Is It In Djok's Hands Who Advances With Him From Group A?

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by stringertom, Nov 8, 2012.

  1. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2010
    Messages:
    14,221
    Location:
    In a sureshsian vortex
    I haven't studied all the permutations but it looks like Novak could gently boost Berd to the semis with a straight-set loss IF Andy has any trouble with Jo. Will this be in the back of his mind after all his recent long struggles vs Murray. I know it's a gamble because they could all wind up 2-1 and the tiebreakers will then determine the odd one out.

    Please, your thoughts bcoz I'm scratching my head over this one.
     
    #1
  2. ark_28

    ark_28 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2010
    Messages:
    4,118
    Location:
    England/USA
    If Novak loses in straights the problem is he needs Tsonga to win a set! Murray wins in straights and Novak is out! Given Tsongas poor form and Murrays great record against the Frenchman I am not sure that Novak can take such a risk!
     
    #2
  3. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,634
    Let's assume Murray beats Tsonga in 2 (cause that's what's probably gonna happen) and

    a) Berdych beats Djokovic in 2

    In this scenario you have:
    1. Murray 2-1 5-3
    2. Berdych 2-1 5-3
    3. Djokovic 2-1 4-3
    4. Tsonga 0-3 1-6

    Murray qualifies 1st, Berdych 2nd, Djokovic gets knocked out.

    b) Berdych beats Djokovic in 3
    Murray, Berdych and Djokovic all finish with 2 matches won and a 5-3 ratio in sets. The % of games won comes in play.

    I don't think Djokovic should take any chances, anything but a win against Berdych and he could finish 3rd in his group. The more he shouldn't take any risks as he's playing in the afternoon session so he doesn't know how the Murray-Tsonga match pans out.



    All this talk won't last long, though. Watch Djokovic beat Berdych 3 and 3 and then watch Murray beat Tsonga 2 and 3.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
    #3
  4. Duncan Bell

    Duncan Bell Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2012
    Messages:
    2,229
    Location:
    Nottingham
    Not a chance, can't see Tsonga getting a set, so would be too much of a risk
     
    #4
  5. JayChu

    JayChu Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2009
    Messages:
    4,380
    Location:
    Toronto, ON
    If you check the ATP World Tour site, they have actuallly done all of the scenarios for each person to advance to the semi-finals.

    Scroll down the page a bit, click on Group Standings and then click on something that says Semi-Finals qualification scenarios (sorry, I'm on my phone so I don't have the exact link)
     
    #5
  6. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    15,235
    USO final was an aberration. Novak is not scared of Murray.He may probably like to avoid Fed at WTF
     
    #6
  7. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    13,793
    Location:
    Manchester, UK.
    Was his narrow 5 set win over Murray at the AO an aberration too or the 5 match points he managed to dodge from him in Shanghai not to mention his losses to him at Dubai and the Olympics as well as the USO this year? He is now 4-3 v Murray this year and 2-2 v Federer. Both are as close a match-up for him as you can get!

    And how the heck can he avoid Fed at the WTF if he hopes to win it??
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
    #7
  8. CDNguy87

    CDNguy87 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    1,633
    If Berdych beats Djoker in 3, Berdych's sets record would actually be 5-4, so he would be eliminated by a Murray straight sets win. Djoker would get 1st in that scenario based on H2H over Murray.

    Also, even if Murray needed 3 sets to beat Tsonga, Berdych would still be eliminated if he beat Novak in 3. Djoker would have the best sets record at 5-3, while Murray and Berdych would be tied at 5-4, but Murray would get 2nd on H2H.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
    #8
  9. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    15,235
    Fed has got what he wanted, so i think he will not give his best or shank or tank his semis.

    I see a Djoko Murray final,let us see who is right on that day.
     
    #9
  10. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    15,235
    It is the W that counts, not close matches, espescially with Novak , who is defintion of clutch. Is Dubai a 250 or 500 ?
     
    #10
  11. Hawkeye7

    Hawkeye7 Professional

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    1,003
    Location:
    Cologne
    Dubai is a 500 event. Well, the differences are still minimal. 4-3 is not exactly huge.

    The only thing Djokovic could do to make things harder for Murray without risking going out himself, is let Berdych win in 3. But it would also mean risking that he only qualifies second. And I'm sure he likes the prospect of playing Ferrer/DelPo in the semis better than playing Federer. That way though Murray would have to win his match in order to qualify. If Djokovic wins, all Murray has to do is win a set.

    The thing is, unless Djokovic wins in 2, Tsonga will be playing a dead rubber (from his perspective) and I'm not sure how motivated that would make him.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2012
    #11
  12. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2010
    Messages:
    14,221
    Location:
    In a sureshsian vortex
    So Berd is doomed if he doesn't straight-set Djok and Murray wins. Sounds like Tomas will be pedal-to-the-metal. Could result in a UE-fest if he's not on.
     
    #12
  13. CDNguy87

    CDNguy87 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    1,633
    This is a very important point. Tsonga's only hope for qualifying is if Djoker wins in straights and he beats Murray in straghts. I think Djoker's best advised to just try to finish off Berdych and ensure Tsonga has a live rubber. Since he'll need help from Tsonga anyway to knock out Murray, he might as well ensure he'll be motivated. There's also a clear benefit to clinching 1st in getting the (probably) easier Semi

    But I think in a way Novak finishing 1st and Murray 2nd might be good for Djokovic. This ensures that Fed would probably need to beat Murray and Djokovic back-to-back in the Semi and Final, while Djoker would probably get Ferrer in a much easier Semi. Not only would it be more challenging for Fed to beat Murray in the Semi, but it would also be a much more gruelling match than if Fed were to play big hitters Berdych or Tsonga. Fed/Murray playing a tough Semi the day before the Final is pretty much the dream scenario for Novak...I think he'd be extremely confident playing in the Final against whoever came out on top of that.
     
    #13
  14. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    31,126
    Location:
    New York
    Yes it's in his hands. I wouldn't trust Tsonga to win 1 set off Murray. Novak has to win a set vs Berd, which shouldn't be a huge problem imo. He doesn't need to win the match but it would be better for him to finish first of his group to avoid Fed in the semi.
     
    #14
  15. JayChu

    JayChu Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2009
    Messages:
    4,380
    Location:
    Toronto, ON
    Technically, Fed could tank his match against Del Potro to ensure that he faces Novak in the semis should Nole finish first in his group.

    However, Federer is not the type of person that will tank a match just for the hell of it.
     
    #15
  16. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    31,126
    Location:
    New York
    I think Fed is exactly the type of person to make calculations like this especially since it is also to his advantage to save his energy with (probably) Djoko and Murray waiting for him back to back without a day off. It will depend a lot on which Delpo shows up but I'm pretty sure Fed won't want to get dragged into a long drawn out battle a la Olympics, since that would pretty much destroy his chances for the rest of the tournament.
     
    #16
  17. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,990
    Fed won't tank against Del Potro, he is too proud and will want to avenge the Basel result.
     
    #17
  18. NadalDramaQueen

    NadalDramaQueen Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2012
    Messages:
    1,561
    Berdych looking to cause trouble. :cool:
     
    #18
  19. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    9,473
    Location:
    NON-Pigeon City
    LOL Novaks already through. 8)
     
    #19
  20. NadalDramaQueen

    NadalDramaQueen Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2012
    Messages:
    1,561
    Berdych choke coming up?
     
    #20
  21. jaggy

    jaggy G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2006
    Messages:
    12,744
    Location:
    Carrboro, NC
    Good prediction, 6-6
     
    #21
  22. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,634
    Berdych screws up in the breaker, 6-6.

    Just get on with it.
     
    #22
  23. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    9,473
    Location:
    NON-Pigeon City
    This will be a nightmare for the Murrayturds if Berdych gets this set and Tsonga shows up tonight.
     
    #23
  24. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,634
    Djokovic beats Berdych 6-2 7-6.
     
    #24
  25. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    31,126
    Location:
    New York

    The one that gets screwed up is Tsonga. He's officially out if Berd wins a set here.
    ETA: lol typical insane comeback from Djoko to win in straights. Djoko is now qualified #1 of his group. I never get tired of him clapping for his opponents' good points. Very classy.
     
    #25
  26. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    9,473
    Location:
    NON-Pigeon City
    Nevermind. :mrgreen:
     
    #26
  27. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2008
    Messages:
    13,120
    What does Murray have to do tonight? Will winning a set be enough? Does Tsonga need a straight set win to advance? Can Berdych still go through now?
     
    #27
  28. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,634
    So Djokovic finished the group 1st. For 2nd place - all Murray has to do is to win a set, if Tsonga straight sets him, though, Jo is through.

    In the other group, Fed needs to win a set against Del Potro to top the group, if he loses in straights Del Potro is through 1st and Fed 2nd.
     
    #28
  29. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,634
    Group A

    After 2 rounds of round-robin matches:

    1) Regardless of score, if Andy Murray defeats Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, then Novak Djokovic wins the group and Andy Murray qualifies 2nd.

    2) If Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeats Andy Murray in 2 sets, then Novak Djokovic wins the group and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga qualifies 2nd.

    3) If Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeats Andy Murray in 3 sets, then Novak Djokovic wins the group and Andy Murray qualifies 2nd.
     
    #29
  30. Bloodshed

    Bloodshed Professional

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    1,158
    Location:
    Orléans, Canada
    Basically all Murray has to do is win a set vs Tsonga and he's through second?

    Nevermind. Thanks tennis_pro

    I will seriously laugh if Tsonga wins in 2 sets.
     
    #30
  31. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    31,126
    Location:
    New York
    I don't see ANY way Tsonga could beat Murray in straights. Which means Murray is unofficially but pretty certainly qualified. Fed now has the luxury to pick which player he wants to face in the semi. Why does Fed always have all the advantages? Draw, schedule, options, etc? Forget it, rhetorical question...
     
    #31
  32. jaggy

    jaggy G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2006
    Messages:
    12,744
    Location:
    Carrboro, NC
    I think Murray can lose to many players in straights, Fed, joker, nad, Young and yes even Tsonga. I dont expect it but when Murray stinks he is really bad. WTA bad.
     
    #32
  33. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    31,126
    Location:
    New York

    Sorry but Murray has won his last 5 encounters vs Tsonga and Tsonga is currently not at his best. With what's at stake, it is simply unthinkable Murray wouldn't win at least 1 set.

    On another note, Djoko is increasing his ranking points over Fed nicely this week.
     
    #33
  34. GoodVibrations

    GoodVibrations Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    160
    Djoko paved the way for Tsonga to go all-out from the beginning tonight vs. Murray. I want to see Tsonga putting it all on the line and wanting that second SF spot. Even if he loses (and I'm pretty sure he will), it would be fun to see a motivated and fiery Tsonga giving it all he's got.
     
    #34
  35. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    14,990
    Hey veroniquem, here is a short clip of Fed himself saying he wants to beat Del Potro this time after the Basel loss, just in case you don't believe me. I know you don't like to look at or listen to Fed much but it is only a short clip! :)

    http://www.tennistv.com/video/clip/2097122
     
    #35
  36. MaiDee

    MaiDee Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2009
    Messages:
    739
    Location:
    Sabai Land
    Blue clay, closed roof without rain ....etc.?
     
    #36
  37. ditli04

    ditli04 Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    237
    I really hope that Tsonga wins the first set to get some excitment going!
     
    #37

Share This Page