Slam prediction for 2013...your pick?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Djokodal Fan, Nov 14, 2012.

  1. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Am I bent out of shape? I thought I was just addressing the ridicilous assertion that Murray had only played well in 2012 at the USO.


    Is this thread about the relative slam records and overall standing in the game of the top 4 or is this thread about who will win what in 2013? I thought it was about the latter - but you seem to be arguing about the former. Murray's overall place in the pantheon of tennis greats has the square root of feck all to do with his chances of winning a slam next year. By that logic, Murray has less chance of winning a slam next year than Agassi and Sampras.

    PS I think Roger is the greatest player ever, but the fact is that over the last 2 years he has had an inferior slam record to Murray - that for me is a more pertinent fact about the relative liklyhood of either of them winning a slam in 2013 than Roger's 17 slams.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
    #51
  2. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    Yes and no. True that his place in the pantheon of tennis greats may have nothing to do with whether or not he wins a slam in 2013, but at the same time, you have to understand the hesitation on the part of some fans to predict his future slam chances because of his record with other greats in the past. The bottom line is Murray has to prove he is capable of being a multiple slam winning champion and until he does people will be skeptical and rightly so. Personally, I think he will win more slams in the future and defeat the other top three or four.
     
    #52
  3. Rock Strongo

    Rock Strongo Legend

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    Professional golf...

    His game doesn't look like it would belong to a professional golfer. He'd get eaten alive on the PGA tour or even the European tour.

    Teaching pro, yes. Touring pro, no.
     
    #53
  4. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Why does he have to win multiple slams before people can reasonably state he has a chance to win another? Forgive me, but I'm just not seeing the link, and moreover, plenty of people seem to agree with me as many are tipping him to win a slam next year. For clarity, I'm not saying I'm one of those people - my gripe was with Bobby Junior's claim that Murray only really performed at the USO in 2012 - my personal opinion is that Murray may well struggle to win a slam next year - but not because Roger has won 17 and Rafa has won 11.

    Do Murray's career achievements pale in comparison to the other members of the top 4? Absolutley. Does this have any bearing on Murray's chances of winning a slam in 2013? Absolutely not. Roger's 17 slam wins don't change the fact that he has only made 1 slam final in the last 2 years - so why would he be favoured ahead of Murray whose record over that period is better? If you check the bookies you'll see that Roger is behind Murray in the betting for al four slams next year - yes, even RG.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
    #54
  5. DropShotArtist

    DropShotArtist Banned

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    AO Fed
    FO Djokovic
    W Fed
    USO Delpo
     
    #55
  6. Dark Magician

    Dark Magician Professional

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    Howcome??
    Wins FO=Loses AO in final.
    Reaches wimby Final (better than 2012)
    Reaches US final atleast as this year.
    Cant see him losing any points??
     
    #56
  7. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

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    Murray played just as well at the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year. His highest level this year was at the Australian Open Semifinal. Wimbledon final and Olympics final were equal at 2nd....he brought out his serve and forehand real well in that match.

    His US Open was the worst of the year....yet he won. He addresses this in his final press conference....that he won not being in great form like he was at his other slam finals. I guess losing playing real well like 10 Aussie and 12 Wimby....you eventually win a slam playing poor.

    US Open tournament was poor for his standards....still he pulled it out.

    I believe Murray will win a slam next year.....most likely Wimbledon with the form he showed this year on the grass.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
    #57
  8. BHiC

    BHiC Rookie

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    AO - Djokovic. He will beat Murray in the finals in 4 sets.
    FO - Nadal. If he plays it, you just can't bet against him on clay.
    W - Murray. He finally overcomes his nerves, and rides his OG to a Wimbledon title.
    USO - Federer. An incompetent crew that resurfaces Arthur Ashe stadium forgets to add sand to the mixture, and accidentally creates the fastest court ever played on at the US Open.
     
    #58
  9. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    I dont agree with those, way too generous to Murray especialy. Mine would be:



    Australian Open:

    1. Djokovic

    -----huge gap-----


    2. Murray
    3. Nadal
    4. Federer



    French Open:

    1. Nadal
    2. Djokovic

    -----huge gap------


    3. Federer
    4. Ferrer
    5. Del Potro
    6. Murray or Berdych



    Wimbledon:

    1. Federer and Nadal (tied)
    3. Murray
    4. Djokovic
    5. Berdych
    6. Tsonga



    U.S Open:

    1. Djokovic
    2. Murray
    3. Nadal
    4. Federer
    5. Del Potro
    6. Berdych



    It wouldnt shock me if Murray had an even bigger breakthrough year and won 2 or 3 majors, but he isnt the odds on favorite to win any of them at this point. Definitely not Wimbledon where he has never beaten Nadal or Federer. The Wimbledon bookies having Djokovic and Murray as both having better odds to win Wimbledon than Federer and Nadal are smoking some funny stuff.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 15, 2012
    #59
  10. Russeljones

    Russeljones G.O.A.T.

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    He probably meant Murray's dismal performance at Masters, Queens et. Doubt anyone can seriously put forward the notion that 2012 isn't Murray's best year (by far).
     
    #60
  11. BauerAlmeida

    BauerAlmeida Semi-Pro

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    AO: Djokovic
    RG: Djokovic
    Wimby: Murray
    USO: Del Potro
     
    #61
  12. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    I agree with you that Murray performed well this year in slams and not just at the USO. His match against Djokovic at the AO could have gone either way and he obviously performed very well at Wimbledon, not to mention the Olympics!


    I agree that his past achievements do not predict how he will do in 2013 but many do not see it that way. Many see his performances against the top four in past slams and predict he will continue those choking ways. As I said, I think he will win a slam in 2013 with Roger getting older as we speak and Nadal not winning a slam off clay since 2010. Murray certainly has the best shot now than he ever has had. I would be quite surprised if Murray did not win a slam in 2013. Hopefully he won't become a one slam wonder.
     
    #62
  13. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

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    What I want to happen: (don't shoot me, I'm just a fan) :)

    AO 2013 Rafa defeats Djoker
    FO 2013 Rafa defeats Djoker
    W 2013 Rafa defeats Federer
    USO 2013 Rafa defeats Murray

    What probably will happen :

    Djoker d Murray
    Rafa d Fed
    Fed d Djoker
    Djoker d Murray
     
    #63
  14. MindoverMatter

    MindoverMatter Professional

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    I think people are forgetting that Murray's best slam is the Australian Open, not the US Open or Wimbledon. While he does get a bump for being the hometown favorite, I don't think it will be his next slam.

    Then again, there's always the example of Roddick - the US Open wasn't his best slam, but it was the only one that he won. There's Federer to blame for that but, well, speculation is useless because who knows what this past decade would have looked like without Federer.

    Anyway, my predictions are:

    AO: Murray defeats Djokovic
    FO: Nadal (If he plays) defeats Djokovic. If Nadal doesn't play, then Djokovic defeats Ferrer
    W: Djokovic defeats Nadal if he plays, and if not then Djokovic defeats Tsonga
    USO: Djokovic defeats Federer
     
    #64
  15. Ms Nadal

    Ms Nadal Semi-Pro

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    #65
  16. Gonzo_style

    Gonzo_style Hall of Fame

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    AO: Djokovic
    RG: Djokovic
    W: Murray
    USO: Del Potro
     
    #66
  17. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Well, I'm not really going by logic. I'm just going by what I feel is the reasonable trajectory of the players' careers and a bit of gut-feeling.
     
    #67
  18. papertank

    papertank Hall of Fame

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    AO: Nadal d. Murray
    French: Djokovic d. Nadal
    Wimbledon: Murray d. Djokovic
    US: Djokovic d. Delpo
     
    #68
  19. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    Murray suffered more brain-fart-esque losses than the rest of the top 4 this year. Despite having the best year of his career it doesn't mean he was the best.

    He was pwnd in the Wimbledon final despite a good start and eventually folded - go watch it... once Federer was back even it was almost one-way traffic from there on in. That, by top standards, is not a great performance in a major final. At the Olympics he played fantastically - but was also the beneficiary of Federer playing much worse than he had as Wimbledon (and of Nadal being absent).

    So far as the AO goes, Djokovic is playing well and he's better on that surface hands-down than Murray. Nadal is a question-mark. I wouldn't be surprised if he came back playing pretty good tennis OR, equally, if it took him 6 months to get back up to speed. Either way I'd put money on Federer winning the AO before Murray. Fresher legs, better recent form, more experience, more random God form factor potential if he gets his stars lined up right.

    So far as Murray having a good year - of course he did - but his path to the Olympics and the US Open titles were made easier by Nadal not being there (as it would have been for anyone else too technically). The fact he was the first person to win a major without having to defeat either Federer or Nadal for something like 7 years says a lot. Put both of them back in the draw at semis time and see how well Murray can handle a couple of top players in a row. He's never done it once in his entire career to date at a major. He's always flunked the next match when he's gotten past one of the big guns at a major. He's still not at the level of the other three, even if his short-term form has stepped up a notch big time.

    Lastly, being the defending champion has no impact on a player's chances of winning a major. Being a great player does. Murray has no more chance at next year's US Open as of now than Djokovic or Federer. Time will tell how soon Nadal can get back into top gear, if at all.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
    #69
  20. JTJet

    JTJet Rookie

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    Austrailian Open : Djokovic
    French Open : Nadal
    Wimbledon : Murray
    US Open : Murray
     
    #70
  21. OddJack

    OddJack Legend

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    AO Murray

    FO Djoker

    W Murray

    US Federer
     
    #71
  22. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    Well, it mainly says that Federer wasn't good enough to meet him in the semi-finals whilst Nadal was off sick!

    True, but then only 2 other players have ever done that so far and then only the once ie. Del Potro (2009 USO) and Djokovic (2011 USO).

    Not so. After beating Nadal in the quarters of 2010 AO, he went on to win the semi-final.

    Agreed. Until he wins more Slams, he is not yet quite at their level.

    I think it increases their odds of winning another one slightly more than if they had never won one.

    Well, of course. All 3 are now past US Open champions and all 3 have an equal chance of winning another one.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
    #72
  23. smiley_face

    smiley_face Rookie

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    2013:

    AO: Djokovic (def Murray)
    FO: Djokovic (def Federer)
    Wb:Tsonga (def Murray)
    US: Djokovic (def Berdych)
     
    #73
  24. smiley_face

    smiley_face Rookie

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    Thats about Grand Slam. Master 1000 is the 2nd most important event and here is my prediction:

    Indian Wells: Federer
    Miami: Djokovic
    Mt. Carlo: Ferrer
    Rome: Djokovic
    Madrid: Federer (only when the blue-clay is kept)
    Toronto: Djokovic
    Cincinnati: Murray
    Shanghai: Raonic
    Paris: Gasquet

    WTF: Federer
     
    #74
  25. smiley_face

    smiley_face Rookie

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    I'm sorry but I think Nadal should move to golf. Coming back after so many serious injuries/surgeries could make thw wheelchair become his best friend in the next 10 years.
     
    #75
  26. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    That's a slightly convenient example to use. He beat Nadal who pulled out and was playing like a tool for long streches in that match, and then had to play Cilic who I'm surprised was even able to win the first set before Murray rolled him pretty comfortably losing only 10 games in the last three sets. He was then all but impotent in the final until he was 2 sets down.

    This comes back to stuff people often mention about betting odds on majors. This year the odds-on bets for each major, in the lead up to the event, would have been wrong 2 of 4 times (correct on Aussie and French Open). The odds at the beginning of the season on each major were wrong for 3 of the 4 majors.

    So, as you say, a couple of great matches doesn't relate all that well historically into long-term class in tennis. Murray has, time and time again, fallen in relatively meek fashion at the business end of majors and, notably, after he's had a good win.

    He really is a top player but seems to rely on at least one or two of the others around him having a clanger or being injured to really increase his chances. The same can't be said for the other three - all of whom have won majors when everyone else was present, healthy and seemed to be playing well.

    That's how majors often have been won throughout history though. It's not a slur on Murray to say he relies more on a bit of good fortune to win a major than the other three big guns on tour - it's just how it is. I don't see much in his long term form this year which says otherwise. In short term form he's definitely picked it up a notch - Lendl in effect! - and it's about time too.
     
    #76
  27. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    What will most likely happen:
    AO-Djokovic
    FO-nadal or Djokovic (depends on nadals health)
    W-Fed or Murray (depending on the draw for fed)
    USO-Djokovic or Murray

    What I want:
    AO- Fed (so he can get the all time titles there)
    FO- Djokovic(so he can get the career slam)
    W- Fed (so he can be the KING of wimby with 8 titles) or Murray (he can win his home turf slam)
    USO - Fed (cause he can get the most titles)
     
    #77
  28. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

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    Theyre getting rid of blue clay but honestly If any Djokovic or Federer play MC and nadal isnt playing, Ferrer wont win. And Gasquet isnt winning Paris LOL plenty of guys who can beat him
     
    #78
  29. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    It's a perfectly valid example to use. Nadal didn't pull out of that match until he was 2 and a half sets down. He himself said that his injury didn't kick in until the start of the 3rd set when he was already being well and truly beaten. It only becomes an inconvenient example to you because it contradicts your statement that Murray always loses at Slams after beating a top player.

    As I said, is it Murray's fault that Federer wasn't good enough to meet him in the semis at the 2012 USO or that Nadal failed to show up? Is he supposed to hand back his trophy and tell the organisers to negate the result on that account? He played against the best players who were good enough to make it through the draw, beat them and beat the world #2 and defending champion in the final. That's all that can be expected of any player in any tournament anywhere, Slam or otherwise!

    Well, he's only won one Major so far, so he's hardly established a pattern has he? Odds are that if he wins anymore, it will be without the presence of at least one or more of the top players with Federer growing ever older and Nadal not yet confirmed to return to the tour anytime soon. That won't be his fault either, is not in any way a slur as you point out and IMO therefore not really worth mentioning.
     
    #79
  30. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    This is sad, but I agree. Murray won't be making it past the semifinals of the next US Open. He could win Wimbledon, though.
     
    #80
  31. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    No way is Tsonga beating Murray in the final of Wimbledon.
     
    #81
  32. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    Nonsense. It was not a normal match situation at all.

    That said, even if you could include the example, he did lose - to Federer - after beating Nadal. He also lost, as I've said he is prone to doing, in lame lame lame fashion.

    Not at all. It's no-one's fault. But it serves to demonstrate that his win was more likely an anomaly for the year rather than an indication he has suddenly improved his game relative to the other top guys. He just found himself in a fortunate situation where Nadal was out and Federer had a clanger vs Berdych so his path to the final was smoothed.
     
    #82
  33. EastAngels2014

    EastAngels2014 Rookie

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    AO: Djoker or Murray, maybe Delpo sneaks in
    RG: Nadal or Djoker
    Wim: Roger or Murray
    US: Murray or Djoker, maybe Berdych sneaks in
     
    #83
  34. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

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    It's perfectly normal to me and I suspect to most other people as well.

    He lost to Federer in the final after beating Cilic in the semi-final and it was actually his best performance against Federer in a GS final until this year's Wimbledon. He had several set points in the 3rd set and lost a hard-fought tie-break that went to 13-11 and could have gone either way.

    We don't know how Murray would have fared against Federer in the semis. Given how lame Federer was against Berdych, its perfectly possible Murray would have beaten him had he played him. I repeat that to beat two of the top players back to back in a Slam is a rare feat for ANY player, not just Murray. Only Del Potro and Djokovic have ever managed it and Djokovic only managed it barely after surviving match points against Federer in their 2011 USO semi so it seems Murray may not be the only player to benefit from a bit of luck when playing against other top players in a Slam!

    But if it makes you happy to dismiss Murray's USO win as a lucky fluke because he never got to play Federer before playing Djokovic, then by all means do so. There seems to be a lot of people on here who think Murray only ever wins anything because of sheer good luck. In the end, you believe what you want to believe!
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2012
    #84
  35. Seventeen

    Seventeen Rookie

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    AO: Djokovic
    FO: Djokovic
    WB: Federer
    USO: Djokovic
     
    #85
  36. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    Of course we don't know - so don't use ludicrous logic like: because Federer played poorly against Berdych, Murray would have had a good shot at him if they'd faced each other. Ergo: If Federer had played better and beaten Berdych, he would have likely been playing better than that match - so it's spurious to even use it as an indication of form going into a hypothetical match-up which never happened.

    Unless he backs it up it will go down in history as a fluke almost surely according to Talk Tennis logic.
     
    #86
  37. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    How do you fluke 7 5-set matches against the best players in the world? Just how do you do it?
     
    #87
  38. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    USO is Murray's best slam: 1W, 1F, 1S, 2 R16 are better than 2F, 1S, 2 R16. Only marginally better but still he has a better chance of beating Djoko at USO than at AO. I agree that Wimbledon is his 3rd best slam. But winning the Olympics (beating Fed in the process in a best of 5 for the first time) should give him tons of confidence for grass season next year. And let's not forget he's already won Queen's twice.
     
    #88
  39. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    Murray at this year's Olympic final was better than Murray at his best on any other surface. I really think Grass could prove to be his best surface over time. He totally dismantled Federer in that match, the only time Federer looked helpless on one of his best surfaces.
     
    #89
  40. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    After Federer was worn out after a close encounter with Del Potro.
     
    #90
  41. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

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    That's not a good enough excuse. Even if Federer played as well as he did in the Wimbledon final, he'd have probably still lost in 4 sets.
     
    #91
  42. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    AO: Djokovic (though I'd love Federer d. Murray)
    RG: Nadal
    Wimbledon: Murray or Federer
    US Open: Murray or Djokovic
     
    #92
  43. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Last edited: Nov 16, 2012
    #93
  44. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    This again?

    Roger played for 4 and a bit hours on the Friday afternoon - then had Saturday off, then played Murray on the Sunday afternoon. I'm sure Roger has been involved in a 5 setter in a slam, had the next day off, then won the the next day without being 'worn out' - all of which is analogous to what happened to him at Wimbledon OG.

    While 'worn out Roger' was resting after his marathon with Delpo, what was Murray doing? Well, on the Friday, while roger was getting his massage, Murray played Novak Djokovic. Then on the Saturday, while Roger had his feet up in front of the fire, Murray played 2 mixed doubles matches - the Quarter-Final and the Semi-Final, then he played Roger on the Sunday afternoon.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2012
    #94
  45. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Just realised I haven't actually said my picks!

    What I want to happen:

    Murray to win a slam in 2013

    What I think will happen:

    AO Noel
    RG Rafa
    SW19 Rafa
    USO Noel
     
    #95
  46. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    I'm sure the Delpo match impacted Roger, both physically and mentally. However, you should not even respond to stuff like this. Murray played superb and Roger played poorly. Both deserved what they got that day. In fact, the fact that Rog had to go 4 hours against Delpo showed that he was not in form to beat Murray at the Olympics. If he was, he would have beaten Delpo a lot easier. He should have not lost serve in the first set, he should have returned better and he should've served it out the first time instead of being broken to love. It's his own fault and it showed that he lacked the form to beat Murray. Full kudos for Murray therefore, for being the best grass player during the olympics.

    I would not derive from this, however, that Federer is done beating Murray on grass. I think it's a 55-45 for Murray maybe at this point. But the quicker the grass, the more advantage Federer. As long as Federer can keep his slice backhand low, he still stands a good chance against anyone on any surface.
     
    #96
  47. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Don't be so pessimistic. There's no reason why the new Murray could not hang with Rafa at Wimbledon, or with Djokovic at the US Open. If anything, a optimistic Murrayfan should believe in Murray winning 2 Slams next year.
     
    #97
  48. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    Thanks Joeri - I accept I'm erring on the side of pessimism, but I'm trying to be realistic. Noel looks like he's at least half a notch above everyone else. Rafa usually does well after a long layoff - he'll be favourite for RG and if he wins that, then he'll take a bundle of momentum into SW19 - which I think is Noel's worst surface. I'm not saying Roger or Murray couldn't compete with Rafa @ Wimbledon - of couse they could, especially Roger - but if the Spaniard wins RG I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with @ SW19. In addtion to this, there's the 'after 1st slam effect' to consider - it doesn't always happen, but it can take time for a 1st time slam winner to bag that second one - and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that happened to Murray.
     
    #98
  49. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,598
    Only stupid people would form this conclusion. Roger will be a force on grass for some time to come.
     
    #99
  50. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
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    13,120
    I think Murray's got the advantage that the after effects of his first Slam victory take place now. Struggling through Shanghai, Tokyo, WTF.. He knows he has to keep working hard and I think he's got every time of the world now to improve further. His game has more fixable weaknesses than Novak's as we saw this year already. Imo, he fixed his predictability (always cross court) and passiveness on the forehand side a lot, and stopped to well and truly 'push' against lower ranked opponents (for an example, see his Wimbledon match with Gulbis a couple of years ago, which he won comfortably, but basically by keeping the ball in play with slice backhands). However, I think Murray still has weaknesses, which Lendl will see and help him improve on.

    - Not willing enough to run around the Backhand to attack a neutral rally shot with an inside out forehand.
    - Not willing enough to come to the net, one of his main strengths when he actually does come in imo. Even a S&V on his first serve every now and then would not hurt his game at all.
    - Lack of ability to turn it around when his first serve % is down.
    - An improving, yet still attackable second serve

    I think these are more obvious AND fixable flaws, than Nadal's knees, Djokovic's lack of free points on first serve, or Federer's declining movement. I would be surprised if Murray doesn't win a Slam next year. I'd say he's not a >50% favourite anywhere, but stands a good chance at 3 out of 4.
     

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