Murray Passing Djokovic

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Antonio Puente, Apr 8, 2009.

  1. Antonio Puente

    Antonio Puente Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2009
    Messages:
    2,205
    Location:
    Buenavista
    Can someone who understands the rakings system please tell me what Murray has to do to pass Djokovic in the upcoming months? Is there a reasonable scenario where Murray might pass him by Wimbledon?
     
    #1
  2. Beacon Hill

    Beacon Hill Professional

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2006
    Messages:
    1,236
    Yes. And the ATP site explains the ranking system really well.
     
    #2
  3. Antonio Puente

    Antonio Puente Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2009
    Messages:
    2,205
    Location:
    Buenavista
    So, you don't know exactly what he has to do?
     
    #3
  4. jamesblakefan#1

    jamesblakefan#1 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2007
    Messages:
    15,775
    Location:
    VA Beach
    Just looking at it now, Murray(8840pts) is 170 behind Novak (9010pts). Murray is only defending 150 pts at Monte Carlo, while Novak is defending 450pts. If Novak were to lose in the semis in MC, he'd lose 90 pts (450 to 360). If Murray lost in the semis in MC, hed gain 210pts (150 to 360).

    This would leave Novak at 8920 pts and Murray at 9050, thus overtaking Novak in the rankings.

    This is all, of course, if my math is correct. Check my math.

    Novak: http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/3/en/players/playerprofiles/pointsbreakdown.asp?player=D643

    Murray: http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/3/en/players/playerprofiles/pointsbreakdown.asp?player=MC10

    & the points system.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Entry_Ranking
     
    #4
  5. Antonio Puente

    Antonio Puente Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2009
    Messages:
    2,205
    Location:
    Buenavista
    Thanks, James.
     
    #5
  6. jamesblakefan#1

    jamesblakefan#1 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2007
    Messages:
    15,775
    Location:
    VA Beach
    No prob. Even tho I'm not the real Blake lol.
     
    #6
  7. Antonio Puente

    Antonio Puente Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2009
    Messages:
    2,205
    Location:
    Buenavista
    So, even though Murray isn't very good on clay, it looks like he does have a good chance to pass him just based on the number of points Djokavic has to defend. I suppose Murray just needs solid performances.
     
    #7
  8. rubberduckies

    rubberduckies Professional

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2008
    Messages:
    1,254
    Yeah, Murray and Djokovic are kind of in the same positions Nadal and Federer were after Wimbledon.

    It's pratically impossible for Djokovic to maintain his #3 ranking, not that it really matters.
     
    #8
  9. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579

    Never min by Wimbledon, Murray will pass Novak next week if he matches his performance at Monte Carlo.
     
    #9
  10. grafselesfan

    grafselesfan Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2009
    Messages:
    3,594
    With Federer not playing Monte Carlo Djokovic will be seeded to reach the final. I cant see Murray beating either Nadal or Djokovic on clay so cant see going past the semis. Would Murray still pass Djokovic if Murray lost in the semis and Djokovic the final. Of course there are some unpredictable factors like Ferrer or even Monfils who could beat either depending on the day.
     
    #10
  11. maximo

    maximo Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2008
    Messages:
    3,327
    Location:
    London
    ^^ I know clay is Murray's worst surface, but this year he is a different player from the previous year and so i think he will be able to beat Djokovic in sets.
     
    #11
  12. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579
    No he wouldn't. The gap would be cut to 110 points but Novak would still be three.

    Murray has to match (or better) Novak's performance to take 3rd spot next week.
     
    #12
  13. grafselesfan

    grafselesfan Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2009
    Messages:
    3,594
    OK well I think that will be hard. Djokovic is better than Murray on clay. At Rome is probably where it will happen.
     
    #13
  14. Leublu tennis

    Leublu tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2007
    Messages:
    6,429
    Location:
    Moldova
    If not MC, then the next shot is Rome where Djokovic is defending a W (1000) and Murray has only 70 points. And after that its the FO. Djokovic 900 and Murray 150.

    So its a good bet that Murray will be #3 by Wimby. But he then has 500 to defend and Djokovic only 70. So if Djokovic does relatively well on clay, as some expect him to do, then Murray's hold on #3 may be only temporary. Let me tell you, its a lot more fun this way than Fed 1, Nadal 2, Fed 1, Nadal 2 etc
     
    #14
  15. ace-nelis

    ace-nelis Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2009
    Messages:
    175
    Yeah next week top 3 wil lookdifferent in 3 weeks
     
    #15
  16. jamesblakefan#1

    jamesblakefan#1 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2007
    Messages:
    15,775
    Location:
    VA Beach
    They'll probably flip flop a lot over the next few pts, depending on how many pts Murray loses/Djokovic gains.
     
    #16
  17. rhubarb

    rhubarb Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2004
    Messages:
    1,679
    There is a stagger in the clay court season this year, which means that points coming off don't correspond to the tournament being played that week.

    When Monte Carlo points are added, it's Estoril/Houston/Valencia that are dropped, so unless he can do a lot better than Djokovic in Monte Carlo, Murray will probably have to wait a week or two more to become number three.

    But I'd certainly expect him to get there before Roland Garros, that's for sure.

    Edit: of course being number three, whilst it will mean that he's the highest ranked British man for several decades, doesn't have any advantage in tournaments for Murray - that will only happen when he overtakes Federer for number two.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2009
    #17
  18. gj011

    gj011 Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2007
    Messages:
    6,548
    Location:
    Back from prison
    Exactly. There is really not any difference and advantage of being #3 vs #4. That is why I am not upset at all if Murray takes #3 from Djokovic. The only difference is for tournaments like MC when one of the top 2 guys is not playing, but as we see they can change their mind too :)

    The big difference would be getting #2 or dropping to #5, but any of these are not going to happen soon, unless Federer fails big time on clay as well.

    I expect Djokovic to reclaim #3 (either from Murray or Federer) later during the summer.
     
    #18
  19. clayman2000

    clayman2000 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    2,849
    Actually it can be a difference. For example, i am assuming Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Roddick will all play Queens this year. Right now Djokovic would be the 2 seed and Murray the 3. But if Murray would pass Djokovic, he would have that certainty of not playing Nadal till the final
     
    #19
  20. CocaCola

    CocaCola Professional

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2009
    Messages:
    1,154
    Djokovic is playing in Halle not Queens...
     
    #20
  21. Cosmic Charlie

    Cosmic Charlie New User

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2006
    Messages:
    54
    This year, assuming Murray (at Queens) and Djokovic (at Halle) repeat their 2008 performances, Djokovic will enter the Wimbledon rankings with 1095 grass ranking bonus points versus Murray who has only 620 (it is conceivable that Murray will improve on his QF performance.
    This means that Murray will need a 400 (approx) point lead after the W warmup phase. But that doesn't amountto anything. In order to 'out-seed' Federer (grass bonus=3800 assuming a title at Halle), he'll need to exceed Federer by 3200 points-very unlikely.

    I feel rankings matter on the seeding cut off date of Slams. Players do not benefit in any draw with the year end rankings. Furthermore, seed1=seed2, seed3=seed4, seeds 5, 6,7 and 8 have no advantage over each other, 9 through to 16, and then 17 through 32. Those just out of the top 32 are the dangerous floaters. Players would prefer to be within the top 32 before a slam and fall out of the 32 by the year end. Similarly, it pays to be in the top two before the slam. There is no advantage #1 has over #2. Simlarly, #3 has no edge over #4. Likewise, #9 has the same benefits as #16.

    So back to the OP, Murray could pass Djokovic before W. However Djokovic has gone past the initial trial period on clay and has proven he can hang in there with the best. Murray has yet to prove himself on clay. I'm betting he'll improve on last year's performance.
     
    #21
  22. clayman2000

    clayman2000 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    2,849
    Sorry didnt know. I thought that since he played there last year hed go again

    Finally Federer will have a big name to play against; maybe Halle wont be his first win in the season after all
     
    #22
  23. gj011

    gj011 Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2007
    Messages:
    6,548
    Location:
    Back from prison
    I was talking about that case too (one of two top missing, MC example), but that is a rare occurrence.
     
    #23
  24. Emelia21

    Emelia21 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2008
    Messages:
    401
    Out of interest anyone know Federers opponents at Halle (in the final) over the years :-|
     
    #24
  25. alltennis9

    alltennis9 New User

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2009
    Messages:
    5
    Location:
    UK
    He beat kohlschreiber (easily and a dull affair), i think last year?
     
    #25
  26. rhubarb

    rhubarb Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2004
    Messages:
    1,679
    The others were Kiefer, Fish, Safin and Berdych (2003-06). I remembered three of them but had to look the fourth up. Federer didn't play in 2007 and Berdych won it then.
     
    #26
  27. GameSampras

    GameSampras Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2008
    Messages:
    4,689
    I dunno.. Djoker can widen the lead again during clay and grass season if he brings his A game
     
    #27
  28. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579
    On the assumption that Murray will do at least as well as last year on clay(with a grand total of 520 points to defend on clay that wouldn't be difficult), Novak would have to: make final in MC, win in Rome, make final in Madrid and final @ Roland Garros to 'widen the lead' during the clay season. And bear in mind we're assuming Murray won't do better than last year; not a safe assmption IMHO.

    Given that Novak didn't manage to do this last year when his game was at it's pinnacle to date; I think there is a pretty low probability of it happening this year.

    On grass, Murray is defending 500 points to Novak's 380; a small difference I'm sure you'll agree.

    I do sometimes wonder if you understand how the ranking system works.
     
    #28

Share This Page