Murray has a good chance to become #1 next year

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by papertank, Dec 2, 2012.

  1. papertank

    papertank Hall of Fame

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    Murray had a pretty bad first half of the year this year. Besides the semis of the AO and the Miami final, he did hardly anything. Bad showing at IW, awful clay season. On the other hand, he did very well in the second half of the year. He has a perfect window of opportunity to take the #1 ranking, at least for a few weeks, in the first half of next year. If he can win either the AO or Wimbledon, he will have points for 2 slams as well as the Olympic gold. Combine that with better showings at the first few Masters and there is hardly any way he can't be #1.
     
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  2. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    I'm sure he will achieve the #1 ranking next year some time, probably during May, I'd say.
     
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  3. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Murray won't be ranked first even if he ties his career-best results in most of the tournaments. Why? Cause at best he'll be even with Djokovic on hard courts (talking about ranking points here/results) but fall behind on clay.

    Or let's give it a second look. Murray is currently at 8000 points, Djokovic at almost 13000 which is a 5.000 difference. How on earth is Murray going to make up so much ground?
     
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  4. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I doubt it. I think Cvac is going to pick up a lot of the points he dropped this year again. Especially during clay season.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2012
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  5. The Bawss

    The Bawss Banned

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    Oh my god the crazy started early for next season.
     
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  6. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    There's the concept of 'swing' mate. Let's say Murray wins the AO (he won't IMO but let's imagine he does), beating Noel in the semis. That 5000 point gap is down to 2600 - and we're only in January. Let's say Murray then wins IW - the gap is down to 1400.

    Not saying it's going to happen - but it's not like it couldn't happen.
     
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  7. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Murray can outperform Djokovic on grass, and arguably should. For Murray to end the year #1 i think he would have to win both Wimbledon and the U.S Open though (either that or the Australian and one of Wimbledon or the U.S Open), have a 2011 like clay season, and play consistenty and keep winning throughout the year. Otherwise it will be Djokovic.

    Nadal has a chance if he is able to come back quickly enough to have great results on hard courts from January-March which seems unlikely. His case he probably has to win both the French and Wimbledon to have a chance (either that or the French and a hard court slam but that being less likely), since poor results post U.S Open are predictable.

    Djokovic is the most likely year end #1 but I cant believe he is a mortal lock. He isnt that dominant.
     
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  8. cork_screw

    cork_screw Hall of Fame

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    Murray has solved Djokovic and Fed, but I would like to see what happens when he runs into the spanish bull in the semis or the finals. If he can beat him just half of the time he encounters him in slam or big masters events, I will say that murray will be #1. But it might not happen this year. Let's see how the bull's knees are, so far that's his achilies heel and it's the only thing that is defeating him at the moment.
     
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  9. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    I LOL'ed he's solved them so easily that he cant win a final despite holding 5 MP's and loses 7-6 6-2 to the other
     
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  10. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Theoretically I could be ranked no 1 by June 2013 if I won everything till then while the top 10 are plagued with injuries.

    Now let me flip flop your post - what if Djokovic defended his AO crown, then regained his Dubai and Indian Wells titles while Murray, say, loses a heartbreaking AO final to Novak and his confidence bar reaches 0 %. Instead of a 5000 point difference we could see something like a 7.000-8000 gap.

    During all those years stranger things have happened, f.e. looking at the rankings in May 2009 I would never have guessed that Fed was going to regain the no 1 spot in less than 2 months. And vice versa in mid 2010. But both Fed and Nads have proved over the years that they can sustain GOAT level long enough to be ranked no 1 while Murray plays in patches.
     
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  11. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I still see Murray as the underdog to Nadal in any non indoor match, Djokovic in any non grass match, and Federer in any major event (anything bigger than Masters match) for the time being. He is making progress but hasnt really gained the upper hand in any of those matchups yet. That could change in 2013 depending on how much he keeps progressing.
     
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  12. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic loses in the QF of the Australian Open, Murray wins.
    Djokovic - 11,280
    Murray - 9,280

    Murray wins Dubai.
    Djokovic - 11,280
    Murray - 9,480

    Murray wins Indian Wells while Djokovic makes the SF.
    Djokovic - 11,280
    Murray - 10,470

    Murray makes the QF of Rome while Djokovic withdraws.
    Djokovic - 10,680
    Murray - 10,660

    Murray makes the SF at Roland Garros while Djokovic loses in the SF.
    Murray - 11,020
    Djokovic - 9,840.
     
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  13. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Loses to whom? Is it Berdych? Tsonga? Or maybe Tipsarevic?

    Djokovic is not playing? I'd think if Djokovic lost in the QF in AO he would love to make it up with a couple of wins in Dubai or whichever tournament he plays next.

    Murray has never won there. Isner for another upset?

    Novak withdraws again?:) This is starting to sound like wishful thinking.

    What's the difference between "makes the SF" and "loses in the SF"? So you assume that Murray will reach his first FO final next year?
     
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  14. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    I agree. But damn, the guy hits 26 years old in May. How much longer is he going to progress? Until he's 35?
     
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  15. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Theoretically you couldn't, because you don't have the ranking and wouldn't get the wildcards. That aside, I don't see how Murray winning AO and IW is comparable to you winning every tournament until next June and the rest of the top 10 being injured.

    You asked how a 5000 point gap could be reduced and I showed you. You now seem to be arguing about a point I haven't made - that Murray will make number 1 next year. I have no idea whether he will or not - but I agree he will need to be more consistent outside of the slams if he is to do so.

    He needs to combine his 09/10 non slam consistency with his 11/12 slam consistency - if that happens; then he has a genuine shot.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2012
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  16. 6-1 6-3 6-0

    6-1 6-3 6-0 Banned

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    Meanwhile, Nadal will be snatching all the slams...
     
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  17. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    This all seems like quite a stretch. Especially love the "Withdraws from Rome" part. I mean it could happen but it's still odds against it.

    The big thing for Murray is, like with Federer last year, can Murray avoid a 2 an rivallry? If he is going up against Novak then he could be out of luck. But if Nadalor Federer can rob Novak of some titles, Murray could edge a 3 way split. Let's say he wins Wimledon and is holding 2 slams, well if Djokovic defends Australia and adds RG then Murray might still be chasing number one. However if the other 2 slams are split between Djokovic and Nadal/Federer or Djokovic fails to win a slam, then Murray's chances improve a lot.
     
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  18. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Del Potro could pull through.

    He may need an impartial break to regroup his thoughts.



    If Murray wins the AO, don't you think he will actually try to win the forthcoming tournaments?

    Djokovic withdraws a lot, ya know?

    They're going to both lose in the SF.
     
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  19. jaggy

    jaggy G.O.A.T.

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    He only wins when its windy
     
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  20. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    What if Del Potro isn't drawn with Djokovic in one quarter:)?

    First, Del Potro has to land in Djokovic's section. Then at the same time Del Potro has to show up in GOATmode while Djokovic in CRAPmode and even there I would favor Novak to win in 5.

    Lawl. The toughest player mentally on tour will need a break to regroup his thoughts? Really?:) Unless you mean that one of Djokovic's family members is going to die next year...other than that - not happening.

    Pretty much like everyone else...

    Djokovic would have to break a leg to not show up in Rome.

    If this means that Federer beats Murray in the SF while Nadal beats Djokovic in the SF, I take it!
     
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  21. Rusty669

    Rusty669 Semi-Pro

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    It'll be a very sad day for tennis if Murray ever gets to be number 1 of the world
     
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  22. Headshotterer

    Headshotterer Professional

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    Not at all. Ferrer will defeat Murray at the French. Either Nadal, Djokivic or Federer will beat Murray in Wimbledon, US, or Aus.
     
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  23. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    Okay, so let's suppose all the majors and Masters next year will be windy! :wink:
     
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  24. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    Will it? Why?
     
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  25. sonicare

    sonicare Hall of Fame

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    HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAAH

    Sonicare wins the following in 2013

    abu dhabi
    australian open
    roterdam
    dubai
    indian wells
    miami
    monte carlo
    madrid
    rome
    french open
    queens and halle at the same time cos I am sexiclass
    wimbledon
    toronto
    cincinati
    US open
    tokyo
    shanghai
    basel
    paris
    world tour finals

    This time next year, I am ranked year end no.1

    I will throw a ***** ass party and you are all invited. deal?
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2012
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  26. vive le beau jeu !

    vive le beau jeu ! G.O.A.T.

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    [​IMG]
     
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  27. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    And that's meant to be funny?
     
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  28. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    You're the second person on this thread to try and draw an analogy between something that isn't possible with something that is.

    Sonicare doesn't have the ATP ranking to compete in the above tournaments, and given that he is nothing more than a guy who trolls on a tennis messagboard, I can't see many TD's offering him a wildcard.

    Not the brightest star in the galaxy that Sonicare.
     
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  29. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    I don't see him ending the year #1, not with Novak and Nadal (if his health holds up for an entire year obviously) but he could reach #1 at some point during the next season, why not ?
     
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  30. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Nole is odds on with the bookies for YE number 1, Murray is around 3/1, Rafa around 5/1, roger around 8/1.

    Not sure I agree with the odds or the order, but no doubt Nole is hot favourite.
     
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  31. The Moonballer

    The Moonballer New User

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    Nadal usually makes the final of slams depending on whether Mugray gets in the SF (a bye), but it seems like Murray has improved.

    I think Murray can beat ****** now, but he is Nadulls' fanboy so I doubt it.

    Murray is a better player than ****** now. He just has to not lose his head
     
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  32. Feather

    Feather Hall of Fame

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    Very true Batz

    People talk as if Novak has already won the AO. All tend to forget that Murray was on match points last time they met at AO. If Murray takes out Djokovic in the semi finals then anything is possible
     
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  33. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Not strictly true mate - Murray had 2 BP at 15-40 on Nole's serve when it was 5-5 in the 5th. Had Murray taken one of those points then he would have been serving for the match. although given that Murray has twice lost to Nole from serving for the match, nothing is guaranteed!
     
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  34. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    That's because Djokovic always turns it around when he's on the brink of losing. Maybe next time they face at the AO Murray will take his chances and take him out.
     
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  35. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Murray has prevented the "Rafa Slam" in USO 2008.
     
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  36. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    Yes i forgot that, because it did not happen. :)
     
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  37. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Now that Nadal has been out for a while, Murray has a big chance against Nadal in slams on all surfaces except clay.
     
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  38. kalyan4fedever

    kalyan4fedever Hall of Fame

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    If rafa is healthy, there is no chance for murraa i mean didnt rafa owned andy in 2011 wimbledon,usopen, and roland garros or is the new andy we dont know, but i dont see spanish bull lose his pride
     
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  39. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    That's because he has. And Murray didn't have match points last time they played at the AO that I can recall.
     
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  40. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Murray still really pushed Djokovic in the match and had several chances to close out the match, just didn't take them.
     
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  41. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Doesn't matter if he pushed him or not when he mentally capitulates when the going gets tough. Murray will not beat Cvac at the AO should they meet.
     
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  42. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    I agree at this moment but we don't know in what kind of form will Murray be in AO.
     
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  43. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    The going was pretty tough for Murray at 2-2 in the USO final after being 2-0 up; remind me how that finished?
     
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  44. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Since 2008 Murray is 5-4 versus Rafa on hardcourts, 2-1 in hardcourt slams - including victory at the 2010 AO.

    These are not the numbers of someone with 'no chance'.
     
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  45. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    Aren't you forgetting Murray's curious failure to mentally collapse against Djokovic in the final of the recent USO? What short memories some of us have!
     
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  46. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Dude,don't start with your fierce defense of Murray on me. I was rooting for Andy in that final,and marked him finally winning his first slam as the highlight of the year for me. But even though he won that match,he is still mentally suspect.
     
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  47. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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  48. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    That was Murray before he won the Olympics and the US Open. He's one to look out for now.
     
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  49. NatF

    NatF G.O.A.T.

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    To do it he needs to win one of the first 3 slams or be super consistant all year round. If he wins the AO I think he'll do it. If not he's going to find it alot harder.
     
    #49
  50. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I cant see Cvac losing at the AO to anyone. He will win and cement himself as the best Australian Open player in history. For once I agree with you.
     
    #50

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