Slams players almost for sure don't win if someone else didn't lose one match

abmk

Bionic Poster
Stich and Gomez weren’t in their primes in general. With Stich you can say that he played his best clay court tennis that year with Gomez not so sure. Having your best result at a tournament and being at your best does not always go hand in hand, otherwise 2020 FO Nadal or Goran 2001 Wimbledon would be prime. Rafter in 1994 hadn’t even won a tournament. You can maybe excuse individual losses, but fact is the number of let’s say unnecessary losses are just too many to ignore the fact that Muster underperformed at the French.

I'm talking about the level only. That was Stich's best RG in terms of level. Gomez is debatable I agree.
Yeah, Rafter wasn't close to prime and that loss is not excusable IMO.
I do agree on the last part - too many losses.
 
Such as?

Muster lost at the French Open in the 1990s to Gomez, Sampras, Courier, Rafter, Stich, Kuerten, Mantilla and Lapentti, the latter being his last match when he had months of bad form. You talk like Muster was losing to mugs.
Sampras of all people saw the second week of RG more offen than Muster. Muster heavily underperformed at RG hence giving him av"Sure title" when he got bounced by a Serve and volley player in the 4 th round is quiet the reach.
 
Muster would have played Pioline, Rosset, and Kafelnikov had he gotten past Stich. Where is the serve and volleyer there? So being bounced by a serve and volley player post the Stich match would be no concern, as there wasn't one.
 

BillKid

Hall of Fame
This isn't just cases someone would have almost for sure beaten someone else in the final or the round they would have met given the match up. What are times someone was taken out (usually in a huge upset) and that player would have clearly reached the end or atleast this player and prevented them from winning otherwise, would not have been stopped in any other round either. Here are some fairly obvious cases to me.

1998 French- Sanchez Vicario, Seles beating Hingis. Seles beat Hingis in the semis in a pretty major upset as she had a 0-5 record vs Hingis going into that match. Even more amazing it was a pretty easy victory. Then in another pretty big upset, Seles fell to Sanchez Vicario in the final, even after her excellent semi final performance, and with her career I think it was 14-2 record vs Sanchezz at the time. Now I know it sounds like a contradiction to say Hingis would have for sure beaten Sanchez with her overwhelming head to head over her, given that I just listed two matches the player who had a lopsided losing record vs the other won, so why not another, LOL! For the record Hingis is 18-2 vs Sanchez lifetime, with 1 of the 2 losses being a 3 setter as a lowly ranked 15 year old. However to say anyone who has actually watched Hingis play Sanchez Vicario, you would know she was never beating her in such a big match at this stage of their career. It was a far worse and more hopeless match up for Sanchez than either Sanchez vs Seles, or Seles vs Hingis was, both which had a lot of deceptively close matches in some of the losses. As anyone who follows Hingis knows the only way to possibly beat her is to overpower her or attack her (Novotna), and Sanchez ain't ever going to do either one to Hingis. So not even on clay, not even at Roland Garros where Hingis seemed jinxed her whole career, and not even when Hingis was in arguably sort of bad form at the time. Just would never happen. If Seles did not take out Hingis for Sanchez Vicario, there is no chance at all Sanchez Vicario wins this RG, as she stands no chance to beat even a subpar Martina Hingis in the final. I would say if Seles lost in any round, but then again it is possible someone like Novotna or whoever takes out Hingis, and Sanchez beats them in the final, so specifically just if Seles loses to Hingis in the semis. The one thing we know for sure is Sanchez is the last one in the entire draw to beat Hingis probably of the round of 32 beyond.

1987 Wimbledon- Pat Cash, Peter Doohan beating Boris Becker. Becker seemed in excellent form. He absolutely owns Cash. This was one of the biggest upsets in Wimbledon history at the time. Looking through the draw I don't see anyway Becker does not reach Cash. Who is going to take him out, Slobodan Živojinović, way past his prime Jimmy Connors? I would say hardly even a miniscule chance, Becker is taken out before Cash if he doesn't lose in that mammoth upset to Doohan. And yeah I know some will say will say neither of those would be as much of an upset as Doohan, but lightning of that magnitude was only meant to strike once that event. And I would argue in fact Doohan is more likely to pull an upset of Becker since he is an unknown, while Becker played Zivojinovic 5 times and his 1 loss was in a match he retired in the match with a major injury, and played old Connors 6 times and won all 6, and this is now on grass, Becker's favorite surface. As for Becker vs Cash, well Cash has only win, 7-6 the final set, in Australia, on a hard court. Their other 3 matches were on grass, 2 at Wimbledon, including the very next year. All very easy Becker wins. I would say while Cash would have an outside shot, Becker would be the heavy favorite in a hypothetical semi final.

1990 Wimbledon- Zina Garrison, Martina Navratilova, Monica Seles, Steffi Graf. This ring sort of involves 4 players. Anyway Zina Garrison had a match point vs Seles in the quarters. If she converts, it is a Graf vs Seles semi final, which is a guaranteed Graf victory (Graf won 6-2, 6-1 and 6-1, 6-0 in their only 2 meetings at Wimbledon). Or if Zina does not take out Graf herself in the semis in a gigantic McNeil 94 level upset. Either of these 2 scenarios leads to a Graf vs Navratilova final. Which while it is not impossible Navratilova wins I very much doubt she does. She lost to Graf at both Wimbledon 88 and 89, and while both went to 3 sets, both were highly decisive wins in the end with a very lopsided 3rd set, and all 4 sets Graf won were easy sets. Even with Graf in subpar form at the time, and Martina in fact playing really well at this Wimbledon, I don't see a 33 year old Navratilova on bad knees stemming the tide at this point. Graf had only lost 1 of the previous 5 slams at that point too (the RG final vs Seles, and her last loss before that was the RG final to Sanchez a whole year before that) so her aura was not gone yet at that point, despite her already visibly diminishing play.

2009 French Open- Rafael Nadal, Robin Soderling, Roger Federer. This is one of the easiest ones ever. Both are familiar enough to everyone, I am sure everyone, even the biggest Federer diehards concede there is no way on gods green earth Roger beats Nadal in a hypothetical RG final. Nor is there anyway that Gonzalez or Davydenko (yes Davydenko has a decent record vs Nadal, on hard courts, this is clay and RG) is taking out Nadal, if Soderling does not do it.

1994 Wimbledon- Conchita Martinez, Lori McNeil, Steffi Gaf. Honestly this one is as easy as the 2009 French Open. Lori McNeil took out Steffi Graf in the 1st round of Wimbledon 94 in one of the biggest upsets ever. Obviously going through McNeil's draw there is no way Graf is losing to anyone else en route to Conchita Martinez in the semis. Nor is there anyway Conchita Martinez, with a lifetime 1-12 record vs Graf, and the big girls favorite whooping girl in slams, beating Graf on grass in the semis. She couldn't even do it vs Graf on clay 11 months later, coming in the best form of her career, totally dominating the clay circuit, and Graf missing the entire clay season injured/ill.

1994 Wimbledon- Conchita Martinez, Martina Navratilova, Jana Novotna. Another one from Conchita's Wimbledon win. Navratilova took out Novotna in a 3 set quarter final. Navratilova of course went on to lose to Conchita in the final. I am comfortable saying there is virtually no chance Novotna loses either Gigi Fernandez in the semis, or Conchita Martinez on grass in the final. Their career head to head is 4-1 Novotna, and this is grass, Jana's best surface by far and Conchita's worst (despite the massive, bizarre, fluke that her Wimbledon title was). Even if Chokevotna showed up at some point, she would still seal the win. Elder Navratilova owns Novotna (probably mostly mental, also Jana can't pass off the backhand side at all so struggles vs other serve and volleyers, even a way inferior player like Tauziat for instance), and Martinez owns elder Navratilova, so the results of those two match ups were no surprise, and very favorable for Martinez, as she avoided another player basically certain to have won over her.

2002 Australian Open- Jennifer Capriati, Monica Seles, Venus Williams. Seles scored her only win over Venus here, in a 3 set quarter final. Now it is worth noting when assessing this whole situation Venus did have a leg injury, although it wasn't as severe by the quarter final defeat as it was a few rounds earlier when it incurred, it was still present. Seles went on to lose to Hingis in the semis, and Hingis went on to lose to Capriati in the final, after having 4 match points in the 2nd set. Even with that, and their very competitive head to head history, I would say there is almost no chance she loses to declining/lost all confidence in big slam matches Hingis in the semis. And no way IMO she loses to Capriati in the final, when Jen is her pigeon (4-0 career record) and Capriati was not even playing well at this event. She played not only much better in the 2 slams she won, by a whole horde of one she didn't win in, particularly in 2001-2004. She basically won due to amazing fight, and Hingis's gigantic mental block in slams at this point; another reason I am pretty sure Venus beats Hingis in the semis as well. I just don't see Venus losing here if Seles does not score her only ever win over her in the semis, even with the legitimately present injury, even with her virtually tied career head to head with Hingis.

There are many other possible ones but these are some of the most obvious ones of all time that come to think for me. Will think of some other super obvious (for me) ones to post later. Come up with your own and let me know which of mine you agree with or some thoughts on them.
What if…
That’s not how sport works.
But anyway thank you, it’s still enjoyable to discuss about the good old time.
 

NedStark

Professional
We can never know for sure. Who's to say that Cash can't beat Becker at 1987 Wimbledon? Cash beat Connors there in straight sets, after losing to Connors at Queen's Club a few weeks earlier. Cash played the best tennis of his career at 1987 Wimbledon, and his performance against Lendl for large parts of the final was as good as McEnroe's in the 1984 Wimbledon final against Connors. In the second set of the 1987 Wimbledon final, Cash won the set 6-2 and didn't drop a point on his serve.
sorry for the 1987 wimbledon title you wanna hand to (my favorite player) Boris Becker. But 87 saw Boris in a little slump and cash's only win came in ...87! I am not that sure if Becker would have won that. 88 becker was clearly refreshed under the tutelage of Bob Brett his tennis was more netorientated and i was very confident that he could beat cash - which he did.
Cash in 1987 was red hot on serving and volleying and thus he was perfectly positioned to dismantle baseliners such as Wilander, Connors and Lendl. However, Becker with his big serve would have posed a different challenge altogether.
 

Thetouch

Professional
I can't see Lendl beating Gomez in RG 1990 when it's not even clear he makes the final at all. Lendl never reached the SF or final again after 1987. (By this logic Sampras wins the US Open 1999 too).

Wimbledon 1984: Becker vs. McEnroe - they would have met in the round of 16 had Becker not retired against Scanlon (provided he beat him). I am not saying 16 year old Becker beats GOATING McEnroe but it would have been the first time John experiencing and facing the soon to become strongest powerplayer for the next 6 years, especially on grass.

AO 1989: Edberg w.o. against Muster. Very likely Edberg beats Lendl in the semis and Mecir in the final.

RG 1989: As already mentioned Becker most likely beats Chang.

US Open 1990: I always thought Becker beats Sampras in the final. This is neither slump 1993 Becker nor dominating mid 90s Sampras yet.

Wimbledon 1992: I can actually see Agassi beating Sampras in a final, just this one time. Sampras wasn't still there yet, hence why he couldn't beat Goran but did 3 more times later when Goran got better too. The pressure would be on both but more so on Sampras since nobody thought Agassi would even make it that far.

US Open 1998: Sampras loses to Rafter after leading him 2:1 in sets and then gets injured. I think it's very likely he beats Philippoussis.

US Open 2001: Agassi most likely wins it, if it was't for facing Sampras.
 
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NAS

Hall of Fame
I can't see Lendl beating Gomez in RG 1990 when it's not even clear he makes the final at all. Lendl never reached the SF or final again after 1987. (By this logic Sampras wins the US Open 1999 too).

Wimbledon 1984: Becker vs. McEnroe - they would have met in the round of 16 had Becker not retired against Scanlon (provided he beat him). I am not saying 16 year old Becker beats GOATING McEnroe but it would have been the first time John experiencing and facing the soon to become strongest powerplayer for the next 6 years, especially on grass.

AO 1989: Edberg w.o. against Muster. Very likely Edberg beats Lendl in the semis and Mecir in the final.

RG 1989: As already mentioned Becker most likely beats Chang.

US Open 1990: I always thought Becker beats Sampras in the final. This is neither slump 1993 Becker nor dominating mid 90s Sampras yet.

Wimbledon 1992: I can actually see Agassi beating Sampras in a final, just this one time. Sampras wasn't still there yet, hence why he couldn't beat Goran but did 3 more times later when Goran got better too. The pressure would be on both but more so on Sampras since nobody thought Agassi would even make it that far.

US Open 1998: Sampras loses to Rafter after leading him 2:1 in sets and then gets injured. I think it's very likely he beats Philippoussis.

US Open 2001: Agassi most likely wins it, if it was't for facing Sampras.
AO 1989 is not sure shot as Lendl was in good form, neither is us open 2001 if Agassi beat Sampras in five, then he has to face Safin and Hewitt after super Saturday, again not a sure shot thing.
Us open 1998 is obvious one if Sampras beat Rafter , of course you are getting new champ like Rafa beat Novak in 2018 semi we are getting some new one.
Point of the thread is, Match should be the one which may cause change in result not clear cut change because you can make if and but in every match where slam champion was involved
 

NedStark

Professional
Wimbledon 1992: I can actually see Agassi beating Sampras in a final, just this one time. Sampras wasn't still there yet, hence why he couldn't beat Goran but did 3 more times later when Goran got better too. The pressure would be on both but more so on Sampras since nobody thought Agassi would even make it that far.
OTOH, Sampras usually got juiced when playing Agassi. Plus he had more tools to pressure Agassi’s service games than Goran - note that Agassi stayed back on serves.
 
Federer was not good at all (for him) at Wimbledon 2016, and around that time in general. Plus I think he had a back injury. I would definitely back Murray in that final if I had to call, despite his mostly abysmal record vs Federer in big matches.

I agree Sampras probably goes on to win all 4 of those slams you mentioned if he isn't taken out. Wimbledon 96 the most obvious, and very easily (he was taken out by the eventual pretty easy champion himself of course). But I had to wager a very good shot at all 4, he might be taken out along the way somewhere in 1 of the 4, but don't think he loses to the eventual winner in any of them.
 

Mustard

Bionic Poster
Federer was not good at all (for him) at Wimbledon 2016, and around that time in general. Plus I think he had a back injury.
Federer had a back injury in Madrid (had to pull out) and in Rome, and the knee injury was reaggravated at Wimbledon, meaning another knee surgery that July. He had already had knee surgery in early February 2016 after that slip in the bath incident following his loss to Djokovic at the 2016 Australian Open.
 

NedStark

Professional
Guys, don’t forget Safin - Sampras AO 2002 4R.

No way in hell Thomas Johansson would beat Sampras in a slam final.

Others:
Wimbledon & USO 1974: What if Rosewall failed to pull off his miracle runs - now Connors would have had to face Newcombe or Smith, both of whom had Connors’ number in 1974.

Wimbledon 1992: Becker beating Agassi OR Sampras beating Ivanisevic. Either Pete or Boris would have likely nailed the title.
 
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Guys, don’t forget Safin - Sampras AO 2002 4R.

No way in hell Thomas Johansson would beat Sampras in a slam final.

Others:
Wimbledon & USO 1974: What if Rosewall failed to pull off his miracle runs - now Connors would have had to face Newcombe or Smith, both of whom had Connors’ number in 1974.

Wimbledon 1992: Becker beating Agassi OR Sampras beating Ivanisevic. Either Pete or Boris would have likely nailed the title.
Becker 100% beats old McEnroe in the semis.

I don't know if it is 100% he beats Ivanisevic in the finals. 2 years earlier he played Ivanisevic in the semis when Ivanisevic was much weaker, and Becker clearly stronger, and won in 4 sets, with a 4th set tiebreaker. 2 years later he would play Ivanisevic in the semis and be destroyed. Considering 92 was a very bad year for Becker, I wouldn't even neccessarily say he was better in 92 than 94, although Ivanisevic was probably even stronger in 94 than 92. Ivanisevic was a first time finalist though and did underperform (IMO) vs Agassi, but still wouldn't put it at a sure thing. Their career head to head is 10-9 Becker btw.

As for Sampras, yeah I think he very likely beats Agassi in the final.

Totally agree on Sampras winning Australian Open 2002. His only real threat would be Haas in the semis, not Johansson in the finals. And considering Haas re injured his shoulder after the 3rd set in the semis, Sampras literally only has to win 1 of the first 3 sets in the semis anyway, so seems pretty sure there too.

I agree Connors probably does not win Wimbledon 74 if he has to play Newcombe imparticular, and possibly Smith. Despite how badly he destroyed Rosewall (who beat both) in the final. Don't know if it I would put it at 100%, as Newcombe had to play super hard and well to beat Connors on his own home turf in Australia 75, but Connors would still have a tough task beating either.
 
100%? When they met at the 1992 Australian Open, where Becker was the reigning champion, McEnroe rolled back the years and beat Becker 6-4, 6-3, 7-5.

Yes but he was garbage vs Agassi in the semis, and this is grass, not a slow hard court. I still stand by what I said. OK move it to 90% but still very likely. The hypothetical final vs Ivanisevic is quite 50-50 though IMO.
 

NedStark

Professional
Ivanisevic was a first time finalist though and did underperform (IMO) vs Agassi, but still wouldn't put it at a sure thing. Their career head to head is 10-9 Becker btw.
Their H2H was like 10-6 until after 1996, then Goran won all of their last matches. But, Becker had clear advantage in final matches. Likely Goran would bungle his first final.

Totally agree on Sampras winning Australian Open 2002. His only real threat would be Haas in the semis, not Johansson in the finals. And considering Haas re injured his shoulder after the 3rd set in the semis, Sampras literally only has to win 1 of the first 3 sets in the semis anyway, so seems pretty sure there too.
The impact on Sampras career would be very interesting. In real life he retired by the end of that year - but now he would have had an earlier Djokovic 2018 moment.
 
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buscemi

Hall of Fame
What if Kuerten didn't lose to Medvedev in the 1999 French QF? He was 4-0 against Meligeni, with all matches on clay. Then, we all know how Agassi looked in the first two sets of the final before turning it on and Medvedev capitulating. With Kuerten's experience winning the 1997 French final, I don't see him losing a two set lead, assuming a similar start.
 
What if Kuerten didn't lose to Medvedev in the 1999 French QF? He was 4-0 against Meligeni, with all matches on clay. Then, we all know how Agassi looked in the first two sets of the final before turning it on and Medvedev capitulating. With Kuerten's experience winning the 1997 French final, I don't see him losing a two set lead, assuming a similar start.

100% agree there. Don't see Agassi beating Kuerten on clay at all. I don't care that he beat him at Wimbledon in straight sets (grass, which is practically cows land for Kuerten, he did well to be in the quarters) weeks later.
 

HBK4life

Hall of Fame
100% agree there. Don't see Agassi beating Kuerten on clay at all. I don't care that he beat him at Wimbledon in straight sets (grass, which is practically cows land for Kuerten, he did well to be in the quarters) weeks later.
I don’t think people saw him beating the defending champion but he did. Not saying you are wrong but something magically touched Agassi in that tournament.
 
I don’t think people saw him beating the defending champion but he did. Not saying you are wrong but something magically touched Agassi in that tournament.

Kuerten of 99-2001 >>> any version of Moya on clay.

Agassi was also much better in the round of 16 match vs Moya (even her slightly slow start in that was miles ahead of his first 2 sets in the final) than the final too. And lastly the crowd got into it and clearly unnerved Moya, and his level dropped significantly. Kuerten has never been the type who is impacted negatively by crowds ever. I also gave Agassi a real chance before that match, something like 35-40%, still was picking him to lose as you can tell by my sub 50% number, but that is much more than I would have given him going into the hypothetical final vs Kuerten who was having a great year on clay this year.

I see your point, though and I guess anything is possible, but can't see Agassi with the same awful 2 sets he played in the actual final, beating Kuerten on clay. It wasn't a windy day like the quarters so Kuerten would not play half as badly as he did in his quarter final vs Medvedev, who btw played much better overall that day too (taking into account the entire match) than he did in the final.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Kuerten of 99-2001 >>> any version of Moya on clay.

Agassi was also much better in the round of 16 match vs Moya (even her slightly slow start in that was miles ahead of his first 2 sets in the final) than the final too. And lastly the crowd got into it and clearly unnerved Moya, and his level dropped significantly. Kuerten has never been the type who is impacted negatively by crowds ever. I also gave Agassi a real chance before that match, something like 35-40%, still was picking him to lose as you can tell by my sub 50% number, but that is much more than I would have given him going into the hypothetical final vs Kuerten who was having a great year on clay this year.

I see your point, though and I guess anything is possible, but can't see Agassi with the same awful 2 sets he played in the actual final, beating Kuerten on clay. It wasn't a windy day like the quarters so Kuerten would not play half as badly as he did in his quarter final vs Medvedev, who btw played much better overall that day too (taking into account the entire match) than he did in the final.

oh, it was pretty windy in the first 2 sets of the RG 99 final. That's big part of why Agassi was struggling. But Andrei Medvedev was playing like it was almost nothing, crazy stuff.
 
oh, it was pretty windy in the first 2 sets of the RG 99 final. That's big part of why Agassi was struggling. But Andrei Medvedev was playing like it was almost nothing, crazy stuff.

Hmm ok, I had forgotten that I guess. I do remember the quarter final being quite windy and it badly affecting Kuerten. Medvedev was extrremely sharp, so is obviously not affected by wind one bit, and the first 2 sets of the final would indicate that as well. I guess he is unlucky the wind died down in the final and removed his advantage.
 

abmk

Bionic Poster
Hmm ok, I had forgotten that I guess. I do remember the quarter final being quite windy and it badly affecting Kuerten. Medvedev was extrremely sharp, so is obviously not affected by wind one bit, and the first 2 sets of the final would indicate that as well. I guess he is unlucky the wind died down in the final and removed his advantage.

yes.
But then Agassi was the one who talked Medvedev out of retirement a few weeks ago. Imagine if he had got beat by him in the RG 99 final. That would have have hurt.
 
yes.
But then Agassi was the one who talked Medvedev out of retirement a few weeks ago. Imagine if he had got beat by him in the RG 99 final. That would have have hurt.

I loved the spirit of both guys in that match. It was a hard match, as Medvedev coming back to tennis as a former promising/much hyped young star who fell off, and everyone assumed them would win a slam at some point (was even given a good shot at winning RG 94 going in), and winning would have been incredible. But most wanted to see Agassi have that incredible completion of his Career Grand Slam at that point, after sinking to the depths in 97, and starting a big comeback in 98. You wanted to see both win so much, and hated to see either lose. Medvedev was such a gracious loser though, in what must have been a painful defeat after crushing the first 2 sets. And Agassi was a very gracious winner.
 
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