Roger's decline can be very clearly explained by one thing

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by Agassifan, Nov 27, 2011.

  1. CDestroyer

    CDestroyer Professional

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    Congrats to Rodga for winning his 6th WTF title. He is playing very good.
     
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  2. Avles

    Avles Hall of Fame

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    I really don't buy this explanation. Federer can make a case for being one of the best servers on tour right now. He has won 79% of his first service points this year, and 89% of his service games. That's good enough for second place on the tour in both categories (behind Raonic and Isner respectively). And it's better than his career averages-- in fact I think those numbers equal his career best. His first serve % this year is also higher than his career average.

    It's possible that these great numbers mask the fact that his serve deserts him when he needs it most, but I'm dubious, especially since you'd expect the serve to decline less with age than other aspects of the game.
     
    #52
  3. Lawn Tennis

    Lawn Tennis Semi-Pro

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    +1 for some reason, people never want to give credit to the other player. Federer has a losing record against Djokovic this year. Does that mean Federer is declining - no, it means Djokovic has improved, hence his record season.
     
    #53
  4. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    I agree. It seems as though, judging from the last two months, Djok and Ralph have paid a heavy price for their '11 battles. As I posted at least once, it reminds me of the heavyweight boxing scenario of the 70's. Ali/Frazier 1thru3 created an opening for Foreman to become kingpin, only to be undone by a rejuvenated, craftier Ali in the Rumble in the Jungle. Ali came back strong, Frazier disappeared and Foreman was crushed for a long while. Can Fed reprise Ali's role for a return to the top spot? We'll see in '12!
     
    #54
  5. Lawn Tennis

    Lawn Tennis Semi-Pro

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    Federer says he's still improving. I think the biggest question for Federer in 2012 is his mental ability. When he is 100% focused, he is clearly the best tennis player in the world. Better than Rafa and Djoko's 100%.
     
    #55
  6. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    Yes, and now word (not confirmed) that Mirka is pregnant. Boy (pun not intended), '12 has a heavy serving on Fed's plate...Project 17, DC, Olympics and added parenthood? If anyone can do it, that would be SexiMasterClassRogi!
     
    #56
  7. chrischris

    chrischris Hall of Fame

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    The only decline around is the appreciation of Fed's greatness.. not to worry , those who know this game are in awe. The rest is static.
     
    #57
  8. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    That's silly. Why can't you just accept that players today are faster and stronger than those of the 60s and 70s? The former just could not compete with the firepower of today's players. It's no shame to admit that. Laver was the undisputed great of his era but he firmly belongs to that era and nowhere else. If peak Laver was transported from his era to the present and faced Murray (or any other top player) he would barely be able to get his racquet on any of his serves! Laver himself would be the first to admit that.
    The comparison is just pointless.
     
    #58
  9. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    ^^^

    Believe as you wish...the two eras are incomparable. Tennis is not a "measured" sport. Usain Bolt beats Jesse Owens, no question asked but why?
    Evolution is the answer. Millenia man is bigger, faster, stronger than 30's man. Training, nutrition, technology all have improved.

    Tennis talent is not a "measurable" commodity. My point was if Murray and Laver ever met on a level playing field...Murray in the 60's OR Laver in the 10's, the result wouldn't be close. Bankroll Laver's talent with the $$$ now available and add the genetic evolution of man in affluent societies and you would have a six-foot-or-so player for the ages competing with Fed for GOAT status. Harness Murray with 60's shamateurism and genetics, wood racquet technology and low-grade training of those times and he's no different than the top 10er's of that era.
     
    #59
  10. IvanAndreevich

    IvanAndreevich Legend

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    Looking at the stats, it's his return of serve that's declined. He's SECOND in % of service games won. Come on!

    The problem is that he's 17th in returning the FIRST serve.

    He used to dominate big servers like it's nothing.
     
    #60
  11. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    The Tsonga QF Wimby match stats back your claim...1 BP per match doesn't cut it. It seems as though that issue has been addressed since then.
     
    #61
  12. varsity8993

    varsity8993 Rookie

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    It's nothing that complicated. Try having kids and staying as focused on ANYTHING as before you had them. And as your kids get older and you have to worry about more things like their education, health (vaccines, diet, athletics, etc. all rolled into one), finances (well, not so much in Fed's case).... it only gets harder.

    I don't even think about starting new businesses anymore now that I have kids, just maintaining my current business interests and giving time to my kids is full time as it is.

    It's a testament to his pure talent and drive (even fading drive) that he still is near the top of the game.
     
    #62
  13. IvanisevicServe

    IvanisevicServe Banned

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    I'm not seeing Roger attempt and make the same types of shots he made in 03-06, though. It's Roger who's not reacting as well. The Federer we've seen since the 2007 Australian Open is mostly a "game plan" guy. He only rarely hits the "inventive" shot, or goes up a gear and starts blasting the ball from mid-air. He doesn't have as much variety as before. I mean, he still has some variety, but it seems much more contrived now.

    The wrist flicks and carved backhand drop shots out of nowhere from before have been replaced with predictable forehand drop shots and "squash" shots, when he's on the full stretch.

    Stylistically, he's just different. He still gets strong results with this new style, but for whatever reason, he has been a different player from 2007 on. That doesn't necessarily mean if he were playing his old style that he'd be dominating like before...but he'd be more fun to watch IMO.
     
    #63
  14. nikdom

    nikdom Hall of Fame

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    Sure. But here is a healthy dose of reality from an unlikely source on this phenomenon of not playing as freely once the weight of certain expectations set in and a player's game matures -

    Take the teenager part out (since its about Nadal in his early stages - when he was a teenager) and supplant it with Roger's ascent.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2011
    #64
  15. nikdom

    nikdom Hall of Fame

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    ^^ Btw, I'm not arguing with you that vintage Roger wasn't more fun to watch. Just saying that as far as a realistic career is concerned, this talk of decline is really overblown when he really is the only credible threat to the current prime players.
     
    #65
  16. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I agree his decline is overblown. He is past his prime but not enormously weaker either. That said Federer in his prime would never end a year 1-4 against Djokovic. Federer has none of the matchup problems with Djokovic that Nadal has, and is just a better player if both are in their primes, especialy on any medium to fast court (Djokovic might be slightly better on rebound ace, and close to the same level on clay).
     
    #66
  17. OTMPut

    OTMPut Hall of Fame

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    beg to differ. different kinds of problems. at different level.
     
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  18. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    Rebound Ace? Fed won on that twice at AO'04 & '06. I think you mean Plexicushion that the Aussies installed in '07. Djok's advantage will be determined by how fast the committee decides to make the Plexicushion.
     
    #68
  19. IvanisevicServe

    IvanisevicServe Banned

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    3 times - 04, 06, and 07.
     
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  20. snark

    snark Rookie

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    You seriously think that Fed has a problem with finances at any level??
     
    #70
  21. chrischris

    chrischris Hall of Fame

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    Quite overblown.
     
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  22. maruzo

    maruzo Semi-Pro

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    I spray myself with a touch of Eau de Fed and cleanse myself with the nutriting milk from FairMirka's breasts. Then i pray mightily hard for the Fed Express to once again bring the rain and dominate ATP for the coming year.
     
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  23. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    My bad...thought the change came a year earlier.
     
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  24. CDestroyer

    CDestroyer Professional

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    Feds decline can be defined as one thing, his win loss record at the end of the 2011 season. 22 - 0

    Great thread OP! Just kidding, you couldn't possibly be more wrong more often.
     
    #74
  25. Polaris

    Polaris Hall of Fame

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    22-0? Really?
     
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  26. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    Methinks 22-0 will happen somewhere in the early rounds of AO'12 if he plays and wins Doha.

    So weird...notice the time stamp: 2:22am.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2011
    #76
  27. power level 800

    power level 800 Semi-Pro

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    Decline? After the U.S. Open Federer went undefeated for the remainder of the year. Something the best 8 mens in tennis couldn't accomplish this year. IMO it's just might be a little bit too soon to say.
     
    #77
  28. stringertom

    stringertom G.O.A.T.

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    The easy definition of "decline" used by most posters on TT is in number of major titles. When the bar is set so high, any dropoff is magnified.

    I think Fed did have a plateau in '10, with the losses in major QFs to Sod & Berd. In great fashion, he addressed that issue with his alliance with P'Cone. The Renaissance began with USO SF MPs vs Djok, not converted but proof he was just about there after only two months together. The Fall swing was outstanding and things looked great til the AO'11 SF. That's when the Djok juggernaut commenced. Djok will not sneak up on Fed in '12. I hope his training regimen is focused on developing what he needs to get over the small humps he stumbled on in '11. He's still right there!
     
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