Nadal at #5 can lead to an interesting Roland Garros

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by merwy, Jan 30, 2013.

  1. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    ..and Wimbledon

    This is probably going to happen since there is a 1400 points gap in between the #4 and #5 ranking. Ferrer would have to screw up pretty bad to not be ranked 4th at RG or Nadal would have to win Madrid (okay) and Indian Wells and Miami (can't imagine these two happening). And we're not even sure Nadal will win all the clay tournaments he did last year. RG is an opportunity for Nadal to lose more points so I think he won't be able to get back in the top 4 by Wimbledon either.

    I can't remember the last time we had the "real" top 4 competing while not being seeded 1-4. Think of all the possibilities. If we're unlucky with the draws (wouldn't be the first time) Nadal gets put in the same quarter as Ferrer and nothing special happens. But! What would happen if Nadal and Djokovic met in the quarters? They would finish each other off and give the other semi-finalist a good chance of winning, giving someone like Federer a possible shot at the title. I know Djokovic doesn't get tired but even he would have to feel something after going through Nadal on clay. But wait.. What if Nadal goes in Federer's quarter. Would be pretty bad news for Federer but still it would be the most awesome and most viewed quarterfinal ever.

    How do you feel about this?
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2013
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  2. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Murray was seeded 5th at the 2010 Australian Open and met Nadal in the quarterfinals. Soderling was seeded 4th.
     
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  3. Agassifan

    Agassifan Hall of Fame

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    Rafa has a 50% chance of drawing either Federer or Ferrer - Guys who he can beat on clay without much trouble. If this was a hard court slam, he'd be in deep trouble.
     
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  4. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

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    no, Delpo was the #4 seed @ the AO in 2010, soderling was seeded #8.

    considering that delpo had considerably more success at the slams than murray in 2009, that's hardly a surprise ...
     
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  5. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    Can't imagine him losing to Murray. Or they might as well turn all the courts into slow hard courts since it clearly doesn't matter. One thing is that we're not sure how good Nadal at RG will be. I expect him to be as good as last year but you never know. The lack of matches might actually show. Anyway if Federer gets lucky with the draws, which he won't, he will get to play against "not Nadal" in the quarters and Ferrer in the semis and get a pretty easy road to the finals, which he will probably lose to Djokovic or Nadal after leading the first set 5-0 40-0 and still losing it. You can't deny that there are some interesting possibilities when it comes to the draws.
     
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  6. vandre

    vandre Hall of Fame

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    do we know for sure he's even playing indian wells and miami this year? if i were him there's no way i'd go back and forth between clay and hc a month or 2 before the euro clay season starts after being on the shelf for 6 months. if it were my call, i'd say forget iw and miami and stick to the clay.

    you're also forgetting about the tournaments he's adding that he didn't play at last year. no where near the same tier as iw & miami but he should be able to pickup a few cheap and easy points there (not much compared to a decent result at either of the u.s. events though).

    i don't think it matters a bit wherever rafa is seeded at the french. shoot, he could be a qualifier and still be a lock to go home with the trophy. he won't have may points to defend at wimbledon, so if he's healthy, he should make up some points there.
     
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  7. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    When it comes to Roland Garros it means nothing unless Nadal draws Djokovic it really means nothing except for whoever of Federer, Ferrer, or Murray draws Nadal in the quarters and is a certain loser and out of the event. Nadal vs Djokovic could go either way at this point probably though, and could take something out of the winner as well. If Nadal feels fit enough to play, and played well enough to be in the quarters, no way he is losing to any of Federer, Ferrer, or Murray at Roland Garros.

    Wimbledon is more intriguing. Nobody knows how a Nadal-Federer, Nadal-Murray, or Nadal-Djokovic match on grass would go at this point. Nadal would just be replacing Ferrer (likely out in the 3rd round or so) as the top 4 seed there if he winds up in his quarter.
     
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  8. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Oops, my bad. I thought Soderling broke into the top four at some point.
     
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  9. norbac

    norbac Legend

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    He did, after winning the Paris Masters in 2010.
     
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  10. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal beats Federer easy on grass too?
     
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  11. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    Yes, I said basically the same thing last week: http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=451962
     
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  12. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    A log of speculation about nothing...let's see how he gets through the Golden Swing before we start contemplating any tactical scheduling moves he makes regarding the twin MS1000's in the US. If he flies through the clay in the Americas, he will have the "seeding motivation" to play both IW and Miami so he has a chance at the top 4 before RG. First things first...play some competitive matches on the friendliest surface to his ailing joint. After that, let's get it on if all is well!
     
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  13. DeShaun

    DeShaun Banned

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    Rafa seeing any RG draw as something to be tiptoed through with help from a better seed for himself (than had he not played/done well in say IW or Miami) is kind of hard for me to imagine. I suppose he always approaches RG convinced that if he is ready to go, then nobody's stopping him no matter Rafa's seed.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2013
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  14. FedError

    FedError Semi-Pro

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    Soderling was actually seeded 4th for the 2011 AO but ended up getting Murray in his quarter anyway.
     
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  15. Rocky89

    Rocky89 Professional

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    We'll just have to wait and see how he performs during the Golden Swing first, mind you in the recent videos of him training he looks very uncomfortable when playing and even trips when sliding.

    I don't have high expectations for him during the clay swings this year, I have a feeling if his knees and performance don't improve by RG then he has a good chance in losing to Djokovic, Murray, Federer and even Ferrer in the quarters.
     
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  16. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    This will actually end up being Djokovic's draw at RG. If you have been following the draws since the USO, Djokovic has been getting cake draws since then. ITF wants him to win as many slams as possible. Now that Federer breaking the slam record is old news, they figure someone going for the new slam record, Djokovic, will bring interest back into the sport. So he ends up getting clown draws at the slams. This will be trend from now on. Djokovic gets the easiest draw possible. He will always draw Ferrer.
     
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  17. Chanwan

    Chanwan Legend

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    3,5 months! And another week. That's the time between now and RG. Nadal will likely play 6-7 clay tournaments before than and possibly IW and Miami too. He has PLENTY of time to get in shape, even if it truly is the case that he isn't now (which I expect he is). So please people - stop worrying. Rafa will be fine and - safe for whichever Nole he comes across - be the king of clay yet again.
     
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  18. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Ah, right. It was the 2011 Australian Open I was thinking of. So even more recently! Although, it didn't really matter since Murray and Soderling were drawn in the same quarter.
     
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  19. jm1980

    jm1980 Legend

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    It'll be more interesting if Nadal gets Soderling'd or Rosol'd before the QF.

    It would be a very interesting tournament from then on. Maybe we'd even see the old man try harder.
     
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  20. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Federer pushed Rafa to 4 sets on clay numerous times. Ferrer gave Nadal headaches in bof3 clay matches.

    I don't think would be easy either way especially for a guy who been away for 7 months and still has knees problems.
     
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  21. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    I suspect Djokovic will win RG without even facing Nadal there this year. I think Nadal will lose early, R16 or so.
     
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  22. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

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    If Nadal loses early, my bet will be on Federer.
     
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  23. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    The problem is it's no longer entirely in his control. If Djokovic plays his best tennis, I'm not sure it matters how well Federer plays. He could still win, of course, but I wouldn't put him as the favorite, even if Nadal makes an early exit.
     
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  24. boredone3456

    boredone3456 Legend

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    One thing is for sure...if Fed draws Nadal in the QF of RG there will be about 6 bazillion "draw is rigged" threads followed by the thud of the string of instant heart attacks of some Fed fans.
     
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  25. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    It's hard for me to have much faith in Federer after his horrendous claycourt displays against Djokovic. Damn it, I remember I canceled an important appointment just to be able to watch that RG semi and it was one of the worst Fed matches I remember watching. Of course the year before that he did good, so who knows how he does this time.
     
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  26. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I actually believe this is largely true as well.
     
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  27. malbaker86

    malbaker86 Professional

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    yea last year in Rome and RG was one of the most flat Fed performances i've ever seen in a big match against Djokovic. It was like we were all waiting for a little bit more from em and never got it
     
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  28. kalyan4fedever

    kalyan4fedever Hall of Fame

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    It is suspense every match now with feddy he either plays too good or plays totally worse
     
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  29. augustobt

    augustobt Hall of Fame

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    Sorry, but I think that you should expect that. Federer's back was really bad after he won the title in Madrid, remember that he almost skiped Rome, and in Rome he lost to djoker in straights. Then, in Roland Garros, performances losing sets for Ungur, Goffin and fought back being 2-0 down from Delpo... I knew that Nole would prevail in 3 or 4.

    Federer should get in a better shape. I know that his age is coming, but that is crucial to his game. And anyway, if Rafa is out, I think that Federer is the top contender for Roland Garros '13.
     
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  30. iriraz

    iriraz Hall of Fame

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    Last year he pretty much struggled throughout the French,not just against Djokovic.
    Also,by playing just 2 events(Rome and RG) on normal clay it`s tougher for him to get used to the conditions compared to the others who might add Monte Carlo or other 250 or 500 clay events to their schedule.
     
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  31. malbaker86

    malbaker86 Professional

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    this is true and i don't think we realize that he's played A LOT of matches in the course of his career and he's on the wrong side of 30 and still making deep runs in just about any tourney he enters. that takes a tole on you in a sport like tennis.
     
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  32. TTMR

    TTMR Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, a whole two slams; they must be rigging it. Incontrovertible proof right there. Let's go back three slams and see if the "tough draw" pattern for Federer continues--oh wait, it doesn't.

    I love the "Fed always gets tough draws" whiners because no matter what the draw is, it's always a 'cakewalk' for Nadal/Djokovic, and always a gauntlet for Federer, even if they draw the same players.

    Let's suppose the bottom of the top eight are seeded as follows: 5. Ferrer, 6. Berdych, 7. Del Potro, 8. Tsonga.

    If Djokovic draws any of the above, it's a cakewalk draw.

    If Nadal draws any of the above, it's a cakewalk draw.

    If Federer draws Berdych, Del Potro or Tsonga, it's a 'tough draw'.


    I guess Djokovic and Nadal should be blamed for Federer's slam struggles with these big hitters, that way we can attach another asterik to any champion whose given name is not Roger. God forbid anyone other than Federer ever wins anything legitimately.
     
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  33. Big_Dangerous

    Big_Dangerous Legend

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    I don't know, there's a lot of time between now and RG, and I suspect Rafa will be in terrific shape by the time RG rolls around. I don't see anyone taking him out early there. I mean he plays so well there and most players, especially the ones outside the top 5, feel like they have no chance against Rafa @RG. The guy's only ever played 1 bad match there...
     
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