My take on the USO final, and future of Federer

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by MichaelChang, Sep 15, 2009.

  1. MichaelChang

    MichaelChang Hall of Fame

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    Being a fan of Federer, I am here to only present objective comments. I do not intend to bring up anything related to GOAT, nor do I intend to bring up comparison to Sampras or Nadal. SO please, no trolling or flaming in this thread. Thanks.

    Many Fed fans have said that they feel less sad compared to his loss in AO2009. I beg to differ. I think his loss today indicates quite some negative look on his future. Here are my reasons:

    1. Before this match, Federer is only vulnerable to Nadal in slams (barring his loss to Djoko in AO08 due to mono). After this match, it is all changed. It gives hope to other young guns to take out Fed in slams. It proves Fed is not invincible in slams.

    2. I think today´s loss defines a turning point in his career. Some might say AO08 defines a turning point, but that may be cuz of his mono. Some might say AO09 defines a turning point, but that he lost to his nemesis Nadal. But today´s loss is something diffrent, it shows he is no longer to adjust to his best level for the last stage in a slam, and it shows he can no longer adjust his game strategy and win based on his experience in slams. It also shows he is slightly less motivated, as he himself shows less emotion after the loss. The next definite turning point of Federer, would be the moment his stops his semi final streams in a slam.

    3. Today´s match shows Federer has lost a step during the later stage in the 4 hour match. It is inevitable as he ages up. Sad but true. Quite often he can not reach or could barely reach some balls which he should have no problem when he was younger.

    4. Some has said Federer´s serve is on par with Sampras´s. Today´s match proved them wrong. No, Federer´server is not as consistent as Pete. Having a great serve is very important for an aging champion on the tour, and can quickly save them out of trouble. I wish Federer could keep this up for the rest of his years remaining on the tour.

    5. Many has already jumped onto the Del Potro wagon. Sure I like this kid too. He deserves the win today. But based on his physique and size, I have to say I think he might not be the next great. He may not be the next one who can win 6+ slams. His legs/fitness might breakdown sooner than other players such as Djoko or Murray. Anyway, I wish I am wrong.
     
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  2. ArrowSmith

    ArrowSmith Banned

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    MichaelChang - remember Sampras didn't even play the '99 US Open because of back injury. Fed has already surpassed Sampras' slam total and will win more.
     
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  3. mandy01

    mandy01 G.O.A.T.

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    Sadly you make a lot of sense :sad:
     
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  4. Olorin

    Olorin Rookie

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    I'll admit, this is a shock and I still can't believe he lost. But I don't believe that he won't win slams. I don't think we can reach conclusions so quickly.

    He won 2 out of 4 slams. That is a good year for Federer ! Not a bad one. I'm happy that Del Potro won. But admittedly, I am still a bit upset because Federer had ample opportunities to close the match out.

    His first serve left him. Big time. In fact his serve altogether was not great hitting 8 (I think) double faults in the match. But by no means do I feel that it's the end of Federer just because he lost a slam.

    People win and lose. Federer has been the most dominant in slams this year. That's about all I could have asked for.
     
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  5. MichaelChang

    MichaelChang Hall of Fame

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    I agree. I said I am not trying to compare the 2. And I surely believe Fed can win more slam titles. The only reason I bring up Pete is that I wish Federer stables his serve. Honestly, when he gets close to 30, he really need that shot to be with him ALL THE TIME.
     
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  6. Olorin

    Olorin Rookie

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    Michael,

    Are you telling me that Sampras never had an off day with serving in a slam ? Ever ?
     
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  7. dwhiteside

    dwhiteside Semi-Pro

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    Are you the real Michael Chang?
     
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  8. wyutani

    wyutani Hall of Fame

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    future of fed? not too bright but i thnk he'll win one more gs and thats it.
     
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  9. ArrowSmith

    ArrowSmith Banned

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    MichaelChange - I think the combination of getting the record + the twins + the rain delays did him in this weekend. Come 2010 Aussie Open it's going to be Fed lowering the hammer again.
     
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  10. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    Federer is still in a much better place than he was a year ago. He has won 2 slams and a Masters title, already more than he won last year. He has won his last 5 matches combined with Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray who he was fareing poorly against for awhile. So essentialy you make no sense. Things were looking much more doomful for Federer less than a year ago than they do now. His chances for future success are looking more promising today than they were earlier this year.

    As for your last comment Del Potro will have a better career than either Murray and Djokovic, and Djokovic the weakest of those 3. Djokovic will be lucky to win 1 more slam in his career in fact.
     
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  11. ArrowSmith

    ArrowSmith Banned

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    flying24 - on the contrary I think Djokovic has potential to be a 4-6 slam winner.
     
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  12. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    You are entitled your opinion. Time will tell. I personally think his career has already seen its best days.
     
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  13. JohnnySpot

    JohnnySpot New User

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    The future of Federer is diaper change!
     
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  14. sh@de

    sh@de Hall of Fame

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    Hmm... OP actually is probably right on most points. It's just I'm not sad about Fed's loss because I kind of don't mind if he retires now... but of course I'm not saying I would like him to... it's so hard to explain.
     
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  15. ArrowSmith

    ArrowSmith Banned

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    Right now I think they're all tired and need a long rest.
     
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  16. namelessone

    namelessone Legend

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    I don't think Fed fans should be too upset. This was bound to happen sometime but Federer is not finished,not by a long shot. You really though Fed would be winning everything even with young guns rising? The guy is human no matter how many "fed is god" threads keep popping up.

    I'm a Nadal fan so perhaps I am not quite objective but here's my deal on the whole Federer situation. After RG Federer is playing DETACHED,with little to no pressure. He himself said that he plays more freely now but it's a double edged sword because he can either click and be in god mode(see cincy) or ******** can show up on any given day and roger can look like he doesn't give a f**k.

    When he got beat time and time again at the RG he had a ultimate challenge to look forward to,beating Nadal there and securing Career Slam. He didn't get to beat Rafa but he won RG and it took the pressure off his shoulders. He played sublimely in Wimbledon but was pushed to 5 by roddick of all people but came up with some terrific serves in clutch moments and got taken to 5 by JMDP,a GS final virgin, in USO and got beat.
    Federer has been in near god mode this USO but in my opinion this caused him to get cocky and it cost him the final.Case in point,Fed had 30-0 at the end of the second but decided on some beauty shots instead of closing out the set. And this wasn't just a one time affair,Roger toyed with DelPo throghout the first two sets and to be honest I didn't like it,it felt a bit disrespectful on Roger's part. He clearly dominated DelPo for the first 2 sets but this "playful" behaviour cost him the second set and the match because it boosted DelPo's confidence once the big guy came back to win the second.

    The match would have been played on a different level with Federer leading 2-0. Federer has another year of making Slam finals IMO and in 2,3 years tops he retires. Fed has a huge ego,he cannot take big defeats and move on so quickly. It's ok to lose once in a while for him but if he starts losing at the big events frequently he will retire. The year when Fed doesn't reach any Slam Finals is the year he retires IMO. I don't think that's the case for now.
    Fed should consider himself lucky to have made 15 and Career Slam. A few months ago almost no one would have considered this a possibility,quite the contrary.
     
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  17. JustBob

    JustBob Hall of Fame

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    "Today's match shows..."
    "Today's match proves..."

    That every win and (especially) loss is overanalyzed and overscrutinized. He lost. He didn't have his 'A' game. Today. In this one match. That's all this "shows" or "proves". Supremely gifted athletes essentially create a "monster" and when they lose or don't perform to their usual level, people go "oh my god, what's wrong with him!". Then they start overanalyzing every minute detail of their performance and jump to premature, and often silly, conclusions.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2009
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  18. bluetrain4

    bluetrain4 Legend

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    I generally agree with this. He's a great player and right now the bandwagon is large. And, why not. He played great, beat Nadal and Fed and showed some heart. He's got real weapons and when he's "on" he can beat anyone.

    But as always when a player plays great and wins, everyone assumes that Slams will come in bunches. I'm not saying Delpo couldn't win 4-6 Slams, but he could just as easily end with 2.

    Also, as much as I think people jump on the bandwagon too quickly, they also jump off too quickly. Let's say Delpo suffers a "bad" loss at the AO or the French (plays a bad match where the shots aren't falling to someone he should beat, loses to a hot inconsistent player like Tsonga), I know people will be jumping off the bandwagon and saying the USO was a fluke. But, it happens. We've gotten so use to Fed and Nadal, who while they dominated hardly ever had bad losses. Yet most champions do. Careers ebb and flow (look at Agassi).
     
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  19. SoCal10s

    SoCal10s Hall of Fame

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    this is Fe-dear-er ,he just loses focus and gets all emotional for reasons beyond those of a great champion ... he gets into his funk and he completely loses it ... it's happening all the time now.. first he starts double faulting like crazy,then he starts shanking balls all over the place,then comes all the un-forced errors, then he looks for reasons to blame(racket,challenge system,umpire,ect)he's stating to act like a little b!tch like his friend Tiger Woods.. he should be more like Sampras and not let things bother him as much... and what's with tears when he loses?
     
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  20. lambielspins

    lambielspins Banned

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    Agassi is not a typical tennis career at all. One shouldnt expect a career with such highs and lows from even lesser greats than Agassi.
     
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  21. AndrewD

    AndrewD Legend

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    This really shouldn't be such a surprise. Federer misses an opportunity to close out the match, his opponent gets a second wind, stays with Fed in the 5th and Fed folds/chokes/whatever you like to call it. He did it against Nadal at the 08 Wimbledon and he used to do it regularly in the early part of his career. If you can hang with him he is very prone to nerves. Nadal has been able to do it, Murray has been able to do it (in lesser events), Hewitt was able to do it (albeit against a less mature Fed - but that doesn't make it insignificant) and now Del Potro has done it.

    Sure, we didn't expect it to happen but it's really not the biggest surprise in the world because, if you've been paying attention, it is something we have seen before.
     
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  22. velkov

    velkov Rookie

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    a lot of sense i guess !!! agree in full !!
     
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  23. tata

    tata Professional

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    Well federer cant win it all i guess?I mean this isnt to say that fed is vulnerable to potro (he still leads a strong h2h) but i think it marks a transition period from federer to the young guns now. Kind of like when fed first beat sampras in wimbledon. And Nadals knees arent getting any younger are they?This is totally normal i rekon. Even if fed just wins 1 slam a year for the next 2-3 yrs, thats still a pretty healthy record he is going to hold in terms of slams. 17-18 or so.
     
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  24. JohnnySpot

    JohnnySpot New User

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    JMDP eats baby tennis balls for snacks! roar-nom!
     
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  25. Fedfan1234

    Fedfan1234 Rookie

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    Well all I can say is that we have to wait and see. Like you said a lot of people though AO 2008 was the end, after that AO 2009 and now people are already saying that this is the end. Don't forget Federer was serving for a 2 set lead when he messed up, if he had won that game it would have been different. At some point in the match he was also 2 (consecutive) points away from the win. In the end Del Potro deserved to win, but still it could have gone either way. Federer has at least 2 more good years to go. These years probably will be less good than others, but he will still reach finals and semi-finals. If he can reach these stages he can still win more slams. However I do think he does miss a lot of rythm in his slam matches, because he does not play for such long times. I think he needs to balance this better. He is afraid to get injured if he plays too much I can understand, but I think he now plays too little matches.
    I disagree on Del Potro, he probably will not win as much as Federer or Sampras, but he is a big champion in the making. I think he has chances on basicly every surface. Not so sure about grass but I think he can learn. He seems to be very consistent as well, QF USO 08, QF AO 09, SF RG 09, USO 09 win. Injury problems are a possibility, but he won't be injured for 8-10 years.
     
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  26. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    I don't think today marks a major turning point for Federer, if anything it marks a turning point for Del Potro. All players have ups and down. Delpo would have beaten any player other than Federer, and surely Djokovic as well.
    Federer's serve has been decent all tournament except this match. Federer was red hot from the Cincinnati Semis and to the USO semis, with many saying Federer had not performed this well in years.
     
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  27. ruerooo

    ruerooo Legend

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    *sigh*
    I got "on the bandwagon" when JMDP won Stuttgart in '08. He's my next favorite player after Rafa and Roger (see icon).

    That said, the man was pounding out some forehands surpassing 100 mph. Roger's head may have gone away at some points -- the Hawkeye thing was a big problem; he couldn't shake it and he just needed to let it go -- but he didn't lose to "just some young guy".

    I'm not a Djoker fan, but I give credit to him for improving immeasurably in the past year. We didn't see him in the final.

    There were people that stopped watching the match after the 2nd set b/c they thought it was pretty much over, because Roger was playing a ridiculous level of tennis and they thought it was all over. He's that good.

    I think an occasional loss keeps him humble, but I wouldn't count him out of the game and have his professional funeral just yet.
     
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  28. BreakPoint

    BreakPoint Bionic Poster

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    Federer hit 11 double faults in the match. That's got to be a record for him. Yes, his serve was almost nonexistent today. Maybe he can go commiserate with Sharapova? :shock:
     
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  29. BreakPoint

    BreakPoint Bionic Poster

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    I'm not upset that Federer lost. I'm upset at the way he played and the manner in which he lost. It was as if he didn't take the match seriously or that he didn't really want to win it. Delpo handed the match to him on a silver platter but Federer refused to take it. The way Federer played today, he deserved to lose.
     
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  30. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    I didn't really view this loss as a turning point. If you look at the entire year, he's had stretches where the UEs just pack up on his FH side in addition to the on-and-off aspect of his BH. That happened today. Could be wind. Could be fatigue. Could be that he couldn't handle Del Potro's pace.

    He essentially lost the Australian Open due to the service problems, and in the prior game against Djokovic, he was searching for his serve through the first set. But here, even if he had his first serve going, it would have been very close.

    Nowadays, Federer is mostly about optimal point construction patterns to defeat his opponents. The inherent problem with Del Potro is that DelPo's game has rapidly evolved over the past year. He was a different opponent than the one he saw at Australian Open, and different from the one he saw at the French Open.
     
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  31. IvanisevicServe

    IvanisevicServe Banned

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    You make some good points, but I don't agree with some things:

    2. He didn't look any less motivated to me. He looked like he was better able to handle the loss since he didn't break down and cry again, but then he was embarrassed about what happened in Australia and probably told himself over and over again "You won the FRENCH OPEN this year. Oh, and Wimbledon too, for that matter. And you have the Grand Slam record."

    But if you saw how snippy he was today, I don't see how you can question his motivation. He wanted it. BAD. For a moment I thought he was going to break his racket when he was UP a set and a break because he couldn't get a first serve in. I thought he was ready to snap at the end of the 4th set and punch out the umpire. He looked flat-out pissed at the way he felt he was getting hosed by BS.


    3. Last year against Igor Andreev in the USO 4th round his movement looked awful toward the end as well. But I think that has more to do with the fact that he's confused and not exactly sure how to play the guy because he's being pressed. Del Potro was blasting 100+ MPH forehands his way. It's not easy to hold your ground against those.


    4. I agree that it's not on par with Sampras', but this was THE worst day he has EVER had serving...probably since the juniors. I almost doubt he had a day as bad as today in that area even then. This made his serving performance at the AO this year in the final against Nadal look GOOD by comparison. In the first 2 sets, I swear, it seemed like his percentage must have been under 25%. He was missing 8-10 in a row at a time before getting 1 in.
     
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  32. Polvorin

    Polvorin Professional

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    Yeah, his forehand just deserts him sometimes. That never used to happen in the past. Like Miami earlier this year when he smashed the racket. It wasn't quite that bad today but still pretty horrendous compared to how it was against Djokovic the day before.

    It was very close even without a serve. I think if he has a normal serving day this thing is straight sets.
     
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  33. drakulie

    drakulie Talk Tennis Guru

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    He got beat. Delpo stepped it up, fed didn't. Move on
     
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  34. Sartorius

    Sartorius Professional

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    Indeed.

    If there is any player out there that won't make such overanalyziations for himself, it's Federer. From his post-match interview:

     
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  35. fed_rulz

    fed_rulz Hall of Fame

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    MichaelChang, your post is partly right, in that Fed may not have as much success as before. But one match does not prove anything, especially in comparison to Pete's serve.... If you take the wimby finals as your sample point, then you could easily say "today's match clearly proves that Fed has a better serve than sampras....". It may be true that Pete has a better serve, but this one match does not prove it. And how does this one match prove that he "no longer" can adjust his strategy etc..
     
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  36. fed_rulz

    fed_rulz Hall of Fame

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    +1 . Great post, completely agree
     
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  37. AAAA

    AAAA Hall of Fame

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    We don't even need to look that up. The fact that Sampras at his best according to his fans can beat any one of his generation and the fact he age vs age accomplished less than Federer shows he had more off days in slams.
     
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  38. kkm

    kkm Semi-Pro

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    The start of Fed downfall yesterday was his playing the critical game in the second set(his serve) too casually, which DelPo ended up winning to get it back on serve. Worst was his hitting that shot just over his head instead of a serious attempt at a lob, which was followed by DelPo's consecutive forehand winners.
    Fed was the one who looked to stay rattled as the match went deeper into the fourth. He takes the ball early, but seemed to be sacrificing some pace especially on his backhand side, which also seemed to be noticeably less stable as his frustration mounted. DelPo hit a number of his big forehand winners on the run, too. What a crazy match. Fed started well, DelPo started nervously, then it became a tight match, DelPo had a little meltdown to gift Fed the third, then he recovered, Fed had a meltdown but didn't recover, which DelPo capitalized on, credit to him. Fifth set score was same as the Aussie fifth, eh?
     
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  39. kkm

    kkm Semi-Pro

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    But Sampras didn't really have any epic meltdowns, I think?
     
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  40. darthpwner

    darthpwner Banned

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    My thread is similar to yourshttp://tt.tennis- warehouse.com/showthread.php?p=3941041#post3941041
    I agree I think this might be Federer's true decline like Sampras was in 2000-2002 after Wimbledon
     
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  41. darthpwner

    darthpwner Banned

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    Look at it this way. Sampras lost mainly in early rounds when he did lose. When Federer loses, its the finals of a slam.
     
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  42. crazylevity

    crazylevity Hall of Fame

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    Federer lost this match, which he could have won. It's a little disappointing, but being a fan, I'm very encouraged by this hardcourt season.

    From Cincinatti till the USO semis, Federer showed SUBLIME FORM, even at his age. He took on all the young guns that came his way and blasted all of them off the court in straight sets. We haven't this level of Federer for a while now, so it's very encouraging.
     
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  43. bruce38

    bruce38 Banned

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    To me it kinda seemed like Fed didn't care as much. Which makes sense now that he's done it all. In that second set when he was up a break, previous Fed would have buried him. But he started losing focus. His level is certainly lower in general overall, but c'mon he played very badly in the final compared to the previous rounds. I think he can win a couple of more slams and will continue to go deep into them.
     
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  44. cknobman

    cknobman Legend

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    It Feds own fault he lost and I dont feel sorry for him.

    Fed was running away with match in 2nd set but started fracking around. Crowd was loosing hope and interest, Fed sensed it and so did everybody else. Then Fed let off pedal and before he knew it Delpo actually started gaining momentum.

    Last night was a perfect lesson on why you never let off the pedal in a match no matter how lopsided a match is because once the momentum turns it can be impossible to get back.
     
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  45. 10ACE

    10ACE Professional

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    Fed was in every major final this year. Hmmmmm I think he's loosing his touch.

    Those who played Federer had to play their best tennis.

    To say Federer has lost anything or is in dire straits seems far fetched.
     
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  46. Henry Kaspar

    Henry Kaspar Rookie

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    Federer is 28, few slam titles are won at that age. Any player runs out of time at some point.
     
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  47. icedevil0289

    icedevil0289 Legend

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    Everyone's run has to come to end sometime and roger's run at the USO did so tonight. No one can continue to win forever. Anyways, this year has certainly been a great year for him professionally and personally, so as fans we really have nothing to feel bad about. I think people should realize that he is getting older and his game has been in decline for quite some time now and will only continue to get worse, not better. He might win more slams, or he might not, but I'm okay with that.
     
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  48. icedevil0289

    icedevil0289 Legend

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    I disagree. Del Potro had a huge role in why fed lost. He was just playing really well, serving well, blasting those forehands. Yes fed's serve abandoned him and he did make quite a few errors, but dpot just outplayed him, plain and simple.
     
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  49. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    People seem to impute a lot of things from a few shots by Federer. He may have made a mistake on one shot vs. Del Potro in the 2nd set when up 30-0...but it looked like he was out of position and had no choice anyways.

    He lost the match because he had a bad serving day and Del Potro upped his level and took advantage. Congratulations to Del Potro.

    It doesn't "prove" or "show" anything about Federer, except what everyone should have known all along: that he is beatable. He's really good and really consistent, but everyone has bad days, and there isn't a button that he can press to suddenly start playing his best tennis.

    He got to the final of all 4 majors. He won 2 of them -- the 2 most important ones for him, imo, the FO and Wimbledon. He played exceptional clay-court tennis to beat Nadal at Madrid, and at the FO with that great drop shot. He was incredibly clutch against Roddick at Wimbledon, with 51 aces; he served great there. He served poorly at the AO and maybe even more-so at the USO. He still made his opponents go 5 sets. I don't think he looked tired at the end, he just wasn't serving well enough to hold against Del Potro who was playing really well.

    It is really pretty crazy when a 2-slam year where you make all of the slam finals is treated like some indicator of doom. It is bound to happen that at some point, he'll be beaten at the USO. And it did. That isn't really some horrible thing that is a strike against him. It wasn't bound to happen that he'd win the FO, yet he did, and that's a great accomplishment.
     
    #49
  50. Turning Pro

    Turning Pro Professional

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2005
    Messages:
    1,430
    But wait, the pressure of winning the french and breaking the GS total makes Federer even MORE confident and will make him the favourite of winning all the slams from now on :roll:
     
    #50

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