Race to #1 - Federer/Nadal

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by HollerOne5, Jul 13, 2006.

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What will happen?

  1. Federer will maintain #1, break the record

    1 vote(s)
    100.0%
  2. Nadal will reach #1, prevent the record

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Nadal will reach #1, but only after record has been broken

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. HollerOne5

    HollerOne5 Semi-Pro

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    Ok, obviously, everyone here is convinced that Federer will be number one until hell freezes over, however, I was bored, and have done some researching (feel free to correct this if necessary).

    Roger Federer has held the #1 ranking for 128 consecutive weeks now.

    The record for consecutive weeks at #1 is 160, Jimmy Connors.

    In exactly 8 months, Federer COULD pass this mark. This would be around mid-March 2007. So I took the liberty of calculating the points as of now, what needs to be defended, and what could be earned by either Federer and Nadal by then.....the stats don't lie, judge for yourself, and then vote.....

    This is under the assumption that the record would be broken after Indian Wells 2007.

    Points Federer has to defend by then, including Indian Wells 2006 = 4135

    Points Nadal has to defend by then, including Indian Wells 2006 = 1780

    Most important of all, Nadal has a total of 75 to defend from US Open and Australian, while Federer has 2,000 to defend at these.

    Right now, their current ranking points are 7290 and 5125 respectively.

    Well, what do you guys think?
     
    #1
  2. ACE of Hearts

    ACE of Hearts G.O.A.T.

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    What are the chances that Nadal gets another micky mouse draw?I am sure they are 2-1.I think he will go far in the U.S Open.
     
    #2
  3. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    If Nadal wins both US Open this year and Aussie Open next year, then he'll get to No. 1. The chance is small. Otherwise, he won't.
     
    #3
  4. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    As I mentioned before if Nadal can take over #1 before March 2007 then he can beat Hewitt's record for youngest #1 ever. I think Nadal can win 2007 AO in which case it is very likely that he will take the #1 spot couple of weeks earlier than Hewitt.

    I am sure Fed and Nadal are aware of all this and they will be playing quite a lot of tournaments at the end of this year. Especially Federer will. Just so that he can remain #1 even if he does not win 2007 AO. If Fed stays healthy and if Nadal gains a lot of points at USO I am certain that Federer will play both Paris and Madrid just to get as many points he can.
     
    #4
  5. BaselDazzle

    BaselDazzle Rookie

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    Both of them can pick up a number of points towards the end of the year - remember Fed missed those tournaments last year due to injury.
     
    #5
  6. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    Why would Nadal be No. 1 if he just wins Australia Open? Both of them would be 2 slam title holders. However, Federer did much better in Master events than Nadal this year. You can look at this way, even if you get rid of Federer's win at Aussie this year out of his points this year, he is still ahead of Nadal in race points.
     
    #6
  7. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    You have to like Federer's chance a lot better on indoor courts.
     
    #7
  8. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    If Nadal gets a USO draw of the kind he did at Wimbledon this year then I think I will change into "barry" and start coming up with conspiracy theories! Especially if Fed has to play Pim Pim in the 1st round or something ridiculous like that. Oh if Nadal gets to play Guga people better not be telling me that that's a tough opponent. Oh and Fererro is also an extremely easy opponent for Nadal even thou he reached USO final. So is Gaudio and Ferrer and Coria and pretty much any Spanish speaking player other than Moya or Nalbandian.

    Gasquet, Safin, Djokovic, Monfils, Roddick, Hewitt, Ljubicic, Ancic, Berdych are examples of tough draw for Nadal at USO. Agassi or Henman or any claycourter are examples of an easy draw.
     
    #8
  9. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    I meant he has good chance to be #1 after 2007 AO if he does really well the rest of this year. Because even if he beats Fed this year every time time meet Fed will still be #1 at the end of this year. However if Nadal keeps doing that and then wins 2007 AO then I think he will finally be #1.
     
    #9
  10. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    So you think Nadal is going to beat Federer every time they meet the rest of year?
     
    #10
  11. MsPiggy

    MsPiggy Rookie

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    Don't forget James Blake.
     
    #11
  12. Marat Safinator

    Marat Safinator Banned

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    If nadal overtakes federer by indian wells, I will become gay.
     
    #12
  13. HollerOne5

    HollerOne5 Semi-Pro

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    I would say if Nadal keeps up his impressive offensive form, you should get used to liking guys.
     
    #13
  14. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    No actually I think Fed will beat him every time they meet. Grass played like fast hard court this year so Fed now knows what to do.
     
    #14
  15. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    Thx :) Totally forgot him. BagDaddy is also a threat. He won't beat Nadal but should be able to push him. Kinda like Hewitt vs Federer.
     
    #15
  16. GRANITECHIEF

    GRANITECHIEF Hall of Fame

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    Does that mean that you are melancholy right now. Buck up!!!
     
    #16
  17. Shabazza

    Shabazza Legend

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    USO, TMC and AO are the key points for him, if he won't reach the final in both GS and make a good run at the TMC he won't overtake Federer, as he and Fed have pretty much the same amount of points to defend at the other tourneys till Indian Wells!
     
    #17
  18. Simon Cowell

    Simon Cowell Rookie

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    It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.
     
    #18
  19. jaykay

    jaykay Professional

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    You still around, Simon? I thought you had fled these boards after Wimby, no? Simply unbelievable!
     
    #19
  20. shawn1122

    shawn1122 Professional

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    It's nice to see you can still focus on the positive...
     
    #20
  21. superman1

    superman1 Legend

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    Federer has to defend a ton of points, but let's remember who this is. At the very least he will get to all of the finals and lose to Nadal. But you've got to figure that he passed a big hurdle by beating Nadal in Wimbledon and there's no way Nadal is going to be completely dominating him on fast courts. You've also got to figure that there are a couple of damn good players out there on fast courts who could give Nadal some serious problems.

    So yes, I think Fed is going to break the record and stay #1 for a very long time.
     
    #21
  22. zorg

    zorg Professional

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    Doesn't Sampras have the record for most weeks at number 1?
     
    #22
  23. BabolatFan

    BabolatFan Semi-Pro

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    There's a huge likelihood Federer will break the record. Nadal will have a tougher time on hardcourt. There's a bunch of players that can beat him including Blake, Hewitt, etc.,
     
    #23
  24. Bassus

    Bassus Rookie

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    I'll take it you're joking, seeing as how its very unlikely that most who follow tennis would say Nadal is the best right now. And in saying a player played terrible, you always have to balance that against what the opponent did; i.e. how much of it was Nadal's own play and how much of it was Federer imposing himself. The same goes for Federer's seemingly lame effort in the French Open final.


    But anyway, with regards to the race for #1, Nadal certainly has big opportunities to pick up points at the US Open and the Aus, while Federer can only defend points at both. However, if he's healthy this year, Federer will have good opportunities at Madrid and Paris to gain points.

    It should be very interesting. Hopefully both will stay healthy.
     
    #24
  25. zorg

    zorg Professional

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    Why does everyone keep thinking the record is Connors's? It is Sampras, at 286 weeks. Unless I am mistaking, can someone clarify this?
     
    #25
  26. Soundbyte

    Soundbyte Semi-Pro

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    There is no way Nadal will pass Fed. The reason is this: in the tournaments where Nadal is winning, Fed is right there in the final. The difference is Fed is winning Slams and other tourneys where Nadal is knocked out early.
     
    #26
  27. splink779

    splink779 Guest

    Sampras ended 6 years in a row at #1 (I think) but in between others had #1 for short periods such as Agassi, Moya, etc.

    I assume that Federer will remain #1 for quite a while longer. However though, as good as he is, there is always the risk of an early crash at one of the next two majors. That would seriously hurt his point count.
     
    #27
  28. zorg

    zorg Professional

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    Yes but wikipedia says that Sampras had 286 weeks at number1. Also I remember a commercial Sampras was in that said the same.
     
    #28
  29. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    Everyone is talking about at #1 consecutive weeks. Connors holds that record.
     
    #29
  30. zorg

    zorg Professional

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    Meh, I guess I thought it was consecutive but wasn't.
     
    #30
  31. stoffer

    stoffer Rookie

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    Sure Fed has lots of points to defend but he can also add a ton more if he feels Nadal is getting too close. Remember he didnt play TMS Canada, TMS Paris or TMS Madrid.
     
    #31
  32. dh003i

    dh003i Legend

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    zorg,

    Wiki's wrong then. Although a very good source, it occasionally has errors (anyone can edit Wiki: so imagine all of the fanatics tinkering with it).

    Simon,

    So, are you going to take back everything you said about Federer losing, and how Nadal was certainly definately going to beat Federer at the Wimbledon?

    I watched the match. Nadal played poorly? No. Federer played brilliantly in the 1st set, and maybe that made Nadal more nervous as well. In the second set, Federer's level came down, and Nadal played some of his best tennis of the tournament, but Federer still won in the tie-breaker. Sorry, no excuses. The 3rd set, Nadal was ahead, but Federer caught up, and then Nadal played some really great grass-court tennis to take the tie-break. However, in the 4th set, Federer again played pretty brilliantly -- it wasn't as close as it looked, Federer was up 5-1 at one point. Nadal, to his credit, fought to take 2 games, but Federer served out for 6-3 and the match.

    Here's the reality of the Wimbledon: Nadal did play some great grass-court tennis. However, Nadal's best grasscourt tennis -- and that was the best he was playing in the tournament -- was only enough to beat Federer in 1 of 2 tiebreaks. Federer's best grass-court tennis produced 6-0 in the 1st and 6-3 in the 3rd. Like I said, even Nadal basically has to hope that Federer is off to have a chance to beat him on grass.

    And as for how competitive the match was, the Australlian Open was also very competitive, and actually even tougher for Federer in a way, as he lost the first set, which made the rest of the match tougher (no breathing room). Against Nadal, he won the 1st two sets, and Nadal only won a set when he absolutely needed to to stay alive. Andy Roddick also took a set off of Federer at Wimbledon -- so what?

    Sure, it was impressive for Nadal to take a set off of Federer -- no-one else could do it, not even Ancic. Hardly makes a difference, though.
     
    #32
  33. Tennis_Goodness

    Tennis_Goodness Semi-Pro

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    This is the SECOND year where Federer is still clearly number 1 in the world since Nadal emerged!

    The second year which he has dominated the field and is many points ahead of the number 2 (Nadal).

    I think this scenerio is going to play out for years to come, Nadal and Federer will be competitive with eachother, but Federer is too good that Nadal won't be able to catch up to him!
     
    #33
  34. splink779

    splink779 Guest

    I think that it will happen like this for the next year give or take, but once things even out a bit and they both play a full season, it will get close.
     
    #34
  35. Shabazza

    Shabazza Legend

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    Ditto!
     
    #35
  36. donnyz89

    donnyz89 Hall of Fame

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    We gotta see Roger and Nadal on the hardcourts before we make any judgements. Because we know Nadal is improving like mad, is Roger still the king on hardcourts? if they are dead even, then I'm scared for Roger. They had a 5 setter at indian wells before, has nadal surpassed Roger on hard as well? I'm still rootn for Roger because his game is so much more fun to watch than Nadal's hardhitting bashing game.
     
    #36
  37. Marat Safinator

    Marat Safinator Banned

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    Dont remind me....:( THIS IS MARATS YEAR FOR PARIS. 2000,2002,2004...2006... if he loses in paris, this is definately the downfall of safin.
     
    #37
  38. Punisha

    Punisha Professional

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    I have to agree. nadals game to me is a bit boring :(

    If only we could get andy roddick serve volleying, i would love to watch him actually make a touch volley. I think he made 1 out of whole of wimbledon!
     
    #38
  39. Rhino

    Rhino Legend

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    You knew this wasn't true and yet you typed it anyway.
    Simon why do you bother.
    You have lost all credibility on this forum (not that you had much to lose).
    You are extremely predictable and can't cope with the fact that Federer is the number one tennis player in the world by a huge margin of a couple of thousand ranking points. He demolished your boy Rafa in the final of the biggest tournament in the world (bagelling him!!! - even one-shot-wonder Roddick sidestepped that humiliation).
    Rafa will never face a wild card and two qualifiers on his way through to a Wimbledon final ever again, so make the most of it.
    I've got two words for you Simon: 'James' and 'Blake'.
    PS: your failure to update your signatureshows that you cannot take the truth!
    [​IMG]
     
    #39
  40. slack hack

    slack hack Rookie

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    In the Dubai tourney earlier this year, Nadal won their match-up on what Federer called "a fast hardcourt".
     
    #40
  41. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    Great post :)
     
    #41
  42. splink779

    splink779 Guest

    I didn't notice that pattern - forget Nadal and Federer, I'll be rooting for Marat here as well!
     
    #42
  43. ksbh

    ksbh Banned

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    ROFLMAO! Simon, get a life! He's a long way behind in the points. It'll take quite a bit to get to No. 1, not 'just a matter of time'.

    As regards Wimbledon, I think Nadal will get better. For someone with less than 20 matches on grass, he played brilliantly.

    I voted 'Nadal will reach #1, but only after record has been broken'.

     
    #43
  44. ckthegreek

    ckthegreek Rookie

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    On current evidence, Nadal will beat Federer on any surface except Grass. Ceteris paribus Nadal goes No.1 pronto and stays there.
     
    #44
  45. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    What evidence do you have? They never played on super fast court like US Open, never played on indoor hard or carpet.
     
    #45
  46. clayman2000

    clayman2000 Hall of Fame

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    ya i agree...however nadal CAN beat fed on grass--he couldve went up two sets to one---however fed is more consistent (all tourneys played reached finals)
     
    #46
  47. Tchocky

    Tchocky Hall of Fame

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    Wouldn't Nadal have to win the U.S. Open and the Australian Open to surpass Roger? No way, Jose! Vamos, Roger!
     
    #47
  48. TennezSport

    TennezSport Hall of Fame

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    Fast Hard Courts

    I heard through friends at the National Tennis Center that they plan to make the surface even faster this year to help Roddick and Blake. So... it's really going to be very tough on the grinders.

    TS :cool:
     
    #48
  49. 8PAQ

    8PAQ Banned

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    Awesome!
     
    #49
  50. HollerOne5

    HollerOne5 Semi-Pro

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    Not true....all US Open series tournaments this year are supposed to be the exact same speed and type of court, as there were complaints last year in the variations of the surfaces.
     
    #50

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