RG 'll lose its credibility if Nole is on Rafa's side of the draw 4 time in a row

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Dutch-Guy, May 16, 2009.

  1. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
    But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
    Are these draws really random?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2009
    #1
  2. edberg505

    edberg505 Legend

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    You know what would be really funny is if Novak does end up on Federer's side and Federer kicks his teeth in, now that would be funny!
     
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  3. Giggs The Red Devil

    Giggs The Red Devil Rookie

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    Chelsea met Liverpool 3 times in a row in the Champions League. What’s your point?
     
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  4. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    There you go. Which means that the probability of Djokovic ending up 4 times on Nadal's side is exactly the same as the probability of any other possible configuration of draws in 4 years.
     
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  5. weallwegot

    weallwegot Rookie

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    Big deal, either way its going to be Nadal vs Federer in finals. :twisted:
     
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  6. CocaCola

    CocaCola Professional

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    I have a felling that its gonna be the 4th time...then Fed will have a walkover to the final...again.
     
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  7. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    It depends on which you're talking about: The Djoko that played against Rafa today or the one that can't stand the heat in Australia?
     
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  8. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    4 times in a row can't be "random" anymore.Come on!!!
     
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  9. Djokovic better not be on Nadal's side this year or else we'll have something similar to the situation today - it felt like a final but it wasn't a final.

    Djokovic deserves not to have Nadal on his side. He's been playing too well lately.

    Regardless of what happens tomorrow, Djokovic is definitely the second best clay-courter.
     
    #9
  10. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    It can be and it is. Do you know anything about probability? Go flip a coin 100 times and tell me how often it's heads 4 times in a row.
     
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  11. All-rounder

    All-rounder Legend

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    if you guys want djokovic to be on federer's side of the draw then he should have capitalised back in january when he had a chance to take no 2 off of him
     
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  12. The Pure One

    The Pure One Rookie

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    Agree! To me the Madrid final was today, like the past weeks. Let's admit it, Djoker and Nadal in the FO final can be a better match and be more interesting than Nadal-Fed final.
     
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  13. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    I know as much as you about probabilty.My point stands that if Nole lands on Rafa's side of the draw for the 4th time then that draw is rigged.
     
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  14. Giggs The Red Devil

    Giggs The Red Devil Rookie

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    Every good conspiracy theory needs a motive. Why? Why are those frenchies fix the draw so Djokovic will be in Nadal’s half?
     
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  15. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    I'm not following you. So something that's perfectly normal and has a fifty percent chance of happening proves that the French Open hates Djokovic and will do everything they can to keep him from making the final?
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2009
    #15
  16. gj011

    gj011 Banned

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    Agree completely. If Djokovic is in Nadals half of the draw in RG for the 4th time in a row it would be quite fishy.
     
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  17. gj011

    gj011 Banned

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    Because they want Federer in the final. Even if he does not deserve it.
     
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  18. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    I disagree. He's been in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It's about time they put him in the top half!
     
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  19. Kozak

    Kozak New User

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    First of all, I dont believe that the draw is fixed, but I am very good at my math, especially probability and statistics, and the chances are for Novak to be on Federer side of the draw four times in a row are 6.25%.



    -
     
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  20. All-rounder

    All-rounder Legend

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    I don't undertstand why people are getting worked up about this its just one slam where djokovic is on the same side as nadal he wasn't on the same side at AO or US open or even wimbledon (from last year if he progressed)

    If its fixed theres nothing that can be done
     
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  21. gj011

    gj011 Banned

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    I disagree. #3 seed was in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It is time to put #3 seed in the top half.
     
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  22. Giggs The Red Devil

    Giggs The Red Devil Rookie

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    You have to go through six rounds to get to the final. I doubt the organisers have so much faith in Federer. Maybe Djokovic will have "luck" this year.
     
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  23. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    They don't hate Djokovic,they kinda want Fed to be in the finals.
     
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  24. Hot Sauce

    Hot Sauce Hall of Fame

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    RG really cares that you think it is not credible.
     
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  25. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    So it's good for you coz it's the "only" slam where they always meet in the semis?
     
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  26. rubberduckies

    rubberduckies Professional

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    Given that they've been on the same side the last 3 times, the probability it happens a 4th time is 1/2.

    Draw isn't rigged. Flip 4 coins, and you have a 1/16 chance of it landing with 4 heads. Stranger things happen.

    Now scheduling on the other hand .........
     
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  27. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    Care or not i'm just voicing my opinion,which i'm entitled to.
     
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  28. nhat8121

    nhat8121 Semi-Pro

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    if he's good enough to beat nadal in the semi, then he's good enough to win the final...so who cares
     
    #28
  29. Dave M

    Dave M Hall of Fame

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    Surely it's just a 50 50 chance each time it happens that he'll be top or bottom half of the draw?Maybe he'll be in the same half of the draw again but Nadal might nt be as he's no.1 this year?
     
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  30. All-rounder

    All-rounder Legend

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    whether they meet or not there will always be nadal awaiting them if not in the semi's then the finals
     
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  31. skip1969

    skip1969 Legend

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    tourney's been around since 1891. somehow, i think it's (officially) bigger than nadal, nole, or any other player that gets randomly drawn in the same half . . . for however many years in a row.

    what is UP today?? i mean, i know nadal had a close match, but why is everyone pressing the friggin' PANIC button?
     
    #31
  32. Jimmyk459

    Jimmyk459 Rookie

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    this thread is really dumb
     
    #32
  33. Dutch-Guy

    Dutch-Guy Legend

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    Then why react on a "dumb" thread?
     
    #33
  34. bruce38

    bruce38 Banned

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    4 times in a row is just as probable as any other specific configuration. If he he had flipped from in the 1st and 3rd years it would have just seemed more random, but it isn't.
     
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  35. skip1969

    skip1969 Legend

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    #35
  36. rod99

    rod99 Professional

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    conspiracy theory posts are beyond ridiculous. there is no such thing as a "rigged draw" at any tournament. posts like this make the original poster look foolish.
     
    #36
  37. autumn_leaf

    autumn_leaf Hall of Fame

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    well since each time it's independent then it's 50%. 4 times in a row though is .5*.5*.5*.5 = .0625. so around 6%

    but this is like going to a roulette table and seeing red came up 3 times in a row and thinking the chances of a 4th red is going to be 6% so black is a ~90% chance of coming up.
     
    #37
  38. bruce38

    bruce38 Banned

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    1st year - Rafa's half, 2nd year - Fed's half, 3rd year - Rafa's half, 4th year - Fed's half .... IS also equal to 6% chance!
     
    #38
  39. oscar_2424

    oscar_2424 Legend

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    Gaudio will take eithr FEderer or Djokovic out in the second round. mark my words
     
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  40. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    LOL. Touché.
     
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  41. maddogz32

    maddogz32 Semi-Pro

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    it doesnt matter, because everyone knows its gonna be nadal vs. federer or djokovic in the final
     
    #41
  42. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    I really think the 3 and 4 should alternate by slams. The rest can be random though but those 2 positions are very crucial and need to be evened out.
     
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  43. bruce38

    bruce38 Banned

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    It should be done how most other major sports do it - make it 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 every time and leave it like that so it's up to the players with rankings to decide. No surprises that way.
     
    #43
  44. Nadal_Freak

    Nadal_Freak Banned

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    The matchups get boring that way. We need more matchups to keep tennis interesting. There are way more tournaments in tennis than other major sports.
     
    #44
  45. clayman2000

    clayman2000 Hall of Fame

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    In that case, Novak will be in Nadal's half for the 4th straight year. Why? Djokovic will be the fourth seed as he is currently the no 4 player in the world
     
    #45
  46. bruce38

    bruce38 Banned

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    The majority of the grand slams in the last few years have been Fed-Nadal finals, hasn't gotten boring yet, at least not for me. 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 will always be exciting when you have 4 such greats consistently at the top. Plus with #3 and #4 flip-flopping recently and possibly also #2 in the future, you'll get the variety that you crave. The rankings should decide who plays who, not random chance. The rankings are there to give the top seeds the advantage in tournaments. Hence it is only fair that #1 get to play #4.
     
    #46
  47. Chadwixx

    Chadwixx Banned

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    Ya because the same players play every tournament, never get injured, rankings never change and always make it to where they are supposed to in the draw.

    There are alot of variables that would keep the draws fresh every week.

    Its silly to go against the mathmatical equally the draw (tournament format) was made to preform.
     
    #47
  48. Chadwixx

    Chadwixx Banned

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    Hewitt was in feds side of the draw for 16 straight tourneys after he sued the atp a few years ago :)
     
    #48
  49. lidoazndiabloboi

    lidoazndiabloboi Professional

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    I completely agree with this idea.
    If you wanna say this is boring, then just accept the fact that the draws are completely random and there's no such thing as a "rigged" draw.

    Djokovic vs Federer FO final anyone????
     
    #49
  50. bdawg

    bdawg Semi-Pro

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    assuming each draw is an independent event. the probability of Djokovic ending up on Nadal's half is 1/2.

    1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = (1/2)^4= 0.0625 = 6.25%
     
    #50

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