Slams and rounds in which a new slam winner is guaranteed since 2000.

[mahesh69a]

So, for WTA, this AO 2023, there is no guarantee of a new slam winner (Azarenka or Rybakina will be in the Final and can/may win)

Here is the list of rounds in which a new slam winner is guranteed since 2000.

WTA
===

2004 FO - F
2004 USO - F
2008 FO - F
2010 FO - SF
2013 W - SF
2015 USO - F
2017 FO - QF
2017 USO - F
2018 AO - F
2019 FO - SF
2021 FO - SF
2021 USO - SF
2022 W - F

A sprinkling on new slam winners once in a while.


ATP
===

2002 FO - F
2003 FO - F
2003 W - QF
2004 FO - SF
2005 FO - F
2008 AO - F
2014 USO - F
2020 USO - QF
2022 USO - QF

This one shows the incredible dominance of the Big 3/4 between 2005-2020 and also highlights how much of an outlier the 2014 USO final between Cilic and Nishikori was.

 

[ollinger]

Well I'll be darned!!!!

 

[mahesh69a]

Update: For AO 23

For WTA, even though Sabalenka won and became a first time slam winner, as Rybakina (Wimbledon Champion) was in the Final, there was no guaranteed round.

Similarly, if the philosopher wins on Sunday, there is no guaranteed round as Djokovic reached the Final.