How will Nadal's lower rank impact RG?

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by Backbored, Mar 18, 2013.

  1. Backbored

    Backbored Hall of Fame

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    I was listening to the ESPN announcers discussing this, but got no clear idea if this was a good or bad thing for Rafa. They were talking about how RG relies on computers instead of people.
     
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  2. President

    President Legend

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    If Nadal is in good form, I don't think it makes much difference for him. To be honest, the only ones who can even challenge him on clay are Djokovic, Del Potro, and Soderling (basically retired), so it doesn't really matter what his ranking is. For other players, yeah it can make a big difference. It would be disastrous for Djokovic to have to play Nadal in the QF, since he is definitely the 2nd best claycourter now.
     
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  3. Backbored

    Backbored Hall of Fame

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    Thanks for your observations. This part of tennis (how it’s determined who plays who, and in what bracket) is hard for me to get my head around
     
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  4. Djoker

    Djoker Rookie

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    This.

    Unless somebody comes along and catches lightning in a bottle like The Sod did back in '09, it doesn't make a whole heap of difference how high/low ****** is seeded at RG.
     
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  5. cucio

    cucio Legend

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    As far as I know every tournament relies on a fixed numeric formula to calculate seeding, so singling out RG for it seems a bit strange.

    Nadal being #5-8 instead of top-4 is not a very important change.

    In the hypothetical case that everyone lives up to his seeding and Nadal to his role of untouchable clay behemoth, he will get a top-4 on quarters instead of semis, so he will have to beat three top-4 instead of just two, which doesn't seem too tall an order for him in RG. This, BTW, is rather bad for the tournament and even for Nadal himself, because sweeping yet another title doesn't look that awesome anymore :-|

    For the rest of the top-4, it means one of them gets QF points instead of SF, which is also not Earth-shattering. Both Ferrer and Murray are probably not a lock to get to SF, especially if they get DelPo or Berdych in their quarters.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2013
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  6. TennisJC

    TennisJC New User

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    Don't forget Isner - took him to 5 sets last year at RG. Also knocked out Roger in Davis cup... Someone like Gulbis or Tsonga would have to smack winners around all day to make a dent on Rafa; plus best of 5 sets against Rafa is like climbing Mt. Everest (has anyone *ever* beat him in the 5th set before on clay??)
     
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  7. Backbored

    Backbored Hall of Fame

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    I got the impression that the other GS took into consideration what the players had done in the past at the event in their calculations, and not relied solely on the computer. However they were talking so fast back and forth, that I couldn’t keep up.
     
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  8. cucio

    cucio Legend

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    AFAIK Wimbledon is the only GS that does something like that, but that's still a fixed, objective formula based on ATP ranking points. They use computers too, only British bytes travel on the left side of the data bus.
     
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  9. marc45

    marc45 Hall of Fame

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    no.........
     
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  10. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Isner did not take Nadal to 5 sets at RG last year.
     
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  11. TCG

    TCG Semi-Pro

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    Doesn't matter even if Rafa is ranked 100 in the world, he is still going to breeze through any draw at RG to claim is 8th title.
     
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  12. tennisnj

    tennisnj Professional

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    Nadal beat Isner in 5 sets @ the 2011 French Open, not the 2012 FO.
     
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  13. Raz11

    Raz11 Semi-Pro

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    Nadal is already ranked 4 atm. By the end of Miami he will be at least 90 points behind Ferrer so if he can defend everything from last year as well as do well at Madrid (which is to be expected) then he will be 4 by RG.
     
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  14. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I firmly believe he will be #4 at RG.
     
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  15. Spider

    Spider Hall of Fame

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    I think it will impact those that see Nadal's name in their side of the draw. Nadal could care less unless we get a Nadal - Djokovic quarter final.
     
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  16. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

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    Agreed. Djokovic is the main threat. You would also argue that playing Djokovic earlier rather than later favours Nadal even more, the more natural clay courter.
     
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  17. coloskier

    coloskier Legend

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    If Nadal and Djoker are on one side of the draw, and Fed and Murray on the other side, it will mean a Fed/Nadal final.
     
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  18. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

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    Murray would take out Fed I think, more athletic these days and more stamina.
     
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  19. mightyrick

    mightyrick Hall of Fame

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    We've all watched Nadal in these last few tournaments. I think we all know it doesn't matter where he is seeded.

    He is going to mow through everybody until he gets to the final.
     
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  20. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    He just got the number 4 ranking....I think Ferrer can not defend all his clay points.
     
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  21. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    No, he's back to #5 because he skips Miami (-600 pts). Ferrer is playing there and might make a good run, I'm too lazy to look how he did there last year but since he's seeded third he can make a good SF run if he doesn't screw up like in IW.

    About the clay season, Rafa can only gain points at Madrid, but he has a LOT of titles to defend. If he loses 2 M1000 finals to Djokovic he's already dropping 800 points. He's good enough to go through the clay season unbeaten, but obviously even for someone like him the chances of that happening are less than 50% (i would say)
     
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  22. mightyrick

    mightyrick Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic is in a really bad situation, too. What's he got... three M1000 titles to defend and three M1000 finals appearances to defend? Four of those are hardcourt. Two are clay. Then... add Roland Garros and US Open finals appearances?

    In the slams... I think he will probably be able to defend the finals appearances. But in the M1000s? With Berdych, Nadal, Del Potro, Federer, and Murray... this is going to be very tough. It is going to be tough for anybody. Djokovic will be heavily challenged starting at the QF of all these M1000 events.

    However, he's far enough out front right now that as long as no single player takes all of these titles... he's probably pretty safe at #1 for awhile.
     
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  23. TennisJC

    TennisJC New User

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    Yep, you're correct 2011 not 2012 =P ...My point was that Isner can be a threat
    Who else do you know that can take the king of clay to 5 sets (outside the big 4)?
     
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  24. ark_28

    ark_28 Hall of Fame

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    Excellent point! Even Djokovic and Federer have never taken Nadal to 5 sets at the French Open!

    Big John's serve had some nasty kick in that much V Rafa and he gave the king of clay the fright of his life!
     
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  25. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    He was beaten by a ballbasher in 2009.

    Almost lost to a ballbasher in 2011.

    I'm sure he hopes to avoid ballbashers in 2013.

    There's something about Nadal and odd years at RG...
     
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  26. VAMOSDNA

    VAMOSDNA Banned

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    Can you imagine the look on Djokovic's face if he's drawn to meet Nadal in QF? Doom. I'm certain Nadal will be seeded 5th, because Ferrer has actually looked great on clay apart from his match against Nadal. No way is Ferrer losing enough ranking points. The Roland Garros draw is going to be a lot of fun. A Nadal-Djokovic QF will be a dead end for Djokovic but great for tennis. I think 90% of the world want a Nadal-Federer Roland Garros Final. It never gets old.
     
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  27. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I think you mean it will be doom for Nadal, Bullzilla. He's not going to beat Cvac on any surface any time soon.
     
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  28. VAMOSDNA

    VAMOSDNA Banned

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    Soderling is the only ball-basher I've seen beat Nadal on clay, ever. And Nadal beat Soderling twice in straight sets at Roland Garros after 2009, and he beat Soderling at Wimbledon too. I doubt Nadal will lose any sleep over ball-bashers at Roland Garros. Isner took Nadal to 5 sets because Nadal was playing like crap in 2011 and even lost Rome.
     
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  29. cucio

    cucio Legend

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    That match up on that particular tournament can't get old because it was born old, back in 2005. :cool:
     
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  30. djokovicisananimal

    djokovicisananimal Professional

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    Nadal is a machine at RG, he'll win it yet again no matter what seed he is.
     
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  31. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

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    nadal will likely fall further behind after going back to no5 in a week..likely ferrer picks up points in tourneys and nadal will pull out of Barcelona and rest his knee ,,

    it is clear nadal has given up bothering about his world rank for now, pulling out of Miami was needed and a cautious approach will continue so he isn't destroyed by the time French open arrives.
     
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  32. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    Not last year. Besides Isner isn't having a great or even good year so far.
     
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  33. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    You near like RG2005 andRG2007 and RG2011 when he won?
     
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  34. matchmaker

    matchmaker Hall of Fame

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    Hopefully Nadal will be back at number 4 before RG, because if not, that would put the organizers in a difficult position. They would be much happier if Rafa does not meet the others from the top 4 before the semis.

    I believe that in case Nadal would not get to number 4 befor RG, they should still seed him as number 4. After all, Wimbledon uses a grass court seeding, so it would be quite logical to give some respect to the best claycourter of all time by seeding him slightly above his ranking on clay. It would be better for the tournament too.
     
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  35. djones

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    Can't they just place Nadal in Ferrer's quarter of the draw?
    That way we could still have the real top 4 in the semis.
     
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  36. ctjpm

    ctjpm New User

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    Didn't the powers that be change the rules regarding GS seedings in 2001? Wimbledon adjusts individual players' seedings, the other three majors can but don't bother? 4th seed has lost his last three meetings with the fifth seed - 7-5, 6-0, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 & 6-0, 6-2. Murray's never beaten Nadal on clay and Fed's last win came in 2009. If RG have never adjusted a player's seeding, now's the time to start!

    The following quote makes as much sense as seeding Nadal fifth - from the UK express site - 'Two years ago he (Murray) reached the semi-final in Paris before losing to Nadal, who is now no longer the all-conquering force on clay he once was.'

    MC, Barcelona, Rome, RG, Brazil & Acapulco champion. When was he more conquering? Even in 2008, Ferrero got the win in Rome. Btw, Nadal/clay 05, 06, 07... >>>>> Nadal/clay 2011. MC'11 - eek.
     
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  37. VAMOSDNA

    VAMOSDNA Banned

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    Roland Garros will be a better event if Nadal is seeded 5th? Why? Because there will be a blockbuster QF. I doubt the organizers will be disappointed about that. And even better if the QF is Djokovic vs Nadal. Why? Because it would mean there may be a Federer/Nadal final, which is what the world wants, always.
     
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  38. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Sup, NSK.....can't you disguise yourself with a Fed username next time?
     
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  39. ctjpm

    ctjpm New User

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    Del Potro versus Djokovic or Federer is blockbuster. Federer versus Berdych is a brilliant match up. A defending champion with a 52-1 event record should not be seeded fifth.

    Also means one of them would lose major ranking points and in Rafa's case it could mean a drop out of top 5. All because the people in charge of seeding players were busy 'lunching.'
    Once upon a time Fedal matches were must see TV, they've played far more duds than diamonds during the last few years.
     
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  40. VAMOSDNA

    VAMOSDNA Banned

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    Del Potro and Berdych aren't famous enough to have a blockbuster at the level of Nadal-Djokovic or Nadal-Federer or even Nadal-Murray.

    Nadal will be seeded 5th. Roland Garros doesn't mess with the rankings. Roland Garros always trusts the rankings. I pray to god that Djokovic and Nadal meet in the QFs. Only one man is in danger in that match. Bye bye Djokovic, nice and early.
     
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  41. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest


    I see no real threats to Djokovic for the #1 ranking this year. The only ones with an outside shot are Murray and Nadal. It is already evident Federer is not contending for #1 this year, he will do well to end the year at #4 probably.

    Murray- Even if he gains a bit on Djokovic in the clay season (considering the points they each are defending) which is far from a certainty as Djokovic is the stronger clay courter clearly, Murray has many more points to defend in the grass season and is already certain to lose a big chunk of Olympic points. He probably has to win Wimbledon and have Djokovic lose in the semis (possible) just to gain a bit of points considering the Olympic points loss, anything closer than that and he loses more. His big chance to gain points is post Wimbledon, but even then he is defending a U.S Open title and would have to defend the title there quite possibly just to hold even at that juncture (assuming Djokovic is quite likely the losing finalist in that case).

    Nadal- Probably wont play enough to get to #1 no matter how well he does. He already lost a big potential chunk of points not even playing Australia, and will likely end up skipping some events (like skipping Miami this week, losing another big potential chunk of points) given that he is still protecting his body at this point in his comeback. Add to that his typical drop off in post U.S Open results, sometimes even post Wimbledon, and he is only has a tiny shot to reach #1 this year. He probably would have to do the French-Wimbledon-U.S Open triple to pull it off, and even then it wouldnt be a guarantee (although he would be hands down the real #1 in that case). Even just a Channel slam and strong results in most of the hard court events he plays, wouldnt be enough.


    I dont see Djokovic's ranking coming under threat until 2014 atleast.
     
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  42. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    1. Nadal winning all 3 Clay Court Masters is more likely than Djokovic beating Nadal in 2 Masters finals on clay again like he did in 2011. So why even discuss he latter hypothetical and dismiss the former much more likely one.

    2. Nadal losing the semis or finals of 1 Masters, but winning the other two would still gain points. Ferrer will have a bigger challenge matching or bettering his last years clay season than Nadal, as Nadal has that kind of season every year, while Ferrer rarely does.


    Anyway I think RG will seed Nadal 4th even if he is ranked 5th. We will see, but I will be very surprised if they dont.
     
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  43. VAMOSDNA

    VAMOSDNA Banned

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    Roland Garros won't put Nadal at number 4 if he's ranked number 5. No chance.

    Ferrer is defending:
    Monte Carlo 2nd Round.
    Barcelona Final.
    Rome Semi-final.
    Madrid Quarter-final.

    Nadal is defending:
    Monte Carlo Title.
    Barcelona Title.
    Rome Title.
    Madrid 3rd Round.

    I'm almost 100% sure that Ferrer will be the 4th seed at Roland Garros. And its for the best, because that way we can hopefully get a Nadal-Djokovic Quarter-final. It serves 2 purposes. It guarantees that the unpopular Djokovic goes home early, and maybe a Fedal Final (most of the world wants a Fedal Final).
     
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  44. ctjpm

    ctjpm New User

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    RG'01 - Top seed won the event, which didn't happen again till 2011.
    2008 - Nadal beat Federer in both Monte Carlo & Hamburg which equated to RG seeding him 2nd. The top seed won four games against the 2nd seed - it's illogical.

    Wimbledon between 2000 & 2012 - The top seed won the event six times, not including 2009 when the top seed withdrew. Federer(2) won the event.
     
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  45. VAMOSDNA

    VAMOSDNA Banned

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    It makes no difference where they seed Nadal. How is anyone going to take a set from Nadal? His backhand looks way better than 2012, and in last year's final he only lost a set because they played all that time in the rain which stopped his topspin. That reminds me, if Roland Garros gets a roof then Nadal will truly never drop a set ever again.
     
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  46. Ehh

    Ehh Banned

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    It just means that Nadal will beat Murray, Federer and Djokovic all in a row without losing a set. No biggie - this is the French Open, people. Nadal cannot lose. Even if he were trying to.
     
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  47. Hops

    Hops Rookie

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    not to mention that jiggering the seeds to help Nadal would be completely unfair to Ferrer. Daveed didn't take off 7 months and skip Miami; that was Rafa.
     
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  48. ctjpm

    ctjpm New User

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    Who benefitted more from Nadal's absence than any other player with the possible exception of Murray.

    Not adjusting Nadal's seed would be unfair to Rafa. Seeded behind a player who's never won a clay tourney and has no wins over Rafa on the surface. Ferrer's won twelve games total against Nadal in the last seven sets they've played on clay. Both players more likely to win RG?

    If Federer decided to skip the 2013 clay season and in doing so dropped his 2000+ points from 2012 and was overtaken by both Spaniards, there would be an outcry if Wimbledon decided to seed the seven time & defending champion fifth. Right for Paris, wrong for London?
     
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  49. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I have predicted all along the RG committee would seed Nadal over Ferrer if Ferrer is still #4 at the time of RG. I am definitely sticking with that. Embarassments like today will only make it more apparent that is the thing to do, along with the 3 or 4 games per match Ferrer will continue to get in any possible clay meetings with Nadal this year probably.

    As for what they are defending, how does that make things obvious in Ferrers favor. Yes Nadal is definitely alot more, but Nadal is also 5 times the clay courter Ferrer is so is far likely to have MUCH better results. He could easily even expand their gap of last years clay results further, thus giving him the chance to catch him in the rankings. It will be alot harder for Ferrer to defend last years clay results than Nadal, and in fact it will be surprising if Ferrer can defend all his clay points of last year, and if Nadal does not (and quite possibly improves, especialy his Madrid result). Nadal has that kind of year on clay every year, and with Djokovic 2011 probably a one off there is still nobody to seriously challenge him on clay at all, while there are a good dozen guys who can beat Ferrer on clay.

    In the case omehow Nadal is seeded #5 at RG though I predict he would end up drawing Ferrer, Federer, or Murray in the quarters, win the match in about 90 minutes and move onto the next round where he would proceed to beat 1 of the remaining 2 again in 90 minutes, and move onto the final. Most likely Djokovic would be in the other half. That is the final the powers that be would want to see, so they will probably make sure they are in opposite halves.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 31, 2013
    #49
  50. NN-1

    NN-1 New User

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    All of this arguing is pointless. Nadal will lose by the semis. Federer 50/50 on ending his QF streak.
     
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