ISNER vs MAHUT ... What are the Odds to Repeat?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Love Game, Jun 18, 2011.

  1. Love Game

    Love Game Talk Tennis Guru

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    Wimbledon's longest (70-68 in the fifth set ) match in history (in 2010) ......................
    [​IMG]

    MAIN DRAW, SECTION 3 GENTLEMEN'S SINGLES, WIMBLEDON 2011

    David Ferrer ESP (7) v Benoit Paire FRA
    Ivan Dodig CRO v qualifier
    Carlos Berlocq ARG v qualifier
    Andrey Golubev KAZ v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez ESP (26)
    Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR (22) v Fernando Gonzalez CHI
    qualifier v Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo ESP
    Grigor Dimitrov BUL v qualifier
    qualifier v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12)
    Nicolas Almagro ESP (16) v Jarkko Nieminen FIN
    John Isner USA v Nicolas Mahut FRA
    Somdev Devvarman IND v Denis Gremelmayr GER
    Juan Monaco ARG v Mikhail Youzhny RUS (18 )
    David Nalbandian ARG (28 ) v Julian Reister GER
    Florent Serra FRA v Andreas Haider-Maurer AUT
    Adrian Mannarino FRA v qualifier
    Mikhail Kukushkin KAZ v Roger Federer SUI (3)

    http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/ms/r1s3.html

    "out of the 128 competitors in the men's draw, the players were pitted against each other in the opening round for a second consecutive year to set up a rematch." :shock:

    Cruel Coincidence? Even tho Isner won his first round match last year, he got whacked in his second round match due to exhaustion and wear and tear on the body.

    I need some suggestions for wording the poll for this thread.
    Question: Is this draw actually "the luck of the draw"???? :?:
     
    #1
  2. nadalbestclass

    nadalbestclass Hall of Fame

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    #2
  3. tacou

    tacou Legend

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    there are multiple threads, and the odds for any two unseeded players meeting in the first round is .7%
     
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  4. Love Game

    Love Game Talk Tennis Guru

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    thanks y'all!!! :mrgreen:

    so if it's 0.7% for "any two," then would it be double, or rather half, of that for two who'd met in the first the previous year? :confused:
     
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  5. lawrence

    lawrence Hall of Fame

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    not double. i think it goes something like 0.7% * 0.7% (0.007 * 0.007) which gives 0.0049% (0.000049) chance

    i could be completely wrong though, been a long time since i've done any math lol
     
    #5
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  7. kOaMaster

    kOaMaster Hall of Fame

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    no?! to both of you.

    this means: the chances mahut and isner meeting again in this years first round is 0.71% (1/141.7andsoon). this is calculated considering the fact that both players are unseeded.


    so if you asked before the draw, what are the chances mahut meets isner again in the first round, the correct answer would've been 0.7%.

    the chances of e.g. sela meeting gil were also 0.7% as they were both unseeded as well.

    take a look here:
    http://blogs.montrealgazette.com/2011/06/17/mahut-isner-what-are-the-odds/

    (I assume the calculations are correct)
     
    #7
  8. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    I hope it's a 5-setter, something like 18-16 in the fifth set.
     
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  9. 1970CRBase

    1970CRBase Guest

    I love Mahut but I don't expect it to be very close. Straight sets for Isner.
     
    #9
  10. cp37070

    cp37070 Rookie

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    Initially I was hoping for an anti-climatic 3 setter but now I hope the first set tie-break goes on for 3 days. And the resulting four set lasts at least a day each.
     
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  11. Tammo

    Tammo Banned

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    if it goes 5 sets then it will go to like 20-20, but somebody has to win it in 3 or 4 to prevent that.
     
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  12. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    Well, they are a lot closer rankings-wise than they were a year ago. During last year's match, Isner was world number 19 and Mahut was world number 148. At the present time, Isner is world number 46 and Mahut is world number 99.

    Last year, Mahut was a qualifier, having beaten Bogdanovic and Koubek in epic Q2 and Q3 qualifiers. He beat Bogdanovic 24-22 in the third set and beat Koubek in 5 sets after being 2 sets down.
     
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  13. tacou

    tacou Legend

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    I have the feeling Isner will take this easily, but that's hoping he's got some confidence after a good match against Nadal. He's been having an off year and Mahut is lethal on grass sometimes..really hard match to call, can't wait to watch

    I think I read somewhere its going to be on center, can anyone confirm?
     
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  14. Love Game

    Love Game Talk Tennis Guru

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    good points ... especially about which court ... they'd have to at least put it on one of the show courts with a roof to prevent a too cruel delay by either rain or darkness! :evil:
     
    #14
  15. mr_eko

    mr_eko Professional

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    This match should be played on Court 18. Starting on the same day as last year and the same time. They have to recreate the exact same circumstances as lat year. It's the only way to do this match justice.

    Please don't put this on centre court. Am I the only one that actually wants to see 70-68 eclipsed?
     
    #15
  16. pound cat

    pound cat G.O.A.T.

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    I suspect it will be an normal tennis match that will be 3 or 4 sets, Isner winning. Last year's serving frenzy will likely never be repeated in the ATP...it was an anomaly.


    If you want it to happen again you will have to go to youtube and watch the highlights.
     
    #16

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