Now that Ferrer has reached the semis of the Australian Open, going at least 1 round further than last year, he has built up a lead of over 1400 points over Nadal (see http://live-tennis.eu/). Between the AO and the French Open last year Nadal won all the large clay tournaments other than Madrid, and did pretty well in the two hardcourt MS1000s: semis in IW & Miami. So there is little he can gain up to and including the French Open. Maybe some of the smaller clay tournaments, but if anything it's more likely he will struggle a bit more than last year, after such a long time off. Ferrer had mixed results over the clay season last year, with wins in the smaller tournaments, but some early losses in the bigger ones. So overall, there is a strong possibility that going in to the French Open, Nadal could be the #5 seed. The same could be said for Wimbledon, as the formula used for the grass rankings will give them about the same amount each. This means one of the following: 1 in 4 chance that Nadal will fall in Ferrer's quarter, effectively giving Nadal his own quarter, as people would expect. 3 in 4 chance that he will fall in Djokovic's, Federer's or Murray's quarter, and face them in the QFs. This means a relatively early loss for either Nadal or one of the top three. I know not everyone likes talk of stats and rankings, but I thought this was interesting as it means a bit of an upset compared to the way things have been over the past few years.