Slam winners for 2014.

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by -RF-, Sep 22, 2013.

  1. 5555

    5555 Hall of Fame

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    What's my logic? I've stated that most reasonable time to make a prediction is after the draw but it does not mean it's unreasonable to make predictions before the draws.

    1. We are talking here about Australian Open so it makes more sense to discuss how accurate bookmakers have been in regard to Djokovic and AO. In 2012 and 2013 bookies got it right, so there is a pattern.

    2. Bookmakers are generally the most accurate forecasters when compared with statistical systems or expert predictions [reference: Boulier, B.L. and Stekler, H.O. (2003), ‘Predicting the outcomes of national football league games’, International Journal of Forecasting, 19(2), 257–270]
     
  2. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    2014

    AO Nadal
    RG Djokovic
    Wimbledon Federer(if he wins it will be his last) or Murray
    USO Djokovic
     
  3. Fiji

    Fiji Legend

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    Wow, similar predictions.
     
  4. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    That's so funny! Isner, loll!
     
  5. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    You are obsessed with the bookies. You were posting about Novak being the favorite at USOpen, and then your OP post went bust when no one thought Nadal would lose, and the bookies stopped taking the bets on Nadal to lose.

    When Nadal beat Fed at AO2009, it was mentioned in the middle of the finals that Fed was still the favorite. The only sure bet is Nadal to win the French.

    If Nadal ends the year ahead of Novak, and beats him again on HC, he'll most likely be the favorite at AO, due to his success vs Novak on HC, including the USOpen win. Of course, there are a number of variables in there.
     
  6. ctoth666

    ctoth666 Professional

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    Yeah if they were to be played RIGHT NOW. But you can't pencil Nadal in like you could pencil in Federer from 04-07. It's not a sure thing.
     
  7. RodSmooth

    RodSmooth Professional

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    Monfils if he wants to
     
  8. merwy

    merwy Legend

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    Australian Open: Djokovic
    Roland Garros: Djokovic
    Wimbledon: Nadal
    US Open: Murray

    We always have these threads at the end of the year, but nobody ever bumps them. We should bump this one after the US Open, or maybe even before that, after each grand slam. That way we can see who has guessed everything correctly (someone should've gotten it all right).
     
  9. bullfan

    bullfan Legend

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    But, we all know Monfils doesn't want to. he wants to entertain more than win.

    I am a huge fan of Monfils, but, am realistic about his desires.
     
  10. RodSmooth

    RodSmooth Professional

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    True true i have a feeling he will come around AO14
     
  11. 5555

    5555 Hall of Fame

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    Look at 2013. Out of 4 slams bookmakers got it right in 3 which is 75% success rate.

    The tournaments until the end of season are not played on Plexicushion. There is a reason why Djokovic has won AO four times and Nadal only once.
     
  12. Aus Murray
    RG del Potro
    WimFederer
    US Djokovic
     
  13. -RF-

    -RF- Hall of Fame

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    Why not bump this. Will make a change from the triangular war between Fed/Nole/Nadal fans ATM..
     
  14. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    AO - Djokovic
    FO - Djokovic (this is where Nadal runs out of luck at the French)
    Wimbledon - Federer (retires afterwards)
    US Open - Djokovic
     
  15. LazyNinja19

    LazyNinja19 Hall of Fame

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    AO - Rafa
    FO - Rafa
    Wimby - Murray/Del potro
    USO - Novak
     
  16. FreeBird

    FreeBird Legend

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    AO - Nadal..........................
    RG - Nadal...........................
    W - Nadal..........................
    USO - Nadal........................
    WTF - Nadal ....................... Just kidding.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Jeepers

    Jeepers Professional

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    AO: Nadal
    FO: Nadal
    Wim: Federer
    US: Wawrinka
     
  18. Wim

    Wim Guest

    AO: rafa
    FO: rafa
    Sw19: andy
    USO: nole

    Rafa will also win miami next year. (For sure more, but this one he really wants)
     
  19. mattavery24

    mattavery24 Rookie

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    AO: Nadal
    FO: Nadal
    WIM: Fed
    US: Novak
     
  20. -RF-

    -RF- Hall of Fame

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    I too think he will retire after (hopefully winning) Wimbledon.
     
  21. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Semi-Pro

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    Never ever will Federer win Wimbledon again. I thought this year let´s see what will happen, don´t write Federer off. But after this season I am sure there is no chance of winning another GS.
     
  22. chjtennis

    chjtennis Hall of Fame

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    My prediction

    AO: Djokovic
    FO: Nadal
    WIM: Murray
    USO: Murray

    YE no. 1: Murray
     
  23. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Semi-Pro

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    I like it how Nadal is hyped in this thread and obviously Novak likes his role as hunter too. I predict a much more competitive season 2014 than 2013 was.

    I BELIEVE Novak can break his FO curse. AO will be hard for Rafa to win.
    Wimby and US Open have more contenders who could win those.
     
  24. spinovic

    spinovic Hall of Fame

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    I predict two scenarios, hinging on Roland Garros:

    Scenario 1 - Djokovic gets over the hump and wins the French Open. In this case, I think Djoker pulls off the ultimate and wins the calendar slam.

    Australian Open - Novak Djokovic
    Roland Garros - Novak Djokovic
    Wimbledon - Novak Djokovic
    US Open - Novak Djokovic


    Scenario 2 - Djokovic can't conquer Nadal and the clay.

    Australian Open - Novak Djokovic
    Roland Garros - Rafael Nadal
    Wimbledon - Jerzy Janowicz
    US Open - Novak Djokovic
     
  25. -RF-

    -RF- Hall of Fame

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    As much as I adore and fanboy Jerzy, I can't see him winning W next year. He will in it sometime in his career though
     
  26. Solo

    Solo Banned

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    What I want:

    AO: Novak
    FO: Novak
    Wim: Murray
    USO: Novak

    What I think realistically:

    AO: Novak
    FO: Nadal
    Wim: Murray
    USO: Novak
     
  27. Nathaniel_Near

    Nathaniel_Near G.O.A.T.

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    Relax folks, ...
    Djokovic, Nadal, Nadal, Murray/del Potro.
     
  28. nethawkwenatchee

    nethawkwenatchee Professional

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    AU: Murray
    FO: Nadal
    Wim: Nole
    USO: Murray
     
  29. syc23

    syc23 Professional

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    There's more chance you having a threesome with Miley Cyrus and Eva Mendes than the above. Murray to net at least of the slams in 2014 fully fit.
     
  30. Homeboy Hotel

    Homeboy Hotel Hall of Fame

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    AO: Nadal
    FO: Nadal
    TC: Murray/Delpo
    US: Djoko
     
  31. Solo

    Solo Banned

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    Murray will likely bag the Wimby. Gotta admit, he is a very good player on grass. As long as he keeps his temper in check, he can win another one.
     
  32. NadalFan201

    NadalFan201 Rookie

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    AO:Novak
    FO:Nadal
    Wimbledon:Take your pick from Novak Murray or Rafa (too hard to call)
    USO:Novak
     
  33. -RF-

    -RF- Hall of Fame

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    With the coming of 2014 and creation of numerous 2014-related threads, I thought I would bump this.
     
  34. fatichar

    fatichar Rookie

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    Novak and Rafa will share AO+RG. Wimbledon will go to Fed/Muzz. USO to Rafa/Novak/Muzz.
     
  35. FreeBird

    FreeBird Legend

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    Hey dude, Welcome back. :D
     
  36. -RF-

    -RF- Hall of Fame

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    Cheers man, good to see you :D
     
  37. captainbryce

    captainbryce Semi-Pro

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    What I want to happen:

    AO: Nadal def. Djokovic
    RG: Djokovic def. Nadal
    W: Murray def. Federer
    USO: Federer def. Nadal


    What I think will happen:

    AO: Nadal def "Darkhorse" (Gasquet, Tsonga, Berdych, etc)
    RG: Djokovic def Nadal
    W: Federer def Djokovic
    USO: Murray def Nadal

    Rankings: #1 Nadal, #2 Djokovic, #3 Murray, #4 Berdych, #5 Federer, #6 Ferrer
     
  38. Team10

    Team10 Hall of Fame

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    I like these except, #4 Berdych?!?!?!? No love for Del Potro?
     
  39. mango72

    mango72 Banned

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    Australian Open: Nadal
    French Open: Nadal
    Wimbledon: Murray
    U.S Open: Nadal

    My secondary choices if someone other than those win

    Australian Open: Djokovic
    French Open: Del Potro (no way Djokovic is winning the French next year IMO)
    Wimbledon: Nadal
    U.S Open: Djokovic
     
  40. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Nadal might end the year at 1, but it's unlikely. Djokovic can gain points in Miami and Indian Wells. Murray has a lot to defend and might end the year as low as 5 if he doesn't pick up the pace before Wimbledon, Berdych didn't even win a title this year and is aging. Federer could end the year at 5, but he could also end the year as high as 4 or even 3 given he doesn't have much to defend after the Australian Open. Ferrer could end the year at 6, I agree.
     
  41. mango72

    mango72 Banned

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    To even contemplate Federer ending a year ranked above Nadal at this stage is lunacy. Dont forget the year end rankings will always be the points for the year, and unless Nadal has a huge injury and has to miss almost the whole year Federer will never gain more points than Nadal in a 12 year period again, or even come within thousands of points of it.
     
  42. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    I am not suggesting Federer will end the year over Nadal. I believe Nadal will end the year at 2 if he doesn't end the year at 1, and that Federer may be a distant 3rd or 4th.
     
  43. mango72

    mango72 Banned

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    Either way the points defense is moot since at the end of the year only points for that year will matter. Djokovic is most likely going to lose places in some spots too. He is unlikely to win Monte Carlo again, and very unlikely to repeat his post U.S Open run of this year. He is probably unlikely to make the Wimbledon final too. Nadal has places to gain points too, the whole first 2 months of the year, Wimbledon, even post U.S Open some maybe.
     
  44. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

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    Djokovic can gain up a lot of points if he makes the Indian Wells final and wins Miami, or visa versa. Nadal can only gain 400 points if he wins in Monte Carlo. If Nadal loses early during the hardcourt swing he could lose his 1st position to Djokovic. Djokovic will make the SF round at Wimbledon at least. He is very consistent on all surfaces, including his worst. Nadal has shown he struggles during the first week at Wimbledon, but if he gets past that hurdle and into the second week, he could win the whole thing. That would be the most points he could gain from one tournament, while Djokovic can gain points from a few Masters events. Djokovic is also very good during the back end of the year, and barring injury he should be able to defend a lot of those points.
     
  45. Chico

    Chico Banned

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    AO: Djokovic
    FO: Djokovic
    W: Murray
    USO: Djokovic

    For everything else there is mastercard.
     
  46. T-Noone

    T-Noone Professional

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    This probably seems crazy, but:
    AO: Djokovic
    FO: Djokovic
    W: Nadal
    Uso: Djokovic.

    I predict a really slow grass year.
     
  47. T-Noone

    T-Noone Professional

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    Ay pal, the whole point with "ending the year no. 1" means no discussion of "defending points," its just who wins the most throughout the year.
     
  48. surfvland

    surfvland Semi-Pro

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    AO Djoker
    FO NADZ
    SW 19 FED
    USO Djoker
     

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