Rankings Analysis -- Can Fed Lose the No. 1 Spot?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by VamosRafa, Jul 4, 2004.

  1. VamosRafa

    VamosRafa Hall of Fame

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    As I told Nadal2, here's a bit from the rankings guru at Bob Larson Tennis:

    "The question now becomes, Can Fed be overtaken for #1 this year?

    It's a good question. The #2 guy in the Race is Guillermo Coria, and he isn't likely to make up that kind of ground on hardcourt or indoors. The same is true of Carlos Moya, #4 in the Race. Tim Henman, the #5, likes those surfaces a little better -- but he's more than 400 Race points behind Federer; the gap is just too big. That leaves Roddick, the #3 player in the Race. He's almost 300 points behind Federer -- but we have two hardcourt Masters and the U. S. Open coming up. And the Masters Cup. Roddick's loss leaves him a fairly distant #2 -- but he played Federer tough on what is surely a Federer surface; one has to suspect that Roddick will earn more hardcourt points than Federer. Of course, he also has more to defend. A lot more. There seems no chance of him regaining the #1 spot during the hardcourt season. But maybe, just maybe, at the Masters Cup.

    Don't bet too much on it, though. It's going to be a tough task."
     
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  2. Phil

    Phil Hall of Fame

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    Maybe, if he loses every match he plays in from now until November-the first round (unlikely)-or if Roddick has a dominating hard court season like he did last year (also, I think, unlikely to that extent). Coria and Moya aren't factors and neither is "Tiger" Tim. It looks like a two-man race. Don't count out Agassi to play some good hard court; he may have something left.
     
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  3. VamosRafa

    VamosRafa Hall of Fame

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    And I just saw that Moya just pulled out of Bastad due to his shoulder. He played an exhibition in Mallorca this weekend, which he won. Perhaps he wants another week's vacation. :mrgreen:
     
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  4. AAAA

    AAAA Hall of Fame

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    Did the points gained from the Masters Cup last year count towards the year-end rankings? I seem to remember someone saying they did not. That the cut off point for the year was before the end of year championships.
     
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  5. bravestennis

    bravestennis Rookie

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    i thought irt was worth 200, same as a major?
     
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  6. PJVA

    PJVA Rookie

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    Roger plays very well on hardcourt, so I would say he has a good chance of winning the US Open and other hard court events. Last US Open Roger almost beat Nalbandian who was his nemesis that he'd never beaten before. Now Roger seems to have figured how to handle Nalbandian and Hewitt.

    I guess my point is that sure....Roddick could surge ahead, but that's not a given. It's not as if Federer can only play on grass! He won the Australian on rebound ace, he won Indian Wells, and the year end Masters on hardcourt.

    I'd say that a lot will depend on what draws they get in the various tournaments. If one guy has to play several tough matches or has to face a nemesis that takes a lot out physically.
     
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  7. chicagohpch

    chicagohpch Rookie

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    I think grass court is the best surface for Roddick, even though he won US Open last year. Most current top players can compete well on hard court. It's unlikely Roddick will have the same luck he had last year. Besides, more players can return his serve now. It's not as intimidating as it was a couple years ago.
     
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  8. alienhamster

    alienhamster Hall of Fame

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    AAAA--

    My understanding is that last year's Master's Cup points factor into this year's entry ranking all the way up until the week before this year's Master's Cup. At this point those points are shed to determine the seedings for this year's MC. The race standings, however, never factor in the previous year's MC points. So, Federer will actually lose a lot of points entering this year's Cup, which is why it's pretty much Roddick's only chance to get the #1 ranking.

    chicagohpch--
    I'm starting to agree with you about grass being Roddick's best surface. It's not because his game is inherently better on grass; he certainly has better footwork & control on hard courts. It's just that grass rewards his strengths far more than it does for other players, and he gets many more easy matches on it than he does on hard courts. Unfortunately for him, Federer will always be there as a better grass court player.
     
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  9. TwistServe

    TwistServe Guest

    THe only chance roddick has of getting #1 is if he wins the US Open and a few other tornaments, while Fed gets knocked out of the US Open round 1 or 2.. Fed has 746 total points right now, while Roddick has 454. US Open gives 200 points to the winner so even with just that, Roddick would be behind 654 to 747 assuming a 1st round for Fed.

    There's little hope.
     
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  10. tomahawk

    tomahawk New User

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    To me, Roger Federer is already number 1 for the year. Sure the points system is there to determine who is number 1 for the Champions Race, but I've always believed that whoever does the best in the grand slams is the number 1 player in the world. And since Federer has won the Aussie Open and Wimbledon, that would put him head and shoulders above everyone else. I would find it hard to dispute that.
     
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  11. Vlad

    Vlad Professional

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    There is no way Fed can lose his #1 spot. Roddick will not be able to win 3 big tournaments this summer like he did last year. The field is more competitive right now. There is Fed who is playing excellent on hard courts, Safin (could make a run on his favorite surface), Hewitt, Moya (always pushes Roddick but never wins), Henman (beat Roddick few times), Coria, etc. There are just too many playes Roddick has to overcome to become #1. It is not going to happen.
     
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  12. Chanchai

    Chanchai Semi-Pro

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    I am pretty certain Federer will be #1 the entire year. As long as he's performing well (in fact, as long as he's performing as well or better than last year), he'll be distant from the rest of the field.

    Here's a breakdown of being close to equal or improving his performances on last year's schedule (I don't know how different his schedule is this year-sorry):

    (Summer Hardcourt Season + 1 Clay)
    -Gstaad: Finalist or Champion (24 pts) -- lost to Novak in final
    -TMS Canada: Semifinalist or better (45 pts) -- lost to Roddick in SF
    -TMS Cincinnati: 2nd Round or better (7 pts) -- lost to Nalbandian in R32
    -US Open: R16 (4th round) or better (30 pts) -- lost to Nalbandian in R16

    (European Season - mostly indoor I think)
    -Vienna: Champion (50 pts) -- defeated Moya in final
    -TMS Madrid: Semifinals or Better (45 pts) -- lost to Ferrero in SF
    -Basel: 2nd Round or better (5 pts) -- lost to Ljubicic in R16
    -TMS Paris: Quarterfinals or better (25 pts) -- lost to Henman in QF

    And yes, the Masters Cup championship carries 150 points to defend.

    Total Points to Defend = 381 pts

    I don't think Federer needs to build more on his schdule, but he kept his summer hardcourt schedule pretty small last year.

    -Chanchai
     
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  13. Chanchai

    Chanchai Semi-Pro

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    Some other points to defend (Roddick and Coria). Roddick gained some points at Wimbledon, lost some points from Australia and others (and gained some in Miami obviously). I'll start with Roddick.

    RODDICK
    Indianapolis - Champion (40 pts)
    Washington - Semifinals or better (18 pts) -- lost to Henman
    TMS Canada - Champion (100 pts)
    TMS Cincinnati - Champion (100pts)
    US Open - Champion (200 pts)
    ---
    TMS Madrid - Third Round (R16) or better (15 pts) -- lost to Massu
    Basel - Semifinals or better (22 pts) -- lost to Nalbandian
    TMS Paris - Semifinals or better (45 pts) -- lost to Henman
    --
    Masters Cup - Semifinals w/ 2 RR wins or better (40pts) -- lost to Schuettler & Federer

    Total Points to Defend = 458 pts

    He can improve his Autumn rankings, but the hard part is obviously the summer and masters cup.

    CORIA
    Stuttgart - Champion (50 pts)
    Kitzbuhel - Champion (60 pts)
    Sopot - Champion (35 pts)
    TMS Canada - Anything (1 pt) -- lost to Lopez
    TMS Cincinnati - Quarterfinals or better (25 pts) -- lost to Mirnyi
    US Open - Quarterfinals or better (50 pts) -- lost to Agassi
    ---
    Basel - Champion (50 pts)
    TMS Paris - Third Round (R16) or better (15 pts) -- lost to Pavel
    ---
    Masters Cup - 1 RR Win or better (20pts) -- lost to Schuettler and Roddick

    Total Points to Defend = 306 pts

    The hard part for Coria is to retain those clay tournament points in the summer or perform well at alternative tournaments with larger points. TMS Canada will be easy (obviously) and assuming a similar schedule as last year, he can gain a lot of points in Madrid. Right now it seems clear he's going to be at the Masters Cup, so assuming he does, I expect him to improve his record there easily, having to win at least one round robin match just to hold those points.

    ----

    And then there's Moya who is still in the running. Though you wonder because of his shoulder and all. Pulling out of Bastad (or so I think), he lost 15 points there. But I will count those 15 pts in "points to defend." (let me know if I got that all wrong)

    Summer (he lost the first round of all TMS) 15+1+35+1+1+1+30 = 84
    Autumn 8+35+15+20 = 78
    TOTAL POINTS TO DEFEND = 159

    Okay... Moya is currently 4th behind Roddick by 40 pts in the ATP Race (Roddick is behind Coria by 25 pts. Coria is behind Roger by 267 pts.). Moya can EASILY MAKE A JUMP TO 3rd under various conditions, assuming his shoulder heals (if I'm correct in him hurting his shoulder). I forgot that Moya had a great clay court season this year. However, note that I'm discussing race positions here, because those are scores already counted. However, it should definitely be noted that race points do differ a bit from Entry Ranking points.

    -Chanchai
     
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  14. prince

    prince Semi-Pro

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    when someone amputates feds right arm maybe.......
     
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  15. VamosRafa

    VamosRafa Hall of Fame

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    I don't know; I think he'd also be at a disadvantage if someone amputed his left arm. I know his bh is his weakest shot, but it's his prettiest. :wink:
     
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  16. big ted

    big ted Hall of Fame

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    all roddick has to do is win the usopen and win the masters and he should be no 1 the champions race has nothing to do with defending points thats the entry system. if fed doesnt make the finals of either of these roddick could do it. i certainly dont see fed making the finals of the usopen this year
     
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  17. Nadal2

    Nadal2 Rookie

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    You can't be serious! :lol: All Roddick has to do? That's a pretty big task for any player. Roddick is almost 300 points back, which is a slam and a half worth of race points. And I don't think that Roddick will have as successful a hard court summer as he did last year, when Roddick beat Federer for the only time, in a close 3rd set tiebreak. Not to mention that the last time they played on hard courts Federer beat Roddick pretty comfortably in two sets. So I would expect a close rivalry between Roddick and Federer on hard courts. And yes, Federer is good enough on hard courts to make the US Open final, but beating Roddick on the higher bouncing hard courts of Flushing Meadows is another story.
     
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  18. PJVA

    PJVA Rookie

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    Chicagohpch, that's just what I was thinking. Grass is probably Roddick's best surface because of grass enhancing the serve and making it quite important to the game of all players.

    I think there will be more competition on hardcourt from the other players, and like I said before a lot could depend simply on who Roddick or Federer get in their draws. If one of them draws Hewitt, Nalbandian, and Coria all in the same half they will have to do a lot of running and that would affect them in the final if they get there.

    Furthermore.....Henman beat Roddick on hardcourt at Indian Wells. Even Henman could be a factor.
     
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  19. TwistServe

    TwistServe Guest

    Heman can knock out a few top seeds here and there, but he can't consistently win 7 straight matches to be a slam champ. He's record speaks for himself. I doubt he will be a factor.
     
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  20. SonicSpeed

    SonicSpeed Rookie

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    It's mathematically possible but I would bet against it. Fed is a total lock for #1. The only chance for Andy to get #1, IMO, would have been to win the Wimby final, which he obviously didn't.

    I don't think he can do a brilliant repeat of last year's summer run either, but I would be more than happy if he could lol.
     
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