Murray/Djoko/Rafa at 30+

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by syc23, Oct 25, 2012.

  1. syc23

    syc23 Professional

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    Maybe one of those fun threads to resurrect in 5 years time :) Now we're seeing the (inevitable) decline of Federer, who still amazes at 31 with his game and longevity one wonders how other members of the top 4 will fare when they reach their 30s.

    I'd love to see all 3 play into their 30s and see if their game can still stand up to the next generation in the way Federer is still doing today.

    Out of the 3, Rafa is most likely going to retire first if his knees don't give in. Murray's back will most likely be his worst enemy much like Agassi's but Nole seems to be the one who I think can decide when to hang up his racquet if tennis gets too boring for him - not much bothers him physically (yet).

    Roger has evolved his game through time as he no longer can slug it out with the power players, will the other 3 alter their game to extend their careers? Out of the 3, Andy has such good hands that surely he could venture into the net more as I don't think he will be able to amaze with his incredible defense forever.

    It is sad that we face the prospect of these 4 not at the forefront of tennis at some point in the future. Kind of similar when Jordan, Pippen, Bird & Magic has disappeared leaving the NBA in a much poorer state. Great players will emerge for sure, but will we be looking at the current 4 with the same nostalgia as I can't see any light at the end of the tunnel when these guys are gone for good?
     
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  2. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    - They are all pretty defensive.
    - They're raw speed is a major weapon for all three
    - They don't have a serve like Federer to bail them out
    - They are physical specimen, throughout the years usually physical ability increases from generation to generation (better fitness, nutrition, etc.)
    - They are not as unique talents as Federer is (apart from Nadal on clay)
    - Some (Nadal) already have more physical issues than Federer

    For these reasons, I think they will all be out of the top 5 by their 31st birthday, with maybe 1 slam between the three of them thereafter.
     
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  3. AnotherTennisProdigy

    AnotherTennisProdigy Professional

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    Nadal: I would be genuinely surprised if he ever wins a slam in his thirties. He's 26 and he's already having problems.

    Djokovic: Not sure yet. He has a physical game, but it will be much more easier for him to adapt to his age like Federer. This is an option Nadal does not have.

    Murray: Probably the one that's going to age the best. I predict Murray to be one of those late bloomers that has a lot of success in the latter years of his career. Not to the same extent as Agassi, but similar.
     
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  4. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Don't know about Murray or Novak but Nadal will definitely be playing as good as ever, even better given how much his tactical mind is bound to evolve and how much more experienced he will be.

    That doesn't of course automatically mean he'll have as much success as before, the competition might just suddenly get too strong to offset numerous improvements Nadal will undoubtedly make in his game.
     
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  5. Desertman

    Desertman Semi-Pro

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    I'm sorry, but you're saying that Nadal has a tactical mind? His style of play is brute for with very little room left for tactics. If any of the three have the tactical game to outfox younger opponents when they're getting on a bit it is Murray.

    Nadal is already suffering from "terminal" knee problems. Djokovic would have been a good candidate to crumble up and slip back given his penchant for ducking out of difficult matches a few years ago but he is a different player now and I see him lasting quite well. But I do think Murray, with his tactical prowess already established and his retun game like Agassi's, who will fare the best into his 30s.

    All of this barring any unforseen major injury for Djokovic or Murray.
     
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  6. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal will probably start to peak just as Federer is now.
     
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  7. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    It depends not only on them but on the field. If the field stays as weak as it is now outside that trio (Federer will be retired by then) they could do extremely well and still win slams. In the quite likely event Federer is retired and Nadal's body is broken down and quite likely also retired by then, Djokovic and Murray could do very well at 31 if the up and comers continue to be dire.
     
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  8. underground

    underground Legend

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    This should actually be a prediction thread, and someone needs to dig this up after 5 years.

    My prediction:

    Rafa - career ended on 28th June 2012, on 28th June 2016 I will celebrate my birthday as well as the 4 year anniversary of Nadal's retirement.

    Djokovic - Floater around 20-30 in the rankings.

    Murray - Pathetic behaviour makes him kick a linesman at Queen's club, however avoided a fine since he is British. He will be Tim Henman by then, still lots of hope but disappointing at the end. Regular 10-20 floater.

    :evil:
     
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  9. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    You'll have to remind us tho'. 2016 IS A LONG WAY. You or me might be 'underground' by then :twisted:
     
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  10. BauerAlmeida

    BauerAlmeida Semi-Pro

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    Djokovic will be the one with most succes in his 30s as he doesn't need so much his speed and movement as Murray and Nadal. He can play very aggressively unlike the other 2.

    Murray will probably age better than Nadal considering Nadal's mileage.
     
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  11. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    [​IMG]
     
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  12. SQA333

    SQA333 Professional

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    Nadal would be on the poker stars world tour at 30.
     
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  13. oy vey

    oy vey Semi-Pro

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    His back, his quad, his hamstring, his ankle, his deformed knee, et etc
     
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  14. Netspirit

    Netspirit Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic will be winning slams well into his late 20s.

    Nadal will retire within the next 2 years.

    Murray will have Ferrer+ career - maybe a slam or two more, always strong, always a threat, but nothing to write home about.
     
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  15. TopFH

    TopFH Hall of Fame

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    Any slam is worth writing home about.
     
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  16. BrooklynNY

    BrooklynNY Hall of Fame

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    With Nadal's insane lefty hook, I wouldn't mind seeing him serve and volley on the ad court.

    Right now he just runs around and lines up a forehand, which I suppose would still be a viable strategy for him at 30+, but he would have to look to play 1-2 punch tennis off that shot.

    If Nadal would actually develop an approach/transition game, and not just putting balls away at net on points he won using his forehand, he can easily extend his career and keep opponents guessing more.

    I don't think Nadal is done by any means. As much as he claims injury we've yet to see him really show any noticeable injury on court...i.e I don't see him limping around or visibly hindered.

    Then again, if he was in that state, he would likely just not play the match
     
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  17. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    The only player with the ability to win a slam without dropping a set in his 30s is Nadal. He won 2012 Roland Garros with painkillers and only dropped one set. From 2013 onwards he said he's playing less hardcourt events and will be far better physically therefore (most likely with the omission of Indian Wells and/or Miami).

    In fact, Nadal said the new rule is to only play when he's 100% - hence his withdrawal from the Olympics and US Open. That allows him to withdraw from any hardcourt event he wants because less than 100% means a legit physical problem. The 100% rule. No 'bandaid solutions' from now on, as Uncle Toni said.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2012
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  18. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    You're crazy if you think Nadal is winning the French Open past 28.
     
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  19. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    I think another interesting question would be: Will the calibre of players a 30+ Djokovic/Nadal/Murray faces be anything near the calibre of players Federer is hanging with at the moment? I think the answer will most like be a resounding NO.
     
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  20. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    I don't think any of them(Murray, Djokovic or Nadal) will still be active by 31, the age Roger is now.
     
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  21. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal: Retired.

    Djokovic: Fallen out of the top five, but still an active member of the top ten.

    Murray: Has a Djokovic run and captures #1 for a while, but afterwards sinks back in the rankings. Would be ranked around #15-30 at age 31.
     
    #21
  22. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    Nadal
    16 GS.
    At age 30 Nadal wins his final RG title winning his last matches while enduring much pain. He is forced to skip Wimbledon in order to bear the flag for Spain at Rios, an honor he considers above all other accomplishments. He ends up earning a silver losing to the RG16 finalist who he beat months earlier.

    Federer
    18GS.
    Federer's final GS comes in 2014 however his love for the game keeps him playing until the end of the 2016 season. By 2016 he is At Rio2016 Olympics he comes up short in the singles, but his cool nerves awesome netplay and years of experience carry him and his doubles partner a young upstart new Swiss player ranked in the 30s to the bronze medal. Federer retires after USO16 after falling in the qtr finals.

    Murray
    7-8 GS.
    Plagued by injury Murray is force to take extended recovery periods yet still obtains 7-8 slams. Obtains 2 Wimbledons.


    Djokovic
    12 GS.
    Retires at 32. Claims 2 RG. Takes up great interest in politics in Serbia though doesn't run for any official positions instead becoming becomes a civilian kingmaker endorsing/sponsoring/fundraising certain presidential/primeminister candidates, though not entering in any races to be presidential/primeminister himself. Instead as his younger brothers approach age 30 one of them enters politics.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2012
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  23. Ms Nadal

    Ms Nadal Semi-Pro

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    Exactly, we never knew that Rosol match would have been Rafa's swan song. I think Rosol did Rafa a favour. He made Rafa realise how much he hates tennis and that he has to get out of it. Thank you, Rosol.
     
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  24. Desertman

    Desertman Semi-Pro

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    The real question here is that unless someone steps up to the plate and takes over, the men's game is going to look seriously poor in 5 to 10 years from now once the current big 4 retire.
     
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  25. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

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    QFT. As long as Nadal's Arm remains Strong , he will not stop winning slams.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
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  26. syc23

    syc23 Professional

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    Agree.

    I hope the top 4 remain in the game for as long as their bodies allow them to as I honestly can't see anyone bring as much excitement, consistency and dominance these guys show over everyone else.
     
    #26
  27. Zarfot Z

    Zarfot Z Semi-Pro

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    I agree that it is a sad thought OP - what is tennis without the likes of the Big 4? But regardless, I'm sure Djokovic and Murray will still have a while to go after Federer and Nadal are retired.
     
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  28. prosealster

    prosealster Professional

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    This is the best post of the thread
     
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  29. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    The real question, of course, is, in 5 years time, will their bodies still hold up with their physical game, or will they have deteriorated enough that they won't be able to compete with a 36-year old Federer and Nadal will end up with a losing h2h against him? ;)
     
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  30. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

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    Murray might still be a pretty good player, probably top 10. Nadal will be retired. Djokovic may still be playing, but he won't be ranked as high as Murray IMHO.
     
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  31. underground

    underground Legend

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    I would laugh my a** off so much if that person is Federer.
     
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  32. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    Federer at Wimbledon has NEVER been as good as Nadal is at Roland Garros. Not even close. Grass didn't come naturally to Federer - that's why he lost in the 1st Round of Wimbledon 3 times. Whereas no play has been more destined for surface domination than Nadal at Roland Garros.

    Roland Garros will always be easy pickings for Nadal. Nadal is playing a lot smarter now than he ever has before, and that is why he only dropped one set at Roland Garros this year despite relying on painkillers to take the court. Now with a reduced hardcourt schedule Nadal will not drop a set at Roland Garros.

    Given that we are about to enter the weakest claycourt era in history (where Raonic and Tomic are the big guns - both are hopeless on clay), there is a good chance Nadal will not drop a set at Roland Garros at age 32.
     
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  33. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    What makes you say that?
     
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  34. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    Nadal is the only player in the top 4 that doesn't get back injuries. Back injuries cause retirement far more than knee tendinitis.

    Actually, who has retired due to knee tendinitis? Venus and Serena have had knee tendinitis their entire careers (and they also have had wrist tendinitis). I think Nadal mentioned this recently. He said "nobody has ever retired with what I have".
     
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  35. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    If he doesn't retire, eventually he will stop being an important factor in the game. I guess the same could be said for Djokovic and Murray though.
     
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  36. Tony48

    Tony48 Legend

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    EDIT: n/m...
     
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  37. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Agreed Nadal can easily win 5-7 more RG titles.
     
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  38. RCizzle65

    RCizzle65 Hall of Fame

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    Nadal has the most physical game out of all three, and as that decreases with age, I see him being the least successful out of those three. I think it's a toss up between Djokovic and Murray though for success in the 30's, they both can play aggressive but get into extended rallies when needed and is what usually pulls them through tight matches. I think Murray has the better serve though (and certainly much better hands at the net) and can edge out Djokovic in their 30's.
     
    #38
  39. Zarfot Z

    Zarfot Z Semi-Pro

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    Yeah, I bet Nadal would be more than willing to trade his knees for Federer's back
     
    #39
  40. Zarfot Z

    Zarfot Z Semi-Pro

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    Agreed. ******* can easily win 20-30 RGs.
     
    #40
  41. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owen_Hargreaves
     
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  42. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Guys, look at David Ferrer! He is thirty years old and is still in the top 5 with his style of play. Why do you think that Nadal, Murray and Djokovic will not be??? :confused:
     
    #42
  43. RAFA2005RG

    RAFA2005RG Banned

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    Well, Djokovic and Murray never OWNED a surface. Nadal has owned clay more than any man has ever owned a surface. Hardly a proper comparison. You'll have a lot more wrinkles by the time Nadal isn't important to clay.
     
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  44. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

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    Ferrer is not exactly an accurate comparison. I respect him for seemingly getting better with age, but the top 4 have a lot more mileage on their bodies than Ferrer. Everybody has a different prime. I don't see Nadal especially being top 5 at 30+ if he's still playing, and the expectations for Nadal are higher than they are for Ferrer.
     
    #44
  45. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic owns the Australian Open, Murray could own Wimbledon after Federer's gone.
     
    #45
  46. oy vey

    oy vey Semi-Pro

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    i don't know. He wants to get a linguistics degree and his GF is going to study law. They are young, talented, rich, smart and beautiful. The world is their oyster.
     
    #46
  47. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    Made a typo I meant to write, "though not* enter politics himself".

    Takes up great interest in politics in Serbia though doesn't run for any official positions instead becoming becomes a civilian kingmaker endorsing/sponsoring/fundraising certain presidential/primeminister candidates, though not entering in any races to be presidential/primeminister himself. Instead as his younger brothers approach age 30 one of them enters politics.
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2012
    #47
  48. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Ferrer won't be hanging on much longer, he also wasn't ranked top five eight to ten years ago, like Federer was. More milage.
     
    #48
  49. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    I kinda disagree, they've come out with breakthroughs in the past 20 years so he will still be top 8 in 2 years.
     
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