Is it possible to get bumped 2 levels in 1 year?

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by MadisonTennis, Sep 15, 2013.

  1. MadisonTennis

    MadisonTennis New User

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    I tried to do a search but I guess I was not entering the correct information so thought I would see if someone could help me with this question.

    I am currently rated 4.0 but was 4.5 in the past. In 2012, I played 4.0 and 4.5 but kept my 4.0 rating. I was looking at the leaguestats website and it had me calculated at 3.81 after the 2012 season. This year, I played just 4.0singles and did not lose a set in 7 matches. I think I lost 3 games in 1 set but that was the closest one. I figured my 4.0 rating is probably in danger but I was just looking at the projections on that website and it is calculating me as finishing at 4.61. There are 10 players in my area projected to be bumped to 5.0 and I was projected as #5 of the 10. One opponent that I won 2&0 is projected to be bumped to 4.5. The other wins were against all mid to high level 4.0s based on the projections.

    I guess my 2 questions would be how accurate is that website and is it possible to get bumped 2 levels if I only played 4.0? Any help or input would be appreciated.
     
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  2. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    1. It is possible to get double bumped in a single year.
    2. That site is not accurate if you are trying to figure out who is getting bumped.

    I know one person who was double bumped from 3.5 to 4.5. He played 3.5 and 4.0 during the year, and was basically undefeated through nationals at 3.5. I'd guess you're getting bumped to 4.5 unless you also played and won at 4.5 this year. 5.0 is a possibility, but I think it's remote.

    Does your section have early start ratings posted? They are a much better predictor of who will get bumped and where than TLS (although that is not set in stone either).
     
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  3. MadisonTennis

    MadisonTennis New User

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    No, we do not have early ratings in Southern. I figured 4.5 was right. Anything higher and here comes the "appeal" button. I should have been more specific b/c I got double bumped one time but that year I had played up a level and not my rating level. Think I won about 90% of my matches that year at the higher level so that probably made sense. It would have been crazy to get double bumped this year playing only my rating level. Thanks for your input and glad 4.5 sounds correct.
     
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  4. anubis

    anubis Hall of Fame

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    Do you have any official match history in USTA's tennis link website vs 5.0s? that's the only way i can see you getting double bumped. If all you've played are 4.0s and 4.5s, then regardless of your match history, you'll get bumped to 4.5.

    If you played up to 5.0 and smoked the competition, then I could see getting double bumped. That would either playing up in 5.0 leagues, or playing open level matches vs. 5.0 players. But right now,barring 5.0 play time, the USTA algorithm isn't taking into consideration that level of competition. If all you've played is 4.0 and 4.5, then it's just going to take that into consideration.

    Out of curiosity, how many 5.0 matches have you played outside of USTA? If you have, how did you fare in them? The reason I ask is, if you're truly a 5.0, then you should be double bageling every single 4.0 you play, and bread sticking every single 4.5 you've played. If that is the case, then 5.0s will be right up your alley.

    Lastly: it doesn't really matter if all they bump you up to is 4.5: you can still play up to 5.0 with your 4.5 rating. It's not stopping you. And, if you do that and do very well, you'll be bumped up to 5.0 after a year anyway.
     
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  5. MadisonTennis

    MadisonTennis New User

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    Anubis, I used to play against 5.0 players when I was about 10 years younger but there is no way I could play with them today. That's why I was concerned.

    There were a couple of 5.0 guys that I played when we lived in DFW & one of them beat me 7-6 on average and the other one beat me normally 6-3 6-4. When we lived in Houston, I would play against 5.0s in doubles and normally split sets or was competitive but I was in my mid 30s. I just turned 48 and I just played 40&over league this year. On average, I lost about 2 games per match in league singles but that was at 4.0. I think I could hold my own at 4.5 40&over but I would stuggle against those younger guys at 4.5 18&over. Our local 4.5 18&over team is going to Nationals so I would think a good portion of those guys will be bumped to 5.0. At least I hope so!

    Not getting any younger (or faster). LOL...
     
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  6. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    4.5 40 & Over is actually 4.5+, so even in the remote chance you do get bumped to 5.0, you can play 4.5 40 & Over as a + player.
     
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  7. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    Both true.

    On #1, it really depends on specifics. And while the responses that unless you are playing up at 5.0 you are safe are generally true, there could be scenarios where just playing at 4.5 could get you bumped all the way from 4.0 to 4.5. I've seen scenarios where a player had a losing record at 4.5 and got DQ'd, not just bumped, to 5.0 (see http://computerratings.blogspot.com/2013/05/analysis-of-strange-dynamic-ntrp-dq-in.html)

    On #2, I agree that site is not very accurate. Others in the forum have pointed out numerous players that they have wildly wrong and and I just had someone respond to me based on the discussion in another thread (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=476375) to have me do some comparisons between my ratings and theirs and I was closer to the requester's perception and last year's year-end ratings in nearly every case.

    Contact me if you'd like more details or to get a report on where your rating likely is.
     
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  8. beernutz

    beernutz Hall of Fame

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    The TLS site finally added 2012 and 2013 for Southern league making it possible to look up my club and all the men I regularly play with or sometimes against. I wouldn't describe it as a complete joke but there are so many extreme outlier examples that the value of the listing as a whole is almost nil.
     
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  9. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    TLS can be a useful too, but you have to understand what it is and is not and how to interpret it correctly. Their algorithm clearly is NOT the same as the USTA's, and the differences and deficiencies have been discussed at length. Therefore, if you are intending to look at their rankings as a way to determine actual current USTA DNTRP or future bumps up or down, it will not be correct because it's an entirely different algorithm that could produce divergent results from the USTA for any given specific player. However, if you are just looking in general for a site that gives relative rankings for players in a district or section, it's not bad, especially (as dizzl has pointed out) for players with a large number of matches.
     
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  10. anubis

    anubis Hall of Fame

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    Also, OP: if you do happen to be bumped (which I don't think you will be) to a 5.0, you can appeal your rating.
     
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