Interesting stat - Fed is 0-9 vs Nole after losing 1st set

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by kragster, Nov 13, 2012.

  1. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    Fed has never come back after losing the 1st set to Nole in 9 attempts.

    Comparatively, he has comeback twice vs Rafa (in 15 attempts) after losing the 1st set and twice vs Murray (in 8 attempts). Of course the sample size is not large enough to make a conclusive comment but is there an underlying reason here we can speculate about as to why Fed has been less successful in making a comeback vs Nole?
     
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  2. McEnroeisanartist

    McEnroeisanartist Hall of Fame

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    Novak is a tremendous front runner.
     
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  3. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Just shows that Federer isn't much of a fighter.
     
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  4. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

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    Very true. I think he sucks at losing the 1st set, ends up winning mostly.
     
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  5. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Federer loses momentum after losing the first set, and promptly loses.
     
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  6. Djokodal Fan

    Djokodal Fan Professional

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    does not have mental toughness. So much for being a GOAT....hmmmm
     
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  7. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    H2H notes (that I posted on another board):


    1. Overall H2H: 16-13, Federer

    2. Career H2H in finals: 4-4

    Djokovic: 4 (2012 World Tour Finals, 2011 Dubai, 2009 Basel, 2007 Canada)
    Federer: 4 (2012 Cincinnati, 2010 Basel, 2009 Cincinnati, 2007 U.S. Open)

    3. After losing the 1st set: 0-9 for Federer, 4-20 for Djokovic
    Federer has never come back after losing the 1st set against Djokovic (which makes the 1st set all the more important for Federer)
    Djokovic has come back 4 times in his career against Federer, most famously in his 2010 and 2011 U.S. Open semi-finals (saving 2 match points in both matches)
     
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  8. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    I will bump the Day Federer comes back from a 1st deficet against Novak.
     
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  9. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

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    Fed was always deadly while hes enjoying a comfortable lead. He never was comfortable with fighters that kept throwing the 1-2 Punch combo vs him and never just roll over and die.

    Before it was Nadal.. Now its Nole.

    In that respect, yea Fed isn't much of a fighter or a guy who relishes the pressure
     
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  10. dr325i

    dr325i Legend

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    If they get a chance to meet again ;)
     
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  11. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    True, Murray will take care of Novak for Roger ;)
     
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  12. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    What a great thread, I think the main reason is that Fed is so mentally weak and such an overrated lucky player that thrived in a weak era and would have never won anything of note in this strong era and bla bla bla.. Rafa warrior bla bla bla Sampras bla bla bla...

    Oh God, I could have honestly predicted almost word for word what were you going to say, annoying Petros fanatic that you are.

    Yes, now it's Nole, yet Fed still beat Nole at Wimbledon this year and still made it far enough to face him at WTF (of course he had to qualify first at the age of 31), do you see where I'm going with this?
     
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  13. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Federer is the GOAT.
     
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  14. Dean

    Dean Rookie

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    After losing the first set the top 4's records are as follows:

    Djokoivic - 64-103 38.3%
    Federer - 97-142 40.6%
    Murray - 59-98 37.6%
    Nadal - 64-94 40.5%
     
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  15. DragonBlaze

    DragonBlaze Hall of Fame

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    LOL!!! Nice find!! Surprised that Fed is above Nadal though (although negligible difference really).
     
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  16. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Nole is a great front runner and when confident starts to take huge rips at the ball when infront. His record in general after winning the 1st set is great.
     
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  17. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    LOL! And the rest of the 3 still have to reach the twilight stage of their career when any sort of during the match comebacks will presumably become harder.

    But you see, it's unfair to simply compare stats because Rafa played in a completely different era than Fed and is injured/tired all the time (less injured/tired when he wins, more when he loses naturally), it's only through his sheer mental will and his never-say-die attitude that he even managed to get to 40.5%.
     
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  18. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Nope, not even once have I claimed that, ever.

    Nice try, though.
     
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  19. kOaMaster

    kOaMaster Hall of Fame

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    http://www.atpworldtour.com/Reliability-Zone/Reliability-After-Winning-First-Set-Career-List.aspx

    1. Bjorn Borg .000 - 0-0 .954 - 524-25
    2. Novak Djokovic .984 - 63-1 .953 - 405-20
    3. Rafael Nadal .952 - 39-2 .949 - 519-28
    4. Jimmy Connors .000 - 0-0 .946 - 1077-62
    5. John McEnroe .000 - 0-0 .943 - 773-47
    6. Ivan Lendl .000 - 0-0 .934 - 932-66
    7. Roger Federer .967 - 59-2 .933 - 781-56
    8. Andy Murray .880 - 44-6 .928 - 320-25
    9. Eddie Dibbs .000 - 0-0 .925 - 494-40
    10. Juan Martin Del Potro .937 - 59-3 .924 - 218-18


    Djokovic is endeed a very good front runner. Although one mustn't be decieved by the numbers: borg retired early, novak & rafa are in the middle of their career as well, connors & lendl played many "weak draw"-tournaments and didn't compete with the top10 in over 75% of the tournaments per year.

    overall it seems to be that this stat proves at least it is not a weak era, but a very strong top4.

    Plus: honestly, never heard of Dibbs before.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2012
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  20. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

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    Interestingly, I believe Federer has lost 4 matches to Murray after winning the first set, and I think 2 against Djokovic, but as kOaMaster points out, I'll be interested to see how this stat changes as these guys age.
     
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  21. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    Actually if you think about it, against the field, Fed is a far superior player than Rafa/Djoker/Murray. So while Fed might lose close matches to the top 3, he is capable of turning around stuff on almost everyone else in the field. The other guys are more susceptible to straight set beat-downs in certain conditions (vs certain opponents).

    I think the perspective to use here is to compare overall win % vs an opponent with win % vs opponent after losing 1st set. Just using the latter does not tell you anything For e.g. if you looked at Ferrer vs Federer and saw 0 comebacks from Ferrer, it would not make sense to draw a conclusion given the fact that overall Ferrer has 0 wins vs Fed. However given that all the top players have a number of wins vs each other, you could compare their overall performance to performance after losing the 1st set.

    Fed's overall win % vs Nadal is 36% (10 wins/28 matches) . His win % vs Nadal after losing the 1st set is 13% ( 2/15). So that's ~ 3:1 ratio (36% divided by 13%)

    Nadal's overall win % vs Fed is 64%( 18/28 matches). His win % vs Fed after losing the 1st set is 38%. So that's ~ 2:1 ratio

    Conclusion: On a relative basis winning the 1st set is more important for Fed than it is for Nadal.


    If I compare Nadal with Djokovic

    Nadal's win % vs Djoker is 58% ( 19/33). His win% after losing the 1st set is 17% (2/12). That's a 3.5:1 ratio

    Djoker's win % vs Nadal is 42% (14/33). His win % after losing the 1st set is 16% (3/19). That's ~ 2.5:1 ratio.

    Conclusion: On a relative basis winning the 1st set is more important for Nadal than it is for Djoker


    Again I am certain these stats will move around as players age and the sample size is somewhat small. Just thought it was interesting to speculate.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2012
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  22. zam88

    zam88 Professional

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    sounds like federer should just retire after losing the first set and save a ton of energy then.
     
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  23. namelessone

    namelessone Legend

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    Another "Fed is mentally weak" thread.

    Hilarious.

    I can't remember any other top player coming back from 2 sets down so many times in slams before but yeah, he is mentally weak.

    TROLLOLOL.
     
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  24. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Lol he should just enjoy the little time he has left when he can still be competitive with the younger stars.
     
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  25. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    You're putting words into my mouth. Never said Fed was mentally weak, in fact quite the opposite - if you look at this same stat (winning % after losing 1st set) vs the field (someone else posted it in this thread), it showed that Fed has actually done better than the other guys. This thread is specifically about how Fed has fared against Djokovic after losing the 1st set, a point that even the commentators brought up during the match. In general one would have expected Fed to have more comebacks vs Djokovic (who can be mentally up and down) vs Nadal so I just thought it was worth mentioning.

    However I am glad to see a Nadal fan defending Fed, its a rarity to see reasonable folks on this forum.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2012
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  26. wangs78

    wangs78 Hall of Fame

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    You could say that but I think a lot of this has to do with their style of play. Fed has an attacking mindset, not a defender's mindset. Hence when he is down in a match, he is uncomfortable, because when you are down you are effectively forced to take on a defensive mindset (i.e., how to come back). Now, when Roger is down 2 sets to love against someone who he doesn't expect to come back against (for example, against Nadal in the '08 Wimby final) he basically doesn't give a crap anymore and plays freely again with his attacking style, and in the case of the '08 Wimby final, he came all the way back to force a 5th set tiebreak. In short, Roger plays best when he's ahead, can play freely and can calmly take the risky shots. Playing conservatively (defense) is very bad for his game.

    Most of the players acknowledge this as well, that Roger is a great frontrunner.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2012
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