Nadal on track to be #1 by end of AO 2014?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by HughJars, May 19, 2013.

  1. HughJars

    HughJars Banned

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    Do you think this is likely given that its almost a certainty he will win the FO and a stack of other tournaments during the rest of the year?
     
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  2. Strategy

    Strategy Semi-Pro

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    I hope so, but lets remember that this is his best surface and so we shouldn't overestimate him. Plus, who knows how his knees will hold up after the HC season. Let's wait and see.
     
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  3. timnz

    timnz Hall of Fame

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    Actually you have underestimated it

    It's highly likely he will be year end number 1 in 2013. I just can't see mathematically how any other player is going to stop him being that given that he has already been in 8 finals this year and he has ZERO points to defend for the second half of this year. That means that if Djokovic defends a title in the second half of the year - he will add no points to his total and Nadal if he gets to the third round of the same tournament will actually add more points than Djokovic. Everything is cream for him in the second half of the year. Because of that, it will be very very difficult for anyone to be past him as number 1 by the end of the year.
     
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  4. HughJars

    HughJars Banned

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    Will be interesting for sure. This clay season seems to have dragged for ages, and the FO hasnt even started. Clay court overkill.
     
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  5. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    FYI, there are more HC tournament than clay. If anything, some HC tournaments should be changed to grass and let us have a grass court season.
     
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  6. tkoziol

    tkoziol Rookie

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    It is kind of weird that there isn't a grass court season...
     
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  7. ledwix

    ledwix Hall of Fame

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    You keep saying this as if the race factors into the 52-week rankings, when it doesn't. If Djokovic wins a title and Nadal makes the third round, Nadal will be falling behind in the race to #1. Nadal needs to be #1 after RG to have a chance at year-end #1. Otherwise he'll be having to play catch-up on his worst surfaces that Djokovic has the advantage on. Part of why Nadal hasn't been able to hold onto the #1 ranking for long is because his success is disproportionately stacked in a three-month span.
     
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  8. timnz

    timnz Hall of Fame

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    I am not talking of the race. I am talking of the 52 week ranking cycle. Nadal in the second half of the year will be taking huge advantage of the fact in the 52 week cycle there is nothing to defend. Maybe an example is in order. Last year djokovic got to the final of the us open. Now if this year he only gets to the semi finals - will his 52 week ranking accumumulated points go up or down? Down of course. Now if Nadal is in the same tournament and goes out in the third round...will his 52 week ranking points go up or down? Up of course. Because last year he got no points. Nothing to defend. And this will happen continually later this year.......in every tournament that Djokovic and Nadal compete in, if djokovic doesn't do bettter than he did last year, then Nadal will move up the 52 week rankings if he gets past the first round. This means that Nadal will be just going up and up the rankings. Can't see how Djokovic can stop this really. He has to defend canada and cincinatti finals and us open finals and wtf win. What does nadal have to defend? Nothing.The fact is that right now on the 52 week cycle rafa is as high as fifth and he basically has (not including last years french open) has got to 5th from only 1/2 a years play. Again I am meaning 5th in the 52 week rankings. Now imagine that Nadal now doubles his current points.....is any other player going to double their current 52 week points, do you think?
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2013
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  9. iriraz

    iriraz Hall of Fame

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    Does it really matter if Nadal will be nr.1 by the end of January next year.I think the real goal for any top player is to finish the year nr.1.All the other calculations,if he is nr.1 or 2 or 4 in the early part of the season is not important.
    Regarding this season it`s really close in the race between Nadal and Djokovic.So it will be interesting to see if Nadal will do the whole hardcourt-season and try to finish ahead in the rankings cause i doubt Djokovic will skip any hardcourt Masters Events.
     
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  10. dr325i

    dr325i Legend

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    He is overdoing it right now. If he is really chasing it all this year, his knees will give out. He simply should have not allowed that to happen in the first place and I am afraid he may do it again. However, this time, there would be no come back.

    I like him, I think he is great for the sport, I hate his boring game, and I am curious to see him during the non-clay tournaments...
     
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  11. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

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    He isn't going to keep the current level of winning up, that is for sure. He will pick and choose his tournaments after Wimbledon IMO and never does well in the far east or at the world tour finals.
     
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  12. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    We'll see, it's possible, even if Nadal lose AO 2014 final vs Djokovic, he will add 1200 points.

    But I'm pretty sure that Djokovic will be YE#1 in 2013...
     
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  13. FreeBird

    FreeBird Legend

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    Are you new to tennis? If not better see how ranking works. Djoker is only 700 points behind Nadal in year race.
     
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  14. Skarter

    Skarter New User

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    What.......?:-?
     
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  15. mattennis

    mattennis Hall of Fame

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    Don't know if you are serious...

    Djokovic is right now 690 points behind Nadal in the 2013 Race. Djokovic only has to make 700 more points than Nadal from here to the end of the year (which is more than likely) to be Year-End-Nº1.

    What happened in 2012 has no bearing on who will be 2013 Year-End-Nº1 (except for the seeding in tournaments).
     
    #15
  16. mattennis

    mattennis Hall of Fame

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    Just an example to make it easier to grasp:

    Imagine from now on to the end of the year, both Nadal and Djokovic play the same tournaments and both lose in the SF of every tournament, except for the US OPEN that Djokovic wins and Nadal is runner-up.

    In this hypothetical scenario, Djokovic would be 2013 Year-End-Nº1.
     
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  17. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

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    Nadal ain't winning anything after the US Open.

    Novak will be our true No.1 for some time.

    8)
     
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  18. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    No, he won't. He's a transitional #1.
     
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  19. President

    President Legend

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    Lol, better to make this thread at least after RG and Wimbledon if not after the USO. We are still in the midst of clay season, you could make this thread every year basically because Nadal has probably almost always been the points leader after RG for the past few years.
     
    #19
  20. spinovic

    spinovic Hall of Fame

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    It doesn't matter which one you're talking about - because of missing Oz (2013) and the WTF (2012), Nadal is behind the eight ball in trying to pass Djoker for the #1 spot. That is 3500 points Djokovic has that Nadal has to try to make up.

    With all those great results over two months - he still has just a little over half as many points as Djokovic right now. Or, consider that some sub-par results through the first 7 tournaments of 2013 has resulted in a net loss of only 780 points for Djokovic vs. that same span in 2012. Points lost = 910 (Miami), 170 (Madrid), 420 (Rome) - Points gained = 320 (Dubai), 400 (Monte Carlo).

    Any single tournament doesn't matter much - it is the net gain/loss over the season. For example, if Djokovic wins any one of the remaining slams, he gains a minimum of 800 points (1280 at Wimbledon). That gain would offset a bad result or two elsewhere.

    And, the thread also has to operate on the iffy probability that Nadal is going to continue his torrid pace once the tour shifts to grass and hard courts where he isn't as strong.

    His performance since returning has made it possible, but it is still a longshot. And, it goes without saying that he has to win Roland Garros. He cannot afford to lose those points - and should Djokovic win the French Open, it moves from improbable to impossible (barring an injury).
     
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  21. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Nadal is never getting back to #1 for the rest of his career. People need to stop jumping the gun just because Nadal won a couple of lead ups going into RG. It's ridiculous.
     
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  22. Mustard

    Mustard Talk Tennis Guru

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    The grass-court season is a 4-5 week period after the French Open. In 2015, Wimbledon is being moved back a week to accomodate an extra week for the grass-court season.
     
    #22

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