Should the draw favor the top ranked player? Not in the ATP

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by tennis_pro, Oct 13, 2012.

  1. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    Ever since Nadal's wheels fell off at Wimbledon, we have 3 players who compete for titles these days - Federer, Djokovic and Murray. As Fed and Djoko are the top ranked players, the only virtual threat is Murray who is "randomly" placed in either half of the draw. Ironically, Murray the 3rd seed, has more often than not landed in Federer's draw.

    The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
    Canada - Federer didn't play but if he did he would be drawn with Murray in one half (the no 1 and 3 seeds were in 1 half)
    Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
    the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
    Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer

    I wouldn't be surprised if Murray landed in Federer's half in Paris and the WTF.
     
    #1
  2. dangalak

    dangalak Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2012
    Messages:
    608
    This isn't nearly on the level of the obvious draw rigging of Djokovic and Federer semifinals. :lol: Statistically impossible.

    "It's not impossible, just improbable." Yeah, improbable. As improbable as you rolling a dice 200 times and still getting the same result.

    What you are basically doing is, the ATP is telling you that they flipped a coin 19 times and 15 times it was heads and you believe them, instead of the far more plausible solution that the draw is rigged. How about some real estate on the moon?
     
    #2
  3. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    12,435

    I think you're overstating Murray's threat to Federer. Even in this golden autumn of the Swiss's career, he can dish out quite a punishment when on form. If he is to win the tournament he needs to be on form. If he isn't, then he simply doesn't deserve to win does he? :)
     
    #3
  4. Zildite

    Zildite Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,903
    3/5 and one of those he didn't even play, seems a stretch at this point to call it into question.
     
    #4
  5. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    I take anyone not named Murray to be drawn with Federer in his half, then. Whether it's Berdych, Tsonga or Ferrer. Berdych would probably be the biggest ask but when playing decent Federer is the firm favorite, against Murray he has to play well.
     
    #5
  6. SQA333

    SQA333 Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2012
    Messages:
    1,447
    No. Draws should be completely random.
     
    #6
  7. Pouet156

    Pouet156 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    163
    Well, they usually are. You cannot draw conclusion about randomness on like... 5 events.

    As for the Djokovic / Federer "rigging" .. when you look at the seeding number and not the names behind the seed (that is what is drawn : numbers) it was something like number 3 was drawn 8 times with #1 and 10 times with #2 so it was sufficiently close to 50-50 ...
    Unfortunately, Fed and Novak changed positions as seeds during that period of time...

    If you flip a coin but change what's on the sides of the coins, you probably won't get 50-50 either...
     
    #7
  8. dangalak

    dangalak Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2012
    Messages:
    608
    ...............................

    It doesn't make a difference. 1 is the same as 2 and 3 is the same as 4.

    There was even a study saying that it isn't random anymore.

    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=394943

    EDIT: I get what you mean, but it is HIGHLY unlikely that Federer and Djokovic get the same half as well. I mean, there IS a 50% probablility of them being in the same half. Until AO they were like 13 out of 15 for God's sake.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2012
    #8
  9. Pouet156

    Pouet156 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    163
    If they were rigged to have a Nadal / Fed match, they would have been seeded in the same half when it was possible, as Federer often failed to reach the final.

    What is important is the seed number, and it is almost evenly distributed...
    One could compute the probability than the ranking change influence the ratio for Novak/Fed in the same half. I'm too lazy to do it but I bet it is higher than winning the lottery... and yet, people win the lottery...

    Furthermore, when looking only at the Grand Slams, you only look at a subset of all the tourneys they are seeded in together...
     
    #9
  10. dangalak

    dangalak Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2012
    Messages:
    608
    ....................

    Good God, that is some of the worst logic that I've ever seen.
     
    #10
  11. tacou

    tacou Legend

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2007
    Messages:
    7,045
    this has been gone over so many times and TT posters continue to misunderstand logic, probability, etc.

    Murray just lost to Raonic, Berdych beat Fed at USO.

    The 4 tourneys OP listed show a 50/50 split of Murray's placement
     
    #11
  12. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    3,897
    You forgot what happen when Djokovic was #1?
     
    #12
  13. jokinla

    jokinla Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,705
    They should place at least the top 4 if not all the seeds, since they have earned the ranking, they earn the easier path, but for whatever reason they make it random, which as we see doesn't end up seeming so random.
     
    #13
  14. BauerAlmeida

    BauerAlmeida Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2012
    Messages:
    566
    Location:
    Argentina
    Draws are rigged. The proof is the Federer-Djokovic SF in GS. Obviously it isn't happening now because they are 1 and 2.

    For me it should always be 1vs4 and 2vs3 in the Semis.
     
    #14
  15. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,580
    #15
  16. jokinla

    jokinla Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,705
    You know this place is one big circle.
     
    #16
  17. Spider

    Spider Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2007
    Messages:
    2,247
    Location:
    UK
    Not really. If you are the "world's number one player", at least on computer, you should be able to beat the players in front of you.

    Andy just happens to be hitting his prime so, to win a tournament, someone will have to beat him - be it semi, finals, etc.
     
    #17
  18. Pouet156

    Pouet156 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    163
    Yes, that would be good, and then we won't have threads about rigged draws...
     
    #18
  19. mellowyellow

    mellowyellow Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2010
    Messages:
    2,553
    To all naysayers, one only research the 1996 USO draw and realize this is not even up for debate.
     
    #19
  20. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    One more to the collection.
     
    #20
  21. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

    Joined:
    May 17, 2011
    Messages:
    9,496
    Lol gone is the fed/Novak conspiracy and to replace it is the fed/Murray one.
     
    #21
  22. sdont

    sdont Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    6,986
    Location:
    Paris, France
    lol, nice pic.
     
    #22
  23. sdont

    sdont Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    6,986
    Location:
    Paris, France
    Please, stop it.
     
    #23
  24. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Messages:
    10,918
    Location:
    NL, Canada
    It's happened again. 1 vs 3. How people don't think these draws are rigged is beyond me.
     
    #24
  25. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    Fantastic.

    So Federer drawn with Murray in the same half in both the US and AO. I'm absolutely disgusted.
     
    #25
  26. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    3,897
    What is wrong? Draw favor the top ranked player
     
    #26
  27. monfed

    monfed Guest

    Yea,it's too tempting to call it a conspiracy.
     
    #27
  28. monfed

    monfed Guest

    So why didn't it favour Federer who was #1 in USO then?
     
    #28
  29. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    3,897
    Strange things are happening
     
    #29
  30. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    Really. It doesn't favor Federer now when he's no 2, didn't favor him when he was first. Conclusion: the draw doesn't favor Federer no matter what the ranking.
     
    #30
  31. SQA333

    SQA333 Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2012
    Messages:
    1,447
    Maybe this is payback for always getting Davydenko or equivalent as his QF opponent all those years back. :lol:
     
    #31
  32. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Messages:
    10,918
    Location:
    NL, Canada
    Davydenko back in the day was better than the equivalents today. Read Tsonga, Berdych, or Delpo
     
    #32
  33. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
    Canada - no-one played except Djokovic
    Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
    the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
    Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer

    Paris - no-one played so doesn't matter
    WTF - Murray drawn with Djokovic but it doesn't matter since Federer would have to play both anyway (and he did)
    AO - Murray drawn with Federer again
     
    #33
  34. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,972
    Location:
    New York
    That's what the Fed fans always said when people complained about draws in the past: "the #1 should get the best draw, it's the reward for being #1". It seems they've changed their mind all of a sudden :)
     
    #34
  35. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    3,897
    Really? :)
     
    #35
  36. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2012
    Messages:
    3,897
    LOL exactly!
     
    #36
  37. SQA333

    SQA333 Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2012
    Messages:
    1,447
    If you remember Federer had a brutal draw in Paris. Something like Simon in R2, Berdych in QF and Murray in SF. (Granted, had he stayed on, it would've been Janowicz in the semis)
     
    #37
  38. Zildite

    Zildite Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    1,903
    So it's 50/50 now? Obviously rigged.
     
    #38
  39. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2011
    Messages:
    16,888
    Location:
    Poland, eating bigos and żeberka
    Except that when the draw DID matter (both majors) Federer was drawn with Murray.

    Btw if all 3 played - Federer would be drawn with Murray in Canada.
    If all 3 played - Federer would be drawn with Murray again in Paris. And Berdych in the quarters.

    WTF - once again it doesn't matter as Federer still had to play Murray and Djokovic, later on though.

    So out of 8 tournaments Federer was drawn (or would be drawn) with Murray in 5. Another one was the WTF where it didn't matter. The only tournaments where Fed got it easier was the Olympics (he still had to run into a red hot Del Potro...sigh...) and Cincinnati (the only time when he really got it easier).

    Yea, luck favors him for sure.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2013
    #39
  40. OverratedIvanovic

    OverratedIvanovic Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2012
    Messages:
    511
    Location:
    Delhi
    delete
    10 chars
     
    #40
  41. Towser83

    Towser83 Legend

    Joined:
    May 17, 2011
    Messages:
    9,496
    Fed/Murray conspiracy could gain some credibility soon... :lol:
     
    #41
  42. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2012
    Messages:
    2,786
    Try and use your head. If the draw should favor the top seed, make it 1vs4 & 2vs3 at all times. If that's not how it should work and the matches are always drawn, there should be randomness, where the tougher player doesn't always end up on Federer's side of the draw in Grand Slams.

    Anyway, I'm not complaining. I don't think it's "rigged". I just think Federer has been unlucky more often than not. It's all fair.
     
    #42
  43. sbengte

    sbengte Legend

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2010
    Messages:
    8,700
    If you are referring to AO '10 where Fed drew Davy in the QF, remember that Davy was the red hot player coming from several big victories including the WTF (where he beat Fed, Nadal and Delpo ). Some people had even picked Davy to win the AO that year !
     
    #43
  44. TTMR

    TTMR Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2009
    Messages:
    1,943
    Wow, Federer gets the harder semi GS matchup a whole two consecutive times. How could anyone not infer conspiracy?

    Which top player had the easiest draw (going into the tournament) at Wimbledon? Oh, right, our arbitrarily convenient starting line starts after Wimbledon, the last Grand Slam Federer won.


    Five out of eight, just wow. No further evidence needed.


    (Surely Federer fans have better options to fall back on: he's 'old', the courts are too slow, family is taking up his time, he's no longer motivated)
     
    #44
  45. Big_Dangerous

    Big_Dangerous Legend

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2010
    Messages:
    6,026
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    He won the first set in that match and then Fed took that "bathroom break." After that, it was all Fed in that match.

    "OMG!! Fed took a bathroom break after losing the first set, it must be a conspiracy!!"
     
    #45
  46. BrooklynNY

    BrooklynNY Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    1,627
    ???????????
     
    #46
  47. TMF

    TMF Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2009
    Messages:
    21,239
    Davy owns Nadal on hard court. Anyone who's lucky it's Nadal who never met Davy at the USO and AO.
     
    #47
  48. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,052
    Location:
    Weak era
    It's an conspiracy.

    I think Fed's draws are gonna get tougher and tougher as Tio Toni's influence grows, from now on expect to see Murray in his half in every slam and Berdych in his QF in every 2nd slam (as to not make it too obvious).

    Toni can't afford to allow Fed to win another slam, Rafa will have a hard time breaking the slam record as it is.
     
    #48
  49. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,052
    Location:
    Weak era
    Damn straight, Kolja is Nadal's master on HC, 6-1 overall and 3-0 in finals.
     
    #49
  50. Sid_Vicious

    Sid_Vicious G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2010
    Messages:
    11,681
    Location:
    In The City
    How can you be considered one of the greatest if you have been thoroughly destroyed by non-grandslam winning player and possible matchfixer on HCs?
     
    #50

Share This Page