Predictions for the rest of Nadal and Federer's careers

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by FedExpress17, Apr 24, 2013.

  1. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Seeing Djokovic beat Nadal on clay at Monte Carlo and Federer on indoor hardcourt at the World Tour Finals really underlined how dominant Djokovic has become since 2011. Murray looks capable of beating the big guys at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Australian Open. Encouraging (if admittedly sporadic as of yet) performances from the likes of Raonic, Dimitrov, Tomic, Gulbis and others may be an indication that the new generation are almost ready to make a breakthrough and sweep the last remnants of the Fedal generation away.

    This turn of events got me wondering;

    1. When will Federer and Nadal retire?
    2. Will there come a point before they retire where they can no longer hang with the new generation and if so, when will that point occur?
    3. Bearing your answer to the last two questions in mind, how many more slam finals will they each make before retirement?
    4. How many of these finals do you expect each player to actually win?

    Anyone up for some interesting and productive discussion on this topic? :)
     
    #1
  2. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Woops, I think I probably posted this in the wrong section....... Should be in the General Pro Player Discussion section......
     
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  3. mightyrick

    mightyrick Hall of Fame

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    I think Federer retires next year after he loses a bunch of points this year. He's got a family and a lot of other stuff he can do. I can't see Federer winning another slam.

    I think Nadal will be around for 3 or 4 years probably. I don't see him retiring before that. I think they'll be able to manage his knee issues. I can see Nadal winning maybe 3 or 4 more slams. Certainly at least one more at the French Open. I can also see him winning at least one on HC if Djokovic is taken out (which he will be sometimes).
     
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  4. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Interesting.... Whats your prediction on number of finals made?
     
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  5. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near G.O.A.T.

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    Roger Federer:

    0 - 3 more finals, 0 - 2 more wins. Retires with 17 - 19 Majors in 2016/17.

    I think Federer will continue to lose more than 50% of the matches he plays against the combination of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. His odds will probably get worse and worse against them while in the meantime, the next generation will also start to pose considerable problems for him by about 2015, more or less shutting him out of the picture at the Slam events. His saving grace is Wimbledon, and he may be able to sneak up to 2 more extra titles there with some fortune. Frankly, my gut feeling is that he won't actually win another Major but if he does it will be Wimbledon once or maybe twice and he might have a chance to sneak a US Open.

    Rafael Nadal:

    Around about 4 - 7 more finals, 2 - 4 more wins. Retires with 13 - 15 Majors in 2016/17.

    Until Nadal's RG fortress is broken, it can remain a tournie in which he is the heavy favourite for quite some time. Even if he is beaten there it won't mean that he will lack chances in the future. He also has a good shot to reach the final at Wimbledon and has an impressive recent record there, as well as quite enjoying the slow and heavy conditions at the Australian Open. He will start (already has) declining though and guys like Djokovic and Murray will provide tougher and tougher resistance for him over the next couple of years. But Nadal will still have what it takes to more or less hang with these guys, find his way into more RG finals, another Wimbledon final or two and maybe another AO final, winning some. The next gen. will start to put good pressure on Nadal around about the same time they do Federer, and his body will continue to feel tumultuous and slowly breakdown, leading to retirement at roughly the same time as Federer... two legends of the game retiring at approx. the same time.

    The Tennis landscape will have changed substantially enough that even though both players will be missed, the tennis public will be looking forward rather than backward.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2013
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  6. FedExpress17

    FedExpress17 Rookie

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    Pretty sensible predictions :) My own predictions are:

    Fed retires at year end 2016.
    He will have trouble with the new generation starting 2015.
    Will make 2 more grand slam finals and win 1.

    Nadal hangs on until French Open 2017
    The new generation cause him problems in middle 2014 (grass season)
    Will make 8 more finals and win 4.
     
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  7. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

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    Nadals career is uncertain as after 8 months out he is still complaining about his knees,

    Federer i dunno, another major or wtf ??..possible,

    they both want to play to at least 2016 Olympics but no-one knows.
     
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  8. Joseph L. Barrow

    Joseph L. Barrow Professional

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    Based on past statements, they are both personally committed to keeping at it at least until the 2016 Olympics. I don't envision them hanging around very long after that, however-- they will probably both be retired five years from now, as they will have slipped out of contention for the biggest titles and will not have an interest in going on indefinitely as middling players.

    I give Nadal 2-4 more Major titles, with 1-3 French Opens yet to come, a fair chance at another Wimbledon, and an outside shot at another Australian or US Open title. 1-2 more for Federer, who is still good enough at the Majors to consistently make deep runs and will remain so for at least another two to three years, during which time he will catch fire and/or fall through the cracks at least once.
     
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  9. Sorana fan

    Sorana fan Banned

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    Nadal wil retire after 2016 Olympics

    Federer next year (2013) when he finally realises he's not able to win a GS anymore
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2013
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  10. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I think Fed can still win a couple more slams before he calls it quits. Nadal, otoh, is finished, and will never win another slam for the rest of his career. I also think Fed will last longer on the tour even though he is older. Nadal will be retired in the next year or so, while Fed will still be hanging around for at least 2-3 more years.
     
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  11. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I have serious doubts about Fed hanging around until the end of 2016 or if he does it will be with a very, very depleted schedule.
    As for Rafa, it depends entirely on whether he can keep his body together or not. So far the signs are not overwhelmingly encouraging :(
     
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  12. sportsfan1

    sportsfan1 Hall of Fame

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    Nadal's one and only problem is Djokovic, and has been for the last few years. He's shown that he can manage his knees and since he came back this year he's beaten top 10 opponents such as Federer Berdych, Tsonga, JMDP and won titles.
    If someone else manages to upset Djok, and Rafa can occasionally get wins against him (such as last year), he looks to be in the picture to win many more slams. No matter what he says about it himself, you just can't count him out.

    Federer currently, on the other hand has gone in as the underdog against Nadal in the slams, and is now also looking susceptible to upsets from Berdych, Tsonga, JMDP. He's also had more losses than wins against Djokovic and Murray recently. 0-1 slams.
     
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  13. Vamos Rafa

    Vamos Rafa Rookie

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    I mostly agree with this, but not sure that Nadal will struggle with the next generation before Federer I reckon it'll be about the same time (although I do agree it will be on the grass where Rafa will begin to struggle more as more opponents seem to be able to out-hit him). Think you've got the number of slams for each about right, maybe one too many for Nadal depending on whether Djokovic manages to stop his dominance at RG. Which slams do you think Roger and Rafa will win between now and retirement?
     
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  14. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Federer's staying on until at least 2016. Look at him right now. He's won no tournaments since Cincy last year and still is the world #2. :lol: :lol:
    And now he's on another 2 month vacation.
     
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  15. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    yeah but what does that mean? Does it mean that Federer is so good that he can stay in the top 3 without collecting any points? That wouldn't make any sense. It means that he has collected most of his points before the end of the season. Namely, at Madrid, RG, olympics, Wimbledon and Cincy.

    Do you think he can repeat these titles/finals? Because I don't.. He's #9 in the Race right now. If Almagro does well at Barcelona, Fed will be #10.. Maybe even #11 if Nishikori does very well. Don't want to sound too negative but it's a fact that if things keep going as they're going right now, he will be outside of the top 5 in a couple of months.
     
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  16. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Nah, I think Fed will pick it up soon. The one who will be out of the top 5 in a couple of months is Nadal. I won't be shocked if he doesn't make the top 8 this year with the way things are going.
     
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  17. vive le beau jeu !

    vive le beau jeu ! G.O.A.T.

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    the nadal retiring asap would be great.
     
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  18. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

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    i'd like to see nadal win at least 1 more US open and 1 more AO, just to balance a bit, because
    7 french
    2 wimbledon
    1 US
    1 OA

    that's a bit off balance [​IMG]
     
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  19. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

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    if u think federer is gonna be top 4 at the end of the year, i say u are dreaming mate :) he's like number 10 so far at the RACE ranking, even gasquet is ahead [​IMG]
     
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  20. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    clarkyyyy, you're obviously saying things that aren't realistic. If "things keep going like they are now", Nadal will make the final of every tournament he enters. It's difficult to finish the year outside of the top 5 if you make every final. Besides, I think he almost has enough points already to finish #8.
     
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  21. Ico

    Ico Hall of Fame

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    [​IMG]

    #sandbag #jynx
     
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  22. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    Oh and here's my prediction:
    Federer: Will retire in 2014 citing health issues (he said he will keep playing until his body lets him and his back isn't holding up well lately)
    2 finals, 0 titles. I don't know, just guessing of course. He is usually good at making semi-finals. I can imagine him beating Djokovic or Murray once or twice there, but winning the final as well seems a bit too much. There's always hope though.

    Nadal: Will retire in 2017
    6 finals, 2 titles
     
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  23. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I don't think Fed will retire next year. I don't think his back has gotten that bad yet.
     
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  24. Relinquis

    Relinquis Hall of Fame

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    the newer generation aren't posing a risk to federer, because they are mostly Pu... sorry, defensive baseliners. they need to get to the level of djokovic or murray to trouble federer using that strategy. they're far from that.

    Federer's recent non-top 3 losses have come to whome? Benneteau (a 30 something all courter) and to Berdych, an aggressive baseliner with a massive serve who has troubled federer for some time now.

    The future threat to Federer will come from people who know his game and can answer to it given a decline in Roger's health/physical ability. Wawrinka, maybe Tsonga and such. Not new guys.

    Nadal's game would be more vulnerable to a decline in speed/physicality with age/injury, but as long as he manages his health he should be safe from most simply due to the uniqueness of his heavy shots. Very few of the new guys are big hitters who can also move (Gulbis being an exception). Even fewer are all courters (only Dimitrov).

    Federer and Nadal will be with us for some time to come. The threat won't come from the new kids.
     
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  25. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

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    7 month of lay-off is very serious set-back, especially at the top echelon of
    world class tennis competition. I don't think it's clear yet Nadal will come back
    to it successfully. This is still serious threat to Nadal's career.
     
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  26. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    I don't believe Fed will hang around till 2016. Right now Fed is still winning stuff and hence he feels that he will be around for long. But if he goes a year without winning ANY tournament (lets say 2015) , then I think a guy of his stature would call it quits. I mean he has nothing left to prove anyway, and he would have had 15+ yrs to 'enjoy the sport'. He could make a cameo for the 2016 olympics.

    Similarly I think Nadal will burn out by the end of 2015 as well. Unlike Federer who can still rely on his serve, Nadal's wheels are his lifeline. He has already lost 1/2 step (IMO) and if he loses another 1/2 step, I think he will be done. I just don't see him grinding away with the likes of Novak and Murray for more than 3 more years.
     
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  27. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Talk Tennis Guru

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    Federer seems closer to being done than Rafa, but I guess we will see. I expect them both to at least finish 2014. One thing is for sure, when both guys say "this is my last tournament"..... it's going to be a huge deal. When they go out like Roddick or Agassi, and you know at the handshake after MP that the last ball of their career has been struck, it's going to be emotional.
     
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  28. dgbeclih600

    dgbeclih600 Rookie

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    I think federer will retire by the end of 2014 year will no slams I don't
    Think he can beat Murray, Rafael, Novak in a slam maybe Wimbledon but I doubt it.

    Rafael will retire in 2016 if knees hold up maybe 2017 I think he has another 3-5 slams in him if he stays healthy and not taking a long time off. You have to think Novak is his only competition I still think Murray can't beat Rafael in a slam until proven otherwise so Nole is his only competition and I don't see anyone from the new generation really threaten the top four for next upcoming years.
     
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  29. Feather

    Feather Hall of Fame

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    I don't think Roger Federer will play in 2015. I think he talked about playing in 2016 Olympics as a spur of the moment reaction when he lost in 2012 Olympics final. The loss hurt him and as always, when he loses in Wimbledon he would say I hope to do better next year, he said he hopes to do well next time. The fact is the next time is four years later and he didn't consider too much about that longer time frame.
     
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  30. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

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    The stupid thing about year 2016 is that Federer wanna play until that date to win the Olympics in Single, he could not do it on grass last year, and he thinks he's gonna do it 4 years later in Brasil (so probably on clay ? :lol: ) you can't be serious Roger [​IMG]
     
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  31. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near G.O.A.T.

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    Relax folks, ...
    Isn't it going to be on a hard court? That's what I heard.
     
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  32. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

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    oh ok i'm surprised i thought South america = clay

    Then a slow hard court and that will be the same story, Fed out in the 2nd round
     
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  33. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    I think it's going to be on hardcourt, read it somewhere here on TT. About Federer winning it, I don't think anyone believes he can do that at 35 years old.
     
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  34. wy2sl0

    wy2sl0 Hall of Fame

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    The Indian Wells loss by Federer to Nadal was a bad sign, bad back or not. We'll see how he ends the year but it doesn't look promising.
    I don't see any reason why Nadal can't win two or three more majors before he hangs it up.
     
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  35. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I don't understand that sentence given that Murray has already beaten Nadal in 2 slams.
     
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  36. Marty Cintron

    Marty Cintron Semi-Pro

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    :lol: Fed would not even be allowed to play Olympic games since he leaves Davis Cup; Wawrinka will go to Brazil without Fed.
     
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  37. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

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    Wawrinka and Marc Rosset for the singles :lol:
     
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  38. Alchemy-Z

    Alchemy-Z Professional

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    I am not going to predict achievements but I will retirement

    I think Rafa may retire 2018 (at age 32)
    Fed retires 2016 (at age 35)
     
    #38
  39. Marty Cintron

    Marty Cintron Semi-Pro

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    Rafa: Knee broken at age 30. :lol:
     
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  40. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

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    Rafa 2018 that is VERY optimistic IMO
     
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  41. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    Federer 18 slams tops
    Nadal 13 slams tops

    Finals? Who cares about losses.
     
    #41
  42. RodSmooth

    RodSmooth Professional

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    They will in the long run, accomplish less than Monfils
     
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  43. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Monfils would love to have 1/10th of their careers.
     
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  44. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    Federer 19 GS, 25 Masters 1000
    Nadal 16 GS, 32 Masters 1000
    Murray 6 GS, 16 Masters 1000
    Djoker......because Clarky says that he will win almost all of his matches,sky is the limit... infinity and beyond :twisted:
     
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  45. winstonplum

    winstonplum Hall of Fame

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    For the first time ever, I think the end of Fed is coming. I have nothing against him. I really don't care one way or the other. He's an incredible champion and his records speak for themselves. Something just feels . . . a little different this year. Perhaps he can make one more spectacular slam run a la Pete--maybe Wimby or the USO, but I can't see Fed playing past the end of next year.

    Nadal's only slam problem is Nole. Nole's form dipped last year but Nadal wasn't around to capitalize on it except in the cc season. From here on out, I think in order for Rafa to pick up any more slams, he's going to have to pick them up the way Fed did after 2007--hoping his kryptonite is knocked out of the tournament. The exception to that rule might be RG, but we'll see. I see one more slam for Rafa as quite likely, two would be fabulous; for him to tie Pete he would need some incredible draws and help. Fed's slam count has been safe since 2.0 Nole arrived on the scene.
     
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  46. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Nadal's only problem isn't Cvac; it's also his destroyed knees and the pounding he puts his body through. He can't stay healthy long enough to do anything much less beat the guy who has owned his ass for 2+ years now.

    I also don't think Fed is done. Seems kind of ridiculous to dig his grave and not Nadal's. Fed is still holding up better than Nadal is, even though he is 5 years older.
     
    #46
  47. winstonplum

    winstonplum Hall of Fame

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    I couldn't disagree with you more. If we're talking slams, let's look at them. Since RG 2010, Nadal has played 10 slams--three loses to Nole, one to Ferrer, and one to Rosol. I think Ferrer's words in Jan of 2011 were, and I'm paraphrasing his improving English, "If he weren't hurt, I probably wouldn't have won." And Rosol; enough said. That leaves him with a Nole problem and only a Nole problem lately in slams.

    He knees aren't destroyed. Just stop it. He has a chronic condition in his left knee. He can play tennis. He is playing tennis, and if you didn't notice he's made five finals in a row and won three tournaments since his return. You must have missed two classic, gutsy Nadal perfomances against Gulbis and Delpo. They were really good. IW was spectacular.

    How did Nole own Nadal in 2012? He was 0-3. If that's owning someone's ass, I'm really confused.

    I'm not digging Fed's grave, but I think he'll be about done at the end of 2014. That's seven more slams for him grab one or two. He'll be 33 1/2 at that point. I didn't feel he was in decline in 2011 or 2012. In my opinion, he's in decline now. I could be wrong. I've been so before.
     
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  48. Netspirit

    Netspirit Hall of Fame

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    Federer will consider retiring when he is firmly out of top 4 (for age or health reasons) and therefore has a challenging draw at every tournament he enters.

    To much hassle, too little meaning. It is not that he has to prove to anyone that he has been decent at hitting fuzzy yellow balls over the net.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2013
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  49. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    Yes they are. Toni himself said in an interview with Mats Wilander that this knee injury is career threatening. He is never going to be the same again, mark my words.

    In how many of those finals did he beat Cvac or Murray? The one final he played against Cvac he got beat yet again. He's helpless against him and their matches are entirely on Cvac's racket.

    Yep. Cvac owns Nadal's ass. He is 8-3 over the past 2 years, won 7 finals in a row, an has beaten him comprehensively on all surfaces. Cvac can beat Nadal in his sleep it's so easy for him. He beats him constantly.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2013
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  50. Joseph L. Barrow

    Joseph L. Barrow Professional

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    He is toward the bottom of the top 10 in the race with three of the four Majors, six of the nine Masters Series, and the year-end championships yet to come. Last year, Murray was fifth or sixth in the race at the halfway point in the season, then reached the Wimbledon final, won the US Open, and finished in third. It's you who is being unrealistic if you think this statistic is devastating to Federer's chances of finishing in the top four again.
     
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