Here is the current rankings projection of a sort for the future top 10 with notes on the likely big movers (the players current points less their points from early 2017 through RG; players who had a great 2nd half to 2017 naturally up higher on this list):
1 Roger Federer 5560 (unlikely to play clay)
2 Rafael Nadal 3730
3 Grigor Dimitrov 3730
4 Alexander Zverev 2740 (solid ranking even with the loss of 1000 points for Rome)
5 Marin Cilic 2625
6 David Goffin 2200 (will move up rankings during clay season)
7 Kevin Anderson 2185 (Anderson makes top 10 with good early hard court season)
8 Juan Martin Del Potro 2080 (A shoe in if he's not injured)
9 Jack Sock 1880
10 Sam Querrey 1655
11 John Isner 1610
12 Adrian Mannarino 1290
13 Roberto Bautista Agut 1260
14 Diego Schwartzman 1205 (On the move upwards with a good clay season)
15 Damir Dzumhur 1180 (On the move upwards with a good clay season)
16 Lucas Pouille 1165
17 Filip Krajinovic 1117 (On the move upwards with a good clay season)
18 Nick Kyrgios 1110 (unlikely to play great on clay so Auz Open huge)
19 Andrey Rublev 1091 (SEE BELOW)
20 Dominic Thiem 1075 (likely to have another great clay season, top 20 player off clay)
21 Tomas Berdych 1045
22 Gilles Muller 1015
Rublev is playing really well to start out 2018 and has clearly had an excellent conditioning session over the off-season training with Thiem's group. Rublev's serve game is still a relative weakness, but his return game has been on the rise for several years and the early signs show Rublev with much more stamina and vastly better footwork to start out 2018. Here is his progression on return (forgive the reused graphic):
The bolded above show Rublev's impressive progress over the last few years with return points won. Chung and Coric are more typical for developing players with return games generally not showing great leaps early in a player's career and then leveling out and declining after age 24. The 6' 2", scrawny Rublev is a very, very different. His numbers have been building based on a strong 2nd return game where he just punishes lesser serves. Now in early 2018, Rublev has made a huge leap forward in stamina and footwork from just a few months ago (doubting this?, catch his recent match with a goating wall of rebounding Pella in Doha where Rublev turns it on at the end of the match.)
What this means is Rublev is going to have another jump in his return numbers this year and will have himself a top notch return game (much better than Kyrgios, Zverev, and just about all the rest save Thiem who has improved in early 2018 markedly.) Rublev's is an odd return game mind you because its really driven by 2nd return.
Even without a great serve (and his first serve kept him in the match with Pella by the skin of his teeth), this won't matter nearly as much on clay. Rublev has all the tools to have a great clay season and squeak into the top 10 by the conclusion of Roland Garros. If Rublev beats the wiley and resurgent Monfils in the Doha final tomorrow he'll move up to 15 on this list and will only need to gain about 700 points on Querrey and Sock to pass them by the end of RG.
Feel free to comment on any player listed above and their likely ranking come grass season.
I bet 130 pound Rublev is going to get a serious injury as a boy's body cannot play with the massive men on the tour. Plus Rublev seems like a nasty kid , too. Then again the depth in today's game is getting pretty damn weak
