Is the slam record now Nadal's for the taking?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by octogon, Jul 20, 2013.

  1. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

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    Looking at how Federer is playing now, it's difficult to see him adding to 17. Even one more slam win for Federer might make the record out of reach for Nadal.

    But if it stays at 17 (as it's looking like it might)....Nadal and Uncle Toni now know they have a reachable target to achieve. It'll be difficult with Murray and Djokovic in the way (and someone hugely dangerous like Del Potro, who could replace Federer within the "Big 4"), but I think Team Nadal have to be feeling quietly confident that it's not out of reach.
     
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  2. Phoenix1983

    Phoenix1983 Hall of Fame

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    Absolutely not.

    I'd be surprised if Nadal won another slam outside the FO.
     
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  3. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    No way. Nadal cannot stay healthy and has Cvac and Murray to contend with. He will not reach Pete's slam count much less Fed's.
     
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  4. mistik

    mistik Hall of Fame

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    Nadal lost his chance of being a record holder with his 2009 injury. İf not 09 injury Rafa would been great 08.09,10 back to back.Tennis wise Rafa isnt looking all that great nowadays.Clearly the likes of Murray and Djokovic are the players to beat not Rafa.
     
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  5. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Bionic Poster

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    He shot himself in one foot at Wimbledon. If he doesn't win the USO, it's a shot in the other one and it's a reynold's wrap on that.
     
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  6. Anaconda

    Anaconda Hall of Fame

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    With Djokovic about and getting stronger at the FO every year, I don't see too many slams on the horizon for Nadal.
     
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  7. tennis_hack

    tennis_hack Banned

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    Just because Federer slows down doesn't mean that Nadal speeds up by default.

    Nadal has the small thorns of Djokovic 1.5-2.0 and Lendl-ised Murray in his side, preventing him from mopping up the Slams with pathetic ease in this era of chokers.

    But I agree, Nadal'll get closer than he should to breaking Federer's Slam count simply because everyone who has the game to beat Nadal (including Murray) simply respects him to much, and does not put up 100% fight.
     
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  8. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

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    He'll defintely reach Pete. Even though Nadal got knocked out early in two consecutive wimbledon's, I feel this year in particular was more of a blip. He'd been playing hard since his return and reaching all finals, and winning his main goal of another Roland Garros. Nadal is always vulnerable the first week on grass at Wimbledon, and by not even playing a grass tune-up, he sort of sealed his own fate. But I still think Nadal, if he comes in with the correct attitude, can still win Wimbledon again.

    I think Nadal is a threat to win every major. Not neccesarily the outright favorite outside of clay, but on his day, he can still beat anyone on any surface.

    Also, it will be interesting to see Murray 2.0 and Nadal finally meet. I don't see Murray 2.0 causing Nadal the same sort of problems Djokovic 2.0 did, but till they meet again in a slam, it's all hypothetical.
     
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  9. Warmaster

    Warmaster Hall of Fame

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    I doubt it. After 2010 I believed it as well, but almost 3 years have passed since then and he has been unable to win a major off clay. It's becoming more and more unlikely. He won't keep winning at RG.

    I say he ends up with 14.
     
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  10. Chico

    Chico Banned

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    No. No way. Nadal has 1 or 2 RGs left in him (if Pascal Maria is referee) at the most. And even that is way too much for someone like that.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
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  11. ibbi

    ibbi Professional

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    I struggle to imagine how people can on one hand say that Federer is done and dusted, but on the other think that Nadal is some how going to stroll his way to 6 more slams. Can we stop to appreciate how difficult 6 slams are to amass? Since turning 27 Federer has garnered 5, and I think we can all safely say that his game allows him to succeed with the miles on the clock far more than Rafa's.
     
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  12. NatF

    NatF G.O.A.T.

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    His knee troubles are going to get worse not better. It's likely he'll have more extended gaps in the future, plus Djokovic and Murray are stronger on hardcourts than he is.
     
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  13. Incognito

    Incognito Hall of Fame

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    As if 5 majors are easy to get......
     
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  14. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

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    I don't think Nadal will "stroll" his way to 6 slams. But Nadal and his Uncle are target driven like few other people I've seen. If they believe something is realistically achievable (like adjusting to win Wimbledon, or adjusting to win the US Open, when few thought these things possible), then they work incredibly hard to make it happen. I personally feel the Nadals are still in the game for the slam record, otherwise, Nadal would already be retired and fishing with his knees rested in Majorca.

    Nadal is 27. He's far exceeded people's expectations of his longevity in the game, and everyone used to claim he'd be finished years ago due to his playing style. I think he's got another 3-4 years at least to still play high level tennis capable of winning a slam. if he doesn't miss a huge chunk of slams through injury again, he's capable of getting 2 slams a year. Nadal will probably be the world no.1 by the Australian Open next year, if not before that. That should suggest he still has more than a few slams left in him.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
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  15. Chico

    Chico Banned

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    #1 after AO, 2 slams a year for next 4 years :lol: :lol:

    Nice wishlist. To bad for you, it is not going to happen.
     
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  16. Vcore89

    Vcore89 Hall of Fame

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    5 slams away is a long ways to go...just like Murray is a long ways catching Djokovic.
     
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  17. RNadal

    RNadal Semi-Pro

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    I have this feeling that Nadal will do whatever he can to arrive at the 2016 Olympics and be competitive to play it and win. That being said, it's not an absurd to think that he can fetch 5 slams to his trophy room. I can see him winning at least 2 more RG, so it'll really depends on how he fares at the non-clay slams. Let's see :)
     
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  18. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    Should be easy. 6 RG's. No problem.
     
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  19. octogon

    octogon Semi-Pro

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    I thought Nadal was comfortable no.1 in the rankings race with no points to defend. if Nadal has a good hardcourt swing (and he'll have something to prove after the early Wimby exit, so he should be motivated), then he's going to be no.1.

    I never said he will win 2 slams a year for the next 4 years (is reading comprehension an issue?:)). I said he's still capable of two slam years. Even if he "only" has has two more 2 slam years (not impossible, if you assume he's always the favorite for the French), then that gets him very close to the record. The closer Nadal gets to the record, the more motivated he and Toni will be to break it. Even if it means Nadal spending the rest of his life on crutches.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
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  20. monfed

    monfed Guest

    The so called tennis pundits that have been saying since 2005 that Nadal wouldn't last one winter. But Nadal has infact lasted 9 consecutive seasons,he actually has the record for a guy who plays arguably the most punishing style of tennis the game has ever seen. So underestimate Ralph at your own peril. If these tennis pundits still haven't learnt their lesson then god help them.

    I think it's safe to say(or is it? :lol: ) that Nadal's not winning slams in 2016. So as it stands, he has to win 5 out of the next 9 slams starting from USO 2013 to equal Fed's slam count and 6/9 to surpass it. It's a tall order but doable.

    The slams he has the best shot of winning imo are:

    1)RG
    2)AO
    3)Wimby
    4)USO.

    RG:
    He could win 1 or 2 RGs OR he could lose to Novak next year and disappear into oblivion. But I don't still see an end to his RG reign anywhere in the near future,sadly. So 1-2 RGs is a conservative estimate given that Novak is his ONLY threat there who still hasn't beaten him and Delpo has an outside shot but he has to play first.That's 14 slams out of which 10 would be RGs. :lol:

    Wimby: I know he's flamed out in 2 consecutive Wimbys in the first week. But that's the catch for me because history shows that when Ralph does make the second week he ends up in the final. So say he somehow luckily makes it to 2nd week(like he did in 2010) out of the next 2 Wimbys, he could snag 1?

    Slam count: 15.

    AO: I believe after RG, AO is his best chance for a HC slam. Nice slow high bouncing surface(like IW 2013) suits his spinners. 2014 maybe his last chance though since he might be seeded 1 or 2 for it and Novak might lose the SF to Murray and Ralph might beat the latter in the final. Recall that Ralph came tantalisingly close to beating the unbeatable GOAT at the AO *cough* Yoda *cough* in 2012, so he might make another final there and end up on the winning side.
    So, taking all things into account, let's say 1 AO.

    Slam count: 16

    USO: He has 3 bites at the cherry(2013-2015 included). Realise that he's always gone deep at USO since 08(SF,SF,W,F,DNP) so writing him off would be silly. Say he gets another USO 10 draw he could bag 1 more(would be much easier if he avoids Novak here).

    Final Slam count :17(10 RG, 3 Wimby, 2 AO, 2 USO). So ofcourse it's doable and a lot will depend on how he'll handle Novak and Murray, the former being his biggest threat at RG and the latter at Wimby and their combined threat at HC slams.

    I must say that outside of Novak and Murray, I can't see anyone else beating Nadal in slams(except getting Rosoled in the first week of Wimby) till 2015 USO, a big statement to make but it's the internet so what the heck. :)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 20, 2013
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  21. clayqueen

    clayqueen Hall of Fame

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    This is all wishful thinking.
     
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  22. clayqueen

    clayqueen Hall of Fame

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    So everyone is a Belieber in Nadal.:):):)
     
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  23. Day Tripper

    Day Tripper Semi-Pro

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    can't believe people on here still think Nadal has a shot at this. You do realize that Nadal has only won one slam a year for the last three years. That ship sailed long ago.
     
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  24. pennc94

    pennc94 Semi-Pro

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    Is Roland Garros going to be played more than once a year? If so, then maybe.
     
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  25. Omega_7000

    Omega_7000 Hall of Fame

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    I wouldn't say impossible. Improbable: Yes. Impossible: No

    Outside the FO, I think he always will have a shot at the AO. People write off players too quick. The expectations for Fed and Nadal have to be lowered now that they have been on tour so long and broken so many records it is natural to have a drop in the hunger and drive to win more.

    I just don't see how Nadal will have motivation to win the FO again. After winning it 8 freaking times, I would say he will probably be hungrier to win other slams.
     
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  26. Morj

    Morj Semi-Pro

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    People are saying that theres a small, tiny chance that he can win 5-6 more FO and catch up. This is of course ridiculous; one need only watch this years FO semis to see that the Djoko threat is only increasing. However, lets pretend this fantasy does play out and Nadal dominates the FO for years to come and catches Fed's 17.

    Now think about this Nadal fans, is this actually a respectable feat? to have 13 FO's is of course impressive, but would you feel good that Nadal has only 4 slams on other surfaces? Would this even be a legitimate argument for GOAT? This would just fuel the idea that Nadal is just a clay-court specialist who's game happened to match up with Fed's on other surfaces. This would actually be bad for Nadal's legacy if he only keeps winning FO's, if anything he needs to take a risk and stop focusing on clay if he wants to get back in the running for greatest ever.

    I say, he should actually consider skipping the French Open so that he can be ready for Wimbledon and make the adjustments he needs to stop losing to guys ranked 100. Right now he's probably best suited to contend for the Australian, but Djoko might be too strong on that surface. On the other hand, when Nadal is playing well on grass he is far superior to the likes of Murray (world's best grasscourter, lol). If he can regain his grasscourt form, he has a better chance there than challenging Djoko/Murray on hardcourts.
     
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  27. jackson vile

    jackson vile Legend

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    Nadal is amazing, and has performed countless miracles in his life time, however his mind and body are no longer dedicated to tennis like they once were.

    So I have to agree, honestly I am not even sure he will win the FO next year. It would become rather silly if he kept winning the FO until his retirement though.

    I do feel that Nadal is close to retirement. It will not be official or anything, he will all of a sudden just drop out of the tournament or right before and just be like "I'm done, thank you all, but time to live my life with out the dictatorship of uncle Tony.".

     
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  28. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    Lol yourself! At this moment in time, there is no question that Murray is the world's best grasscourter. This year he has won 2 grasscourt titles including Wimbledon. Federer has won one, Nadal and Djokovic, none! It's a no-brainer really!
     
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  29. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Winning a slam is a respectable feat no matter which one it is. What's not respectable, is trying to downgrade a player's achievements just because he wins a slam you don't prefer.

    Sure would. Do you say the same for Cvac who has one slam out of 6 off of hardcourts? I doubt you will. And since when is winning 4 slams such a small accomplishment? How many players would love to have Nadal's lousy 4 slams outside of clay? I'm guessing a whole lot.

    And no, he should not skip RG since its his best chance of winning a slam. The only reason people are suggesting he do something so stupid is so that he wins nothing, not because they really give a crap about which surface he wins a slam on.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
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  30. mistik

    mistik Hall of Fame

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    Do ı want to see Nadal winning slam again outside RG. Honest answer yes. Do ı bother he ends up with 12 RG titles. Honest answer. Couldnt care less what the haters say or how they would try to downgrade the success. I wouldn enjoy every second of those achievements as a fan.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
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  31. Morj

    Morj Semi-Pro

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    I got a little carried away, Murray's an excellent grasscourter. Nadal's had a bad couple of years at Wimby, but all I'm saying that if he took some time off to focus on regaining his grasscourt form, he would definetely be considered the world's best grasscourter again.

    Nadal: 5 time finalist, 2 time champion. One of the best grasscourters of the open era. Add in the fact that he's 3-0 against Murray at Wimbledon, and its clear to anyone that should Nadal regain his old grass court form, he'd be the best grass courter in the world. That's why i'm saying Wimby would be easier for him to win than AO or USO, where Djoko/Murray are both better than him.
     
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  32. NatF

    NatF G.O.A.T.

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    10+ titles at one slam would be absolutely immense. Depending on your criteria it could be a GOAT making achievement. Not for me but for some it would be.
     
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  33. MTF07

    MTF07 Semi-Pro

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    There's nothing to suggest that Nadal will ever regain that form. Honestly, he looks done on grass.
     
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  34. Morj

    Morj Semi-Pro

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    I think i came off as slamming Rafa, which is not what i meant. Of course 17 slams is amazing, no matter what type. But 5-6 more FO's is not the ideal legacy for Nadal if he wants to surpass Fed. Keep in mind that I'm talking about his place in history as a GOAT candidate, not just as a great player. Theres no point in talking about Djoko's majority of slams being Aussie Opens, because as of right now, Djoko's no where near the GOAT discussion, hes still at the level of Becker/Edberg types.

    Here, the thread is directly comparing Nadal to Fed, and I'm saying that if Nadal only wins slams on FO from here on out, it will not be good for his legacy if he means to surpass Fed. No matter what, at this point he has clearly surpassed all other open era players save for Fed/Laver, and he is roughly at Sampras/Borg level.

    I have nothing against the FO in any way, but for Nadal to clearly surpass Sampras/Borg and reach Fed in terms of legacy, then he needs to show he is one of the "best ever" in general, and not just "best ever at clay, and also pretty good at other surfaces".
     
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  35. mistik

    mistik Hall of Fame

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    Sorry the likes of Borg and Sampras not even manage to win all four slams. Why should Nadal has to do anything significant to pass them. :):)
     
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  36. moonballs

    moonballs Hall of Fame

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    Only easy to Fed. Nadal fans are in for a lot of disappoint at Rafas retirement if they really believe the h2h is a reliable indicator of greatness. I think he will get 14.
     
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  37. LotusTang

    LotusTang Rookie

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    I think it's highly unlikely.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2013
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  38. Bertie B

    Bertie B Semi-Pro

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    Except for the AO, Djokovic will be offline until 2015. With Murray as his main opponent in future I think it's doable.
     
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  39. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Sampras never won RG or even made a final there, yet he was hailed as the King of the mountain until Fed arrived. I think him never winning RG is a much bigger hole in his resume than Nadal winning too many RG titles for your liking.

    Borg never won the USO or the AO. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on the AO, but not the USO. Nadal passed Borg when he won RG this year so I don't really even know why you brought him up.


    No offense but this is just nonsense. Nadal is one of the best ever already. he has proven he can win slams on all surfaces unlike the anointed Borg and Sampras you mention earlier. No matter if Nadal never wins another slam he is an all time great on all surfaces no matter how much you wish he weren't.
     
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  40. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    What does your crystal ball say about Nadal? :)
     
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  41. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Murray's the best grass courter by default, he didn't have to earn it like Nadal in 2008 or Federer in 2007. His Wimbledon draw was a joke until the final where he faced a scattered Djokovic (who is far from being a great grass courter despite his 2011 win). If Nadal and Federer were still anything close to their primes Murray would never win Wimbledon and he knows it. So it's a default, taking his opportunity and "waiting through" Nadal and Federer.
     
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  42. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal is already the flat out best clay courter ever. But winning more FO's would hurt his "GOAT status" as for making him look more one-dimensional. I'm sure Nadal himself would want another Wimbledon or US instead of winning the French all the time.
     
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  43. Bertie B

    Bertie B Semi-Pro

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    I was referencing Nadal there.

    The awful, awful state he's been in since April 2011 comes to an end this September.
     
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  44. NatF

    NatF G.O.A.T.

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    I think the GOAT needs to be the dominant player of an era first and foremost. That means dominating multiple surfaces.
    So I would not move Nadal up to Federer's/ Laver's level even if he won 14 FO'. But for alot of people the fact he's proven himself on other surfaces e.g. that he can win despite not being top 10 all time there, it would be enough. More slams couldn't hurt him really.
     
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  45. Morj

    Morj Semi-Pro

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    Don't say "no offense" because your comments are all make assumptions about my opinions and targeting me directly. Nadal is an all-time great on all surfaces, everybody knows that. This thread is comparing Nadal directly to Federer, and I'm saying that if Nadal catches Federer by winning only FO's then that is not the best legacy for him to leave behind. He is already in the top few Open Era players, but if he wants to surpass Fed as GOAT then it would be better for him to add to his non FO titles.

    Every Nadal fan must realize that the only thing he is doing right now is further cementing his status as Clay GOAT. Every FO he wins from here on will just continue to prove he is Clay GOAT. I'm saying that by adding to his non FO slam count then he can actually be considered GOAT in general, considering the bonus of H2H against everyone.
     
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  46. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Who does your crystal ball say will win the USO? :)
     
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  47. Bertie B

    Bertie B Semi-Pro

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    In 2005 it was the FO that Nadal won to get things started. In 2011, 2012, & 2013 (down cycle years) this same event was threatened, and he withstood the challenges gallantly. These key defenses will act as springboard for the second half of his career.
     
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  48. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Er... right. Still, how many titles do Djoko/Murray have at the moment? 3 and 4. Rafa has 7. How many masters for Djoko/Murray? 1. Rafa has 3. I really don't see Rafa as such a huge underdog as long as he keeps playing.
     
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  49. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    Murray will be the 1st favorite. Still, his 5 setter vs Verdasco at Wimby shows how vulnerable to an upset he can be + Rafa has a good record against him anyway.
     
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  50. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    It doesn't mean anything. Nadal had also not won a master on hard court since 2009 (4 years ago) and he still won IW in 2013. He won USO in 2010 and made the final in 2011. He didn't play it in 2012 but if he does this time, I like his chances to go deep.
     
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