Should I be concerned about my rating?

Discussion in 'Adult League & Tournament Talk' started by seleswannabe, Jul 16, 2013.

  1. seleswannabe

    seleswannabe Rookie

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    I am a bit worried about my NRTP and I'm curious to know what you folks think.

    I am 38, currently playing on a 4.0 18 & over women's team. In the past i have played primarily singles, usually #1, but have had success at doubles when my team needs me to play dubs.

    My history:
    * 3.0 for 2 years, got bumped up to 3.5
    * played 1/2 year at 3.5 and took a 1/2 year off to have my 3rd child.
    * came back, I was a 3.5 for an additional 2 years before being bumped up this past Dec. In 2011 my record was 9-4, 2012 6-1 with my only loss at district playoffs to the # 1 singles player who's team advanced.

    Fast forward to this year. I am New Kid on the Block with my 4.0 team. My first match I played #1S I lost 6-4, 4-6, 10-7 to an establish 4.0 player. 2nd match won 7-5, 6-3 at 2 dubs. Last week things went awry. Not sure what the heck happened, but my doubles partner and I lost 6-3, 6-3 to two strong 3.5 players :confused: We are friends and have known each other for a long time, but had never played together. All I can say is our styles did not work well together.

    Based on this info, do you think I have reason to worry about my ranking? This last match has me a little freaked out.
     
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  2. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    Hard to tell with the information provided, there are simply too many variables without more specifics on the players involved, but my guess would be no, you aren't in danger of getting bumped down. The first loss could have actually helped your rating, the second likely helped depending on partner and opponents, and even losing 6-3,6-3 to 3.5s probably wouldn't be enough to drop you that much, particularly if the 3.5s are on their way to being bumped up.

    But if you are interested in a more thorough analysis, contact me and I can generate an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report for you.
     
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  3. seleswannabe

    seleswannabe Rookie

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    Thanks for your thoughts. The two 3.5's have def. been winning most of their 3.5 matches and this was not their first 4.0 victory. They have each won 1-2 matches at 4.0.
     
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  4. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    If you get bumped down, which is very unlikely in your case, what's the big deal?
     
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  5. seleswannabe

    seleswannabe Rookie

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    It's not earth shattering if I do get bumped down. I'll cope :) I was just curious to know what an objective person thought about the scenario.
     
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  6. anubis

    anubis Hall of Fame

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    You typically need at least 3 matches to start to calculate NTRP (which you have), but doubles matches count for a little less than singles (since two people are playing).

    If you had been playing singles and lost all three matches, then I would imagine that unless you win the rest of your matches, you'd be bumped down. But since you're playing doubles and your partner also gets some of the blame, I don't think you'll get bumped down on these results alone.
     
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  7. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    Really, you lose 1 match and now you are freaking out about getting bumped down. There are much better things to obsess about. A couple observations.

    1) The system calculates a running average but it does so in a way that emphasizes your best results and downplays your poor performances.

    2) Yes, losing to middling 3.5's should lower your rating, but your loss was relatively close (only 6 games) and you probably would need 2 or 3 more of these to be in jeopardy.

    3) Even if bumped down you can always play up.

    4) You were a bench marked player last year and I believe that as a bench marked player you need to stay up for two seasons. This was published a couple years ago, but I am not 100% on this point.
     
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  8. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    I don't believe this is true and you've misinterpreted the USTA's use of "maximum" as referring to the "largest 3" prior ratings when I believe they are really saying "no more than 3" prior ratings.
     
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  9. dizzlmcwizzl

    dizzlmcwizzl Hall of Fame

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    Perhaps you are right ... it could be read either way, and your interpretation does seem to make more sense.

    However, I think you will agree that the system does seem to have a "downward stickiness" ... a term proposed initially introduced by the Sphynx and captures the general trend in the USTA that it is far more likely people get moved up than moved down.
     
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  10. goran_ace

    goran_ace Hall of Fame

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    Exactly. If for some reason you somehow get bumped down to 3.5 you can still play 4.0. I don't understand the concern.

    People are usually more worried about being bumped up.
     
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  11. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    It may not be common, but I've heard of some clubs/teams that don't allow players to play up, so getting bumped down eliminates the opportunity to play on a preferred team or with friends and regular teammates.
     
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  12. schmke

    schmke Professional

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    The system as a whole might, but the algorithm itself doesn't. I think the "stickiness" you mention is for two reasons.

    First, players are allowed to play up where it is hard for a rating to go down and there is a lot of opportunity to improve one's rating, so these players are going to trend upward. Of course, the at-level players having to play the players playing up could have a negative impact on their ratings if they don't do well.

    Second, and more important, year-end ratings are due to more than just the dynamic rating algorithm. There are additional benchmark calculations to try to normalize a level across sections that may have an upward bias, and we've seen the USTA be willing to do mass bump ups (but no mass bump downs to my knowledge) which would also cause a general trend upward.
     
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  13. J_R_B

    J_R_B Hall of Fame

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    Also, people generally tend to improve as opposed to get worse.
     
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  14. seleswannabe

    seleswannabe Rookie

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    I hear ya'll. I simply prefer the competition level at 4.0 in my area. Additionally schmke's comments regarding playing up at my club are true. If you are a 3.5 it is virtually impossible to play 4.0 unless you are a "sacrafice".
     
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  15. SunshineJS

    SunshineJS New User

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    This is false... There are so many misconceptions of what being a benchmark means, it's crazy! First benchmarks only stay on for one year, so keeping said player up for a minimum amount of time would be pointless.

    Scenario:
    Someone participated in districts/sectionals as a 3.0 and gets bumped up just across the threshold to a 3.5 (lets say 3.02) while gaining a benchmark rating for the following year. They then tear every ligament in their knee but still try to play later in the season. With extremely hamper mobility and playing at the higher level, the player loses all 10 matches they play by an average of 1&1.

    If what you stated would be true, then in the above scenario that player would be left as a 3.5 for another entire year. Which would not make very much sense.
     
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  16. SunshineJS

    SunshineJS New User

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    +1

    There are lots of other variables that go in at the end of the year. If tournament results count towards ratings in a player's section, those aren't counted until then. Additionally, there are several sections/districts that have smaller local leagues, which count towards year-end ratings but are not a National league, and thus don't count towards a players dynamic rating. Also, if you happen to play a self-rated player in doubles, that might not calculate a dynamic for that match but will retroactively go into a player's year-end rating.
     
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  17. DirtBaller4

    DirtBaller4 Rookie

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    I hear ya!

    Club ratings and random doubles partners are a troubling mix for me as well.

    The closer I get to 4.0 the worse the partner they give me and bamn! I loose and I get to play with even crappier players next week.
     
    #17
  18. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    Any team that's worth playing for will choose it's lineup based on actual ability, and not based on ratings. Usually, ratings are meaningful, but not always, and team captain should recognize that.
     
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  19. asimple

    asimple Semi-Pro

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    I think this is only partially true. There definitely is an inherent bias against you if your rating is at a lower level. I was the top singles player on a couple of 4.5 teams as a 4.0 but it required a lot of proof on the court. It's funny though as even though I am in this position, I also share the same bias against 4.0s.
     
    #19
  20. roman40

    roman40 Rookie

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    I've never seen 4.0 #1 singles player on a 4.5 team. If you didn't get DQed or bumped after a few matches, USTA is not doing it's job (unless you played on the worst 4.5 team on the planet). You proved my point though :)
     
    #20
  21. asimple

    asimple Semi-Pro

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    If I went through the details of my year I don't know that I would fully prove your point, but yes it is possible to play up. I pretty much had to beat everyone on the team to get my spot, but a lot of this was due to the captain.

    I'm a 4.0C so can't get bumped until next year.
     
    #21

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