just FYI - interesting match for DB

Discussion in 'Junior League & Tournament Talk' started by mikej, Nov 2, 2012.

  1. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    yep, if all the posters in this thread were six year olds who were being fed 'honey, you can be anything you want' by their parents - i would understand

    but adults thinking DB has a chance of being a successful pro - come on, educate yourself about the different levels of tennis and face reality

    again, they will in a couple years
     
  2. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    haha, you're probably right

    i'm almost positive there either - 1) is or 2) is not - a predictive pattern

    just messing with you man, go for it if you're up for that breakdown, but probably going to take more than 25 players to get a big sample from a bunch of different countries - not a task i'm up for
     
  3. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    thanks man, no problem, was curious myself

    monfils-murray was a good year

    so was the year baghdatis and tsonga were battling for #1
     
  4. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    No worries. I'm pretty thick skinned. Will take a lot more than just a bit of sarcasm to get me.

    I may have someone that I can get to do it. I will tell you why. Some countries have access to many more ITF events than others. Take Western Europe they have literally hundreds of ITF Jr and Pro Circuit events per year. Where Eastern European countries may not have as many.

    At the end of the day it's about winning matches, the higher the rung of matches your winning the better your going to do. Everything else is a lot of dialog.

    Kudla is a good example winning a $75K or $100K he will be inside the top 150 or so. At 20, he's right on track to what the ITF deems within the averages. Between 19 - 20 the average year end rank of a top 100 player is 208
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 8, 2012
  5. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    So what happens if the kid gets a "result" in the next two years? Do we then give him a chance? Or do the "results" have to occur before he turns 17?

    Peliwo, no titles or results to speak of before winning PanAm at 17, then goes on to have a year that he had. At 16, Peliwo s peers, like Halebian, Kruger and Broady were hailed to be the next best thing. Filip was never mentioned in the same breath. 18 months later he had the year he had. Not advocating that DB will follow this particular path but certainly very few would have seen Peliwo s success. I ll be honest, I did not.

    Again, this is not about whether DB will make it or not. It s about a junior s development is a process that does not end just because he ages out. Ronnie Schneider won kzoo a year ago, a great result! Are we to assume that his chances of making a pro career are higher than DB s?
     
  6. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    that's something i think we can all agree with

    unfortunately, those rungs are kind of subjective, and rankings help quantify the results in a little more of an objective fashion that lets us look at the trends without bickering over how good of a win x,y,z was
     
  7. BirdieLane

    BirdieLane New User

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    I think you have to give DB more time. I think best hope for comparisons would be Isner, Querry, and Anderson. I don't know their stories but maybe some out there do. I don't think there's much for gold balls/national championship between them and I don't think many would have projected them to be top 50 players based on their junior results. The first time I saw Isner, my comment was that he had a 4.0 game with an untouchable serve. He's brought his game up to about 5.0-5.5 now but obviously his ticket is an unplayable serve.

    Everyone's odds at age 16 are miniscule. Kozlov is obviously very good with great results, but is he really going to make it with that physique? His dad doesn't have any size really either. Nike will push and shove and wildcard him like they did Young but at the end of the day, I'm not sure he's "special enough" to overcome his limited physical gifts. I think Stephan is 'maximizing' his game right now.

    DB on the other hand is a long ways back. But he does have a lot of potential based on his size and low hanging fruit that will come if he develops a more aggressive game and gets to start his points behind a 135 mph serve and can mature mentally....C'MON!!!

    Of course neither of these guys will probably 'make it' by TCFs definition (5 yrs top 75) just because so few do. But if I had to pick one or the other, I'd probably pick the lower guy who's ceiling is unknown versus the higher guy who seems to be close to his.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  8. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    grr, i can't help it - this is why i didn't become a lawyer - i would never have been able to stop arguing when a judge told me to

    not true, he won an ITF as far back as '09 (september - october in montreal), i'll make that point again

    in the final he beat krueger to death - 6-2,6-0

    if people weren't mentioning him in the same breath, they were dumb, or had an american bias

    short answer - yes
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  9. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    this is why i took the time to do actual research - subjective ideas like you thinking Isner was just a 4.0 with an untouchable serve as a junior are absolutely bogus

    instead of saying "i don't know their stories" you could do 30 seconds of research so your response could contribute to this board to some degree

    but since most are incapable of such middle school research, i'm here to help out

    career high combined itf rankings:
    isner - 93, querrey - 10 (as i posted previously)
    anderson - 28

    so yes, all clearly had some great junior results in reality-land, even though some in fantasy-speculation-land don't think so

    rant for the day over
     
  10. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    Schneider, if I'm not mistaken it was Kzoo 16s. Hardly predictive. I give both of them equal chance. Guess the number.
     
  11. BirdieLane

    BirdieLane New User

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    OK, c'mon. I'm ready to get jumped for diss'ing Koslov and daring to mention DB in same sentence and I might deserve it. But you can't deny that the professional game has a brutal physicality to it. Schnieder is a good junior player but no way would I back him over DB in the professional ranks.

    Put it this way:

    I might bet that Schnieder will be a better player that DB. But when you look at making it as a pro, Schnieder just has a physical ceiling that can't be overcome. DB has a mental harness on right now (mentally and tactically)...IF he matures, he could have a fighting chance - something Schnieder will never have because he's so small.

    It's that simple truth - you can't coach size (but you can coach/work on everything else)
     
  12. tball2day

    tball2day Semi-Pro

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    Frankly mikej, glad to see you and other keep it real on here. Clearly, you get the levels of tennis. The entire junior section was being hijacked by one, and besides being misleading (and annoying) I noticed a lot of quality posters have vacated their posts lately. Hopefully it can get back to being a helpful forum and not always go down the same path.
     
  13. BirdieLane

    BirdieLane New User

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    Apologize for lack of research and you make good points. But I'll counter the idea (another apology...) that a career high ITF of #93 achieved when you are 18 is not a great result. I suspect DB could accomplish this over the next few years. (And granted, this is still light yrs from being a professional)

    My assessment of Isner is definitely subjective, but it was based on watching him play in college, not juniors. His groundies and movement were very weak and he lost nearly every rally because he either couldn't move or couldn't make 3 in a row.

    He succeeds because of his serve alone. If he had a 115mph serve, none of us would have ever heard of him and he'd be in some 5.0 league right now.

    (And I actually like the guy! So I'm not trying to be mean...just stating the obvious)
     
  14. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    and i apologize for being a d!ck, thanks for taking it like a sport

    nothing personal, 90% of the posts on any internet forum aren't backed up by anything objective, it's not just you - i just saw the opportunity to make a point about how easy it is to check on these things
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  15. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    well, thanks man, appreciate it - on that note, TCF, come back when your mind is rested and ready to take on the masses again, you might have to take over for me someday soon haha
     
  16. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    well, i disagree about this massive importance on size...i think ferrer probably does too...size helps for serve, hurts for movement in a game that is becoming increasingly quick and dependent on explosive movement, and increases the chance of injuries during the grind to make it to the top

    but, with regard to schneider specifically

    yes, i think his chances are "better" than DB's based on his results, but i give both the same chance freak alludes to below, so not sure my "better" really means anything

    i have a better chance of becoming president than my dog, but don't go putting any money down on me in the 2024 election

     
  17. JLyon

    JLyon Hall of Fame

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    but yet he is Top 25 in the world, that's the point he uses what he was given a Huge Serve. No different than Ivanisevic, Agassi was given Godly like hand eye coordination, McEnroe was given the gift of touch at the net.
     
  18. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    I think it s safe to say that you get the prize for being the best Monday morning quarterback on these boards. You are good at researching and analyzing the numbers and rankings, and one has to give you credit for that.

    I d like you to make a prediction on a junior player and commit to it so we could see how your prediction will come to be. All the arguments you make are about the players that have achieved a certain level. You even sited Peliwo s win in 2009 of a low level ITF as a sign that he was going to be really good:) And even Isner s 93 ITF ranking is good enough to predict his bright future. Because we all know what he did since.

    Like I said, analyzing the events that passed are probably easier than testing your skills with a prediction that may or may not come to fruition.
     
  19. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    No, didn't say Peliwo's 2009 ITF win made him a solid bet to be really good (or to make your comment more specific to what we're talking about - to make it as a pro). We still don't know if he'll do that! One of the times I mentioned that win was to directly disprove misinformation you were spreading about his junior record (for those who care to look back a page). Nice try.

    No, Isner's 93 ITF ranking is not enough to predict a bright future, even a #1 ITF ranking is not good enough for that! That has been very clear in my postings. You can't say this specific highly ranked junior will make it as a pro - most even top 10 ITF juniors won't. What you can say is that the top pros will come from the top international juniors, collectively, with a few exceptions.

    As I said before, I'd bet on a guy like Kozlov if I had to, but even he has only marginal odds individually. If your best attack on me is that I can't predict the next top pro - you've got me.

    What I can say is that it's incredibly, incredibly unlikely that DB will be the next one - and that this idea that he has as good a shot as anyone is absolutely foolish and not based in reality or a reasonable knowledge of the different levels of competitive tennis.

    You are nowhere near my level intellectually - that's publicly apparent on these boards now - continuing to argue with me isn't working well for you. You should stop. I will try to as well so this board doesn't totally get sidetracked by us.
     
  20. coaching32yrs

    coaching32yrs Semi-Pro

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    I keep hearing about DB's 135 mph serve. I was at his US Open match. He does not have a big serve. It was nowhere near 125. Peliwo was on it no problem. A 4 star 18 year old can return his serve. I didn't see any weapons. He got the ball back. He hit a medium fast forehand. He was pretty consistent and his game plan was to wait for the other guy to make mistakes. He didn't play big man tennis. Schneider was fantastic. His ball striking is light years ahead of DB.His movement and footwork were really good. Am I betting on him becoming a pro- no. The odds are against him.
     
  21. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    I will take the prediction for you.

    Liam Broady for sure my top pick in this group -- 1994 (birth year)
    Luke Saville my other top pick -- 1994 (birth year)

    There are very few 1995s or 1996s to choose from yet.

    steve g tennis . com has a lot of info on this very subject. Juniors on tour
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 8, 2012
  22. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    I figured that at some point, you will resort to this level of argumentation and try, and i repeat TRY to make it personal. However, I have no feelings that someone like you can hurt! So you can TRY to make it personal, claim your intellectual supremacy on these boards and carry on with demagogic thinking.

    I could give it a go just for one post and try to stoop down to your "small" world! I am right about "small", aren t I? But I choose not to because other posters should not be subjected to witnessing this discourse on this thread. Airing out your own insecurities and "short"comings, camouflaged by bravado and aggressiveness is hardly what the posters are looking for on these boards.

    Like I stated before, for me this is not personal and I am sorry that you decided to choose that route. Don t feel obliged to have a comeback post that will be more witty or clever, or judging from your previous behavior, even more aggressive and ill intended.

    Pity that! You seem to have the ability to do some decent research work and from time to time come up with some useful information. I hope that you get to utilize these skills for your vocation.
     
  23. coaching32yrs

    coaching32yrs Semi-Pro

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    Tenniscp: I don't think many of the folks on this Board appreciate the level a 16 year old needs to have a realistic shot of a pro career. DB is just not in that class.
     
  24. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    I love the Roddick has 4.0 volleys (old argument), now it's Isner has 5.0 groundies, etc. talk. Really shows how little some know about the game.
     
  25. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    I never claimed that he is in that class. I ve seen enough juniors in my day to know when I see something special, but I have been wrong before and am not afraid to admit it.

    I would have never thought two years ago that Peliwo would dominate the last year of juniors the way he did in 2012. He was a clean ball striker but certainly not special. Yet this year he did what he did. It does not necessarily mean that his 2012 will propel him into ATP 100 over next couple of years. Few years ago, almost the same could have been said about Kudla and people were saying that he will never break top 100. Yet, he is on the brink of doing just that very soon.

    Again, not saying that DB will reach the necessary level to make money on the tour but he still has 4 years until he reaches 20. And although chances are small for him or any other junior to earn a good living, I still say that there could be some developments and improvements. If DB can t get out of the futures and lurks around 1000 ATP by the time he s twenty, then we can say that his limit has been reached and he s not likely to make any impact.
     
  26. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    Btw, coaching 32, I know you like Donaldson, as do I, but from US junior players that you have seen, who do you like and for what reason. Just picking your brain.
     
  27. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    Sumit Nagal he's a 1997 I believe from India I think trains in Canada. Very solid
     
  28. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    Fantastic - but do sticks and stones break your bones? (not a threat by the way, lest I be banned, just being a smartass)

    I'm always glad to have someone to inform me about what other posters are looking for. I once thought they were looking for Carmen Sandiego and started a lot of posts about her. It was quite embarrassing. Someone like you could have saved me from that incident.

    Cr@p, too late for that. Fortunately I didn't have to correct any of your misinformation or misrepresentation of my beliefs this time, since you stayed away from the subject of tennis entirely in your last post. That was a refreshing surprise.

    Thank you. Unfortunately, as you guessed, I am quite small. The only options open to me are being a jockey (and crawling through underground tunnels in search of groundhogs in the offseason - kind of like Carl Spackler, except I take my job much more seriously). But, you gotta do what you gotta do to pay the bills, satisfying vocation or not.
     
  29. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    Well, of course that's why we are talking about him in particular. The more central issue on this board is - can someone who seems driven both internally and externally (his dad) and may have the physical tools to be a top player rise up through the boys junior rankings at a later age instead of being the top of the 12's, 14's, and 16's? If he does that, can he actually become a pro tennis player?

    I say it is a possiblity, some say it is not a possibility at all. Certainly, there are valid arguments that it isn't a possiblity. I don't believe anyone except #1Coach is saying there is a good chance of it. DB has already overperformed expectations that TCF and others seemed to have of him. I believe the drive to be a top player can separate one from the pack. After that, you have to have the talent, both physically and mentally.
     
  30. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    I have seen him play. Pretty good junior player. Will probably stay on the smaller side, a steady defensive baseliner. Pretty formed physique for a 15 year old. I think he is done growing, may get a bit stronger. I did not see anything that separated him from the rest of his peers in any major way. I think 2013 will be a telling year for him.
     
  31. coaching32yrs

    coaching32yrs Semi-Pro

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    I think we are in a brief lull here CP. None of the 15-17 year old US boys jump off the page. Of course the finalists from 2 years ago - Kudla and Sock are a given. They will make it. Schneider is a beautiful player. Size a problem. Kozlov is a tennis Mozart. Normally his size and style of play don't translate to the pro game but I wouldn't bet against him. He's still so young and far away. He is the one I would watch.
     
  32. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    In total agreement on Kozlov. The kid is special, creative, daring, solid on both sides, plays loose, for now anyway. It just seems like he is not afraid to try shots, angles, chips and etc no matter what the score is and that brings poetry to his game. Justified concern about the size and strength, however, for his game, I think it will actually be counterproductive to beef up and get much stronger since it will probably take away from elasticity and fluidity of his game.

    Schnieder, a great junior competitor but I am afraid that s where the epithets end. His biggest weapon, competitiveness and mental fortitude as well as steady baseline game will fair well on the lower levels of futures, but i do not see him getting to the next level.

    So, I take it that the Rubins, McDonalds, Papas, Donaldsons and others do not impress you.
     
  33. coaching32yrs

    coaching32yrs Semi-Pro

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    Have not seen Papa. I have seen quite a bit of Kreuger as well. They all impress me. Whether they have the combination of weapons, consistency and athleticism to make it as a pro is another question. It may be there in some or all of them. I just have not seen it yet. I think the Steve Johnson route, college, is the right path for them.
     
  34. Number1Coach

    Number1Coach Banned

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    years back I watched Raonic get his butt handed to him by Klahn NCAA champ over at the Carson ITF ,wondered what Raonic was playing tennis for ?

    Do you thing Raonic should have gone to college and hang out with Klahn?
     
  35. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    He was #35 itf by the time he decided to go pro - so he fit the mold of the reasonable group that successful pros come from - as much as you repeatedly pretend he sucked as a junior

    Your son is nowhere near that level of junior tennis yet, keep dreaming
     
  36. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    steve g tennis has two sections, young guns, and young guns year end rankings. It pretty much spells everything out and while you are pretty much spot on. There is the random 1 in a million outlier. The one thing that is clear though, as you said Jr success is NOT a determining factor of pro success BUT most of the successful pro's had successful junior careers.

    It's like the trying to be an actor theory. Can't get auditions without a SAG card, can't get a SAG card without being in a show.

    Can't prove your worth in the pro's, because you didn't prove your worth in the Jr's. Can't prove your worth in the Jr's because you can never play the best Jr's consistently enough to prove your worth.
     
  37. tenniscp

    tenniscp Semi-Pro

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    You probably meant to ask that question of coach32? But I ll answer it all the same. I know for a fact that Raonic was recruited by UVA' s Brian Boland and was set to go there until the very last moment. I have not seen Raonic play at 17, so I m not going to pretend that I saw his great potential and predicted his bright future. That s too easy and something that others here do, appear to be nostradamuses post fact. Obviously now we know that Raonic chose the right path. But I would have been more impressed with you if you came on these boards after Klahn manhandled Raonic at the International Springs and predicted that it would be indeed Raonic and not Klahn who d go on to become a top 10 player.
     
  38. Number1Coach

    Number1Coach Banned

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    no meant it for you and wanted to point out that here is raonic being recruited hard no doubt and he went down a path all on this board would have disagreed with except you , sure you would have just raised and eyebrow and said lets see ! yet he had goals and a vision of what he was after and got it done , right now we at 16 have "every' school showing great interest yet I know there are 2 paths we will choose the right one .
     
  39. Number1Coach

    Number1Coach Banned

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    Great point but good ole mike says all that i have said about ex national champions would keep those schools from showing interest but once again he is wrong there according to emails we have received .

    I just laugh cause every one on here says there is No right way to build a tennis player , no guarantee you will get to become a high level pro No matter what you do BUT if you do the path we have chosen it wont work !
     
  40. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    Haha - you have tons of communication from d1 coaches, no doubt

    But no serious interest / offers from the top guys like Peter smith and boland, which is why you fell through when I took you up on your offer to forward proof of such

    Some coaches have the luxury of a fantastic pool of talent to choose from and don't need to deal with your mess of a family or spend years convincing DB to play tennis rather than complain about line calls - lucky them

    Then again maybe you'll prove me wrong and end up with a top few team - we shall see
     
  41. floridatennisdude

    floridatennisdude Hall of Fame

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    Yea, it's funny how people say there is"no right way" and then when you and DB openly explain your "way" everyone says its wrong. The irony. Keep pushing!
     
  42. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    Whether someone goes the Isner/Blake route or the Raonic/Querry route, in the end what matters is how well they can play tennis.
     
  43. Freak4tennis

    Freak4tennis Guest

    You need to read a book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

    In life as in tennis there is a continuing role of "chance". To be fooled by "chance" is a huge risk. Vegas makes tons of dough preying on the "fooled by chance" theory.

    In the case of Raonic he was making finals of futures by 17 1/2. Although his results were spotty (he lost to Jarmere Jenkins, Marcus Fugate) but he also took Malisse to a 6 & 6 loss. You've really got to judge the actual results & performance objectively.

    I'm not saying your player can't be a money making pro BUT don't be fooled by "chance" that's all. Let the results dictate direction.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2012
  44. justinmadison

    justinmadison Semi-Pro

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    I am not sure I understand the irony part. I am pretty sure everyone on the board believes there is “no right way” and they also believe there are “many wrong ways”. I don’t see this as ironic.

    The question being endlessly argued is if Number1’s is one of the right or wrong ways.
     
  45. Number1Coach

    Number1Coach Banned

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    Great question , I would then look at 'any' player like a stock and see if there is a continual climb, improvement , potential , if so then it's all about watching the progress .

    Most on here take uneducated and blinded guesses based on stats that do have some indication but are not facts or law , take TCF he based everything on video and hearsay never personal observation yet he was 100% convinced of the outcome even though the progress was outperforming his predictions over and over , will just have to see what happens .
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2012
  46. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

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    haha, I realize that most of the "stats" you post on here are utter bs like your son's unforced errors / winners vs peliwo that i called you out on, or an incorrect round that raonic made it to in carson back in the day before you were corrected on that

    but most of the time, when intelligent people post real stats that they have taken a little time to research and/or consider the reliability of, they are actual facts

    you son's ITF ranking is a fact, not some fake stat someone pulled out of a hat

    your son having zero gold balls and zero ITF tournament titles is a fact, not an opinion - unless my research betrays me - but i think you would have corrected that by now if it were misinformation
     
  47. coaching32yrs

    coaching32yrs Semi-Pro

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    It's a reality check for all tennis players and parents out there. If a player has no significant wins by age 16+ there is zero chance of going pro. If his/her best win is against #9 and has multiple recent losses to players in the 70s, 80s and 90s that means no shot. Doesn't matter what I say, you say, parent says, coaches say. The record speaks for itself.
     
  48. Number1Coach

    Number1Coach Banned

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    Here is the scary reality on stats if you go to 1 of the 200 or so colleges to play tennis D1 -D3 heres what you have 2 players Isner and Anderson both taller then 6'8 who have done anything significant in the last 15 years coming out of college ,, Now lets see 200 teams x 6 to 8 players over 15 years = a tennis pro career death sentence yeah ?

    Now lets look at the last 15 years of kids in the top 100 itf = 1500 top 100 players and how many have made top 20 ATP? better odds but more fail here as a successful jr. then make it .

    So both paths have horrible odds so any route you take is a crapp shoot but the 1 common thread all have that made it focused on development not results !!!

    Coaching 32 results mean nothing you should focus on developing your players !
     
  49. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2004
    Messages:
    4,856
    #1. You've been around here long enough to not need this board anymore. I know you enjoy the banter. Focus your energy on maximizing D's game and progres, let it play out and speak for itself. It will.
     
  50. Soianka

    Soianka Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2009
    Messages:
    1,905
    I agree.

    ........
     

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