Odds of Federer winning the French Open

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by dh003i, May 27, 2006.

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What is the probability of Federer winning the French Open?

  1. 90%

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  2. 80%

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  3. 70%

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  4. 60%

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  5. 50%

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  6. 40%

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  7. 30%

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  8. 20%

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  9. 10%

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    0.0%
  10. 0%

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    0.0%
  1. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    Vote on the probability with which you think Federer would win the French Open over Nadal, assuming both get to the final.

    Because only 10 options, there is no 100% (I doubt anyone would vote for it anyways).
     
    #1
  2. DRtenniS1112

    DRtenniS1112 Semi-Pro

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    50% says he does
    50% says he doesn't
     
    #2
  3. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    wow, you're quick! ;-)

    I assume the text of the post posted before I finished the poll. Vote on the poll too.
     
    #3
  4. DRtenniS1112

    DRtenniS1112 Semi-Pro

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    haha sure did
     
    #4
  5. malakas

    malakas Banned

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    I believe 40% Federer and 60% Nadal.I am afraid that maybe Nadal has the mental edge on Roger right now.And Nadal's moral must be so much high whereas Roger will be so much anxious to win the French and complete the calendar Slam.But I believe that Roger is almost equal to Nadal on clay now..But what I know..
     
    #5
  6. jhhachamp

    jhhachamp Hall of Fame

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    Fed has a 35% chance of winning and Nadal has a 55% chance. The rest of the field has a 10% chance.
     
    #6
  7. welcome2petrkordaland

    welcome2petrkordaland Semi-Pro

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    i'll be shocked if someone besides fed or nadal wins the french. to my mind they're simply that much ahead of the field on clay. anything can happen, though, esp. in paris.
     
    #7
  8. cool_sport23

    cool_sport23 Guest

    Federer cant win the french unless he improves his mental game especially against nadal.:cool:
     
    #8
  9. welcome2petrkordaland

    welcome2petrkordaland Semi-Pro

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    yeah, cool_sport23, if they do meet up, i tend to agree with you there. like jim courier says, nadal's in fed's head to an extent. anyone who witnessed both the second and fifth set tiebreaks in the rome final should be able to attest to that. fed was up 4-2 in the 2nd set tiebreaker and hit some wild forehands and ended up losing it. then he was up 4-1 in the 5th set tiebreak and hit two awful forehands, not to mention having double championship point against nadal. i don't want to beat this dead horse, but that, my friends, is called mental.

    having said that, fed's still arguably the best to ever hold a racket and is, in my opinion, due to beat nadal, but on clay it will be tougher than on a faster surface (like a faster hard court-us open- or of course the grass.)
     
    #9
  10. raftermania

    raftermania Banned

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    500% chance.
     
    #10
  11. wyutani

    wyutani Hall of Fame

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    odd of fed winning the frenchy is the same as nadal winning wimbledon...
     
    #11
  12. welcome2petrkordaland

    welcome2petrkordaland Semi-Pro

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    I couldn't disagree more (although i'm also left-handed and have a one-handed bh).
     
    #12
  13. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

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    If this is the case Fed's chances are way better at the French then Nadal's at Wimby. Think about it this way. Say Nadal loses or has to pull out at the French. If that happens Fed is clearly the favorite then. If Fed pulled out at Wimby how many other players would still be favored to beat Nadal? A bunch. i.e. ref. Ivo Karlovic vs. Nadal on grass as just one example.

    2006 French Open - Mens - Odds to Win (All Bets Action)

    Rafael Nadal 6-5
    Roger Federer 9-5
    David Nalbandian 20-1
    Gaston Gaudio 20-1
    Marat Safin 25-1
    Richard Gasquet 25-1
    Guillermo Coria 30-1
    David Ferrer 30-1
    Juan Carlos Ferrero 30-1
    Fernando Gonzalez 30-1
    Nikolay Davydenko 40-1
    Nicolas Almagro 40-1
    Carlos Moya 60-1
    Andrew Murray 60-1
    Tommy Robredo 60-1
    Ivan Ljubicic 60-1
    Marcos Baghdatis 100-1
    Lleyton Hewitt 100-1
    Field (Any other Player) 4-1 See this Pusher Terminator? Do you know what that means about your silly prediction?
     
    #13
  14. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

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    He has a 50% chance.
    He wins it, or he doesn't :mrgreen:
     
    #14
  15. brucie

    brucie Professional

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    Me TOO! :p
     
    #15
  16. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    That's gotta be the dumbest thing I've ever heard on this board, outside of Nadal-girl's rants. Federer is 2nd favorite to win French. Nadal is a favorite to crash out of Wimbledon in the early rounds.
     
    #16
  17. welcome2petrkordaland

    welcome2petrkordaland Semi-Pro

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    dh00, don't think you got what i said. i strongly disagreed with the idea of fed's chances to win rg as being the same as rafa's to win at wimbledon. fed's obviously got a nice shot at rg whereas nadal clearly hasn't shown much on the grass. where did you get lost in the translation? got literacy?

    and don't compare me to that nadalgirl, please.
     
    #17
  18. arosen

    arosen Hall of Fame

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    At the French, it's up to Rafa to decide who wins it. So if Rafa fails before the final, Fed's chances are up big time. Otherwise, its a coin toss.
     
    #18
  19. jackson vile

    jackson vile Legend

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    Looks like many people don't know what odds are or logical thinking:rolleyes:
     
    #19
  20. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    That's gotta be the dumbest thing I've ever heard on this board, outside of Nadal-girl's rants. Federer is 2nd favorite to win French. Nadal is a favorite to crash out of Wimbledon in the early rounds.
     
    #20
  21. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    welcom2ptrkordaland,

    My apologies, I meant to quote the other guy, but accidentally clicked on quoting you. I don't know how I didn't notice that.

    Your post was actually the reasonable response to an insane suggestion by wyd. that Fed has same chance of winning French as Nadal of winning Wimbledon.

    Again, my apologies.
     
    #21
  22. pound cat

    pound cat G.O.A.T.

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    If anyone was following his match to-day v. Diego Hartfield (yeah, who?) they would be thinking that it would be very odd if Federer won Roland Garros. Very odd indeed.
     
    #22
  23. ACE of Hearts

    ACE of Hearts G.O.A.T.

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    If Fed doesnt trash Gimelstob or Calla, i will be surprised, when he plays bad, he plays very well the next match.
     
    #23
  24. siber222000

    siber222000 Semi-Pro

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    today federer had a tough time against that qualifier, but i think he'll do good... and theres going to be a chance that blake or hewitt (since they haven't lost to nadal yet) might beat nadal so it'll be pretty interesting...
     
    #24
  25. Max G.

    Max G. Hall of Fame

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    I don't think Blake or Hewitt will make it far enough to play Nadal. They're not claycourters, they'll be lucky to get out of the first week.
     
    #25
  26. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    pound cat,

    So what? Federer won, in straight sets. And started playing some better tennis in the last set.

    Federer started out the Australlian Open pretty cold too. Hmm, we know how that ended...

    The way Federer has played on clay this year, it would take a minor miracle for him not to make the finals.
     
    #26
  27. jings

    jings Professional

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    This is true. Also, lets not forget that this was a guy Federer had about 5 minutes to prep for. Never seen him play and no idea what he did on court. First round on the Sunday when he's said he didn't want to play, on a hell windy day and a court that was very two paced for the match. This was a game that Federer would have lost a couple of years ago - but instead was unphased at how he started and ended up cruising. I thought quite the reverse actually Pound Cat, thought it was a very pro performance when he could have got all stroppy and "I'm #1 and wtf am I doing here on a Sunday getting shown up by the world #157 for most of the first set". Most guys would have had trouble with Hartfield for the first set. He was 15 of his last 16 on the challengers and it showed - he was hitting it clean and true.
     
    #27
  28. federerhoogenbandfan

    federerhoogenbandfan Banned

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    0% chance. I really hope Roger makes it to the semis or finals, I will be thrilled with that. As winning the French is not a possability a semi or final showing will be excellent.
     
    #28
  29. welcome2petrkordaland

    welcome2petrkordaland Semi-Pro

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    dh003, yeah, my apologies as well. i was a bit sarcastic in my response. i think with this forum (and i have been guilty of this), it's necessary to indicate the person to whom you're replying. otherwise, there
    'll be a lot of crazy communication failures like this one.

    yeah, nadal's got a lot of work to do both on faster hard court surfaces like the us open as well as on the grass. his style will translate well to australia though,i think due to the higher bounces of rebound ace down under.

    and i definitely don't put head-to-head above wins on various surface, points, majors, and masters series. federer's the best in the world hands down. that nadal's about to turn 20 is scary, though.
     
    #29

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