Predicting success of recent college players turned pro?

Discussion in 'College Tennis Talk' started by db379, Nov 30, 2012.

  1. db379

    db379 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2007
    Messages:
    1,608
    After reading this article (http://www.collegetennisonline.com/Tennis/NewsDetail.aspx?nwId=45548), I tried to see if there was any correlation between the highest ATP ranking achieved and the former ITA ranking of these players. After all, success in college is usually what decides these players to turn pro or not, so one may see some correlation.

    The graph I plotted shows highest ITA rank vs highest ATP rank. I have taken into account only players who have played pro (incl futures) full time for 3 years or more. This is because I estimate that a recent grad has not had a chance to reach his peak in only a few months or even 1 or 2 years. I estimate that after 3 years a player should have shown proof of his aptitudes in the pros (and reached a ranking high enough). I have to stess out that this is only a small sample, and that a larger sample would give much more accurate stats, but this is all I got. It still gives some idea of who succeeded in college and also succeeded in the pros and what could be expected of recent college players turned pro.

    One striking observation from this graph is that of all players who reached inside the ATP top 100, all of them achieved a top 10 ITA ranking, except one (top 20). All the others who were beyond the top 20 in college did not become top 100 pros! I think this is quite telling, even if the sample size is small. It is also noteworthy to realize that not all former ITA top 10 made it to the top 100 in the pros. In fact from the data available, 73% of former top 10 college players made it to the top 100, and 36% made it to he top 50! Moreover, 3 out of 4 college players ranked above 20 ITA never made it to the top 250 ATP.

    According to this data, one could predict that recent grads like Johnson and Klahn (both former top 5) have a pretty good chance (73%) to make it inside the top 100, whereas Meister for ex. is unlikely to make it... Not wishing any bad luck to anyone though. :)

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/13/itaprorank.png/

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2012
    #1
  2. db379

    db379 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2007
    Messages:
    1,608
    #2
  3. LeeD

    LeeD Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2008
    Messages:
    36,399
    Location:
    East side of San Francisco Bay
    Lack of injury and sustained interest probably determines a college player's chances of making it on the pro tour.
     
    #3
  4. ClarkC

    ClarkC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2008
    Messages:
    3,767
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    I don't think the 73% number can be used in this fashion. It would be more accurate to say that "73% of currently active pro players who used to be top 10 ITA college players have reached the top 100 in the ATP rankings." There could be lots of former top 10 ITA players who are not currently active who are not on the list. Their top ATP rankings would probably be skewed lower than the currently active players, because if you don't achieve success you are more likely to become "not active" by retiring rather young.

    The list is also incomplete, and the maintainer is requesting updates. I have sent him several this weekend, so the list will be changing.
     
    #4
  5. db379

    db379 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2007
    Messages:
    1,608
    That's the problem of any sampling and stats... Like I said, the data represents a small pool, it's not taking into account all players but that's what I had to work with. So, yes it's not the whole story but according to the available data that's the best one can do. I still think it is telling something which may not be far from the reality.
     
    #5
  6. GRANITECHIEF

    GRANITECHIEF Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2004
    Messages:
    3,750
    Location:
    Santa Barbara
    #6
  7. matchplay

    matchplay Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2011
    Messages:
    147
    stats and graphs are interesting to look at, just look at the earning list for 2012 ATP

    It seems clear that most jrs. that do not go or complete (graduate) college will fail on tour.

    ie:

    Johnson (has not graduated, but attended for 4 years) and Klahn are two guys that have clearly established themselves to have future large earning capacity on tour (may be a few more, just using these guys as examples). May be a few others.
    Now look at others (about the same age or school class - 0 to 6 years apart ) who either did not go to shool or left faily early......
    Kosikowski, Mihdawy, McClune, Britton, Bangoura, Berman, Cox, Halebian----
    i does not appear they can make a living on tour.
    I guess the point is, go to school to get a degree or at least a good start on a degree, because making it on tour is tough.
     
    #7
  8. Tmano

    Tmano Professional

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    888
    25 years old Marek Michalicka from chzek republic and Moritz Baumann form Germany used to play for the university of wisconsin (badger) til 2010 when he graduated....Marek is now ranked atp 329 in the world and Moritz 357
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
    #8
  9. Tmano

    Tmano Professional

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2010
    Messages:
    888
    not quite there yet!
     
    #9
  10. Tennishacker

    Tennishacker Professional

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2009
    Messages:
    991
    Money determines how long they can play on the tour.
     
    #10

Share This Page