Nadal's Ranking

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by Cosmic_Colin, Jan 22, 2013.

  1. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    Now that Ferrer has reached the semis of the Australian Open, going at least 1 round further than last year, he has built up a lead of over 1400 points over Nadal (see http://live-tennis.eu/).

    Between the AO and the French Open last year Nadal won all the large clay tournaments other than Madrid, and did pretty well in the two hardcourt MS1000s: semis in IW & Miami.

    So there is little he can gain up to and including the French Open. Maybe some of the smaller clay tournaments, but if anything it's more likely he will struggle a bit more than last year, after such a long time off.

    Ferrer had mixed results over the clay season last year, with wins in the smaller tournaments, but some early losses in the bigger ones.

    So overall, there is a strong possibility that going in to the French Open, Nadal could be the #5 seed. The same could be said for Wimbledon, as the formula used for the grass rankings will give them about the same amount each.

    This means one of the following:

    1 in 4 chance that Nadal will fall in Ferrer's quarter, effectively giving Nadal his own quarter, as people would expect.

    3 in 4 chance that he will fall in Djokovic's, Federer's or Murray's quarter, and face them in the QFs. This means a relatively early loss for either Nadal or one of the top three.

    I know not everyone likes talk of stats and rankings, but I thought this was interesting as it means a bit of an upset compared to the way things have been over the past few years.
     
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  2. RajFederer

    RajFederer Semi-Pro

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    Djokovic or federer facing nadal in QF is literally losing hope of winning RG

    Nadal sure gonna get 5 seed.. And either djokovic or Murray or federer gonna receive severe beating in QF
     
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  3. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    This is interesting.

    You don't have to look at the FO only. Think about all the big tournaments in which Nadal could land in Federer's, Djokovic's or Murray's quarter - Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome, the French Open, probably even Wimbledon. In every each of those tournaments there will be a 75% chance of him landing in the quarter of one of the top 3.

    He will only start to gain some ground in the summer hard court season. That of course assuming he defends most of his points from 2012. If he does anything else, Ferrer will capitalize. Just look at the last few majors - reached the SF of the French after beating Murray, then after Nadal withdrew from the US and Australian Open Ferrer reached the SF of both.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2013
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  4. NadalDramaQueen

    NadalDramaQueen Hall of Fame

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    Sure, but then Nadal could possibly have to beat all three of them in order to win. If he has to go through Fed and Murray before taking on Djoker that is going to be a tough ask with the long layoff.

    Moral of the story: If the other three join forces and take advantage of a weakened Nadal, maybe someone else can win the French Open.
     
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  5. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    Yeah, at all the MS1000s* we'll either see an early loss for one of the top guys, or Nadal going out early (on clay?!).

    This also means that someone could get Nadal-Murray-Djokovic/Federer in the last three rounds of a tournament!

    *(I wouldn't say smaller tournaments, because chances are one of the top 4 would be absent, meaning he'd be seeded #4)
     
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  6. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    Yeah, one way of looking at it is to imagine Fed's draw right now at the AO, but replace Tsonga with Nadal. Nadal-Murray-Djokovic for Federer, or Federer-Murray-Djokovic for Nadal, it would be a nightmare for either of them.

    It could just as easily happen on Djokovic's side, too. He could have Nadal as his QF and Murray as his SF, whilst Fed has Tipsarevic and Ferrer.
     
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  8. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    The draw really doesn't matter at the French for Nadal. If he is fit, he will win it.
     
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  9. iriraz

    iriraz Hall of Fame

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    For Nadal maybe not.But certainly for the opponents.If they lose in the quarters or semis/final makes a big difference.
     
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  10. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    That, yes.
     
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  11. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    There's a 50/50 chance that he would have to play each of the big 3 back-to-back. Even he would struggle with that, especially if he's still a bit rusty.

    Also outside of clay, there's Wimbledon, Indian Wells, Miami...
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2013
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  12. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    He is scheduled to play the 3 events of the winter clay swing (Sao Paulo, Chile, Acapulco). On top of the regular clay season. That's a lot of events. By the time RG comes, he won't be rusty. + what do you call the big 3? Neither Ferrer nor Murray will give him a sweat on clay. Fed is just too good of a matchup on clay for him even more so in a 5 setter. That leaves Djoko who would be a threat for Rafa in any round anyway.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2013
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  13. NadalDramaQueen

    NadalDramaQueen Hall of Fame

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    Wouldn't it be a 1 in 2 chance he would have to play all three (assuming the seeds win what they should)?

    You would have the big three with Ferrer as the top four seeds. One half will contain two of the big three and the other would have the last member along with Ferrer.

    If Nadal lands in the same half as Ferrer, then he would only have to beat two of the top three. This would happen if he played Ferrer or the sole member of the big three in that half in the quarters.

    However, if he lands in the half without Ferrer, then he would have to play all three.
     
    #13
  14. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    Yes sorry, my mistake. I was thinking he had to be in Murray's quarter for some reason.
     
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  15. firepanda

    firepanda Professional

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    The other possibility is the they will just give him first seed, regardless of ranking. I wouldn't blame them, given his record.
     
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  16. Speranza

    Speranza Hall of Fame

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    Normally, in this matter, I'd agree with you. But not this year, fit or not.
     
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  17. Alchemy-Z

    Alchemy-Z Hall of Fame

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    I never understood why the champion from the year before in every slam does not get #1 seeding in the following year despite the points race.
     
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  18. Netspirit

    Netspirit Hall of Fame

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    I would only count clay or grass points when seeding for RG and Wimbledon.
     
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  19. Agassifan

    Agassifan Hall of Fame

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    Thank God for Rafa he won't be seeded 5th at Wimbledon because of their quirky ways.
     
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  20. Djokodal Fan

    Djokodal Fan Professional

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    Only the big 3 will be in trouble facing Nadal @ French open.

    I hope he doesn't land in Djoker's quarter.

    I have this strange feeling that will fix the draw and put Nadal in Ferrer's quarter so that they have have top4 until the semis.

    Losing 1 of top 4 before semis will bring down TV ratings. So my guess is Nadal's quarter will be intact with his favorite Lapdog Ferrer!
     
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  21. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

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    I don't really think the Wimbledon ranking formula will make a big difference. I understand that the formula is the sum of the following:

    • Current ranking pts
    • 100% of grass points last year
    • 75% of best grass result from the year before

    Nadal 2012 - 90 (45 Wimbledon, 45 Halle) * 1 = 90pts
    Nadal 2011 - 1200 (Wimbledon Finalist is best result) * 0.75 = 900pts
    Nadal grass bonus = 990pts

    Ferrer 2012 - 700 (250 s-Hertogenbosch, 360 Wimbledon, 70 Olympics) * 1 = 700pts
    Ferrer 2011 180 (Wimbledon R16 is best result) * 0.75 = 135pts
    Ferrer grass bonus = 835pts

    Not sure if the Olympics is actually counted, but it's pretty close anyway.
     
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  22. PrinceMoron

    PrinceMoron Hall of Fame

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    Nadal has disappeared from the AO app. Ready to play? Seemed a bit strange his being there in the first place.
     
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  23. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Hopefully he can gain some points in SA, and at least defend MC and Rome. He has no chance at winning RG, but after that he has a totally clean slate with nothing but points to gain for the rest of the year.
     
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  24. Ico

    Ico Hall of Fame

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    This assumes he makes it to the QFs. Or even plays the tournament.
     
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  25. smoledman

    smoledman Legend

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    Nadal will win the FO with his eyes closed and in a wheelchair.
     
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  26. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    (Mild) Optimism from Clarky!? :shock::shock::shock:
     
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  27. tennis_badger

    tennis_badger Rookie

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    its an interesing prospect, nadal faces the big 3 in QF.
    having said that, can he get there?? need to see how well he plays when he get back
     
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  28. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

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    shocking isn't it? haha.It will disappear when those events start thouh,no matter how well he plays.
     
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  29. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I don't think I was being optimistic; I was just telling the truth. He has very few points to defend at Wimby and none at all for the rest of the year afterwards. He can only gain points from then on out. He can also lose points as well if he stinks it up during the clay season so being able to gain points may not matter anyway.

    And he is not winning a slam this year, either. Not unless Lance, Fed, and Murray all cease to exist.
     
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  30. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    I thought he was whining about Nadal being retired until a few days ago? To be "hopeful" about Nadal defending Rome and MC is a huge step forward. Thank God, the cheeriness of this forum has gone 235847464 notches up.
     
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  31. BigForehand

    BigForehand Semi-Pro

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    You can't talk about "chance" when the draws are rigged and not "random" at all as it has been proven time and time again.
     
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