My thoughts on Federer and his reign.

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Turning Pro, Aug 22, 2007.

  1. Turning Pro

    Turning Pro Professional

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    As each year passes by At Wimbledon particularly, Nadal is going to have a better shot at taking down Fed as he gets older. He was close this year at Wimby at he'll take some stopping next year. Now many of you people say Nadal will have injuries preventing him from taking No.1 but imo i think he'll stay healthy and win with his style of game until he's 26/27/28 at least. Fed would be 31/32/33 by then i presume. Now there's other dangers lurking for Federer as People like Djokovic will stand in his way and other rising stars.

    My prediction: Feds decline in 2009 starting at the Aus open. He'll might win a couple of slams after that but no more i think.


    PS. Fed and Nadal fanboys should be able to deal with a opinion without getting mad over their TFT/LCD screens.

    ?
     
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  2. krz

    krz Professional

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    I'm on a CRT RAWR!
     
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  3. FEDEXP

    FEDEXP Professional

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    Well your prediction is pretty easy to come up with based on Federer's age. I do always find it amusing though, that because Nadal is so much younger, many assume that automatically translates into a career of supremacy for him. We'll see.....
     
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  4. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    That's not a bold prediction. If Federer declines at beginning 2009, getting a couple of slams after that, he would likely get 17 slam titles. That's huge.

    Don't understand your logic. It sounds like Djokovic and other rising stars only pose risk to Federer, not Nadal.
     
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  5. Polaris

    Polaris Hall of Fame

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    It is amusing to read that in your universe, Djokovic will stand in Federer's way, but not in Nadal's.

    If I was Federer and someone told me that I have a solid year and a half as a tennis pro before I start to decline, I would probably feel rather good about myself. Especially if I have been wiping the floor with everyone for 4 years already. I know you like Nadal and I hope that your wish is fulfilled and that Nadal stays healthy and competitive on all surfaces when he is 26/27/28. On current evidence, I wouldn't hold my breath.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2007
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  6. shutupova

    shutupova Guest

    mostly i agree in the sense that the year 2009 will be very interesting year for tennis fans.
    i just hope that fed-nadal-djokovic plus some new comers will produce
    very intense rivalry.
     
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  7. joeyscl

    joeyscl Rookie

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    Even thought I totally root federer, let's face it, Roger is gonna get old faster than Nadal's knees wear out (or whatever other injuries he may induce from his playing style what have you)
     
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  8. bluetrain4

    bluetrain4 Legend

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    I would say that Fed's peak was 2006.

    I'd say he's slightly (but on slightly) on the downside of his career and that Slams will be harder to come by.

    This is a natrual career progression.

    That said, I still expect him to eclipse Sampras. He may not win 3 slams in a year anymore (though he could do it again in just 3 weeks), but I don't see him never winning a Slam again just because he is slightly past his peak (which is only my opinion, he could very well peak again).

    I'm not part of the Fed-Nadal wars and appreciate both players. But, I am in the camp of people who think Nadal's style won't hold up until he's 27, 28. Not that he won't be competitive or even win slams, but I just don't see him being the world beater that he often is today. It's not only his style, but the simple fact that by the time he's 26, 27, other players who we can't even imagine now will come up to challenge him. This happens all the time. We're sitting here wondering whether Monfils or Gasquet or Berdych will raise their games to challenge Rafa in the future, when Rafa's biggest future threat is probably a mid-ranked, not-yet-physically-developed 15yo junior

    Then again, Nadal can play more aggressivley and shorten points, which would help him in the future.

    Nadal really has to win a Slam on another surface. Wimbledon finals are impressive indeed, but he shoots way up in tennis history if he can win something other than the French. For all he's done, there's a lot he hasn't and he's in prime position to remedy that situation.
     
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  9. bluetrain4

    bluetrain4 Legend

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    I mean to say "but only slightly" not "but on slightly"
     
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  10. Turning Pro

    Turning Pro Professional

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    I'm not basing it just on his age but things just won't last forever and at 28/29 i doubt he'll fend off Nadals', Murrays' and Djokovics'.

    Yes, i think Nadal and Djokovic will be 1 & 2 around 2010. It may not even be for long but they're definitely coming up for the future.
     
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  11. CyBorg

    CyBorg Legend

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    He'll win a couple of slams after that, like Rod Laver? Amazing.
     
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  12. Turning Pro

    Turning Pro Professional

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    This might be earlier than i anticipated.
     
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  13. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    federer Is Done
     
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  14. Serve and Volley

    Serve and Volley Banned

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    Interesting point. Mcenroe never won a grandslam after the age of 25 and I think Borg retired at 25.

    Fed is 26 now....so if history repeats itself then his downward spiral should be starting right about now.
     
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  15. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    He should switch to a bigger head racquet if he wants to keep going a little longer.
     
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  16. allrightguy

    allrightguy Rookie

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    It's impossible to be #2 if you choke. US open final was a horrid match
     
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  17. cknobman

    cknobman Legend

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    Good point. Once Fed starts to decline he should take a pointer from Sampras and move up a head size. Sampras learned the hard way by not switching until after he retired and he openly admits now after switching and seeing/feeling the difference that it was a mistake for him not to move up.
     
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  18. ananda

    ananda Professional

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    psst ... next one shoud be a change of girl-friend. and perhaps a babolat racket too.
     
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  19. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    I don't want Fed to miss out winning 2 more majors and equaling Sampras. OK, he won't win the French, but he should at least win 2 more majors so people will remember him after he retires. Otherwise old timers will be posting here about Federer and the new ones will be like:

    Who is Federer?

    The guy with 12 Slams.

    Hey but Sampras won 14.

    Doesn't matter - Fed was the greatest.

    Grandpa, even Agassi won the French, what did this Fed guy do?
     
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  20. Cyan

    Cyan Hall of Fame

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    Fed's domination is over. He will be lucky if he wins a Slam in 2008....
     
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  21. marpiw

    marpiw Semi-Pro

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    Please take David Nalbandian in account.Thanks:)
     
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  22. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    He needs to get a coach.
     
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  23. Rhino

    Rhino Legend

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    Well yes but Nadal will still have to make the final of Wimbledon again if he is to face Federer there. I have some doubts about this.
     
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  24. vince916

    vince916 Semi-Pro

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    Fed will drop out of the Top 20 in 2008.
     
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  25. Rhino

    Rhino Legend

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    Oh so you think that people like Chela, Youzhney, Robredo, Blake, etc will have a better year than Federer?
     
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  26. shintan17

    shintan17 Semi-Pro

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    Come on guys...Fed is still the best player in the World, but rests and AGE are catching up to him (maybe the motivation as well). Fed has been on the slight decline since 2006 already. I personally think his best years were 2004 and 2005 when he looked like a superman and invinsible on the court. Yes, he won three slams each in 06 and 07 because he is just so much better than everyone else. Fed probably knows he is not getting any better at this age anyway, but if he works hard and keep himself motivated, I still see him win probably two slams in 2008, I don't think he will win three, but all depends on others stepping up.

    If I were Fed, I would just concentrate on winning slams, especially keep the streak going at the Wimby, and winning the RG which he hasn't won, those are two main goals. Staying at no.1 is not as important because people only remember greatness for how you do in the slams...not how long you staying at no.1.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2007
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  27. Rhino

    Rhino Legend

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    No I thjink his best year was 2006 when he ended with 8000+ ranking points.
    The AO will be interesting as Fed won it this year without dropping a set.
     
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  28. ninman

    ninman Hall of Fame

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    If he wins the AO and Wimbledon then he'll hold record winning streaks at 3 of the 4 slams at the same time. I think his "poor" year this year might just be the kick up the arse that he needs to work harder. I reckon next year will be his best year on tour then it'll be all downhill after that.
     
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  29. jstr

    jstr Rookie

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    I seem to remember that Fed was "finished" last Spring... yet he somehow managed to win 2 more slams ... hmmmmm
     
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  30. VGP

    VGP Legend

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    The AO is a bit of a black box in '08 since the surface will be different......
     
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  31. samster

    samster Legend

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    Federer is done.
     
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  32. ShooterMcMarco

    ShooterMcMarco Hall of Fame

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    People said that he was on the decline when he won 2 slams in 2005. Then he came back to win 6 out of 8 slams. He's set the bar so high that more than 4 losses in a year is a major deal to people.
     
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  33. ninman

    ninman Hall of Fame

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    I keep saying, all of this is the calm before the storm. Next year will be Federer's best year I tell you.
     
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  34. grizzly4life

    grizzly4life Professional

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    i thought the OP's comments were decent.... i think fed's getting to the point where he needs great mental focus to destroy the field, whereas two years ago he could do it more easily... and suggesting fed decline starting in early 09 isn't too radical. suggesting it starts today would be (although reasonable opinion).

    two things:

    nadal is younger than fed... but i think nadal's game is much more dependent on youth.... and there will be other djokovic's out there the next five years, which is when nadal will be in his supposed "prime"
     
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  35. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    Personally, I think the issue is just workload. He's scaled back his scheduling to concentrate on slams, quite significantly from last year. His conditioning and footwork had been up and down all year -- sometimes great, sometimes he's standing straight up in his BHs (which usually means he's tired and is about to lose the match) -- and he may be having nagging injury issues that he isn't saying.

    This is probably the best strategy if he really intends competing well into his mid-30s. But I don't think he can realistically win the French this way.
     
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  36. fastdunn

    fastdunn Legend

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    well, my theory has been that the longevity of top players will be shortened in today's baseline only tennis based on following 3 facts:

    1. longer points and higher number of tournaments required to play (18 compared to 13 in past).--> more burden on body
    2. less options to extend reign (S&V or net game is not fully liable option any more). if your baseline game doesn't work, you're basically done.
    3. homogenization of surface speed (less specialization to protect reign, compared to very polarized 90's). when your domination weakens, there is no specialized place to hide(maybe except clay).

    Well, Federer has been defying my logic for very long and might eventually prove my logic is wrong. He is probably very special player with so much intangibles.

    Federer has clearly shown this year he is pacing himself and focusing more on slams for the long haul. Unless he underperforms at slams, he is no where near decline.

    But my bet is still on Federer's not breaking the Sampras' 6 consecutive year end #1 record based on my logic above.
     
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  37. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't become more resolved to do this after speaking with Sampras a number of times. For example, the guy didn't play another tourney for more than a month after the US Open. His serve was wonky in the beginning of the year. His FHs sometimes disappeared for whole matches. All just kinda points to a lack of consistency this year. With that said, he has the winning percentage of all players this year, and he still won 3 slams. And, so, it's still working for him.
     
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  38. 127mph

    127mph Semi-Pro

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    Q. What's your main concern: reaching No. 1 or holding off the up-and-coming players?

    Toni Nadal: I’m not worried about Federer at all. I think the opposite: Roger motivates us, it’s a big hope we have, to become No. 1 one day, but it’s not our main goal right now. The new ones coming, they are our main concern. Not only Djokovic, of course he’s a great player, but also Nalbandian. If he’s willing to, he could become no. 1 in the world. Murray, Gasquet, Berdych, Ferrer… the new generation is coming strong and if you blink, you lose.

    Q. About the No. 1 spot, your mindset could be that Federer is older, so Rafa could have the chance one day in the future...

    Toni Nadal: No, I don’t think that way, because tennis changes every minute. Now we are No. 2 and then you can have Del Potro… I didn’t mention him before, but he will be in the top group soon and he could be the next no. 2. Everything is relative here. You have to give credit to where you are: being the No. 2 player in the world with Federer as the only one up there, it’s a privilege.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2007
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  39. FedForGOAT

    FedForGOAT Professional

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    Del Potro is a bit overrated, IMO.
     
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  40. cknobman

    cknobman Legend

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    Agreed. Plus I cant stand to watch him play. That stupid @ss hair of his bugs the ever living **** out of me.
     
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  41. alas

    alas New User

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    everyone declines, it's inevitable..it's a matter of when and for Roger Federer, he'll know when is the right time. And the right time is when he equals or overtake Pete Sampras' record. Period.
     
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  42. Turning Pro

    Turning Pro Professional

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    That's the first time Federer's lost in straight sets in a GS since 2004 FO and the first time he lost a semi of any tournament in 3 years.

    I did say Djokovic in my OP as a threat and this may be a bit premature(Still a bit too early) but you see where i'm going with this?
     
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  43. tricky

    tricky Hall of Fame

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    Remains to be seen whether this is a harbinger of this year . . . or maybe Fed was just off (sick?) and will come back strong later in the year. I'm not judging, and I picked Joker to beat Federer anyway. But, you know this is a great way to start off the year. It just feels like the field's finally opening up now.
     
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  44. Turning Pro

    Turning Pro Professional

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    Am i a year early with this prediction?

    ......Right on cue
     
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