If Nadal wins RG and Wimbledon, is Fed record threatened?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by IgnatusP, Mar 26, 2013.

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If Nadal wins the next 2 slams, will Federer's slam record be in danger?

  1. Yes, Nadal could win at least 4 slams after that

    56.8%
  2. No way, Nadal would fall short of his goal

    43.2%
  1. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Simple question. If Nadal accomplishes this feat (which won't be easy) he will be only 4 slams away from Fed's 17, and he will have just become 27 years old.

    The big unknowns are his health (whether the period he took off really helped heal his knees) and external threats (the main one in my view being Djokovic).

    The question doesn't have to do with how likely Nadal is to achieve these goals, but, assuming he does it, what would things look like then.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2013
    #1
  2. Fyrepower

    Fyrepower New User

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    I believe that Rafa has the ability to beat Fed's record, but only with a monumental amount of work and if his knee stays healthy.
     
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  3. ark_28

    ark_28 Hall of Fame

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    It won't be easy but if he wins the French and Wimby combo then I would back him to at last equal Roger I see him winning 2/3 more French Opens after this year and 1/2 more Wimbledons! US Open and AO will be tough but it's not impossible he sneaks one more hard court slam
     
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  4. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    As long as Nadal is healthy, Fed's record will always be up for the taking. I'm sure deep down, Nadal has his eyes on that record. At least his fans are........:):twisted:
     
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  5. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Depends... Fed could still win the following USO (possible) or AO (highly unlikely) and reset the differential to 5 or 6 slams..... A 4 slam difference is still tough to make up, but obviously doable for a player of Nadal's calibre
     
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  6. Semi-Pro

    Semi-Pro Hall of Fame

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    I don't really see the Nadal winning any hard court slams in the near future therefore it'll be incredibly difficult for him to threaten Feds record
     
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  7. Cuqui

    Cuqui New User

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    If my grandmother had wheels would she be a Ferrari?
     
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  8. ark_28

    ark_28 Hall of Fame

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    Problem with that analogy is it only goes with things that can't happen not things that may happen 8)
     
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  9. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    Well, he just won IW which is a HC. Tho' the courts are different, that "incredibly difficult" feat are still attainable.Obviously the top 3 and the rest will have a say on that, but it still is possible
     
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  10. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    If she could VROOOOM and you nailed the stallion logo on her forehead, it would probably be close enough. I'm not condoning such activities, though. It might get you in trouble with Adult Protective Services.
     
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  11. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    It's not just Nadal's knees that must stay healthy. His body, his focus, his mind and his determination must be absolutely spot on for the next 4-5 years.
    He must be able to play at his prime level past his 30s which historically has never been done in the history of this sport.
    The question is, how many years does he have where his body can still handle the ferocious grinding 4-5 hour battles against younger players?
    Every year, things get tougher and tougher both physically and mentally for players who get up in age.
    Just about everything must go right for Nadal for many more years in order for him to threaten such a record.
     
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  12. DropShotArtist

    DropShotArtist Banned

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    Nadal might win FO this year if he is lucky.
     
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  13. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Nadal had his eyes on that record after 2010 after winning the USO. Then came the rise of Djokovic! :shock:
    Who knows who may rise next and make things that much more difficult for Fedal.
     
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  14. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Yes, it would be difficult. But imagine it's August and Nadal has just won 2 slams convincingly. Wouldn't you start wondering if he could actually run the course? I imagine Federer would start feeling uncomfortable if that were to happen.
     
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  15. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Well the earliest opportunity Nadal would have to equalize would be at wimbledon 2014 if he won all slams between now and then. He would probably be incapable of winning any more after 2017 and has stated anyway that Rio 2016 may be his last Olympics and thus by extension within a few years of the end of his career.... The question is is it possible for him to win 6 slams at least between now and 2017
     
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  16. rafazx10

    rafazx10 Rookie

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    As of now he is 6 slams away.
    6 slams? That is just a year and a half right?

    Thing is 6 slams is more than half what he has right now.

    And IMO he is done with more than 2/3 of his career, specially because of the type of game he plays.

    It is technically possible, but if i had to bet i would say it wont happen.
     
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  17. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    This is a reasonable opinion. I can't say I would personally bet against him at this point though. He's way too dangerous and focused if he remains healthy. When he sees the goal drawing closer he won't stop.
     
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  18. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    We all wondered if Federer could win 25 Slams before Nadal figured out grass and hards. We all wondered if Nadal was going to clean house again after his monumental 2010 and then Djokovic 2.0 came out of nowhere!
    There's so much tennis to be played, it's not even worth discussing.
    And who is to say that Nadal's own Slam record is safe? Djokovic is racking them up lately and he's not even close to stopping by the looks of it. PLUS he's younger than Nadal and far less injury prone.
     
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  19. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

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    Of course yes.

    But it doesn't matter whether it will be Nadal or not.
    Under the current homogeneous tour surface conditions(post 2003),
    next great player will reach 20+ slams, IMHO.
    I would say within a decade or two maybe?

    Then whole new discussions will arise on who the real open era GOAT is.

    I think Federer knows this and he will try his best add more slams.
     
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  20. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Yes, I actually agree with you. I wasn't asking if it's certain Nadal would surpass the record, or even if it is likely. I was just asking whether, if he wins the next 2, he will be a danger to Fed's record in the sense that Fed might lose sleep at night.

    Nadal's record is not safe either, I agree with that. But if Nadal takes the next 2, then he would be 7 away from Djokovic, and Djokovic's chances would have become much slimmer.
     
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  21. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Nadal never stopped at any point. He always had the goal of being the best. To even win a Slam is a tremendous achievement. The thing is, he cannot stop fate. He cannot stop the inevitable. At some point, it won't be his decision when his game declines and when things are out of reach. He will be an old man in this game while younger players are looking to knock him off.
    The Nadal you see today won't be around forever. So looking so far ahead is pointless. The competition is getting stronger and stronger.
     
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  22. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

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    I would say Nadal would be a contender for French Open even at the age of
    40 with 1.5 legs. :)

    Of course, assuming he wants.
     
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  23. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Ok OP, given that Nadal wins the next two slams then theres a high probability that the record will be tied/surpassed, probably in late 2015. If however, Nadal wins neither, it means that Djokovic and Murray are flushing Fedal out (or maybe fed has managed to bag number 18) and the task becomes infinitely harder for him. If Nadal goes slamless this year he shouldnt reach the record......
     
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  24. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    I don't know, man. Now we are entering Pancho Gonzalez territory.
     
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  25. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Even if Nadal wins RG and Wimbledon this year, what if Djokovic wins the USO and then the AO? Then the talk naturally is back on regarding his chances of exceeding Nadal's Slam count. There's just no possible way of knowing anything. What if somebody like Kevin Anderson catches fire and takes out Nadal at Wimbledon in the 3rd round? What if Del Potro takes out Djokovic at the USO? What if Murray takes out Nadal at the AO in 2014? What if Nadal needs another 4 months off from the game to recover an ailing knee injury?
    I can't look so far ahead.:)
    The tennis must be played. Nobody is a winner of anything yet.
     
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  26. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    I pretty much agree. I wouldn't say he would have a high probability of beating the record, but I'd say he'd have a reasonable chance.
     
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  27. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Yes, yes... yes. But 99% of the threads here are born out of speculation / dreams. It's a plausible question which I'm asking. Too many unknowns for us to know how things will play out, but the poll is speculative in nature.
     
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  28. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    How cool is it that we have 3 living legends currently playing in the same era?
     
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  29. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

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    It's possible but highly unlikely.

    If he can win 3 more RG, He'll still need 3 more majors from WIM, AO and USO to equal it. Realistically WIM is his best chance but I don't see him winning more than 1 more Wimbledon.

    If he does the channel slam again this year, that would be an incredible achievement, he'd tie Borg with 3 channel slams and his major count will be 13.

    Is it plausible that he can win another 4 majors after that? Yeah, from 2014-2016 he'll still be in his 20's until 2016 RG where he'll turn 30 most likely before or just after the semi's. He'd have to win every RG from that time span though and still need one of WIM, AO and USO to equal it. Plausible, yes, likely, no. even if he does get the channel slam this year.
     
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  30. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    It's simply amazing, man. What is incredible is how the dynamics have played out. Raise of Federer, then raise of Nadal, then raise of Djokovic, including well defined periods of domination by each one, and enough drama to shake a stick at.
     
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  31. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Nadal's won 2 Slams between 2011 and now. Djokovic has won 5 Slams between 2011 and now. Something to think about.
     
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  32. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Well if someone wins two slams in a row then naturally they have some sort of momentum. That momentum could propel nadal to a USO win.
     
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  33. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    I know, it is a really tall order, isn't it? Who is a threat to Nadal in RG in the foreseeable future, besides Djokovic? Do you see somebody like DelPo or Gulbis stepping up, or an as-of-yet dark horse claycourter showing up?
     
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  34. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Yeah, I wonder who will rise next? Murray has been in the past 3 Slam finals, winning one of them.
    I think if Murray figures out Nadal at Wimbledon this year, things are going to get very interesting. He was crushing Nadal at Wimbledon 2011 until he hit a routine shot out that completely caused him to mentally collapse in that 2nd set. Will be interesting to see how things play out this year.
     
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  35. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    But both of them have won 1 out of the last 4 slams. The momentum seems to have subsided for Djokovic.
     
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  36. Readers

    Readers Semi-Pro

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    Stupid poll, the title and the poll doesn't even match each other.

    The title asks if Federer's record will be threatened, that's a no, as 4 more slam is not easy, but the poll ask people to make prediction of Nadal's future which is a completely different question.
     
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  37. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Definitely will. If Nadal can't take Wimbledon, I'd like Murray to be the champion. That would make the Brits probably go all batshit.
     
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  38. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Somebody always steps up. I personally didn't see Tsonga almost wiping out Djokovic at FO last year. Granted Tsonga didn't convert on those 4-5 match points but I was shocked that he played that well on his worst surface against arguably the second best clay court player in the sport.
     
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  39. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    I think we have yet to see Nadal encounter his true kryptonite, a tall, supremely fit, mentally strong aggressive player who likes topspin forehands as they fall comfortably in his strike zone and who doesnt choke when he gets in to a winning position. Its the law of nature, nadal is the anti federer, now as nadal ages we will see the anti nadal emerge :p
     
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  40. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    I think you need to read it all again, then laugh at your mistake.

    Or rationalize what you are saying, because it makes no sense. Federer's record being in danger means Nadal needs to win 4 slams after the hypothetical scenario provided.
     
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  41. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    True but Djokovic is also coming off the AO win. He is the last man to win a Slam out of everybody. The momentum clearly is his. If he wins Miami, his confidence is boosted again and he goes into clay season with confidence restored unless he has another grandfather who unfortunatly dies.:neutral:
     
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  42. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Tsonga is very hot and cold, not consistent at all. A temperamental player like Verdasco, but with a better attitude.
     
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  43. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Del Potro could be that guy but he needs to be absolutely fresh. He needs to meet Nadal in a QF and be fully confident. It would also help if the clay is a little damp. He can hit through the clay.
     
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  44. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    True. We just wonder who will be hot when they face Nadal.
    Wawrinka was hot against Djokovic at AO. We may get surprises this year.
     
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  45. borg number one

    borg number one Legend

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    Yes, I think it is. He'd have to keep going for a few more years, but I think that Nadal could eventually match or surpass Federer's major count even if he won say 1 of the next three.
     
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  46. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

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    The thing is, Novak is only 1 year younger than Nadal. Sure Rafa has more mileage, but at the same time he's had 7 months off which imo has refreshed him mentally and allowed him to recover from that extra mileage.

    So far Novak has played 610 matches. Nadal, 723. So it's not like Novak will be vastly fitter and faster (provided Nadal doesn't cop another long knee injury setback). Murray I don't think has much of a chance at RG, I think Del Potro is the next threat behind Novak.

    Gulbis, forget about it.

    This year may be Novak's best chance, but if he doesn't take it this year, I think there will be some mental scarring if he has to face Rafa at RG again in the future. He has now lost to Nadal at RG 4 times and in those losses has only taken 1 set and that was when the court got soaked and nullified Nadal's topspin.
     
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  47. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    I think the anti Nadal will beat him regularly from the off. Delpo now has the mental baggage of losing to Nadal more times than having beaten him. Then again delpo is younger by a few years so he may get his head screwed on yet :)
     
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  48. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Thank you, borg number one. I respect you and zagor's opinion most in this forum.

    Nadal is an unknown at this point (or rather his physical condition is). I hypothesize that he took the 7 months off to regenerate some of the damage he had sustained in his joints, and that he might have increased his useful life at the top of the game. If that's true, I agree that he has a good chance.

    Does Borg ever give interviews these days? I'm wondering what his opinion about this would be.
     
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  49. IgnatusP

    IgnatusP Banned

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    Yes, Novak's odometer is not far from Nadal's at this point. But he has suffered none of the physical problems Nadal has had to deal with.

    The 7 months are perplexing. I think it was part of a strategy for maximum recovery of his potential. He might have extended his career a couple years or more (just a hypothesis).
     
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  50. DropShotArtist

    DropShotArtist Banned

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    Frankly, I think Djoker will knock off Nadal in one of the clay tourneys leading up to the FO. This will substantially reduce Nadal's confidence.
     
    #50

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