Peak level of play (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic & Co.)

Discussion in 'Former Pro Player Talk' started by krosero, Jan 5, 2013.

  1. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    Basically yes, there are some issues with rounding, and I'll give you more exact numbers in another post (I've done some fine-tuning as I found some AM's based on incomplete matches).

    But yes your numbers and breakdown are basically correct.

    One thing I have to caution about, however, is that the 77%-70% is a truer comparison of the styles used in these matches, rather than the 57%-43%, because the latter only takes a snapshot of the "top" of the cone, so to speak, where the difference between the two styles looks more pronounced.

    Nevertheless it's interesting to break down everything the way you did and see just how many matches were won exclusively in one way (making fewer UE's) and how many were won exclusively the other way (making greater number of forcing plays).

    I've done some further sorting of the data and I think with relative ease I can get a list of the matches that were won ONLY with fewer UE's, and another list of the matches won ONLY with more forcing plays.

    Looking at my list chronologically, there is no real bias in either column through most of the matches from 1969 through the Sampras era. However as I scroll down into the current era I am already seeing large blocks of Federer matches in the column of matches won exclusively through forcing plays. So that may be where the bias is: because I've done so many Federer matches.

    You can see it in my opening post of this thread: my list of Federer matches is the longest one.

    I'll get you more exact info on this.

    For now let me add: just like you, I don't see why the two styles (aggressive and conservative) necessarily have to even out as equally effective methods of winning matches. Theoretically it's possible that the aggressive style is in fact more effective; and theoretically the conservative style may be more effective.

    This is all really interesting, your breakdown of the AM's into UE's and Forcing Plays has opened up a whole other way of looking at this.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2013
  2. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    I'm missing the reference, what did Kramer say about this?
     
  3. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    I think surface selection must also play a big role in this. Notice that of the 7 Nadal finals I examined on that other thread, only 2 of them show UEs as the exclusive deciding factor, and these happen to be the only 2 matches that were played on clay in that group of finals.

    I suspect if one were to take a large sample of randomly selected matches and classify them by surface, the gaps we are seeing in favor of forced plays (77-70 overall, or 57-43 in matches won exclusively by one of the two methods) should grow larger in clearly faster surfaces, smaller in slower ones, and could very well be reversed on clay in favor of the UE element.

    If that proved to be true (so far it’s only speculation on my part) and if such numbers were known for all the matches played in each tournament year by year, it could be another proxy indicator of surface speeds in different tournaments relative to one another.

    Maybe in the future, if the ATP keeps sorting and entering match statistics into their databases, and if they dedicate enough funding to a good statistics department, these kinds of analysis could be easily performed by automated means. So far the only way to do these things is by patient examination of data by hand. One can only dream of what could be done if all these numbers were known and easily obtainable.
     
  4. NatF

    NatF G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    14,347
    Location:
    On the road from would of to would have
    Is there a place to get the winners/unforced errors stats for past matches? I know you guys count them up alot yourselves. Or better yet, full stats including 1st serve percentage etc...

    I'm curious about what Djokovic's best US Open performances were in the semi's and finals. Obviously the AM's up but I'd like to know the specifics.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2013
  5. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    For the USO:

    http://2012.usopen.org/en_US/scores/extrastats/index.html?promo=subnav

    You can change the number to 2011 on the link to get that year's stats. They don't seem to keep anything older than two years, which is a pity. Or maybe they keep it somewhere else.
     
  6. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    That's a shame.

    here are some other matches of his I calculated(ue's from tv stats or press)

    2002 Toronto
    Sampras 33%
    Haas 32%

    2002 USO
    Sampras 25%
    Portas 8%

    came across ue's on these matches, but don't have total points won by either player(assume atp stats are wrong) so can't calculate AM's

    1997 USO
    Sampras - 66 ue's
    Korda - 45 ue's

    1995 French Open
    Sampras - 99 ue's
    Schaller - 41 ue's

    1993 USO
    Sampras - 23 ue's
    Pioline - 45 ue's

    1995 AO
    Sampras - 45 ue's
    Larsson - 50 ue's

    1993 French Open
    Sampras - 60 ue's
    Bruguera - 24 ue's

    1998 USO
    Sampras - 57 ue's
    Goldstein - 19 ue's

    2000 USO
    Sampras - 19 ue's
    Krajicek - 16 ue's

    1998 Masters SF
    Sampras - 50 ue's
    Corretja - 19 ue's

    1997 AO
    Sampras - 22 ue's
    Moya - 18 ue's
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2013
  7. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    This is what I've got now (not yet incorporating any new matches from Moose's post above).

    417 men's matches

    324 matches (78%) in which the winner made more forcing plays
    291 matches (70%) in which the winner made fewer UE's

    200 matches (48%) in which the winner did both things (made more forcing plays, fewer UE's)

    91 matches (22%) were won ONLY by making fewer UE's
    124 matches (30%) were won ONLY by making more forcing plays

    (There were 2 additional matches in a unique category: the winner made more UE's than the loser AND made fewer forcing plays: Safin-Federer at 2005 AO, and Isner-Mahut)

    These are the matches in which the winner ONLY made fewer UE's and did not have an edge in forcing plays:

    1979 RG final Borg d. Pecci
    1983 W SF Lewis d. Curren
    1988 AO final Wilander d. Cash
    1988 USO final Wilander d. Lendl
    1991 USO QF Courier d. Sampras
    1992 W final Agassi d. Ivanisevic
    1993 RG final Bruguera d. Courier
    1993 USO final Sampras d. Pioline
    1994 USO final Agassi d. Stich
    1995 AO final Agassi d. Sampras
    1996 AO SF Chang d. Agassi
    1997 USO R16 Korda d. Sampras
    1999 Masters RR Agassi d. Sampras
    1999 Miami QF Krajicek d. Sampras
    1999 RG final Agassi d. Medvedev
    1999 USO final Agassi d. Martin
    2000 AO final Agassi d. Kafelnikov
    2000 AO SF Agassi d. Sampras
    2000 Masters RR Hewitt d. Sampras
    2000 RG final Kuerten d. Norman
    2000 W QF Agassi d. Philippoussis
    2001 IW final Agassi d. Sampras
    2001 USO final Hewitt d. Sampras
    2003 AO QF Roddick d. El Aynaoui
    2003 USO R16 Nalbandian d. Federer
    2003 W R16 Federer d. F. Lopez
    2004 RG R128 Santoro d. Clement
    2005 AO R32 Agassi d. Dent
    2005 AO R16 Agassi d. Johansson
    2005 AO SF Hewitt d. Roddick
    2005 Madrid final Nadal d. Ljubicic
    2005 RG final Nadal d. Puerta
    2005 RG R32 Nadal d. Gasquet
    2005 RG SF Nadal d. Federer
    2006 MC final Nadal d. Federer
    2006 RG final Nadal d. Federer
    2006 Rome final Nadal d. Federer
    2006 USO R64 Agassi d. Baghdatis
    2006 W R64 Nadal d. Kendrick
    2007 AO R16 Nadal d. Murray
    2007 Madrid final Nalbandian d. Federer
    2007 MC final Nadal d. Federer
    2007 RG final Nadal d. Federer
    2007 RG R32 Nadal d. Montanes
    2007 RG SF Federer d. Davydenko
    2007 Rome SF Nadal d. Davydenko
    2007 USO R32 Federer d. Isner
    2007 W R32 Nadal d. Soderling
    2008 AO R32 Nadal d. Simon
    2008 Hamburg final Nadal d. Federer
    2008 MC final Nadal d. Federer
    2008 Miami QF Nadal d. Blake
    2008 W final Nadal d. Federer
    2008 W R64 Nadal d. Gulbis
    2009 AO final Nadal d. Federer
    2009 AO SF Nadal d. Verdasco
    2009 RG SF Federer d. Del Potro
    2009 USO QF Nadal d. Gonzalez
    2009 W QF Roddick d. Hewitt
    2009 W R16 Federer d. Soderling
    2010 Madrid final Nadal d. Federer
    2010 RG final Nadal d. Soderling
    2010 USO SF Djokovic d. Federer
    2010 W QF Nadal d. Soderling
    2010 W R32 Nadal d. Petzschner
    2010 W R64 Federer d. Bozoljac
    2011 AO SF Djokovic d. Federer
    2011 Miami SF Nadal d. Federer
    2011 RG final Nadal d. Federer
    2011 RG QF Nadal d. Soderling
    2011 RG R128 Nadal d. Isner
    2011 USO QF Murray d. Isner
    2011 USO SF Djokovic d. Federer
    2011 USO SF Nadal d. Murray
    2011 W R16 Nadal d. Del Potro
    2011 W R32 Nadal d. Muller
    2011 W SF Nadal d. Murray
    2012 AO QF Nadal d. Berdych
    2012 AO R32 Federer d. Karlovic
    2012 AO R64 Nadal d. Haas
    2012 AO SF Nadal d. Federer
    2012 RG final Nadal d. Djokovic
    2012 RG quarter Djokovic d. Tsonga
    2012 RG SF Djokovic d. Federer
    2012 Rome final Nadal d. Djokovic
    2012 Shanghai final Djokovic d. Murray
    2012 TMC final Djokovic d. Federer
    2012 USO final Murray d. Djokovic
    2012 USO QF Berdych d. Federer
    2013 AO QF Federer d. Tsonga
    2013 IW SF Del Potro d. Djokovic


    These are the matches in which the winner ONLY had an edge in forcing plays and did not make fewer UE's:

    1978 Masters final McEnroe d. Ashe
    1983 USO final Connors d. Lendl
    1987 USO final Lendl d. Wilander
    1989 TMC final Edberg d. Becker
    1989 USO final Becker d. Lendl
    1989 USO, R64 Sampras d. Wilander
    1990 USO final Sampras d. Agassi
    1991 USO R16 Connors d. Krickstein
    1992 USO SF Edberg d. Chang
    1992 W QF Sampras d. Stich
    1994 USO R16 Yzaga d. Sampras
    1995 Davis Cup Sampras d. Chesnokov
    1995 USO final Sampras d. Agassi
    1996 AO, R32 Philippoussis d. Sampras
    1996 USO final Sampras d. Chang
    1996 USO QF Sampras d. Corretja
    1997 AO final Sampras d. Moya
    1997 RG final Kuerten d. Bruguera
    2000 USO QF Sampras d. Krajicek
    2000 USO R64 Clement d. Agassi
    2000 USO SF Sampras d. Hewitt
    2000 W final Sampras d. Rafter
    2001 AO R128 Sampras d. Kucera
    2001 USO QF Sampras d. Agassi
    2001 W final Ivanisevic d. Rafter
    2001 W SF Rafter d. Agassi
    2002 USO final Sampras d. Agassi
    2002 USO SF Agassi d. Hewitt
    2003 USO SF Roddick d. Nalbandian
    2003 W R16 Philippoussis d. Agassi
    2003 W R64 Roddick d. Rusedski
    2003 W SF Federer d. Roddick
    2004 AO QF Federer d. Nalbandian
    2004 AO R16 Federer d. Hewitt
    2004 AO R32 Hewitt d. Nadal
    2004 AO SF Federer d. Ferrero
    2004 AO SF Safin d. Agassi
    2004 RG final Gaudio d. Coria
    2004 RG R64 Safin d. Mantilla
    2004 USO final Federer d. Hewitt
    2004 USO QF Federer d. Agassi
    2004 USO QF Johansson d. Roddick
    2004 USO R32 Federer d. Santoro
    2004 W QF Federer d. Hewitt
    2004 W SF Federer d. Grosjean
    2005 AO final Safin d. Hewitt
    2005 AO QF Federer d. Agassi
    2005 AO R16 Hewitt d. Nadal
    2005 AO, R128 Federer d. Santoro
    2005 RG R16 Federer d. Moya
    2005 USO final Federer d. Agassi
    2005 USO QF Agassi d. Blake
    2005 USO SF Federer d. Hewitt
    2005 USO, R64 Federer d. Santoro
    2005 W R16 Federer d. Ferrero
    2005 W R32 Roddick d. Andreev
    2006 AO final Federer d. Baghdatis
    2006 AO QF Federer d. Davydenko
    2006 Miami final Federer d. Nadal
    2006 TMC SF Federer d. Nadal
    2006 W R128 Federer d. Gasquet
    2006 W final Federer d. Nadal
    2006 W QF Federer d. Ancic
    2006 W QF Nadal d. Nieminen
    2006 W SF Federer d. Hewitt
    2007 Macau Sampras d. Federer
    2007 RG R64 Nadal d. Cipolla
    2007 TMC SF Federer d. Nadal
    2007 W final Federer d. Nadal
    2007 W QF Federer d. Ferrero
    2007 W QF Gasquet d. Roddick
    2007 W R16 Djokovic d. Hewitt
    2007 W SF Federer d. Gasquet
    2008 AO SF Djokovic d. Federer
    2008 AO SF Tsonga d. Nadal
    2008 AO, R128 Federer d. Santoro
    2008 AO, R32 Federer d. Tipsarevic
    2008 AO, R32 Kohlschreiber d. Roddick
    2008 USO final Federer d. Murray
    2008 USO SF Murray d. Nadal
    2008 W QF Murray d. Gasquet
    2008 W R16 Federer d. Hewitt
    2009 AO R64 Nadal d. Karanusic
    2009 Madrid final Federer d. Nadal
    2009 Madrid SF Nadal d. Djokovic
    2009 RG final Federer d. Soderling
    2009 RG R16 Federer d. Haas
    2009 RG R16 Soderling d. Nadal
    2009 USO R32 Federer d. Hewitt
    2009 USO SF Del Potro d. Nadal
    2009 USO SF Federer d. Djokovic
    2009 W final Federer d. Roddick
    2009 W R32 Federer d. Kohlschreiber
    2009 W SF Roddick d. Murray
    2010 AO final Federer d. Murray
    2010 AO R16 Federer d. Hewitt
    2010 RG QF Soderling d. Federer
    2010 TMC final Federer d. Nadal
    2010 W final Nadal d. Berdych
    2010 W QF Berdych d. Federer
    2010 W R128 Federer d. Falla
    2010 W R16 Djokovic d. Hewitt
    2011 Davis Cup Federer d. Hewitt
    2011 Miami final Djokovic d. Nadal
    2011 RG SF Federer d. Djokovic
    2011 Rome final Djokovic d. Nadal
    2011 TMC RR Federer d. Nadal
    2011 USO final Djokovic d. Nadal
    2011 W QF Tsonga d. Federer
    2011 W R128 Federer d. Kukushkin
    2011 W R16 Federer d. Youzhny
    2011 W R32 Federer d. Nalbandian
    2011 W R64 Federer d. A. Mannarino
    2012 Davis Cup Isner d. Federer
    2012 IW semifinal Federer d. Nadal
    2012 Olympics Djokovic d. Hewitt
    2012 Olympics SF Federer d. Del Potro
    2012 Olympics SF Murray d. Djokovic
    2012 RG QF Federer d. Del Potro
    2012 W quarterfinal, Murray d. Ferrer
    2012 W final Federer d. Murray
    2012 W R64 Rosol d. Nadal
    2013 AO final Djokovic d. Murray
    2013 AO R64 Federer d. Davydenko

    There is a bias here toward the aggressive style because I've done more matches for Federer than for Nadal.

    In the first list there are 30 Federer matches, of which Roger won 22. There are 40 Nadal matches, of which Rafa won ALL 40.

    In the second list there are 61 Federer matches, of which Roger won 55. There are 24 Nadal matches, of which Rafa won only 5.

    If you take all the categories -- including the largest one, in which the winner did BOTH things (fewer UE's, more forcing plays) -- then we've got Federer's name appearing 169 times (winning 133), while Nadal's name appears only 121 times (winning 96).

    To make this fair you'd have to take out 48 Federer matches. From there it's a little rough trying to estimate how many of those matches would fall into the various categories. But from the numbers we do have, I'll break the 48 Federer matches down like this:

    - 22 in which Federer (or if Roger lost the match, his opponent) did BOTH things

    - 9 in which Federer (or if Roger lost the match, his opponent) ONLY made fewer UE's

    - 17 in which Federer (or if Roger lost the match, his opponent) ONLY made more forcing plays

    So the overall numbers would be reduced to this:

    369 men's matches

    302 matches (82%) in which the winner made more forcing plays
    279 matches (76%) in which the winner made fewer UE's

    178 matches (48%) in which the winner did both things

    82 matches (22%) were won ONLY by making fewer UE's
    107 matches (29%) were won ONLY by making more forcing plays

    Now the gap between the two styles has closed, but only slightly. There is still a sizeable edge for the aggressive style: meaning that matches in this database, by a significant though not an overwhelming margin, were won more often through making aggressive plays rather than through keeping your UE's down.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2013
  8. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    Delete post
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2013
  9. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    I've just realized I made a mistake in counting the clay matches. The above figures are wrong and I will correct them.
     
  10. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    [Reposting this with corrected numbers]

    Thanks Krosero, I made various kinds of sorting by surfaces in your whole set of 215 matches that were won exclusively by either one or the other method. In that set of 215 matches, hardcourts are 55% (119), grass is 25% (54) and clay 20% (42). Because of this, HC are more predominant in both categories, except when you look at them exclusively by surface, in which case HC is in between clay and grass.

    Where winner had fewer UE’s only:
    91 matches
    18% on grass [16 of 91]
    31% on clay [28 of 91]
    52% on hard [47 of 91]

    Where winner had more forced plays only:
    124 matches
    11% on clay [14 of 124]
    31% on grass [38 of 124]
    58% on hard [72 of 124]

    Where winner had EITHER fewer UEs only OR more forced plays only.
    6.5% had more forced plays only and were on clay [14 of 215]
    7.5 % had fewer UEs only and were on grass [16 of 215]
    13% had fewer UEs only and were on clay [28 of 215]
    18% had more forced plays only and were on grass [38 of 215]
    22% had fewer UEs only and were on hard [47 of 215]
    33% had more forced plays only and were on hard [72 of 215]

    By surface – Fewer UEs only
    30% of the grass matches were won by fewer UEs only [16 of 54]
    39% of hard court matches were won by fewer UEs only [47 of 119]
    67% of the clay matches were won by fewer UEs only [28 of 42]

    By surface – More forced plays only
    33% of clay matches were won by more forced plays only [14 of 42]
    61% of hardcourt matches were won bymore forced plays only [72 of 119]
    70% of grass matches were won by more forced plays only [38 of 54]
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2013
  11. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    Yzaga made more ue's than Sampras?
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2013
  12. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    Barely.

    BOX: Sampras Yzaga
    1st serve percentage 51 45
    Aces12 5
    Double faults9 9
    % 1st serve pts. won 70 71
    % 2nd serve pts. won 51 55
    Winners (with service) 50 56
    Unforced errors 69 70
    Break point conversion 6-13 6-11
    Net approaches 32-59 25-37
    Total points won161 166
    Time of match 3:38
     
  13. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    I noticed that I counted Ivanisevic-Rafter (2001 W) twice in my list of matches won ONLY through forcing plays. I've edited the post and replaced it with Murray-Ferrer in last year's Wimb quarterfinals. That doesn't change any numbers because it's exactly like Goran-Rafter: the winner made more UE's and more forcing plays.

    And Benhur it doesn't change your stats on surfaces, obviously.

    I'll have a closer look at those numbers and post later.
     
  14. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    In the meantime these are the 200 matches I have in which the winner did BOTH things (fewer UE's, more forcing plays).

    1969 W SF Laver d. Ashe
    1970 USO final Rosewall d. Roche
    1974 W final Connors d. Rosewall
    1975 W final Ashe d. Connors
    1978 RG final Borg d. Vilas
    1978 USO final Connors d. Borg
    1978 W final Borg d. Connors
    1980 RG final Borg d. Gerulaitis
    1981 USO final Borg d. Connors
    1983 AO final Wilander d. Lendl
    1983 RG QF Noah d. Lendl
    1983 W QF Lendl d. Tanner
    1984 W final McEnroe d. Connors
    1985 W SF Becker d. Leconte
    1986 USO final Lendl d. Mecir
    1987 USO SF Lendl d. Connors
    1987 W final Cash d. Lendl
    1988 USO SF Lendl d. Agassi
    1988 USO SF Wilander d. Cahill
    1989 AO final Lendl d. Mecir
    1991 RG final Courier d. Agassi
    1991 USO final Edberg d. Courier
    1993 W SF Courier d. Edberg
    1995 AO R16 Agassi d. Rafter
    1995 W final Sampras d. Becker
    1996 USO SF Chang d. Agassi
    1997 Davis Cup SF Sampras d. Rafter
    1997 GS Cup final Sampras d. Rafter
    1998 AO final Korda d. Rios
    1998 USO final Rafter d. Philippoussis
    2000 USO final Safin d. Sampras
    2000 USO R32 Sampras d. Calleri
    2001 AO final Agassi d. Clement
    2001 AO R16 Martin d. Sampras
    2001 IW QF Sampras d. Rafter
    2001 RG final Kuerten d. Corretja
    2001 USO R16 Sampras d. Rafter
    2001 USO SF Hewitt d. Kafelnikov
    2001 USO, R32 Kuerten d. Mirnyi
    2001 W R16 Federer d. Sampras
    2002 W final Hewitt d. Nalbandian
    2003 AO final Agassi d. Schuettler
    2003 AO QF Schuettler d. Nalbandian
    2003 USO final Roddick d. Ferrero
    2003 USO QF Nalbandian d. El Aynaoui
    2003 W R64 Federer d. Koubek
    2003 W final Federer d. Philippoussis
    2003 W QF Federer d. Schalken
    2003 W QF Roddick d. Bjorkman
    2003 W R16 Roddick d. Srichaphan
    2003 W R32 Federer d. Fish
    2003 W R32 Roddick d. Robredo
    2004 AO final Federer d. Safin
    2004 AO R32 Roddick d. Dent
    2004 RG R32 Kuerten d. Federer
    2004 USO SF Federer d. Henman
    2004 W final Federer d. Roddick
    2004 W R128 Federer d. Bogdanovic
    2004 W R16 Federer d. Karlovic
    2004 W R32 Federer d. Johansson
    2004 W R32 Roddick d. Dent
    2004 W R64 Federer d. Falla
    2004 W SF Roddick d. Ancic
    2005 RG QF Nadal d. Ferrer
    2005 TMC SF Federer d. Gaudio
    2005 TMC final Nalbandian d. Federer
    2005 USO QF Federer d. Nalbandian
    2005 USO R32 Blake d. Nadal
    2005 W final Federer d. Roddick
    2005 W QF Federer d. Gonzalez
    2005 W R128 Federer d. Mathieu
    2005 W R32 Federer d. Kiefer
    2005 W R32 Nalbandian d. Murray
    2005 W R64 Federer d. Minar
    2006 TMC final Federer d. Blake
    2006 USO final Federer d. Roddick
    2006 USO QF Federer d. Blake
    2006 USO R32 Federer d. Spadea
    2006 USO R32 Hewitt d. Djokovic
    2006 USO R64 Federer d. Henman
    2006 USO SF Federer d. Davydenko
    2006 W R128 Nadal d. Bogdanovic
    2006 W R16 Federer d. Berdych
    2006 W R16 Nadal d. Labadze
    2006 W R32 Federer d. Mahut
    2006 W R32 Nadal d. Agassi
    2006 W R64 Federer d. Henman
    2006 W SF Federer d. Bjorkman
    2006 W SF Nadal d. Baghdatis
    2007 AO final Federer d. Gonzalez
    2007 AO QF Gonzalez d. Nadal
    2007 AO R128 Federer d. Phau
    2007 AO R16 Federer d. Djokovic
    2007 AO SF Federer d. Roddick
    2007 AO SF Gonzalez d. Haas
    2007 Hamburg final Federer d. Nadal
    2007 IW SF Djokovic d. Murray
    2007 Miami SF Djokovic d. Murray
    2007 RG QF Nadal d. Moya
    2007 RG SF Nadal d. Djokovic
    2007 USO final Federer d. Djokovic
    2007 USO QF Federer d. Roddick
    2007 USO R32 Nadal d. Tsonga
    2007 USO SF Federer d. Davydenko
    2007 W QF Nadal d. Berdych
    2007 W R128 Federer d. Gabashvili
    2007 W R128 Nadal d. Fish
    2007 W R32 Federer d. Safin
    2007 W R64 Federer d. Del Potro
    2007 W R64 Nadal d. Eschauer
    2007 W R16 Nadal d. Youzhny
    2008 AO final Djokovic d. Tsonga
    2008 AO R16 Djokovic d. Hewitt
    2008 AO R16 Federer d. Berdych
    2008 RG final Nadal d. Federer
    2008 RG QF Nadal d. Almagro
    2008 RG R16 Nadal d. Verdasco
    2008 RG R64 Nadal d. Devilder
    2008 RG SF Federer d. Monfils
    2008 RG SF Nadal d. Djokovic
    2008 USO R32 Nadal d. Troicki
    2008 USO SF Federer d. Djokovic
    2008 W R32 Federer d. Gicquel
    2008 W R32 Nadal d. Kiefer
    2008 W QF Federer d. Ancic
    2008 W QF Nadal d. Murray
    2008 W R128 Federer d. Hrbaty
    2008 W R128 Nadal d. Beck
    2008 W R16 Nadal d. Youzhny
    2008 W R64 Federer d. Soderling
    2008 W R64 Safin d. Djokovic
    2008 W SF Federer d. Safin
    2008 W SF Nadal d. Schuettler
    2009 AO QF Federer d. Del Potro
    2009 AO QF Nadal d. Simon
    2009 AO R128 Federer d. Seppi
    2009 AO R128 Nadal d. C. Rochus
    2009 AO R16 Federer d. Berdych
    2009 AO R16 Nadal d. Gonzalez
    2009 AO R32 Federer d. Safin
    2009 AO R32 Nadal d. Haas
    2009 AO R64 Federer d. Korolev
    2009 AO SF Federer d. Roddick
    2009 RG R16 Del Potro d. Tsonga
    2009 USO final Del Potro d. Federer
    2009 USO R128 Nadal d. Gasquet
    2009 W QF Federer d. Karlovic
    2009 W R16 Roddick d. Berdych
    2009 W R64 Federer d. G. Lopez
    2009 W R64 Hewitt d. Del Potro
    2009 W SF Federer d. Haas
    2010 AO QF Federer d. Davydenko
    2010 AO R16 Murray d. Isner
    2010 AO SF Federer d. Tsonga
    2010 USO final Nadal d. Djokovic
    2010 USO QF Nadal d. Verdasco
    2010 USO R128 Nadal d. Gabashvili
    2010 USO R16 Nadal d. F. Lopez
    2010 USO R32 Nadal d. Simon
    2010 USO R64 Nadal d. Istomin
    2010 USO SF Nadal d. Youzhny
    2010 W R128 Nadal d. Nishikori
    2010 W R16 Federer d. Melzer
    2010 W R16 Nadal d. Mathieu
    2010 W R32 Federer d. Clement
    2010 W R64 Nadal d. Haase
    2010 W SF Berdych d. Djokovic
    2010 W SF Nadal d. Murray
    2011 AO final Djokovic d. Murray
    2011 Davis Cup Nadal d. Tsonga
    2011 Madrid final Djokovic d. Nadal
    2011 RG R32 Nadal d. Veic
    2011 RG SF Nadal d. Murray
    2011 USO QF Nadal d. Roddick
    2011 W final Djokovic d. Nadal
    2011 W QF Nadal d. Fish
    2011 W R128 Nadal d. Russell
    2011 W R16 Murray d. Gasquet
    2011 W R64 Nadal d. Sweeting
    2011 W SF Djokovic d. Tsonga
    2012 AO final Djokovic d. Nadal
    2012 AO QF Federer d. Del Potro
    2012 AO R16 Djokovic d. Hewitt
    2012 AO R16 Federer d. Tomic
    2012 AO SF Djokovic d. Murray
    2012 MC final Nadal d. Djokovic
    2012 Olympics final Murray d. Federer
    2012 RG R16 Nadal d. Monaco
    2012 RG R64 Nadal d. Istomin
    2012 RG SF Nadal d. Ferrer
    2012 USO QF Djokovic d. Del Potro
    2012 W QF Federer d. Youzhny
    2012 W R128 Federer d. A. Ramos
    2012 W R16 Federer d. Malisse
    2012 W R32 Federer d. Benneteau
    2012 W R64 Federer d. Fognini
    2012 W SF Federer d. Djokovic
    2013 AO R32 Federer d. Tomic
    2013 AO SF Murray d. Federer
    2013 IW quarterfinal Nadal d. Federer

    And again, the two matches in their own unique category: the winner making more UE's and fewer forcing plays.

    2005 AO SF Safin d. Federer
    2010 W R128 Isner d. Mahut
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2013
  15. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    I think the only really meaningful categories from the stats I calculated earlier are the last two, because the others are so dependent on the fact that the number of matches for each surface is very different, they don't really give useful information.

    Those last two categories can also be presented in the following way. (Again, this is from the total set of 215 matches that were won either by fewer unforced errors only, OR by more forced plays only.)

    Grass (54 matches)
    30% won by fewer UEs only (16 matches)
    70% won by more forced plays only (38 matches)

    Hard (119 matches)
    39% won by fewer UEs only (47 matches)
    61% won by more forced plays only (72 matches)

    Clay (42 matches)
    67% won by fewer UEs only (28 matches)
    33% won by more forced plays only (14 matches)

    I suppose we could say that this simply confirms what we suspect, but puts some numbers to it: aggressive play pays off especially on grass. And low UE’s pay off especially on clay. Hard courts are in between, with a preference toward aggressive play.
     
  16. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    One more quick correction for now. I listed Wilander-Agassi (1988 AO) twice, so I've edited the post and replaced the extra one with Agassi-Dent (2005 AO). Same surface and same type of match (winner made fewer UE's only), so it doesn't change any of our totals.
     
  17. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    I agree, these last summaries are the meaningful ones, and they more or less are what you would expect. But breaking it down by surface gives some perspective: it may be true that aggressive play is a slightly more successful way of winning tennis matches overall (going by the results of the whole database) -- but that may only be true because a minority of matches are on clay.

    In the post I'm quoting here, only 20% of the matches were on clay. But if you get a sample of matches of which approximately half were on clay, then keeping your UE's down would probably come out on top, in the overall database, as the more successful way to win matches.

    At least that's what you would expect.
     
  18. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    One other thing is that I reduced some of the distance between the two styles by taking out 48 Federer matches, but I'm not sure that's valid. It sounds fair, but there's no inherent reason why you SHOULD have an equal number of matches by Federer and Nadal or any other pair of players. The only thing you need is a sizable, random sample of tennis matches. If you get that, Federer is likely to be involved in more matches in the sample than Nadal is, simply because Federer's had a longer career; he's played more matches.

    So my original numbers comparing the two styles may not have been unfairly biased to the aggressive style.
     
  19. NatF

    NatF G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    14,347
    Location:
    On the road from would of to would have
    Have you got any AM's for Sampras or Agassi? Apart from those included in the other players.
     
  20. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    I've got these: http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?p=2862325#post2862325

    Apart from that I've got only two more, both of them straight-set victories by Agassi.

    2001 Indian Wells final
    Agassi - 25.5%
    Sampras - 15.5%

    1999 Masters Cup round-robin
    Agassi - 23.7%
    Sampras - 4.1%
     
  21. corners

    corners Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2008
    Messages:
    5,441
    Federer posted an AM of 56.3% today in his 6-1 6-2 defeat of Potito Starace today in Rome, on clay. Starace's AM was also very high for clay, 24.1%

    Is 56.3% the highest AM calculated so far?

    Rome website has 87 total points, Federer winning 58, Starace winning 29. Masters TV feed had 8 UEs and 35 winners for Federer, 9 UEs and 13 winners for Starace. Starace got in with a wildcard, is currently ranked 293, but was once ranked as high as 27 (in 2007).
     
  22. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    could you calculate the AM for Nadal-Gulbis?

    Nadal def. Gulbis 1-6 7-5 6-4
    Nadal: won 94 pts, made 19 unforced errors.
    Gulbis: won 97 pts, made 50 unforced errors
     
  23. hoodjem

    hoodjem G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2007
    Messages:
    12,764
    Location:
    Bierlandt
    Most interesting.
     
  24. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    nadal's AM = (94-69)/191 = 25/191 ~ 13.1%
    gulbis' AM = (97-69)/191 = 28/191 ~ 14.66%
     
  25. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    Serena-Azarenka Rome Final

    Serena 28%
    Azarenka 10%
     
  26. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    how are the AM's at the French Open?
     
  27. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    vs simon : ( 147-103/278 ) = 15.82%
    vs benneteau : ( 98-52/162 ) = 28.4%
    vs devvarman : ( 88-47/140 ) = 29.29%
    vs busta : ( 88-48/138 ) = 29%
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2013
  28. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    thanks. how are Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer doing?
     
  29. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    nadal AMs vs :

    nishikori : ( 91-64/156 ) = 17.3%
    fognini : ( 122-99/233 ) = 9.87%
    klizan : ( 113-86/203 ) = 13.3%
    brands : ( 140-79/255 ) = 23.92%


    djokovic's AM vs :

    kohlscreiber : ( 134-90/257 ) = 17.12%
    dimitrov : (94-70/155 ) = 15.5%
    pella : ( 93-60/151 ) = 21.85%
    goffin : ( 114-69/213 ) = 21.13%

    will calculate and post for ferrer, tsonga and wawrinka later
     
  30. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    Spoilers :


    djokovic vs haas :

    djokovic : ( 116-59/200 ) = 28.5%
    haas : ( 84-59/200 ) = 12.5%


    nadal vs wawrinka :

    nadal : ( 96-57/160 ) = 24.38%
    wawrinka : (64-57/160 ) = 4.4%
     
  31. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    tsonga vs :

    federer : ( 103-56/176 ) = 26.7%
    troicki : ( 98-51/168 ) = 28%
    chardy : (86-58/146 ) = 19.18%
    niemenen : (106-71/189 ) = 18.52%
    bedene : ( 93-68/156 ) = 16%
     
  32. corners

    corners Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2008
    Messages:
    5,441
    Wow. Very high AMs on clay. We'll see if he can keep it up against the superb defender Ferrer.

    What was Fed's AM vs. Tsonga?
     
  33. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    fed's AM vs tsonga : ( 73-56 / 176 ) = 9.66%
     
  34. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    ferrer vs :

    robredo : ( 84-46/130 ) = 29.23%
    anderson : ( 97-52/157 ) = 28.66%
    lopez : (111-71/191 ) = 20.94%
    montanes : ( 96-57/159 ) = 24.53%
    matosevic : ( 98-64/174 ) = 19.54%
     
  35. hoodjem

    hoodjem G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2007
    Messages:
    12,764
    Location:
    Bierlandt
    ^^^
    Did kiki really write "baggel"?

    (My spell-checker is going nuts.)
     
  36. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    yes, he did .
     
  37. hoodjem

    hoodjem G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2007
    Messages:
    12,764
    Location:
    Bierlandt
    I should have one for breakfast . . . with my eg.:wink:
     
  38. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    looks like Nadal played at a pretty high level vs Brands, despite losing a set. All the AMs for the remaining players seem rather high, maybe a sign of faster conditions this year?
     
  39. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    you mean eggg , don't you ? ;)
     
  40. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    I was only able to watch part of that match. Brands movement being sub-par would've helped rafa's AM a bit I guess.

    As far as overall AMs in this RG is concerned, a combination of (mostly) dominating the opponents and slightly faster conditions (atleast compared to previous year) I think
     
  41. corners

    corners Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2008
    Messages:
    5,441
    Wow, lower-ranked players, sure, but those are very high AMs for Ferrer!
     
  42. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,912
    Serena was at 54% vs Errani
     
  43. corners

    corners Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2008
    Messages:
    5,441
    And on clay to boot!
     
  44. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    Nadal vs Djokovic RG 2013 SF

    nadal : 61 winners, 44 UEs,177 points won

    djokovic : 54 winners, 75 UEs,158 points won

    total points = 335
    total UEs = 119

    nadal's AM = (177-119)/335 = 17.3%
    djokovic's AM = (158-119)/335 = 11.64%
     
  45. hoodjem

    hoodjem G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2007
    Messages:
    12,764
    Location:
    Bierlandt
    Ahh, but of course.
     
  46. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    Nadal vs Ferrer

    As always, winner of the match listed first.

    2007 USO R16
    Ferrer - 23.4%
    Nadal - 16.7%

    2011 AO qf
    Ferrer - 20.3%
    Nadal - 5.1%

    2005 RG qf
    Nadal - 20.9%
    Ferrer - 2.3%

    2012 RG semi
    Nadal - 24.4%
    Ferrer - (-2.3%)

    2013 RG final
    Nadal - 23.3%
    Ferrer - 7.0%

    2013 Madrid qf
    Nadal - 15.8%
    Ferrer - 8.7%
     
  47. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    2012 RG final
    Nadal - 17.8%
    Djokovic - 14.1%

    2013 RG sf
    Nadal - 17.3%
    Djokovic - 11.6%


    2012 MC final
    Nadal - 22.1%
    Djokovic - (-3.4)

    2013 MC final
    Djokovic - 15.1%
    Nadal - 2.9%
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2013
  48. krosero

    krosero Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,639
    This is one of those rare matches in which Nadal has more winners than Djokovic. Do you know of any others? The only other one I know of is the 2010 USO final (Nadal led 49-45 in winners).
     
  49. Benhur

    Benhur Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2007
    Messages:
    2,562
    Nadal changed his style of play since he came back, in the sense that he now seems to rely a bit less on quickness and low UEs, and more on aggressive shotmaking. He is not as fast as he once was, but he goes for his shots sooner.
     
  50. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    depends on the opponent as well. For example, he had only 13 winners to 59 winners from gulbis in rome ...
     

Share This Page