Match Stats/Report - Ivanisevic vs Rafter, Wimbledon final, 2001

[Waspsting]

Goran Ivanisevic beat Pat Rafter 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 2-6, 9-7 in the Wimbledon final, 2001 on grass

It was Ivanisevic’s only Slam title, his fourth final at the event and he was playing as a wild card. Rafter had been runner-up the previous year as well

Ivanisevic won 154 points, Rafter 150

Both players serve-volleyed off all serves, with the exception of 1 Rafter second serve

Serve Stats
Ivanisevic...
- 1st serve percentage (91/164) 55%
- 1st serve points won (74/91) 81%
- 2nd serve points won (37/73) 51%
- Aces 27 (2 second serves), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 16
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (74/164) 45%

Rafter...
- 1st serve percentage (88/140) 63%
- 1st serve points won (68/88) 77%
- 2nd serve points won (29/52) 56%
- Aces 13, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (57/140) 41%

Serve Patterns
Ivanisevic served...
- to FH 34%
- to BH 59%
- to Body 7%

Rafter served...
- to FH 43%
- to BH 51%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Ivanisevic made...
- 79 (35 FH, 44 BH)
- 11 Winners (5 FH, 6 BH)
- 43 Errors, comprising...
- 1 Unforced (1 FH)
- 42 Forced (16 FH, 26 BH)
- Return Rate (79/136) 58%

Rafter made...
- 74 (26 FH, 48 BH), including 1 return-approach
- 7 Winners (3 FH, 4 BH)
- 46 Errors, all forced...
- 46 Forced (16 FH, 30 BH)
- Return Rate (74/148) 50%

Break Points
Ivanisevic 3/6 (3 games)
Rafter 3/6 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Ivanisevic 42 (11 FH, 11 BH, 6 FHV, 6 BHV, 7 OH, 1 BHOH)
Rafter 49 (11 FH, 9 BH, 13 FHV, 13 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 2 OH)

Ivanisevic had 22 from serve-volley points
- 11 first 'volleys' (5 FHV, 3 BHV, 1 OH, 2 FH at net)
- 11 second volleys (1 FHV, 3 BHV, 6 OH, 1 BHOH)

- 20 passes - 11 returns (5 FH, 6 BH) & 9 regular (4 FH, 5 BH)
- FH returns - 2 cc, 1 dtl, 1 inside-out
- BH returns - 3 cc, 1 dtl, 2 inside-out (1 left by Rafter)
- regular FHs - 2 cc/inside-in, 2 dtl
- regular BHs - 3 cc, 1 dtl, 1 lob

Rafter had 27 from serve-volley points
- 19 first 'volleys' (9 FHV, 7 BHV, 1 BH1/2V, 1 OH, 1 FH at net)... the BH1/2V was a net chord roll over
- 8 second volley (3 FHV, 4 BHV, 1 OH)

- 1 from a return-approach point, 1 swinging BHV pass

- 21 passes - 7 returns (3 FH, 4 BH) & 14 regular (7 FH, 5 BH, 2 BHV)
- FH returns - 2 cc, 1 inside-in
- BH returns - 2 cc, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- regular FHs - 1 cc, 3 dtl, 1 inside-out/longline, 1 lob, 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl at net
- regular BHs - 1 longline/cc, 1 longline/inside-out, 2 lobs, 1 running-down-drop-shot cc at net
- BHVs - 1 was a non-net shot, 1 was the return-approach point

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Ivanisevic 28
- 12 Unforced (1 FH, 2 BH, 8 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH at net, 1 BH at net & 1 BH pass attempt
- 16 Forced (2 FH, 9 BH, 1 FHV, 1 FH1/2V, 3 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & 1 baseline BHV (a pass attempt)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 55

Rafter 34
- 5 Unforced (1 FH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 FH at net
- 29 Forced (3 FH, 9 BH, 5 FHV, 4 FH1/2V, 8 BHV)... with 1 FHV pass attempt (net shot) & 1 baseline BHV lob
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 56

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Ivanisevic was...
- 85/125 (68%) at net, including...
- 83/120 (69%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 48/65 (74%) off 1st serve and...
- 35/55 (64%) off 2nd serve
---
- 1/2 forced back

Rafter was...
- 88/129 (68%) at net, including...
- 82/121 (68%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 54/74 (73%) off 1st serve and...
- 28/47 (60%) off 2nd serve
---
- 1/1 return-approaching

Match Report
Great match in all ways. Quality of play is high from start to stop, the deciding set is the longest and stays on serve for the lengthiest time, making things tense. Two players are very evenly matched virtually throughout and even more so overall. Both serve-volley all the time (only exception is a Rafter second serve, that draws a return error), with different emphasis’. Ivanisevic the more powerful server, Rafter the better volleyer - along expected lines

Even the crowd are excellent - loud as a football gang, but cheering for both players, excited about the tennis, not for or against either player. They even get quiet at just the right time as the players are about to serve - and mostly, stay that way. Lot of Aussie colours, flags and toy kangaroos about, but the loudest chants are “Goran, Goran”. Start of match features crowd roars such that you’d think there was a 5th set tiebreak going on

The court being slower than Wimbledon’s norm is most apparent with good slice serves out wide. They don’t skid as much as they typically do, and if returner can get a full-face racquet on the ball on the stretch without swinging, decent chances of redirecting the angle for cc winner. In other Wimbledons, serves like that usually scoot through low and are more likely to be hit into the ground than go for winners. Its still very much grass though and passes are made between knee and hip height

Both players serve-volley all the time, Goran the stronger server, Rafter the better volleyer. How evenly matched they are is best captured by break point numbers -
- both 3/6 (Goran having them in 3 games, Rafter 4)

Goran winning 4 more points, while serving 24 more or in percentage form, Goran winning 50.66% while serving 53.94% of the points

No telling who won the match from that. If one had to guess, Rafter would be the better pick

Basic stats -
1st serve in - Goran 55%, Rafter 63%
1st serve won - Goran 81%, Rafter 77%
2nd serve won - Goran 51%, Rafter 56%

No telling form that either, and again, Rafter would be better guess. In context of match-up (specifically, Goran’s overwheling first serve) Goran’s slim lead in first serve points won is a relative win for Rafter. 2nd serves points are where Goran can show a hint of a chink - and 51% points won is low enough to be vulnerable (and 55% in count not so high as to safely cover it up)

Goran with double the aces (27 to 13), but also 4 times the double faults (16 to 4), makes the serve-volley part of things even closer

1st serve-volley won - Goran 74%, Rafter 73%
2nd serve-volley won - Goran 64%, Rafter 60%

In light of Goran’s very high double fault count, those numbers are saying Rafter’s almost down to hoping Goran double faults to get a break. Goran’s serve, frightening as it is to think, is actually a smartly toned down version of what it used to be, but is still the biggest weapon out there

In years gone by, he’d send down virtually every serve looking for an ace, regularly second serves among them. He’s toned that down here, and sends down even first serves that are relatively returnable. In other words, he’s trusting his volley more than in years gone by. Not necessarily a good thing - wouldn’t have surprised anyone to see him messing up routine volleys to lose bulk of points - but it proves justified. 64% second serve-volley points won - better than Rafter’s very good 60% - is a win for Goran, while negligible 1% lead in first serve-volley points won isn’t a loss (assuming correctly big lot of aces pad up overall first serve points won to a healthier advantage). Big lot of double faults pulling his overall second serve points down to significantly lower than Rafter’s wouldn’t have been as safe an assumption and even less so given the more balanced approach to serving

Comparing Goran’s ace/service winner and double fault frequency with his other finals -

here - ace 30% off first serves, double fault 22% of seconds
1998 - ace 33%, double 26%
1994 - ace 38%, double 15%
1992 - ace 39%, double 10%

‘98 was a an all out serve-bot showing and match of parts, where he volleyed poorly (and his serve was such he had little room to volley well). This isn’t. In that light, he’s actually served badly by his standard, as far as double faults go. The ‘low’ ace rate isn’t as important because of the smart serving - getting big serves likely to go unreturned or yield an easy putaway volley in place of ace-or-miss stuff in other years

Numbers also hint at the slower surface. Another indicator is Rafter not looking like he might have the racquet knocked out of his hand while returning, as Pete Sampras sometimes did in his matches against Goran

That’s Goran - ‘returner not looking like he might have racquet knocked out of his hand’ = toned down serving. It has potential to be a move that makes him a better player overall - still getting lots of freebies (just fewer aces), but with higher in-count and thus fewer double faults or what passes for chances for returner. It hasn’t worked out that way because his rate of double faulting is very high. He’s in danger of breaking himself. Comes dangerously close to it when serving out the match - dishing out 2 + a very risky ace on the line

 

[Waspsting]

Rafter’s game is more classical (i.e. not big serve dependent). Good first serve at pushing very-good 63% in count. Very few double faults at 4. And beautiful as well as high quality volleying behind it all - he punches them to corners, he drops them dead, he angles them away sharply… all the finishing specials done splendidly

On return, Rafter does what he can - a strategy everybody is reduced to against Goran. Not too many difficult volleys for Goran to face, so Rafter’s chances of a break hinge on double faults and Goran making a mess of routine volleys

Goran by contrast, is able to get meaty returns off more often, with emphasis of going wide more than low. His prospects of breaking are more in his hands - there’s possibility of aggressively scoring with wide returns/passes, and its necessary since Rafter is less likely to make a mess of routine volleys

That’s key difference between two players. And so it plays out

‘Volley’ UEs - Goran 11, Rafter 5
‘Volley’ FEs - Goran 4, Rafter 15

… with winners about the same and both players winning 68% net points. In that sense, despite toned down adjustments to his game, the standard Goran narrative still runs: Can Goran break Rafter (with strong passes and returns) more often than Goran breaks Goran (with double faults and missing easy volleys)?

Answer to that, as indicated by break point numbers is he does both in equal measure. So things come down to timing and for once Goran holds it together. Having lost 4 games on the trot to lose the 4th set and down 15-30 in his first service game of the fifth has deja vu written all over it for one of the chokiest of players - but he steels himself through to maintaining his service game standard. And ultimately, a cluster of strong passes/returns peak their head before double faults and missing regulation volleys does - game, set, match, and overdue title

Back to the volleying. UEs - Goran 11, Rafter 5

For Goran, 11 UEs in such a long match isn’t too much. FHV is the shakey one and he’s got 8 on that side (more than the 6 winners), but BHV is a-ok with just 1 - fantastic consistency for such a long match. Couple of misjudged groundstrokes at net make up the rest - a normal problem for him (and more broadly, servers of his calibre). Not bad from Goran and his consistency doesn’t affect his finishing, which is as good as can be asked for, shy of top drawer. Putsaway the putaways and puts the net high volley to corners without missing too much - fine job

5 for Rafter is stupendous. It happens that a particularly graceful volleyer makes a lot of errors, which get overlooked because his winners look so smooth. Not here. Rafter’s combo of looking smooth and having variety on the finish is hard to beat (and 1 of his UEs come in a return game, a bad miss but at least its not going to get him broken), but he’s barely missed anything either. Top marks to Rafer on the regulation volley - the finishing, the consistency and even the aesthetics and variety

'Volley' FEs - Goran 4, Rafter 15

In direction of how many tough volleys are faced with Rafter returning however he can vs Goran more regularly getting powerful or/and wide returns off organically flowing out of difference in quality of serves, but Goran’s getting better of this. He faces fewer tough volleys, but not 1:4 fewer

Overwhelming serve or not, over 5 sets, there’s bound to be tough volleys to make. Goran keeping his FEs down to 4 is excellent. Most of his tough ones are low, to the feet ones. Almost never of the bullet type. Not facing the toughest of returns and passes, but facing a lot more than 4 so making the bulk. And not leaving easy follow-up passes either - very good stuff from Goran

Rafter faces difficult volleys more often and more of his are due to ball being wide rather than low. Also tends to be harder hit than the ones Goran faces. He faces more and tougher volleys so his missing more is not surprising. Question is, how much more falls under acceptable from Rafter’s point of view

Whatever it is, 15 is bordering on being over it. His 15 FEs aren’t of the impossible type, but obviously, are difficult. He’s about as likely as not to miss the kind of tougher volleys he faces. Not a blackmark, but its possible to do better and given disparity of serves, a critical area for Rafter. How many tough volleys can he make? If he can make enough, his consistency advantage on the regulation stuff should give him a net advantage at net. If he can’t make enough, than no. Asking a lot to make ‘tough’ volleys by definition, the kind of things Wimbledon champions need to do. He doesn’t quite pass the stiff test

 

[Waspsting]

Gist -
Finishing on the volley - excellent from both, Rafter better
Handling routine volleys - both deal very well in attacking them, Rafter exemplary of consistency, Goran considerably less so though not to blackmark degree
Handling tough volley - Goran playing above himself here to how well he does, Rafter doing less than he’s capable of, though not to black mark degree

All that flowing out of serve-return complex where -
- Goran much bigger serve, but at least human standard (as opposed to some of his showing in years gone by), getting more freebies, drawing more weak returns… and double faulting a lot more. Rafter, a good, strongly solid serve

- In line with relative serve strength, Goran able to get more strong returns off. Again, a little more sober than he used to be. Getting passes and returns wide more than low is his big weapon and he hits with lusty power. Rafter doing what he can… the occasional low return the best he can whip up

Advantage would be Goran’s if not for the spate of double faults that’s not justified by how much he goes for on second serves. With double faults, its Rafter that slips ahead (as in, looks more likely to break or win return points)

Beyond that is ‘choking’, ‘clutching’ or just plain roll of the dice. Nothing overtly clutchy or chokey going on - so its just fortune that determines the outcome. Taking into account the players on show, one might credit Goran for not choking or at least, be surprised by it

Match Progression
Goran breaks early for 2-0 lead - a great game of powerful returns and Rafter making half-volleys. It’s a 12 point game and Goran has 3 passing winners (FH dtl, BH dtl and on break point FH dtl return against a first serve), forces 2 ‘volley’ errors, and gives Rafter a couple other shoelace ‘volleys’ to make (‘volleys’ means volleys or half-volleys at net)

Clinical, serve-volley play makes up rest of set. Rafter takes Goran to deuce near the end, with Goran missing an easy FHV and double faulting. He comes away with the hold from deuce, making a difficult first volley before taking the game with a second volley smash

Second set is mirror image, with Rafter breaking for 2-0 lead and nursing the break to the end. Couple of double faults from Goran and couple of pass winners from Rafter (a BH cc return to a second serve nicely in the slot for it, and a forward running FH cc after drawing a half-volley with the return)

Double faults and easy FHV misses put Goran in the hole again late in the set and he saves 2 break points to hold for 3-5 and force Rafter to serve it out. Which he does to love with 4 unreturned serves

Great game to break in set 3 by Goran, forcing 2 ‘volley’ errors and striking 2 BH return-pass winners (cc and inside-out). Rafter unwisely leaves the latter on break point from a fended return that lands just in

Another good return game from Goran awhile later that Rafter’s a little lucky to hold. Down 15-30, his BH1/2V dribbles over the net for a winner. He takes Goran to deuce on the serve-out with 3 passing winners in 4 points (BH inside-in return, non-net BHV close to service line and running FH dtl), but unreturned serves see Goran over the line

Goran has chances, good looks at returns early in fourth set, but just misses them from 15-30 as Rafter holds for 2-1. From 2-2, Rafter reels off the next 4 games

More a poor game from Goran (2 double faults - including on break point, 2 volley UEs) than a good one from Rafter gets the first break, more a good game from Rafter (2 ‘volley’ FEs and on break point, a clever series of short, wide passes leading to a running-down-drop-shot at net pass winner) gets the second

Quality remains high in the decider. Goran’s down 15-30 in his first service game, 2 points away from losing 6 games in a row. Strong serves see him through

At 4-4,Goran has 0-30 with 2 BH return pass winners (stretched out dtl that drops in and a strong inside-out). After Rafter levels the game, Goran has a decent look at a pass that he misses to go down 40-30 before Rafter holds

Another scare for Rafter in holding for 6-5. Makes 1/8 first serves and double faults once, but comes away without facing break point, finishing with a reflex second volley FHV winner

Its Rafter’s turn next. Goran’s down 0-30, 2 points away from losing the match serving at 6-7. Only a good, difficult volley keeps it from being 0-40 and Rafter just misses the return winner point after that. Lovely FH lob winner from Rafter later in the game, but Goran serves his way to 7-7

Excellent game gets the decisive break. Rafter with 1/5 first serves helps and he’s a little off line with attempted body serves. Still, perfect movement by Goran to step away and give himself room to powerful smack the returns. He forces 2 BHV errors (1 wide, 1 low) and delivers consecutive FH return pass winners (cc against a wide serve and inside-out against a sit-up serve) to break

It’s a tense serve-out. Mishit return on first point is probably going out, but its too close to call and Goran wisely rushes over to play the ball. He’s there in good time, but misses. A double fault puts him down 15-30, with a second serve to follow

Ace on the T

Couple more double faults keep the game going and not putting away a ball there to be putaway leaves Rafter a not-good look on a pass that he misses. 1 more beautiful touch from Rafter as he delivers a BH lob winner to pull things back to deuce once more

Goran finishes with 2 unreturned second serves - both hefty serves, the first wide on top of that

Summing up, great match, 5 sets of all out serve-volleying with the quality of action never dipping below excellent and both players at their best

Ivanisevic has the bigger, more powerful serve, but is prone to double faulting considerably
Rafter has the better volley to routine balls - his finishing is immaculate and varied and he barely misses

Difference in serve strength allows Ivanisevic to get off challenging, powerful returns more often than Rafter, but along with his double faulting troubles, he’s also more prone to missing the routine volley, though his finishing on what he makes is excellent too

Chances for Rafter to break center around his opponent double faulting and missing routine volleys
Chances for Ivanisevic to break center around hitting winning returns and passes

Ivanisevic is very secure on the difficult volley (while facing fewer of them because his serve makes it harder for Rafter to return-pass as strongly), while Rafter has room for improvement in the same area

It all comes out virtually even and the result that could go either ends up way falling Ivanisevic’s way

Stats for Rafter’s semi-final with Andre Agassi - Duel Match Stats/Report - Rafter vs Agassi, Wimbledon semi-finals, 2000 & 2001 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
Stats for fourth round match between Roger Federer and Pete Sampras - Match Stats/Report - Federer vs Sampras, Wimbledon fourth round, 2001 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[jrepac]

This was a great match....I didn't know who to root for...the perennial bridesmaid, Goran, or the young gun Rafter? I really liked Pat too....but I was happy to see Goran win at last. I figured Pat would get one at some point....was not to be