Slam prediction for 2013...your pick?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Djokodal Fan, Nov 14, 2012.

  1. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    7,426
    I make no bones anywhere that Federer didn't have a lot of soft draws at majors in terms of the rankings of players he had to face on the journey... I have no problem with that at all.

    What I have an issue with is people inferring long term class from a body of evidence which is based on short term form. That is what Murray has shown - short term form. He was, without any doubt, been the biggest a beneficiary of the draws being made easier by Nadal's absence and of his other peers not quite firing in all cylinders. But that's how majors have been won since forever by many players - it's nothing new.

    The tell-tale sign of greatness - long term class - is the ability to maintain some continuity in form. Murry is the sole player in the top four who has not ever been able to maintain any true top form for more than a few weeks at a time. His peak ability is no doubt as good as it's ever been and as good as anyone on the right day - he has just relied on others slipping up much more than the other three have to earn his biggest achievements.

    No matter how you try to bake it as some straw-clutching argument it is what it is regardless.
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2012
  2. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579
    So do I - who has made this inference?

    You do like your strawmen don't you Bobby; you're 2 for 2 so far - tell me, when did you start making arguments about points that people haven't made in order to defelect from your previous assertions?

    Do you withdraw your assertion that Murray only played well at the USO in 2012? That's all I'm arguing with you about - not whether Murray will win another slam, not whether or not he has 'long term class' (whatever that means) - but whether or not the USO was the only place where Murray played well.

    It's a yes or no Bobby - no whataboutery, no strawmen about Murray not being this or that, a simple yes or no. Do you stand by your silly assertion that murray only played well in 2012 at the USO?
     
  3. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    7,426
    Perhaps it's an American thing but I don't think you have grasped what a strawman argument is. I haven't used one. I put forward my position pretty clearly and framed it in terms I outlined - not warping someone else's argument into something it wasn't and then attempting to debate it.

    I never said he only played well there. He also played well at the Olympics.

    See, now you're getting the hang of what a strawman argument is. You've just achieved one in assuming spuriously that (the above about Murray and the USO) that is what I mean when it is not.

    It's not a yes or no Batz - you misread what I said and have started a chain of discussion based on your own mistaken or deliberately wrong interpretation - which typifies strawman logic. It's a bit of a facepalm really.
     
  4. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,029
    Location:
    Weak era

    He hardly played well at just USO and Olympics.

    He also displayed high level of play at AO, his match in SF with an eventual champion Novak really came down to a few points (can't imagine a match begin much closer than that), I'd say his level of play there was definitely comparable to USO but you win some you lose some (and in general in Novak-Murray match-up faster surface usually favours Murray while slower favours Novak).

    Regarding Wimbledon, if you compare that slam final to his previous ones it was clearly a step forward, it was that performance that made many of us (including me) predict he will definitely win a slam soon (though admittedly I thought his first slam will come in 2013 AO) because while he wasn't good enough on the day (and remember his opponent was Federer) he obviously got over his mental hurdle in slam finals, he got outplayed but fought till the end and didn't hand the match to his opponent ( do you remember his 2008 USO and 2011 AO finals for example? the difference was like night and day).

    At FO he beat whom he was supposed to beat and lost to Ferrer which is someone you expect to beat Murray on clay.

    So overall, I'd say Murray's level of play this year was excellent in slams for the most part and he played IMO the best tennis of his life at the Olympics, sure his performance was poor in masters (for his standards) but I sincerely doubt he's losing any sleep over it.
     
  5. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    7,426
    I didn't say he played well only at the US and the Olympics... I said it to demonstrate - despite what Batz had inferred - that I didn't think he played well anywhere other than the USO.
     
  6. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579
    You said:

    Murray had a dream run in winning the USO but otherwise played unspectacular tennis for most of the year - even if it was his best

    Are you seriously suggesting that the statement above can be interpreted as meaning that 'Murray played well at the USO and many other tournaments'? Really?
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2012
  7. Steve0904

    Steve0904 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2012
    Messages:
    10,916
    Location:
    NL, Canada
    AO: Djokovic
    RG: Nadal (I'd like to pick Novak, but I can't pick against Rafa here)
    W: Murray
    USO: Federer (He can do it if he can plan his schedule right IMO)

    I'd like to pick somebody outside the big 4, but I don't quite have the faith to do that yet.
     
  8. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2008
    Messages:
    13,120
    If we could take away one player out of the equation at each slam, say Djokovic at the AO, Nadal at the FO, Fed at W and Murray at USO.. I still have very little faith that a person would break through to win a slam.
     
  9. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579
    That's a good point mate. Has there ever been a more difficult time to break through as a 1st time slam winner than now? I don't think there has.
     
  10. SQA333

    SQA333 Professional

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2012
    Messages:
    1,446
    Australian Open: Djokovic
    Roland Garros: Nadal
    These two are the eternal constants in tennis. ;)
    Wimbledon & US Open: no-one knows
     
  11. Tafmatch

    Tafmatch Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2012
    Messages:
    295
    Problem is the best 4 players are the top 4 contenders in EVERY slam. They can be marginally weaker at one slam but still be the favorite over the rest of the field. That has never happened before.
     
  12. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    13,316
    Location:
    Manchester, UK.
    Exactly. We just don't know what would have happened if Federer and Murray had met in the semi-finals, do we? So if my logic is spurious in supposing he might have beaten him, your's is equally so for suggesting that he would have lost! I choose to believe he would have had a good chance to win, you choose to believe he would have been beaten. Neither of us have any solid evidence to back up our assertions because it's all hypothetical, isn't it?


    Backs it up with another Slam win you mean? But what if Federer and/or Nadal are missing from the next one or either of them gets knocked out before they reach Murray which, as I say, is an increasingly likely scenario given Federer's age and Nadal's uncertain fitness. Does that mean that any future Slam Murray may win will have to be considered a fluke because he didn't get to beat Federer and Nadal back to back? If so, will that same flukiness have to be applied to anybody else who wins a Slam without beating those two back to back?

    I wonder when the fluke nature of such Slam wins will be considered at an end? When Federer and Nadal retire?
     
  13. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    13,316
    Location:
    Manchester, UK.
    I agree. Since the rise to ascendancy of Federer and Nadal in 2005 and Djokovic in 2008, I doubt there has ever been as tough a time as now for a first-time Slam winner to break through. Del Potro is the only guy who managed to do it on his 1st attempt. It took Murray 5!

    Incredibly, neither Federer, Nadal nor Djokovic had to beat one of the top 4 players in the world to win their first Slam final. In fact, in each case, they all faced an unseeded opponent! Almost impossible to imagine that happening today or at any time in the near future!
     
  14. underground

    underground Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2012
    Messages:
    6,923
    For some reason I think 2013 will be a crazy year, end of 2012 somewhat makes me feel it's the proper start of the change of era. The tour is coming to another 2001-2002 again.

    Predictions:

    AO: Djokovic def. Federer
    FO: Djokovic def. Ferrer
    Wimbledon: Tsonga def. Berdych
    USO: Federer def. Murray
    WTF: Delpo def. Nadal

    Crazy I know but that's the whole point of predictions. :-|
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2012
  15. tistrapukcipeht

    tistrapukcipeht Professional

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,324
    Bobby Jr is almost 100% right about everything, I only disagree about the AO semis against Djoker, it could have gone to Murray. Murray played really well, had(s) the game, but mentally He is nowhere near top 3. Murray also played very well at the Olympics, but Fed did not come near his B game, again, not Murray's fault.

    Murray did have a dream run with winds definitely helping him, not his fault though, had the conditions being normal weven with the absence on Nadal and Fed out, I still thought at the time Berdych would have beaten him and lost on the final to Djoker.

    Anyway, my predictions (guesses) are:

    AO- Djoker VS Fed in the final- Fed wins it
    FO- Djoker VS Del Potro- Del Potro wins it.
    Wimbledon- Fed Vs Djoker- Fed wins it.
    US Open- Djoker Vs Del Potro- Djoker wins it
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2012
  16. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    13,316
    Location:
    Manchester, UK.
    What is this dream run that Murray had? I hope you are not trying to suggest that Djokovic's and Federer's laughably cakewalk draws were somehow any easier? :confused:

    As for this never-ending 'wind' business, if Murray had lost to Berdych in the semi-final or to Djokovic in the final, would that mean the wind favoured them and would that mean there would be some sort of asterisk against their wins? Or does it only work that way when Murray happens to win in windy conditions?

    The final of 2009 Indian Wells was also extremely windy when Murray played Nadal. Nadal demolished Murray in 1 and 2. Does that mean that Nadal got lucky because it was windy and that it therefore clearly favoured him? How come it didn't favour Murray on that occasion? Very fickle with its favours is the wind on US hardcourts or so it seems to me.
     
  17. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    Here is an interesting question for people. IF Nadal comes back in storming fashion and repeats his 2010 feat of winning 3 slams, would it be anymore surprising than it was in 2010 when he ended the season something like 2-12 vs top 10 opponents the last 5 months of the year? Not suggesting that will neccessarily happen but an intersting thought nonetheless.
     
  18. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

    Joined:
    May 19, 2010
    Messages:
    7,780
    You mean 12-2 ?
     
  19. NadalAgassi

    NadalAgassi Guest

    He ended 2009 something like 2-12 vs top 10 opponent after his return from injury is what I meant. That is what he went into 2010 with, everyone said he was finished, and he had his most dominant year ever, topping even 2008. Not saying that will happen again but you never know with Nadal. One rule people should have learnt by now is you can never count him out, that is even more true of him than anyone, even Federer. He is he person who has been written off the most and come back and shocked people. Obviously coming back and winning on clay would shock nobody, but people are pretty much writing him off ever winning major titles on other surfaces again, and in that sense he could surprise some people.
     
  20. beast of mallorca

    beast of mallorca Legend

    Joined:
    May 19, 2010
    Messages:
    7,780
    You know why ?................because you're here in TW, a ******* haven.
    An astute tennis fan knows better.

    People on here (from ALL camps) talk like they know it all and will say that Murray can never win a Major, or Fed is too old and not gonna get the number 1 ranking back, Rafa never winning the USO etc; and will make definitive statements like the above.

    Rafa may or may not get back to where he was. So, we'll wait and see.
     
  21. jaggy

    jaggy G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2006
    Messages:
    12,716
    Location:
    Carrboro, NC
    Aus-Murray
    French-Nadal
    Wimbly-Murray
    Cincy-Young
    Flusher-Murray
     
  22. Djokodal Fan

    Djokodal Fan Professional

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Messages:
    1,284
    Created this thread after USO 2012.

    1/4 down. Three more to go

    My predictions:
    Roland Garros: Nadal (2nd choice Djoker)
    Wimbly: Murray
    USopen: Djoker
     
  23. syc23

    syc23 Professional

    Joined:
    May 20, 2011
    Messages:
    1,225
    Roland Garros: Federer
    Wimbledon: Murray
    US Open: Murray
     
  24. rainingaces

    rainingaces Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2009
    Messages:
    6,393
    Location:
    UK
    Roland Garros: Delpo
    Wimbledon: Djoker
    US Open: Federer and he retires like his pal sampras, prob mopey murray tho :(
     
  25. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,579
    Fed has more chance at SW19. He's among the favourites there IMO.
     
  26. oy vey

    oy vey Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    Messages:
    711
    RG Nadal/Nole
    WIM Federer
    USO Nole
     

Share This Page