be enough for a while... Though I doubt Nadal has enough time to reach even 16. But there will eventually be someone who'll top Fed and Rafa no matter what they do.
     
    #22
  23. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,212
    The problem is some people are predicting his future basing on his current form(winning the last 3 slams). And when he was in a severe drought in 2009, some were questioning his future(some even written him off).

    I remember there's a thread about Federer chances to win 30 slams when he was #1. Crazy!
     
    #23
  24. P_Agony

    P_Agony Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    13,186
    Who will become the future champion of "The Biggest Loser" :)
     
    #24
  25. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,212
    I want some of those weed too. :)
     
    #25
  26. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2010
    Messages:
    4,854
    Location:
    Jersey
    someone already has beaten him on clay, don't you remember?
     
    #26
  27. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    7,405
    Simple maths shows how improbable it will be for Nadal to achieve 20 slams. He's 24 now. With 6 years straight winning an average of 2 slams a year he would achieve it by age 30.

    Can anyone really see him winning 2 slams per year, every year for another 6 years - much of which will be post-prime and, more to the point, when many of his peers and the new breed are all fighting fit? He might do it a couple of times but the odds really are stacked against him doing it 6 years straight.

    Even Sampras got knocked off his sure-thing Wimbledon perch a few years before his final slam win.
     
    #27
  28. aceX

    aceX Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,906
    Location:
    In position
    Federer will need 20 more
     
    #28
  29. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2010
    Messages:
    4,854
    Location:
    Jersey
    he'd need 20+ to have the record, depends how you are counting. Rosewall is ahead with 19
     
    #29
  30. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    There is nobody on the horizon to challenge him on clay. Eventually that player will come, most likely not until Rafa really slows down with age, but he isnt visibly coming up now. Only fluke like losses (eg- the Soderling one) can prevent him from winning the French for now.

    Donald Young being one of the highest ranked 21 year olds (maybe still the highest) sadly speaks to the pathetic up and coming core at the moment.
     
    #30
  31. Docalex007

    Docalex007 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2005
    Messages:
    2,660
    Location:
    London/Berlin
    t
    You're not a big fan of logic and rationality, are you?

    That's the most absurd thing I've heard all day. Read some books on probability theory and randomness. :)
     
    #31
  32. aceX

    aceX Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,906
    Location:
    In position
    Nalbandian will beat both of them
     
    #32
  33. dandelion_smiley

    dandelion_smiley Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2010
    Messages:
    974
    I think if Nadal losses at the French Open (this year or next year or whichever), he won't win it again. Nadal hits 25 by the time the FO comes up and this is probably his last "natural" peak year. Every single player starts to decline at 25 most, some do earlier, so Nadal is looking well when he's doing well. We'll see how he goes when he drops his form a little
     
    #33
  34. Manus Domini

    Manus Domini Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2010
    Messages:
    4,854
    Location:
    Jersey
    no, not every player. Look at Agassi
     
    #34
  35. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Many players have peaks years past 25. Even looking at more modern players. Agassi's peak year was at 29. Lendl's last peak year was probably in 1987 at 27, but 1990 at age 30 had potential to be his best year ever but just didnt all come together. Muster had his peak year closer to 30. Even Federer had another peak year at 26 in 2007. Someone like Navratilova had her last peak year at 30, LOL!

    The thing too is Nadal does not need to be at his peak to win the French anytime soon. Who can beat him. Federer isnt going to win another French at this point. Djokovic is an outside threat at best, Murray is no threat. Del Potro even if he recovers is a long shot to win there especialy over Nadal, as is Soderling. And the rest as well as the so called up and comers (who!?) are barely a footnote.
     
    #35
  36. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2008
    Messages:
    17,159
    Location:
    Toronto
    Absolute Maximal peak in 22-28! After that body starts slowing down...especially tennis player who go through that huge stress of the tour. Only happy tennis players like Federer who is a goofball will decline past 30! Nadal complaining about the season is evident.

    I do see Nadal winnning up to 16 slams but Federer isn't worried I bet. Only trolls who want to spur something up. Federer can win more slams up to 21. Even if he doesn't win any....no one can deny his legacy and even if Nadal reaches past Federer is slams. Federer is still the best of the era along with Nadal. Neither one getting over each other!
     
    #36
  37. aceX

    aceX Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,906
    Location:
    In position
    #37
  38. Azzurri

    Azzurri Legend

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2006
    Messages:
    7,884
    Location:
    Next door to Elisha Cuthbert.
    Nadal will be bald before he turns 30.

    Fed should be good with 16 for a long time, but you never know. Many of us thought 14 was safe for longer than 10 years, so anything can happen. Nadal has a chance. I could see him winning 3 more FO and other 3-4 AO,W and USO's...so yes he could reach it over the next 4 years or so. But as someone said, he would have to play at the level he played in 10 unlike 09. But looking forward to all the tiny little feddie fans squirming!!!

    oh, by the way Fed is/has been playing Nads may never catch Fed.
     
    #38
  39. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    5,114
    Nadal is undoubtedly the greatest clay-court player, but the FO is a young mans game and the idea that with his style of play, he can win it another 5 times seems pretty nuts.

    Is it possible? Yes. But it would be an insane reach, and incredible accomplishment. Hardly something that would be easy to do. I'd say 2 more is a safe bet.
     
    #39

Share This Page