Is TRN accurate data

Discussion in 'Junior League & Tournament Talk' started by Freak4tennis, Aug 19, 2011.

  1. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    Regretfully I have seen many players especially foreign that come back as younger players and are "re TRN'd" as younger players. I submit that TRN is simply a case of garbage in / garbage out and that all coaches should seriously consider the data behind it.

    Example a boy who in 2006 played in the boys 12s went back to his home country and is now back in a different state as a "freshman" 2015 graduate?????
     
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  2. DownTheLine

    DownTheLine Hall of Fame

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    This is way off topic, but I think they weigh the sections...

    I've seen a player thats 8-0 against 1 stars 14-1 against 2 stars 6-3 against 3 stars and has a win over a 4 star

    and is still ranked under a player that is 2-1 unranked 3-1 against 1 stars 2-0 2 stars 1-4 3 stars and 0-4 aginst 4 stars...

    just because player two is from Socal
     
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  3. tennis5

    tennis5 Professional

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    TRN is a small company, and does not have the funds to do detective work.

    However, they are very receptive to any phone call about a player who commits fraud in regards to their age,

    and will act quickly to remedy the situation.

    Just make sure you have all your facts before you place the phone call.

    They will want a lot of details.
     
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  4. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    Honest. I have no "axes" against them or their endeavor to make money. BUT when you are dealing with data that can in fact be manipulated by third parties to the extent that it affects others. One does have to question 1) the validity of the data 2) simply whether you as a coach should count on the data.
     
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  5. tball2day

    tball2day Semi-Pro

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    ...............................
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2012
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  6. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 19, 2011
    #6
  7. Soianka

    Soianka Hall of Fame

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    He's 14 and a freshman. That seems about right to me.

    What seems wrong about it to you?

    If he's the same kid who played the 12's in 2006, he would have been 10 then. That's hardly reason for alarm. Lots of 10 year olds play the 12 and unders.
     
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  8. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    ^^^^November birth month. And a world traveling ITF. Honest I could care less. I care for the kids losing $$$ to this kid.
     
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  9. racket-e

    racket-e New User

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    They don't. There are tons of explanations for why stars do not necessarily mean certain players are better. First of all, age. A 3 star sophomore usually is about even with a 4 star freshman just as an example. Second of all someone could be a 4 star and be ranked 300 because the star ratings had not been updated yet, while someone could be a 2 star and be rated 300 for the same reason. Even after the rating period a 3 star can be between 175-400, a 2 star anywhere between 401-1000ish, etc.
     
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  10. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    You are 100% correct "they don't". Seriously it's too much data for a small company to compile accurately. Add to that the saviness of parents and federations, add to that the freedom in which we are giving "big time" scholarships and one has to question the accuracy of the data and whether or not there should be ANY credibility placed upon it.

    Now if you factor in that they may not be credible, then add the PPR (points per round) concept. You wonder for a second???????
     
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  11. tennisforlife77

    tennisforlife77 Rookie

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    TRN rankings are pretty accurate - I say this from 5/6 years of watching my kids TRN ranking and how they perform against kids ranked above/below them. PPR has nothing to do with their rankings and is irrelevant to what they do. It is a great service for a reasonable price.Coaches can figure out pretty quickly if the data is being manipulated.
     
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  12. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    No college coach in his right mind is going to give a scholarship based on TRN alone. There's many more factors coaches look at such as, grades, work ethic, national and sectional rankings, upside potential, referrals (tennis, academic and personal), videos, in person visits and or phone calls, emails, manners, etc.

    TRN is just one tool. Don't let it rule your life and more importantly don't let it and rankings get in the head of your tennis players. Just practice and play hard, and focus on what you can control. Good luck.
     
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  13. DownTheLine

    DownTheLine Hall of Fame

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    same age, all rankings fit
     
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  14. watergirl

    watergirl New User

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    I know a couple of people that write for TRN and they say yes the sections (maybe it was states) are weighted.
     
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  15. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    I'd say they are weighted due to the talent that's there, which if fair. Hopefully Dallas will jump in.
     
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  16. ClarkC

    ClarkC Hall of Fame

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    Students born in November of 1996 are expected to be in the 9th grade this year in the typical USA school system. If you disagree, please post a link to the guidelines of a school district that say otherwise.

    An entire thread based on nothing but ignorance. Amazing.
     
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  17. ClarkC

    ClarkC Hall of Fame

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    Here are the registration guidelines for my county's schools.

    Note:

    So, the Japanese player whose ITF page was linked, who was born in November of 1996, would not be allowed to enroll in our kindergarten in August of 2001, because he would not turn 5 by September 30. He would have to enroll in kindergarten in August of 2002 or August of 2003. He cannot enroll in 12th grade in August of 2016, because that is too old, so he should not enroll in kindergarten as late as August of 2004 because then he could not finish on time.

    If his parents chose the earlier date of August of 2002, he would be entering the 9th grade this fall. That is the normal age. If they chose the later date (perhaps they judged him to be immature for his age), he would be entering the 8th grade this year. The Japanese player linked is entering the 9th grade, and would not even have been allowed to enroll in our school system at such an age as to be entering 10th grade this year.

    However, don't let facts get in the way of whining about rankings.
     
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  18. tennis5

    tennis5 Professional

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    Clark, this is your public school from your regional area.

    The public schools here, and where I grew up, have a different date of December 31st.

    So, Freak Tennis is looking at a November birthday,

    and thinking they should be in the next grade.

    The bigger issue is that TRN should just published the birth month and year.
     
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  19. tennis5

    tennis5 Professional

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    The coaches also call the sectionals to ask about the kid ( cheating, sportsmanship) ...

    And the coaches will also call a local coach from that area, and ask about the kid's reputation too.

    The coaches don't want nightmare kids that disrupt the team...
     
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  20. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    I basically said that. Quoting myself "referrals (tennis, academic and personal)" and also mentioned "manners". I did not specifically mention sportsmanship, but yes that's a factor. I made my list quickly but when mentioning a coach checking referrals they of course want to know what kind of reputation the kid has.

    I heard they don't do that for foreigners though, only American players get scrutinized. :wink:
     
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  21. FedExpress 333

    FedExpress 333 Professional

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    Because it is not possible to get a rep on a kid from another country.
     
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  22. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    Is is possible and most coaches have connections to do so. That was sarcasm, did you see the wink?

    Are mistakes made? Yes, for foreign and American athletes.
     
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  23. dallasoliver

    dallasoliver Rookie

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    Pretty strong words.

    The TRN rankings make use of the following data:

    (1) match results between players from USTA and ITF junior tournaments, and
    (2) graduation years for players.

    To be clear, I understand that your beef is with (2), which is a concern that has been discussed at length on other threads in this forum, including this one most recently:

    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=380741

    I don't want to rehash all those arguments here, but I will make a few comments:

    - Graduation years for players nationally (and internationally!) is not data that is easily available to anyone in general.
    - We rely on players/parents to specify their graduation years - and we use comments from the community in general to help us police these dates.
    - We have policies in place that prevent players/parents from making spurious modifications to their graduation years. Graduation years for players get "locked" in our system - and we oftentimes require documentation and manual intervention for updates.
    - Although the theoretical issue that you raise has been raised before, we have had very few specific complaints about players - and we also try to jump on any problems raised by the community as quickly as possible. Just send an email to "support at tennisrecruiting dot net" and we will look into specific situations.
    - Before a player/parent specifies a graduation year, we use "provisional graduation years" based on players' birthdates. You will often see something like "Class of 2015 - Provisional" next to a player's name. In those instances, we have made educated guesses on the graduation year. We are right most of the time, but there are many situations where, say, a player born in February is held back until the next year - or a player who is born in November is ahead a grade. The former situation happens most often with boys, while the latter occurs most often with girls.
    - Our educated guesses on provisional graduation year are based on players' ages with the assumption that the cutoff for each grade is July 31. For example, a player born on August 22, 1997 would be classified as a rising 8th-grader in the Class of 2016.
    - Complicating everything is the fact that we do not have precise birthdates for all players. For many players, we approximate the birthdates (i.e., "provisional birthdates") based on the tournaments that players have competed in. For example, a player who competes in a 12s tournament in August would be forced to have a birthdate no earlier than August 1, 1999. We have systems in place to update these "provisional birthdates" - we make players "younger" all the time as we get more information.

    At the end of the day, we do the best we can, and many people are pleased with the results. (Many college coaches do use our rankings as a recruiting tool - and if they ever stop doing so, we will be out of business.) We think our rankings are very accurate, and we believe that we get graduation years right the vast majority of the time.

    A completely different issue mentioned in this thread is the situation where players are "held back" for tennis so that they can be older than their peers in the same grade. I am not discussing that here - there are hundreds of posts in the referenced thread that cover that issue in as much detail as you would like. :)


    I hope this helps.

    Best regards,
    Dallas

    dallas at tennisrecruiting dot net
     
    #23
  24. klu375

    klu375 Semi-Pro

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    Dallas,
    Could you please jump in on this one.
     
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  25. dallasoliver

    dallasoliver Rookie

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    This is another issue that has been often discussed.

    Our ranking system just uses match results for rankings. Rankings for all players are calculated without regard for the age of opponents, graduation year of opponents, state or section, or the tournament in which the match was played. We rank ALL players using only the match results to produce one unified ranking (per gender), and then we filter that single ranking into seven rankings - one for each graduation year.

    I hope this helps.

    Best regards,
    Dallas
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2011
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  26. dallasoliver

    dallasoliver Rookie

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    I was already typing. :)

    Best,
    Dallas
     
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  27. klu375

    klu375 Semi-Pro

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    Yes, I was very impressed with your typing speed. :)
    Thanks for your answers as usual.
     
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  28. Tennishacker

    Tennishacker Professional

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    Dallas,

    How does your calculations work when a junior plays an ITF and loses to a player that has no ranking/presence on TRN or USTA?
     
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  29. dallasoliver

    dallasoliver Rookie

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    Those matches carry very little weight. A player's significance in the rankings increases with the number of matches he/she plays. For example, if Player X has only one match result - a win over Djokovic - that win will probably not have much impact on Djokovic's ranking.

    Best,
    Dallas
     
    #29
  30. TennisCoachFLA

    TennisCoachFLA Banned

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    If I understand his question he was asking more about whether you consider ITF opponents. For example if a kid plays and loses to some top ITF player who would have no TRN ranking does that hurt him or have no effect? Or maybe I misunderstood him.
     
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  31. dallasoliver

    dallasoliver Rookie

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    Hi FLA -

    Maybe I am missing something - or I am just being confusing - but I believe my earlier answer applies...

    Matches against unknown opponents carry very little weight. A player who is, say, 1-0, with a single win over a TRN player, then the only thing our head-to-head system knows is that the unknown player is better than the TRN player.

    That loss win will have little impact on the TRN player's ranking.

    We try to avoid these situations by restricting the tournaments we use in TRN. We only use ITF tournaments on U.S. soil, ITF tournaments with significant U.S. representation, and the highest-level ITF tournaments (which always have Americans playing in them).

    http://www.tennisrecruiting.net/faq/rankings.asp#Rankings-J

    I hope this makes more sense.

    Best regards,
    Dallas
     
    #31
  32. DownTheLine

    DownTheLine Hall of Fame

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    Dallasoliver please check your e-mail that is linked to your account. I just sent you one
     
    #32
  33. TennisCoachFLA

    TennisCoachFLA Banned

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    Thanks Dallas. At least for me your paragraph on which ITFs and how ITF tournaments are applied answers my question.
     
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  34. Tennisstringz

    Tennisstringz New User

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    I've been watching my three kids girls and a boy through the college recruiting years throughout the time that Tennis Recruiting.Net has been a big resource for coaches.

    These are my observations:

    Don't pay attention to these TRN rankings at all before freshman year. No coach cares. The only people who care are the parents and kids. But all you're doing is wasting alot of emotion. The coaches only start peeking after freshman year, and only if you are top 100 or click onto their TRN university link when logged in.

    You're better off having a lower ranking than you are capable of your freshman year. Say in ninth grade, you are capable of playing at a ranking of 100-125 or so. Let yourself drop to 175-180 or even lower. It doesn't matter. Don't play many tournaments and just get better. Then from junior year to senior year, you will look like a rising star and have little pressure because you're the underdog. Try to get in the top 75 by senior year. Senior year, coaches will look at previous ranking and say,"look at how much potential this kid has." Of course, it is all manufactured.

    On the converse side, a truly good player may have an unfortunate injury junior year and drop. There is no way for this to be evident to a coach unless the parent speaks to them directly The parent then has to weigh the risk of looking like damaged goods vs looking like someone who maxed out playing "baby tennis" in the 14s and 16 but not able to handle the 18 level.

    TRN recruiting lists are inherently statistically flawed for players with less than 20 (yes twenty!) matches in their current star level or higher with another 10 from higher and lower. Wins against the same kid, should not count more than twice in a kid's best wins. That is duplicating the same data point. Put an asterisk next to any player who does not meet the minimum data points. This will encourage more playing and less "hiding" after a few big wins.

    40 matches need to be registered, believe, for the rankings to be closer to players true abilities. 20 at the current star level, 10 higher , 10 lower. Of course blue chips are are different story. Any less than that, kids really may be "sandbagging" or "overrated."

    The data is skewed by "injuries" or "illness." Whether real or fake. Nobody likes to take a tough loss, but some kids withdraw or retire so as not to lose face. Beating a top ranked kid who is playing at less than their best due to coming back from injury or illness, or who gets sick during the tournament can really help a lower player. We've had opportunities to beat a high ranked player, but they withdrew before the match because of injury. I guess that is fair to the rankings, but we had kids be magically injured when they were higher ranked than us, but after they are below you, they are never injured.

    Cheating doesn't register on this ranking system. Unfortunately it doesn't on any. That is the inherent flaw of junior tennis. There are kids who will win because they will cheat on the key points. Any close match will go to them. A competitive match (more than 8 games won by the loser) should have some weight in the system.

    It is better than the USTA rankings. USTA rankings outside of the top 20 are absolutely meaningless. USTA rankings should only be taken into consideration for "weeding out" really bad players so that time is not wasted on Regional and Natl tournaments playing kids who have no reason being there. Even the seeding in tournaments is suspect.
     
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  35. dallasoliver

    dallasoliver Rookie

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    DTL -

    I missed this... and I just found the email in my spam folder. I tried to email you back, but the email bounced. Can you email me directly at dallas at tennisrecruiting dot net?

    Best,
    Dallas
     
    #35
  36. Pro_Tour_630

    Pro_Tour_630 Legend

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    EXCELLENT SUMMERY THANKS
     
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  37. Keysmickey

    Keysmickey Rookie

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    As someone who finished with this in 2011 I have a very strong opinion of TRN. They (TRN) are more than just "another tool" as has been suggested. To be sure there are other huge factors that coaches will use when evaluating a recruit but TRN was the website I saw on virtually every coaches computer when in their offices during visits.

    It is true that rankings before freshman year mean little but then senior year is equally as useless because coaches have to have established 'relationships' before that most of the time. Therefore, sophomore and especially JUNIOR year are most important.

    As for the rankings themselves we found that the actual number seemed to mean little to most coaches but more important was who you played, who you beat, who you lost to and by what score and is your star on the rise, the decline or basically the same from previous years.

    But with all that said, the recruiting of four and five star players comes down to thirds IMO, one third tennis ability, one third grades and one third character/personality.
     
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  38. jigglypuff

    jigglypuff Rookie

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    That's a pretty fair assessment for 3-5 star recruits.
     
    #38
  39. klu375

    klu375 Semi-Pro

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    Does this assessment applicable to Ivy League or to all schools?
    And what is the ratio for blue chips in your opinion?
     
    #39
  40. Keysmickey

    Keysmickey Rookie

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    Good question. No, ivy's are a different beast and so are the great D3 schools. In these cases grades, more importantly test scores, MUST be made. Plus the fact that athletic scholarships aren't offered to the best of my knowledge, makes tennis a great accompaniment or incentive for the school but not the main factor for entrance.

    IMO, the ratio for blue chips looking to attend the big tennis schools would be sixty percent tennis acumen, twenty five percent for grades and 15 percent character. Winning takes much more precedent, IMO.

    These are my opinions but my daughter, although a 3.93 high school gpa, did not want the severe challenge of an ivy school plus tennis, so our pursuit of them was minimal.
     
    #40
  41. tennis5

    tennis5 Professional

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    It has been very disappointing ( and I would say surprising) for many of my friends
    with seniors this year that the Ivys are skipping over their higher rated star kids
    for lower rated kids with better grades ( whole package of gpa. honors, # of AP classes, two SAT subject matter tests and SAT).
    It goes against the whole theory that schools just want the "best athletes".

    The two kids who were homeschooled academy kids, fared the worse, and they were girls, not boys.
    They ended up in colleges in places where no one wants to go.
    I felt bad for the parents here because they spent a fortune on the tennis academies, and I think the academies misled them on college acceptance rates.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2011
    #41

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